The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust

This paper investigates how an important driver of the recent housing boom and bust, people’s expectation, influences housing asset returns. Specifically, it extends the volatility feedback model to study the relationship between housing volatility and asset returns during 19632007. The analysis considers two alternative breakpoints, 1984Q1 and 1999Q1, in order to distinguish the permanent structural break from temporary Markov-switching volatility. The novelty of this study lies in its insightful investigations into the recent U.S. housing boom and bust in the post-1999 period in four dimensions. First, the significantly negative volatility feedback effect in the housing market suggests a positive relationship between housing volatility and expected asset returns, and highly supports the important role of people’s expectations in the recent housing boom and bust. Second, the high-volatility regimes of the housing market delivered by this study indicate a strong association between housing cycles and business cycles, as well as a remarkable uncertainty in the U.S. housing market after the recession 2001. Third, the violated fundamental which refers to the broken negative relationship between housing volatility and realized asset returns during 2001–2004 implies the possible presence of a housing bubble during this period. Finally, volatility feedback anticipates the recent bubble-like housing market dynamics because high volatility during 2002–2003 implies low realized returns in the early housing-boom stage (2002–2003), as well as high expected returns in the second stage of the housing boom (2004–2005).     

Should we Fear the Shadow? House Prices,Shadow Inventory,and the Nascent Housing Recovery

Although a broad-based increase in house prices has been observed over the past year, not everyone is convinced the rise of house prices will persist and lead to a steady recovery of the economy. The main reason for this skepticism is uncertainty about the “shadow inventory”: foreclosed homes held by investors or as REOs, which have not yet hit the market but likely will as market prices rise. The volume of shadow inventory itself in local markets is largely unknown, as is its impact on the housing market. This study quantifies the size of the shadow inventory and investigates the spatial impact of the out-flow of shadow inventory. The scope of our study is a set of housing markets (AZ, CA, and FL) that vary in both their historic housing price volatility as well as institutional factors - such as foreclosure law statutes - that may influence the relationship between the shadow inventory and house price dynamics. To address the endogeneity that characterizes the spatial interaction of house prices and the out-flow of the shadow inventory, we utilize a simultaneous equation system of spatial autoregressions (SESSAR). The model is estimated using measures of the shadow inventory derived from DataQuick’s national transaction history database and county-level house price indices provided by Black Knight. Lastly, because our estimate - as well as all other existing estimates - of the shadow inventory relies upon string matching algorithms to identify entry into and exit out of REO status, we validate the accuracy of our measures of REOs using loss mitigation data from the OCC Mortgage Metrics database.     

Does Accrual Management Impair the Performance of Earnings‐Based Valuation Models?

This study examines how accrual manipulations affect firm valuation in the years surrounding the passage of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (SOX). We compare the absolute percentage pricing errors of RIM and DCF valuation models for a group of US firms suspected to have engaged in accrual manipulations to avoid a small loss or a small earnings decline vs. ‘Normal’ firms matched on industry, year and size. We find that RIM can better estimate intrinsic value than DCF for the matched Normal firms in the pre‐SOX period, but not so for accrual manipulators, and that SOX mitigates the harmful effect of accrual manipulations, completely eliminating the difference in RIM's accuracy advantage over DCF between Normal firms and accrual manipulators. As a further analysis, we redefine Suspect firms as real‐activity manipulators and find a significant across‐group difference in accuracy wedge in both sample periods, implying that SOX has prompted firms to favor real‐activity manipulations over accrual manipulations.     

Forecasting and planning in the USSR: Part I: 1976–1980

This article considers the development of Soviet Social forecasting in the 1976–1980 period, and begins an updating of Dr Bestuzhev-Lada's report on futures research in the USSR, published in the April 1976 issue of Futures. Particularly significant is the development in the methodological bases of Soviet forecasting activities.     

Performance auditing: Improving the quality of political and democratic processes?

In an attempt to improve the quality of political and democratic processes, governmental organisations could decide to introduce performance auditing. However, earlier studies suggest that performance auditing can actually damage the quality of these processes, especially when it leads to information about the inputs, outputs and efficiency of programmes or activities. This raises the question of whether performance audits that lead to other types of information have similar effects. This paper analyses the effects of two local government audit committees in the Netherlands, both of which conduct performance audits that produce a broad set of information. It concludes that the lack of success of performance auditing, in terms of its contribution to the quality of political and democratic processes, cannot fully be explained by the type of information that is produced. In order to strengthen their role, audit bodies must find a balance between maintaining an independent position and responding to the expectations and requirements of their key stakeholders, which include the elected body, the Executive and the official organisation.     

Do Repeated Wildfires Change Homebuyers’ Demand for Homes in High-Risk Areas? A Hedonic Analysis of the Short and Long-Term Effects of Repeated Wildfires on House Prices in Southern California

Unlike most hedonic studies that analyze the effects of a one-time event, this paper analyzes the effects of forest fires that are several years apart in a small geographical area. We find that repeated forest fires cause house prices to decrease for houses located near the fires. We test and reject the hypothesis that the house price reduction from one fire is equal to the house price reduction from a second fire. The first fire reduces house prices by about 10%, while the second fire reduces house prices by nearly 23%, a statistically significant difference. The pattern of these results are robust to several alternative econometric specifications.

