The role of oil price shocks on China's real exchange rate

This paper investigates to what extent the oil price shock and three other types of underlying macroeconomic shocks impact the trend movements of China's real exchange rate. By constructing a four-dimensional structural VAR model, the results suggest that real oil price shocks would lead to a minor appreciation of the long-term real exchange rate due to China's lesser dependence on imported oil than its trading partners included in the RMB basket peg regime and rigorous government energy regulations. The real shocks, as opposed to nominal shocks, are found to be dominant in the variations of the real exchange rate.     

国际油价波动对江苏经济影响的实证分析

近年来国际原油价格呈现持续上升态势,国际油价的波动尤其是大幅上扬,深刻影响着世界各地的经济。文章应用自回归分布滞后模型,定量分析了国际油价波动与江苏主要宏观经济变量波动之间的关系,探讨了国际油价波动对江苏经济的整体影响。     

高油价时代的中国石油安全

国际石油价格的高企给我国石油安全带来巨大影响,为了应对高油价的挑战,要充分发挥能源消费大国之间的对话和合作,谋求我国在国际石油定价的话语权;要建立资源节约型的经济结构,减少对石油资源的依赖;要加强自主运输能力,保障运输通道安全。     

Promoting exports: the role of inward FDI in China

Since the late 1970s, exports and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in China have risen dramatically under the open-door policy. The critical role of FDI in China's exports may be indicated by the fact that exports by foreign affiliates in China in 1998 were US$81 billion, comprising 44% of China's total exports in that year. While there is considerable evidence on the FDI export linkage in China, systematically empirical analyses have been limited. This paper investigates the issue using panel data at the provincial level in the period of 1986–1997. The findings support the widely held belief that increased levels of FDI positively affect provincial manufacturing export performance.     

Heterogeneity and the FDI versus export decision of Japanese manufacturers

We investigate whether productivity differences explain why some manufacturers sell only to the domestic market while others serve foreign markets through exports and/or FDI. When overseas production offers no cost advantages, our model predicts that investors should be more productive than exporters. An extension allowing for low-cost foreign production can reverse this prediction. Data for 1070 large Japanese firms reveal that firms that invest abroad and export are more productive than firms that just export. Among overseas investors, more productive firms span a wider range of host-country income levels. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 448–467.     

房价对城市经济发展水平的理论影响分析

本文采用四象限模型来分析房价对城市经济发展水平的理论影响,得到了相应的研究成果,对于有关部门进行房地产业宏观调控、制定城市经济发展战略以及促进房地产业和城市经济良好发展等都具有重要的参考价值。     

The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

China’s dependence on oil imports has greatly increased in recent years. Due to the rapid expansion of global trade, exporting plays an important role in the Chinese economy. This paper uses monthly data from January 2005 to April 2021 to examine the short- and long-term effects of oil price increases and decreases on China’s exports. Our empirical analyses are based on the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, which can effectively capture asymmetric relations. The empirical results provide significant evidence of asymmetry, such that oil price increases have significantly larger effects than oil price decreases in the long term. Interestingly, we find that energy-intensive exports and some specific sectors (e.g., crude fertilizers, petroleum products, and organic chemicals) benefit from oil price increases. We also observe recent declines in the coal and coke sector following positive oil price shocks due to restrictions on coal consumption.     

The impacts of food safety standards on China's tea exports

There have been growing concerns about the effects of food safety standards on agricultural trade throughout the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of food safety standards on tea exports from China, the world′s largest tea producer and exporter. To achieve this objective, the paper discusses the trends and nature of China′s tea production and export, analyzes changes on tea safety standards indicated by Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures, Maximum Residual Limit (MRL) of pesticides and the coverage of tea safety standards concerning regulatory pesticides in major importing countries, and quantitatively estimates the impacts of food safety standards on China′s tea export based on a gravity model. The results show that the MRL of pesticides (e.g., endosulfan, fenvalerate and flucythrinate) imposed by importing countries have significantly affected China′s tea exports. The results also show that China′s tea exports have been significantly restricted when importing countries increase coverage of tea safety standards concerning regulatory pesticides.     

出口转内销战略可行性分析

出口转内销是我国产业转型和外向型企业发展转型的重要战略选择,但该战略的现实可行性如何呢?在文献回顾基础上,本文对取自于东莞178家企业的调研数据和相关二手数据予以结合分析,发现:出口转内销的面临的内部制约和外部制约呈现较强刚性,内销战略因缺乏外部环境和企业内部能力的必要支撑从而不可行。     

The “news view” of economic fluctuations: Evidence from aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data

This paper uses aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data to explore the properties of the joint behavior of stock prices and total factor productivity (TFP) with the aim of highlighting data patterns that are useful for evaluating business cycle theories. The approach used follows that presented in [Beaudry, P., Portier, F., 2004. News, stock prices and economic fluctuations. Working paper 10548. NBER]. The main findings are that (i) in both Japan and the US, innovations in stock prices that are contemporaneously orthogonal to TFP precede most of the long-run movements in total factor productivity and (ii) such stock prices innovations do not affect US sectoral TFPs contemporaneously, but do precede TFP increases in those sectors that are driving US TFP growth, namely durable goods, and among them equipment sectors. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 635–652.     

