气候变暖的第一影响因素及我国的应对

全球气候变暖已是人们逐渐接受的事实,由于大气中二氧化碳等气体含量的升高引起的温室效应是导致全球气温变暖的显著原因。经过统计分析发现,大气中碳含量的增加与全球森林面积减少、化石能源燃烧增加的碳排放高度相关,但年均0.4%增速的大气中的碳含量是与按年均0.2%速度递减的全球森林面积存在显著的统计上的因果关系,乱砍滥伐、开发耕地等导致的全球森林面积的减少是大气中二氧化碳含量增加的格兰杰因果关系原因,从而构成全球变暖的第一影响因素。二氧化碳排放量的增加一直比较平稳,年增速在2.2%左右,它与大气中的碳含量的增加虽然相关,但因果关系统计上并不显著,也不是其格兰杰因果关系原因,这一结论与IPCC的报告中二氧化碳排放量是全球变暖的主要原因的结论并不完全一致。据此,我们提出中国应对全球变暖时谨防陷入碳排放陷阱。     

Work Hours and CO2 Emissions: Evidence from U.S. Households

The degrowth movement proposes worktime reduction policies to help high-income countries meet their climate goals while supporting full employment. However, the work hours elasticity of carbon emissions remains uncertain despite a growing number of empirical analyses. This paper estimates the impact of work hours on emissions using household data from the United States. We calculate the carbon intensity of goods using input-output tables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which we combine with spending data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate carbon footprints for a representative sample of U.S. households. There is strong evidence that households with longer work hours emit more CO₂, but our household-level estimate of the work hours elasticity of carbon emissions is lower than most country-level estimates. Our results suggest that differences in work hours account for a small fraction of differences in per capita carbon footprints across high-income countries.

Highlights

• Households with longer work hours have significantly larger carbon footprints.

• Our estimated household-level work hours elasticity is smaller than most country-level estimates.

• Work hour reduction policies likely generate modest reductions in carbon emissions.

     

全球气候变暖与节能的紧迫性

全球气候变暖已对人类生产与生活产生了很大的影响,文章利用统计实证的方法验证了二氧化碳气体排放与全球平均气温变化之间的关系,利用相关、回归与Granger因果关系检验,得出近年来二氧化碳排放量的增加是导致全球气候变暖的主要原因,而煤炭、石油、天然气消费量的增加又是引起全球二氧化碳排放量增加的主要原因。因此,节约能源,控制二氧化碳的排放,是应对全球气候变暖的必由之路。     

我国能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的历史特征研究

过去50年是全球气候变暖最显著的50年,全球气候变化已经成为国际社会最为关注的问题。我国是世界上最大的发展中国家,二氧化碳总排放量已经跃居世界第一,担负着减少二氧化碳排放,遏制全球气候变暖的重任。文章采用表观能耗估算法对我国大陆地区的历史能源消耗产生的二氧化碳排放清单进行了估算。研究结果显示,我国以煤为主的能源结构和经济发展优先的发展模式导致了我国巨大的二氧化碳排放量,虽然二氧化碳排放总量每年递增,但是单位GDP产生的二氧化碳排放强度却比较低,呈逐年递减的趋势,人均二氧化碳排放量水平相对发达国家也较低。文章研究结论为我国能源安全和生态环境的可持续发展提供了研究基础。     

Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agriculture in the EU: A Spatial Assessment of Sources and Abatement Costs

Agriculture significantly contributes to emissions of greenhouse gases in the EU. By using a farm-type, supply-side oriented, linear-programming model of the European agriculture, the baseline levels of methane and nitrous oxide emissions are assessed at the regional level in the EU-15. For a range of CO₂-equivalent prices, we assess the potential abatement, as well as the resulting optimal mix of emission sources in the total abatement. Furthermore, we show that the spatial variability of the abatement achieved at a given carbon price is large, indicating that abatement cost heterogeneity is a fundamental feature in the design of a mitigation policy. The cost savings permitted by market-based instruments relative to uniform standard are shown to be large.     

科技对我国区域碳排放的影响分析

通过测算全国30个省/市2002—2011年的碳排放量,并进行碳排放区域划分,将30个省/市按照碳集中度划分为重度、中度和轻度碳排放区域。利用STIRPAT扩展模型,并采用SPSS岭回归方法对3个碳排放区域的碳排放进行了影响因素分析。分析表明:经济增长仍是影响碳排放的主要因素;我国在低碳技术的投入和发展上还比较落后,使得整体科技进步所带来的碳排放的增加量比利用科技手段减排的CO_2要多。     

Diminishing Returns: Carbon Market Crisis and the Future of Market-Dependent Climate Change Finance

The current and future costs of meeting climate change mitigation needs in the global South vastly exceed levels of available funding from public sources in the North. As a possible solution to this problem, policy-makers and various observers have pushed increasingly for the adoption of market-based carbon financing strategies, with the United Nations Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) representing the most consistent application of this approach to date. Nevertheless, market-based carbon finance remains highly volatile given its heavy dependence on conditions in the broader global carbon market which remains in the throes of a devastating crisis, earning carbon the distinction of 2011s worst performing global commodity. By demonstrating that it is through carbon's market price that finance-generating investment in the CDM is largely derived, and which also determines the ex post value of CDM projects, this paper argues for the decoupling of climate change finance from carbon's market value. The need to do so is particularly pressing since, it is argued, the current crisis in the global carbon market reflects an embedded crisis tendency in that market, born in part from the political machinations through which it was born and which leaves it prone to persisting crises of oversupply.     