The Bigger the Better? Merger and Acquisition Performance of Financial Holding Corporations

This study investigates the performance of the merger and acquisition activities of 14 financial holding corporations (FHCs) in Taiwan before and after their establishment in 2002. We find weak evidence of improved performance of FHCs. The findings have implications for other reforming emerging countries in East Asia with similar economic structures and financial environment.     

Performance effects of setting targets and pay–performance relations before or after operations

This study investigates both theoretically and experimentally whether and how ex post use of relative performance evaluation (RPE) information in determining performance target levels and profit sharing ratio (PSR) levels affects employer profit performance. Our findings show that employers use RPE information, i.e. peer performance, to adjust performance target levels and PSR levels to reflect economic conditions. More importantly, we find that ex post use of RPE information, i.e. peer performance, improves profit performance. However, ex post adjustment of target levels and PSR levels based on peer performance have different performance implications. Specifically, we find that ex post target contracts improve employer residual profit over ex ante target contracts, while ex post PSR contracts do not improve employer residual profit over ex ante PSR contracts. Our supplemental analyses suggest that this difference is likely because employees are more sensitive to prior period compensation determined by ex post PSRs than ex post targets. Compared to ex post targets that are likely perceived to be fair based on peer performance, ex post PSRs based on the peer performance can be used opportunistically by employers and/or are perceived so by employees, which leads to future repercussions manifested in lower employee effort and employer residual profit.     

Accounting and Finance Degrees: Is the Academic Performance of Placement Students Better?

The relationship between placement and academic performance on accounting and finance degrees is significantly under-researched. This paper examines the relationship between a number of factors, including placement, and academic performance as measured by average marks. Readily available data on placement status, gender, and prior achievement for the academic years ended 2004, 2005, and 2006 for students reading for an accounting and finance degree were used. Linear regression models were constructed using two versions of the data—one with all students in it and the second with graduates only. Placement students perform significantly better than full-time students do and, in the Graduates model, the female placement students perform significantly better than their male counterparts do. Most recent prior academic performance is significant in all models whereas gender had no separate significant effect on performance in the second and final years of the degree. The paper concludes with suggestions for further research into placement.     

Performance indicators and democracy: citizens’ views on the purposes of government websites

Despite the ongoing interest in performance measurement amongst public managers, little is known about citizens’ views on the purposes of performance indicators (PIs). A cross-sectional survey of the Australian adult population was used to examine citizens’ views on government websites which provide PIs. Citizens identified three distinct purposes for these: evaluation and improvement; transparency and accountability; and reward and punishment. These different purposes were found to be related to political attributes, indicating how PIs might support democratic empowerment.     

Globalization and the state–profession relationship: the case the Bank of Credit and Commerce International

Globalization of businesses raises major questions about the regulation of corporations, both in the national and international context. The debate is marked by two competing views. The ‘hyperglobalists’ claim that in a globalized world, nation-states cannot take effective actions to regulate multinational businesses, especially those relating to banking and finance. In response, the ‘skeptics’ accept the view that to regulate corporations, the nation-state has always had to restructure itself. However, they challenge the contention that globalization has reduced the power, functions and authority of the state. The paper contributes to the debate through an examination of some of the processes leading to the forced closure (and the aftermath) of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI), a bank that operated from 73 countries. It particularly focuses upon the role of the banking regulators and their reliance upon auditing technologies to regulate major banks. The paper sides with the ‘skeptics’ and argues that the nation states, especially major Western states, remain important players in the regulation of global businesses. It concludes that the nation-state’s capacity to regulate global enterprises is compromised by history, domestic concerns and relationships with class and capitalist interests rather than by globalization per se.     

Bank–firm relations and the role of Mutual Guarantee Institutions at the peak of the crisis

We examine the role played by Mutual Guarantee Institutions (MGIs) in the lending policies undertaken by banks at the peak of the Great Crisis of 2007–2009. We address this issue by using a large database on Italian firms built from the credit files of UniCredit banking Group and focusing on small business. We provide an empirical analysis of the determinants of the probability that a borrowing firm will suffer financial tension and obtain two main innovative findings. First, we find that small firms supported by MGIs less likely experienced financial tensions even at that time of utmost financial stress. Second, our empirical evidence shows that MGIs played a signaling role beyond the simple provision of collateral. This latter finding suggests that the information provided by MGIs turned out to be key for bank–firm relations as scoring and rating systems – being typically based on pro-cyclical indicators – had become less informative during the crisis.     