房地产上市公司股价影响因素实证分析

近年来,在持续的房地产调控政策影响下,我国商品房市场开始出现成交量大幅下滑,房价逐步松动下滑的现象。但在此期间,房地产上市公司股票价格不仅强于大盘走势,而且其波动幅度也高于房地产销售价格指数。为此,本文选择房地产上市公司股票价格指数为因变量,选择上证综指、发电量增长率、CPI、人民币贷款利率、房地产价格指数五个因素指标为自变量进行多元回归统计建模,模型检验结果表明,房地产上市公司股价波动除具有一般金融资产价格波动的系统性、集聚性等特点外,还具有与人民币贷款利率和房屋销售价格指数负相关的特点。受宏观调控政策的持续影响,中国当前房地产市场出现一定程度的扭曲,实体经济增长对房地产上市公司股价的影响不显著。     

房价波动对居民消费影响分析

近十年来,房地产价格不断上涨,而居民消费在国内生产总值中的占比却不升反降。这说明和大多外国学者研究得出的结究有所不同,在我国,房地产价格上涨对居民消费出支主要表现为挤出效应。这里本文对房价波动对居民消费影响进行深入分析,并提出相关有助于发挥房地产价格财富效应,从而带动国家经济增长的建议与对策。     

The effect of exchange rate changes on Japanese consumption exports

This paper investigates how exchange rates affect Japanese exports. This is difficult because many of Japan's exports are used to produce goods for re-export. An appreciation in the importing country that decreases exports can decrease its imported inputs from Japan. To avoid this bias we examine consumption exports. Using a panel dataset of Japan's consumption exports to 17 countries over the 1988–2009 period, we find exchange rate elasticities of about one. These results indicate that the large swings in the value of the yen over the last decade have caused large swings in the volume of Japanese exports.     

人民币利率、汇率波动对我国价格水平影响的比较研究

随着我国利率市场化改革和汇率体制改革的深入,金融市场的利率水平和人民币汇率水平对商品价格的影响越来越显著。通过建立结构向量自回归SVAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数分析,比较分析了利率、汇率变动对我国几个主要的商品价格指数的影响后发现,当前利率变动对价格的影响要强于汇率,人民币升值在短期对价格有抑制作用,但是在中期反而有促进作用。利率和汇率变动对价格的影响时间有限,在长期,价格还是会回到初始水平。     

中国楼市危机的根本出路:建立购买者对房价的公信度

购房者对现实房价的不信任是楼市在各级政府相继出台政策后依然低迷的根本原因。要解决楼市低迷问题,需建立购房者对房价的公信度,科学核定楼房综合建安成本及利润值。这也是彻底解决政府在房屋开发中的职能定位问题和控制房地产开发过程中各种腐败行为的根本途径。     

农产品价格波动对农民收入的影响

随着我国农业政策的完善,政府通过国家宏观调控对农产品价格进行了一定的调整,确保了农民收入的提高。影响农产品价格和农民收入的因素有很多,其中主要在于农业生产技术和生产模式。因此,为了进一步明确农产品波动对农民收入的影响,也为了寻求最好的方案来解决我国农民收入较低的现状,文章分析了投入产出模型结构,并提出了农产品波动与农民收入之间的具体关系式。通过此关系式,提出了增加我国农民收入的主要途径。     

基于需求角度房地产价格影响因素的实证分析

本文从需求角度分析影响房价的各因素,包括经济发展水平、城镇化水平、城镇居民收入水平和通货膨胀等,并选取一系列房地产价格的影响指标在2001-2010年的十年数据,建立31个省市房价的多种面板数据模型。对不同模型间进行选择和比较,得出最佳模型为个体固定效应模型,力图揭示各选取因素是否能够对房地产价格产生显著影响,从而确定需求层面上房价的影响因素,以及得出相应建议。     

利率调整对股票价格的短长期效应研究

股票市场在资本市场中扮演重要角色,基准利率的利率调整是货币当局调控股票市场的重要工具。本文从定性和定量两个角度研究基准利率的利率调整对股票价格变动的短长期影响。本文采用Granger因果检验对存款基准利率的调整与上证指数的变动的关系进行研究,结果发现二者不存在因果关系。     

农业国际竞争力评价指标体系与评价模型研究

如何测评农业国际竞争力是竞争力研究的薄弱领域，也是一个难点。本文首先对农业国际竞争力进行了定义，然后运用经济学、管理学和统计学的基本理论和方法，依据一定的原则，设置出农业国际竞争力评价指标体系，该指标体系由显示竞争力、产品竞争力、要素竞争力和环境竞争力4个部分构成，进一步分解为40个具体指标。在讨论了指标权重确定和数据标准化方法的基础上，提出了农业国际竞争力的评价模型。