Estimating bivariate yield distributions and crop insurance premiums using nonparametric methods

Modelling crop yield distribution is crucial in crop insurance premium setting. The correlation between different crop yields due to rotations or systemic risks requires estimation of joint yield distribution for multiple crops. In this article, we apply a nonparametric method to estimate bivariate yield distributions using farm-level yield data of wheat and corn in Shandong Province in China. Then, the simulated yields are used to evaluate the expected indemnity of one traditional and one hypothetical crop insurance programme. Our results reveal that the nonparametric bivariate method is very flexible in shaping the yield probability density functions to estimate local idiosyncrasies and correlation between two crops. It is also feasible to simulate the nonparametric yield distributions at a satisfying level of accuracy. The simulation results show that the hypothetical two-crop insurance contract can be more affordable to farmers than traditional individual crop insurance contracts.     

人工智能技术对制造业资本溢价与技能溢价影响的区域异质性研究

人工智能技术会影响资本溢价和技能溢价的观点在国际上已经达成共识,但没有形成统一的研究结论。在我国劳动收入份额持续走低的形势下,有必要探讨人工智能技术对资本溢价和技能溢价带来的影响。文章聚焦我国制造业,构建资本溢价和技能溢价的内生模型,数理演绎人工智能技术对二者的影响机制,并根据我国情势分别对人工智能技术应用先发地区和后发地区的资本溢价和技能溢价走势提出命题,基于我国制造业1993-2019年的省际数据,应用四方程标准化供给面系统法进行了实证检验,进一步地,区分先发地区和后发地区对人工智能技术影响资本溢价和技能溢价的直接效应和偏效应进行了回归分析。研究结果表明：先发地区资本溢价呈微降趋势,技能溢价呈现显著极化态势；后发地区资本溢价呈上升趋势,技能溢价处于”U”型低谷区。相较于后发地区,先发地区资本溢价和技能溢价对人工智能技术的反应更敏感、作用效果更强,且人工智能技术可以通过要素结构、技术效率结构缓解资本溢价水平；人工智能技术可以通过劳动结构、技能效率结构增强技能溢价水平。     

Premium auctions and risk preferences

In a premium auction, the seller offers some “payback”, called premium, to a set of high bidders at the end of the auction. This paper investigates how the performance of such premium tactics is related to the bidders? risk preferences. We analyze a two-stage English premium auction model with symmetric interdependent values, in which the bidders may be risk averse or risk preferring. Upon establishing the existence and uniqueness of a symmetric equilibrium, we show that the premium causes the expected revenue to increase in the bidders? risk tolerance. A “net-premium effect” is key to this result.     

Impact of the GST and Wine Tax Reform on Australia’s Wine Industry: A CGE Analysis

This study analyses the impacts of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) introduced on 1 July 2000, and the associated wine tax reform, on both the premium and non‐premium segments of the grape and wine industry using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. Through input cost reductions, the grape and wine industry is projected to gain from the GST tax package. Thus the industry can still gain even though wine consumption is taxed a little more heavily after than before the introduction of the GST. This is particularly so for the export‐oriented premium wine segment. A switch from the current ad valorem to a revenue‐neutral volumetric tax on wine under the GST is shown also to favour the premium segment of the industry, but at the expense of the non‐premium segment.     

Trade liberalization and the wage–skill premium: Evidence from Vietnamese manufacturing

This paper examines the wage–skill premium in Vietnamese manufacturing since the reform programme. The effects of tariff reductions on the wage–skill premium are analyzed in the presence of exporting opportunities, foreign investment, and research and development. The findings with firm‐level data reveal that a 10‐ percentage point fall in output tariffs is associated with a 4 percent increase in the wage–skill premium. The wage–skill premium in foreign‐invested enterprises is 40 percent higher than that of domestic enterprises. Trade liberalization influences the wage–skill premium in the presence of foreign ownership and R&D, while its impact on the skill premium only works through exporting.     

Market Instability and Revision Error in Risk Premium

This paper provides a theory and evidence that the risk premium puzzle is viewed as a phenomenon pertaining to the unstable foreign exchange market. In an unstable market, revision error uncompensated by an initial risk premium accrues due to consumer expectation revision about the ex ante uncertainty of the exchange rate. The risk premium widely deviates from its initial level, depending on the frequency of the consumer expectation revision and the degree of risk aversion. Subsequent evidence shows the existence of the revision errors for the risk premium during the Asian currency crisis and the recent financial crisis periods.     

NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT UNDER MLB FINAL‐OFFER SALARY ARBITRATION SYSTEM

This paper provides a detailed analysis of negotiated salaries under Major League Baseball's final‐offer arbitration process using data from the 2007–2010 seasons. There is a wage premium of 25% for hitters and 14% for pitchers filing for arbitration. Interestingly, there is an additional premium for exchanging offers for hitters but not for pitchers. The additional premium in salary for hitters who exchange offers with their clubs amounts to 7%. (JEL J31, J52)     

State-uncertainty preferences and the risk premium in the exchange rate market

This paper shows that state-uncertainty preferences help to explain the observed exchange rate risk premium. In the framework of Lucas (1982) economy, state-uncertainty preferences amount to assuming that a given level of consumption will yield a higher level of utility the lower is the level of uncertainty perceived by consumers. Under these preferences we can distinguish between two factors driving the exchange rate risk premium: “macroeconomic risk” and “the risk associated with variation in the private agents' perception on the level of uncertainty”. Empirical evidence from three main European economies in the transition period to the euro provides empirical support for the model. The model is more successful in accounting for the observed currency risk premium than models with more standard preferences, and the general perception of risk by private agents is shown to be a more important determinant of risk premium than macroeconomic uncertainty.     

企业异质性、出口对工资溢价的影响——基于中国工业企业微观数据的经验证据

本文以企业异质性理论为基础，揭示了企业异质性、出口对工资溢价的影响机理。基于中国工业企业微观数据，对企业异质性、出口对工资溢价的影响进行了实证检验。研究结果表明：(1)企业异质性对工资溢价有显著的影响。其中企业创新能力、企业生产率、资本密集度与技术密集度、企业绩效对工资溢价有显著的正向影响，企业创新能力越强、生产率水平越高、绩效越好，其工资溢价越明显。(2)出口、出口补贴能够带来显著的工资溢价，工资溢价与出口密集度、出口补贴强度呈倒U型关系。(3)人力资本(员工受教育水平、职称、技能)对工资溢价有显著的正向影响。人力资本水平越高，其工资溢价越明显。此外，大型企业、中央直属企业、外资企业、沿海企业均存在明显的工资溢价。这一研究结果有着重要的政策启示。     

Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles

There are two unresolved puzzles in the foreign exchange literature. The unbiasedness puzzle – the finding of a marked difference in the conclusion about the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis depending on whether the hypothesis is tested using the forward rate equation or forward premium equation, and the forward premium puzzle – the fact that more often than not the forward premium incorrectly predicts the direction of the subsequent change in the spot rate. This paper resolves both puzzles.     

Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia

Why do risk premia vary over time? We examine this problem theoretically and empirically by studying the effect of market belief on risk premia. Individual belief is taken as a fundamental primitive state variable. Market belief is observable; it is central to the empirical evaluation and we show how to measure it. Our asset pricing model is familiar from the noisy REE literature but we adapt it to an economy with diverse beliefs. We derive equilibrium asset prices and implied risk premium. Our approach permits a closed form solution of prices; hence we trace the exact effect of market belief on the time variability of asset prices and risk premia. We test empirically the theoretical conclusions. Our main result is that, above the effect of business cycles on risk premia, fluctuations in market belief have significant independent effect on the time variability of risk premia. We study the premia on long positions in Federal Funds Futures, 3- and 6-month Treasury Bills (T-Bills). The annual mean risk premium on holding such assets for 1?C12?months is about 40?C60 basis points and we find that, on average, the component of market belief in the risk premium exceeds 50% of the mean. Since time variability of market belief is large, this component frequently exceeds 50% of the mean premium. This component is larger the shorter is the holding period of an asset and it dominates the premium for very short holding returns of less than 2?months. As to the structure of the premium we show that when the market holds abnormally favorable belief about the future payoff of an asset the market views the long position as less risky hence the risk premium on that asset declines. More generally, periods of market optimism (i.e. ??bull?? markets) are shown to be periods when the market risk premium is low while in periods of pessimism (i.e. ??bear?? markets) the market??s risk premium is high. Fluctuations in risk premia are thus inversely related to the degree of market optimism about future prospects of asset payoffs. This effect is strong and economically very significant.     

The NBA and the influx of international basketball players

The determinants of salaries for professional athletes in the National Basketball Association (NBA) are examined to investigate how international athletes have fared relative to athletes trained in the United States. It is found that international basketball players were paid a large premium above other players of similar skills and characteristics for the 1996–97 and 1997–98 seasons, after which the premium disappeared. This temporary premium is likely attributable to a?‘winner's curse’?experienced by NBA teams before investing significant resources in scouting and evaluating international players.     

Do long-term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland

This article investigates the impact of long-term interest rates on macroeconomic variables in a small open economy. It shows that the time-varying term premium stabilizes GDP without affecting significantly inflation volatility in Poland – a typical open economy with flexible exchange rate. This conclusion is drawn from an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which segmented asset markets and imperfect asset substitutability give rise to the time-varying term premium in the long-term interest rate. Furthermore, the impulse response analysis of the model reveals that the term premium stabilizes GDP when the small economy is hit by shocks that are absent in closed economy models (country risk premium and export preference) which points to the different impact of the term premium on relatively close (large) and open (small) economies.     