Temporal aggregation of the Aumann–Serrano and Foster–Hart performance indexes

We investigate the temporal aggregation of the Aumann–Serrano (AS) and Foster–Hart (FH) performance indexes considered by Kadan and Liu (2014). We provide sufficient conditions for the two indexes to be closed under temporal aggregation, that is, for the two indexes to have the same values when the observations are aggregated. Here, we present empirical examples using U.S. stock data and the four anomalies studied by Fama and French (1993) and Carhart (1997), where the two indexes have nearly identical values in some stocks and one anomaly when the observations are aggregated. Unlike the Sharpe ratio, the AS and FH performance indexes have more stable properties with respect to temporal aggregation.     

Quantiles of the realized stock–bond correlation and links to the macroeconomy

This paper adopts quantile regressions to scrutinize the realized stock–bond correlation based upon high frequency returns. The paper provides in-sample and out-of-sample analysis and considers factors constructed from a large number of macro-finance predictors well-known from the return predictability literature. Strong in-sample predictability is obtained from the factor quantile model. Out-of-sample the quantile factor model outperforms benchmark models.     

The microstructure of fear,the Fama–French factors and the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008

We analyze minute by minute equity price data from 1 August 2005 to 31 October 2008 to study the relationship between the three sources of systematic risk in Fama and French's (1993) model and the market's expectation of total risk as represented by the VIX (the “fear factor”). Our findings confirm the predicted relationship between the equity risk-premium and risk (Merton, 1980). We find that the size-premium is driven by investors who are flying-to-quality (Abel, 1988; Barsky, 1989). We also find that investors became increasingly sensitive to changes in the VIX during the global financial crisis.     

Baltic stock markets and the financial crisis of 2008–2009

This study presents new evidence on stock market integration by investigating the linkages between developed European stock markets and emerging stock markets. We focus on three countries in the Baltic region, namely Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with particular attention to the recent financial crisis of 2008–2009. The study is motivated by traditional stock market studies of integration, which show that developed stock markets are highly integrated, while emerging markets may be segmented. How integrated these emerging stock markets are in a crisis period with respect to the EUROSTOXX50 stock index is an empirical question investigated in this study. While the results of this study demonstrate that the Baltic stock markets were apparently segmented before the crisis, they were highly integrated during the crisis. The results of the variance decomposition analysis show that a large proportion of the forecast variance of the Baltic stock markets can be explained by the EUROSTOXX50 during the crisis. The results from the quantile regressions demonstrate that during the crisis the returns of the lowest quantile were most sensitive to the EUROSTOXX50 stock index. All these results imply less diversification benefits during crises when investors would need them the most.     

Cross-sectional tests of the CAPM and Fama–French three-factor model

Grouping does not produce a wide range of betas. Consequently, cross-sectional tests of the CAPM are bound to lack power. This paper provides a simple way to alleviate the problem by repackaging the data with zero-weight portfolios. When the CAPM is true and the data are repackaged, simulation shows that the average values of the intercept and slope converge to their true values more rapidly and there are striking increases in R² and the power of the tests. Empirical results are dramatically different in datasets with and without the zero-weight portfolios.     

Baltic stock markets and the financial crisis of 2008–2009

This study presents new evidence on stock market integration by investigating the linkages between developed European stock markets and emerging stock markets. We focus on three countries in the Baltic region, namely Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with particular attention to the recent financial crisis of 2008–2009. The study is motivated by traditional stock market studies of integration, which show that developed stock markets are highly integrated, while emerging markets may be segmented. How integrated these emerging stock markets are in a crisis period with respect to the EUROSTOXX50 stock index is an empirical question investigated in this study. While the results of this study demonstrate that the Baltic stock markets were apparently segmented before the crisis, they were highly integrated during the crisis. The results of the variance decomposition analysis show that a large proportion of the forecast variance of the Baltic stock markets can be explained by the EUROSTOXX50 during the crisis. The results from the quantile regressions demonstrate that during the crisis the returns of the lowest quantile were most sensitive to the EUROSTOXX50 stock index. All these results imply less diversification benefits during crises when investors would need them the most.     

Signing trades and an evaluation of the Lee–Ready algorithm

We use techniques developed to analyze the Supply Curve in liquidity models in order to analyze the accuracy of the Lee and Ready algorithm, both for highly liquid and relatively liquid stocks. Through the use of order book data combined with tick data, we are actually (somewhat tediously) able to tell whether or not a given trade is buyer or seller initiated. For those trades where such knowledge is certain, the accuracy of the Lee and Ready algorithm is not as accurate as has been assumed previously. We can essentially prove that the Lee and Ready algorithm is always at least 55% accurate, and is around 61% accurate for highly liquid stocks (i.e., the top 50 of the S&P 100).     

On asymptotic properties of Bonus–Malus systems based on the number and on the size of the claims

A general framework for a Bonus–Malus system (BMS) based on the number and the size of the claims is presented, the set of the bonus classes being an interval [a,?b], say 0<a<1<b. The BMS is interpreted as a general Markov chain with state space [a,?b]. It turns out that, under certain assumptions, the Markov chain possesses an invariant limit distribution to which it converges with a geometric rate. We show how the invariant distribution can be evaluated by means of simulation. We also deal with the best possible convergence rate and show how it can be presented by means of the spectral theory of Banach spaces.