中国工业分行业碳排放影响因素分解研究

采用2004~2010年中国各行业不同能源类型的相关统计数据,基于IPCC温室气体排放清单指南中的计算方法,计算了中国工业分行业各类能源消耗碳排放量;并应用LMDI法对中国工业分行业能源消耗碳排放量影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:在这7年中,中国工业能源消费碳排放年均增长8.18%,比工业增加值平均增速高5.26%;在对经济增长、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构四个因素的分析中可知,经济增长和能源强度的升高是中国能源碳排放持续增长的主导原因,能源结构对减少碳排放有较小贡献,产业结构对促进中国工业能源碳排放减少有很大贡献。通过对中国工业三大行业的进一步分析可知,制造业、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业对中国工业能源碳排放的增加有较大影响。     

新兴经济体国家城镇化发展对碳排放影响的比较研究

新兴经济体十六国是重要的发展集团,由“金砖五国”和“新钻十一国”组成,高效低碳的城镇化是其进一步提升在全球经济发展中增量贡献的动力保障。借助EKC模型和STIRPAT模型,分别研究这两个国家集团城镇化发展与碳排放量之间的关系以及城镇化对碳排放的影响。研究结果表明：在二者的关系方面,新兴经济体国家的城镇化水平与碳排放量呈现出微弱的倒“U”型关系,其中,“金砖五国”已经跨过倒“U”型曲线的拐点,而“新钻十一国”则处于拐点前期;在城镇化对碳排放的影响方面,城镇化发展对“新钻十一国”碳排放量的影响大于“金砖五国”;城镇化水平越高的国家,碳排放量越大,但随着工业化水平的提升和产业结构的优化升级,碳排放量逐步降低。     

Global Warming and German Agriculture Impact Estimations Using a Restricted Profit Function

This study uses the concept of shadow prices formeasuring the impacts of climate change. By estimatinga restricted profit function rather than a cost or aproduction function the explanatory power of the modelis increased because of an endogenous outputstructure. Using low aggregated panel data on WesternGerman farmers, the results imply that the agricultural production process is significantly influenced by climate conditions. Simulation results using a 2 ×CO₂ climate scenario show positive impactsfor all regions in Germany. Interestingly, the spatialdistribution of the gains is indicating no advantagefor those regions, which currently suffer frominsufficient temperature. Finally, the importance ofan endogenous output structure is confirmed by thefinding that the desired product mix will drasticallychange.     

Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in the European Union

This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions in the European Union. A panel data analysis for the period 1981 to 1995 is applied in order to estimate the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and CO₂ emissions in ten selected European countries. The analysis shows important disparities between the most industrialised countries and the rest. The results do not seem to support a uniform policy to control emissions; they rather indicate that a reduction in emissions should be achieved by taking into account the specific economic situation and the industrial structure of each EU member state.     

中国2020年二氧化碳排放情景分析

本文利用中国科学技术信息研究所和美国千年研究所开发的中国可持续发展模型,对我国2020年的CO2排放情景进行定量分析,来模拟与验证如何达到2020年单位GDP二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40％～45％的减排目标。报告设定了技术进步、生活方式改变、价格调整、产业结构调整等几个情景。分析发现,如果要降低CO2排放总量,最好的途径就是加快技术进步、加大可再生能源和核电的比例。要实现二氧化碳排放强度的目标,最好的途径就是实现产业结构调整。     

A Cost-effective Approach to Attracting Low-income Countries to International Emissions Trading: Theory and Experiments

The cost-effectiveness of the KyotoProtocol and any similar non-global treatywould be enhanced by attracting additionalcountries to international emissions tradingand achieving this as soon as possible. Incontrast to what is heard in most of thedebate, such an enlargement is here taken to beattained with the new participants, atleast to begin with, being fullycompensated. This paper focuses on twoforms of compensation that can be used toattract poor countries to participate inemissions trading. The theoretical aswell as experimental evidence suggests that, ifpoor countries are more risk averse than richcountries, partial compensation in terms offinancial transfers is more cost-effective thanrelying solely on compensation in kind –emission quotas – as has been the case so far.Using money for partial compensation would alsoreduce the risk for ``hot air' allocations andthe ensuing political obstacles tocost-effectiveness that such allocations tendto create.     