Location matters: Estimating cluster premiums for prominent modern artists

This paper shows that ‘location matters’ in terms of premiums on creative clusters and peak ages. The analysis is based on the 214 most prominent modern visual artists born 1850-1945 and the art clusters of Paris and New York. Auction records of the past 20 years are used to estimate the value of artworks over an artist's career. The overall cluster premium for paintings produced in Paris and New York is found to be 11% and 43%, respectively; paintings made in Paris during the First World War have a premium of 14% while those produced between 1946 and 1975 have a premium of 27%. New York offers premiums for paintings produced there for all periods after the First World War, peaking at 74% between 1946 and 1975. When decomposing this premium, we find that quality rather than quantity of artists in the location is driving the results. It is argued that artists working in a cluster location reach a peak in the age-price profile of their work significantly earlier than artists working elsewhere.     

The Shrinking Earnings Premium for University Graduates in Hong Kong: The Effect of Quantity or Quality?

In 1989, the Hong Kong government embarked on a program to increase the provision of first-year first-degree places. The expansion of tertiary education represents a large and exogenous increase in the supply of university graduates to the territory. This article measures the labor market effects of the expansion program by studying the changes in earnings premium for university graduates. Two alternative hypotheses—crowding and quality effects—are identified to explain why the earnings premium shrank. The results support the view that the declining quality of university graduates is the prime candidate for the declining earnings premium. (JEL J31 , I28 , J18 )     

COMMON FACTORS OF THE EXCHANGE RISK PREMIUM IN EMERGING EUROPEAN MARKETS

Existing empirical evidence suggests that the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity condition may not hold due to an exchange risk premium. For a panel dataset of eleven emerging European economies we decompose this exchange risk premium into an idiosyncratic (country‐specific) element and a common factor using a principal components approach. We present evidence of stationary idiosyncratic and common factors. This result leads to the conclusion of a stationary risk premium for these countries, which is consistent with previous studies often documenting a stationary premium in advanced countries. Furthermore, we report that the variation in the premium is largely attributable to a common factor influenced by economic developments in the United States.     

中国上市公司A股和H股价差的实证研究

本文从实证角度,详细描述了截止2007年12月31日51家AH股上市公司自上市以来的价差变化趋势,并从公司、市场、利率、投资者、重大政策多个角度深入分析了AH股价差的影响因素。实证结果表明:同一上市公司的A股对H股普遍存在溢价现象,并且AH股价差在考察区间呈先上升后下降的趋势;流动性假说和信息不对称假说对AH股价差具有较强的解释力;两地的市场波动及利率变化对AH股价差具有显著的影响,而投资者结构和公司治理结构对AH股价差的作用不显著;在控制了市场波动等因素的影响之后,股权分置改革、QDII和港股直通车政策本身对AH股价差并没有显著影响。本文的研究成果进一步证明,两地股票市场分割以及内地资本流动的限制是造成AH股价差的根源。     

Trade liberalization and the inter-industry wage premia: the missingf role of productivity

The literature concerning the effect of tariffs on the inter-industry wage premium has not addressed the role of total factor productivity (TFP) in determining both the wage premium and tariffs. This omission not only overlooks an important determinant of wage premium but also invalidates the use of the pre-reform tariff level as an instrument for the change in tariffs. Based on an analysis of Colombian data, I find that including TFP in the estimated model of the effects of tariffs on the wage premium leads to a 41% decrease in the effect of tariffs on the inter-industry wage premium relative to the model that omits TFP. More specifically, a 10 percentage point decrease in tariffs reduces the wage premium by 1.01%, whereas a 10% increase in TFP raise wage premium by 1.6%. This finding suggests the importance of using policies that boost productivity to offset the effect of tariffs on the wage premium.     

A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

This paper defines the concepts of indirect and direct risk premium effects and analyzes their properties in an exchange rate model. In the model, these effects are endogenously determined in a rational expectations equilibrium. For the effect of an interest rate shock, they have the opposite signs and the indirect risk premium effect can dominate the direct risk premium effect under reasonable parameters. This means that domestic short‐term bonds and foreign bonds are complements in the model even though domestic long‐term bonds and foreign bonds are substitutes. This model, focusing on the indirect risk premium effect and on the term structure of interest rates, can be combined with a small sample bias approach to explain stylized facts about the forward premium anomaly, which is found for short‐term interest rates, but not for long‐term interest rates.     

Expectations and the Black Market Premium

The purpose of this paper is to gain a better understanding of the black market premium—the percentage differential between the black market and the official exchange rate. Tests are used to see whether the black market premium responds to variations in expectations about the official exchange rate in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. Expectations of devaluation do cause movements in the black market premium for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico but this behavior is not observed for Colombia. Colombian economic agents seem less sensitive to expected returns. This perhaps explains the relatively flat black market premium series observed for Colombia.