双碳发展对我国的影响及应对策略

近年来二氧化碳排放持续快速增长,全球气候变暖已成不争事实.国际社会为共同应对气候变化做出了积极努力,截至2020年底,全球已有40余个国家和经济体正式宣布了碳中和目标.我国化石能源消费和二氧化碳排放持续增长,占全球比重逐步升高,为提升发展质量,彰显大国责任,需要积极科学推动碳达峰碳中和工作.同时,双碳发展将对我国经济社会产生重要深远影响,能源结构、产业布局将发生深刻调整.面对重大机遇挑战,应以战略性思维统筹推进双碳工作,找准发力点,分阶段稳步实施,努力实现经济社会高质低碳创新发展.     

Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the U.S. Economy: A Structural Decomposition Analysis

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of various influences on carbon dioxide emissions. It incorporates methodological refinements of input-output structural decomposition analysis, which is the examination of economic change by means of a set of comparative static variations in key parameters of I-O tables. The analysis is performed using a two-tiered KLEM model, which allows for estimation of substitution and technological change effects within and between input aggregates. The model is used to decompose the sources of change in CO₂ emissions in the U.S. over the 1972–82 timeframe using hybrid energy/value tables for the initial and terminal years. Results show the significant effect of substitution within the energy sector and between energy and other inputs as the leading causes of the decline in carbon dioxide emissions.     

低碳农业发展核心目标:减缓和适应气候变化

减缓和适应是人类应对气候变化行动中两种相辅相成的措施。中国农业在应对气候变化中,减缓和适应同等重要:一方面,农业在减缓气候变化中具有独特的作用;另一方面,农业适应气候变化比减缓气候变化更为现实的迫切。积极发展低碳现代农业实现减排增汇,中国农业生态系统可以作为一种非常重要的固碳增汇措施,纳入全球CO2减排措施中去。中国低碳农业在减缓和适应气候变化中具有巨大潜力。     

The Impact of Inequality and Redistribution on Growth

In this paper, we reassess the impact of inequality on growth. The majority of previous papers have employed (system) GMM estimation. However, recent simulation studies indicate that the problems of GMM when using non‐stationary data such as GDP have been grossly underestimated in applied research. Concerning predetermined regressors such as inequality, GMM is outperformed by a simple least‐squares dummy variable estimator. Additionally, new data have recently become available that not only double the sample size compared to most previous studies, but also address the substantial measurement issues that have plagued past research. Using these new data and an LSDV estimator, we provide an analysis that both accounts for the conditions where inequality is beneficial or detrimental to growth and distinguishes between market‐driven inequality and redistribution. We show that there are situations where market inequality affects growth positively while redistribution is simultaneously beneficial.     

Inequality and Income Distribution in Global Value Chains

Global value chains (GVCs), led by transnational corporations (TNCs), have reshaped the world division of labor over the past two decades. GVCs are pervasive in low technology manufacturing, such as textile and apparel, as well as in more advanced industries like automobiles, electronics, and machines. This hierarchical division of labor generates wild competition at the lower value-added stages of production, where low wages and low profit margins prevail for workers and contract manufacturers in developing countries. At the top of the hierarchy another kind of competition prevails, centered on the ability to monitor and control intellectual property rights related to innovation, finance, and marketing. We argue that GVCs have had crucial effects on income inequality and the appropriation of rents in modern capitalism.     

Creative Destruction and the Rise of Inequality

Common wisdom interprets the rise in inequality of the last two decades as the result of a skill-biased labor demand shift. This explanation does not account for two important observations: (i) within-group inequality has also markedly risen, and (ii) the rise of inequality has been accompanied by a rise of the volatility of earnings. This paper argues that a dual labor market structure, where some workers are paid efficiency-wages can account for the empirical regularities, in the absence of skilled biased technological change. The analysis demonstrates that an unbiased innovation, as well as North–South trade, can contribute to the efficiency wage premium, and thus to wage inequality, by increasing labor turnover.     

中国东西部地区碳排放的比较研究

能源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础,是促进经济增长最基本的要素之一。随着世界经济的迅速发展,气候变化对人类活动的影响越来越深,也越来越受到国际社会的重视,实现节能减排已经成为全人类共同的目标。中国正处于工业化和城市化快速发展的过程,经济增长与资源供给和环境保护的矛盾日益尖锐。中国东西部地区经济发展存在较大差距,能源利用状况也不尽相同,本文比较研究东西部地区的碳排放,采用截面样本具有垂直维度信息和时间序列样本具有水平横截面信息的面板数据模型,并引入空间效应和计量方法,理论上对低碳能源发展进行补充和完善,实践上为政府制定经济与环境相互发展的能源战略提供指导,为中国全面实现节能减排提供参考。