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2.3单位根检验和因果检验
在作进一步分析前.必须检验时间序列变量的平稳性。这里用Dickey和Fuller的增广单位根(ADF)检验各变量的平稳性。结果如表6所示。我们发现。各变量序列水平是平稳的.[第一段] 相似文献
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结构突变是经典计量经济学所面临的难题之一,也是当前国际计量经济学界的一个前沿热点问题.本文采用带有内生结构突变的单位根检验,判定我国进出口时间序列服从具有两次结构变动的趋势平稳过程,而不是单位根过程.在此基础上进一步建立了同期协同结构突变向量自回归模型,即协变模型,得出了一些与常规的协整分析不同的结论,该模型具有更强的解释能力和更好的预测效果. 相似文献
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为了考察汇率和股价的动态关系,文章分别对汇率和股价在股权分置改革之前、股权分置改革之后和汇率制度改革之前以及汇率制度改革之后两个变量序列进行单位根检验、10hansen协整检验、因果关系检验,然后建立向量误差修正模型(VEC)。研究发现,只在汇率制度改革之后人民币兑美元的汇率、人民币兑港币的汇率分别与上证综指序列在滞后一天呈现短期显著关系;在三个阶段我国都存在汇率到股价的单向因果关系。 相似文献
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本文基于1978-2006年的青海省数据,选取银行信贷总额、中长期信贷、国内生产总簋作为变量.以单位根检验、协整检验和葛兰杰因果检验等计量方法。对不发达地区银行信贷与经济增长关系问题进行了研究。 相似文献
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改革开放30年广东省经济增长的实证分析——基于结构突变理论 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
文章详细剖析结构突变理论并具体表述了内外生结构突变的单位根和趋势稳定的检验。在此基础上,运用结构突变理论,对广东省生产总值指数的数据生成过程进行了实证研究,结果表明,其数据生成过程具备结构突变的趋势平稳过程。同时,利用内、外生结构突变的单位根检验,寻找到其内、外生结构变化点。 相似文献
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文章基于VAK模型对大豆的期货市场的价格发现功能进行了ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、误差修正模型等实证分析.结果表明:大豆现货价格序列与期货价格序列为非平稳序列;它们之间存在显著的长期均衡关系;二者存在双向的价格引导关系;期货市场的价格发现功能得到了较好的发挥. 相似文献
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对1971—2009年中国人均实际GDP和人均耗电量的Zivot-Andrews单位根检验表明,两序列都是带有结构突变的趋势平稳过程,所以,采用两种方法检验两者间的因果关系:基于VAR的Dolado-Lütkepo检验,和基于去势数据的Granger因果检验。两种检验都取得了从人均耗电量到人均实际GDP的单向因果关系的有力证据。这意味着电力供应对满足日益增长的用电量,从而维持中国经济增长是至关重要的。 相似文献
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我国煤炭价格与原油价格关系的协整研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
运用单位根检验和协整检验方法,研究我国2007—2011年6月煤炭价格和原油价格的时间序列特征以及两个市场价格之间长期关系。研究发现,我国煤炭价格和原油价格均为非平稳时间序列,但两者之间不具有协整关系。 相似文献
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ZHU Zhi-yu 《重庆与世界》2014,31(11):6-11
The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction. 相似文献
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This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions. 相似文献
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商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上,尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能,资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标,以求真实反映银行经营的成果,有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系,从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。 相似文献
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Torsten J. Gerpott und Nejc M. Jakopin 《Zeitschrift für Planung & Unternehmenssteuerung》2008,19(1):7-37
Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte
(AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten
in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch
Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls
unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem
wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn
die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt
überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs
bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant
bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten.
In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile
eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser
beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von
TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage
und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen,
erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.
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Natasha Hamilton-Hart Günther G. Schulze 《Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies》2016,52(3):265-295
Indonesia’s economic growth picked up slightly in mid-2016 but remains below the level demanded by government and popular aspirations. Despite a plethora of reforms intended to increase efficiency and productivity, some policies are perverse and longstanding problems of implementation remain. The share of manufacturing has declined, the real exchange rate has appreciated, exports have dwindled, and growth has been trending downwards. The banking sector is stable but inefficient, with wide net interest margins and numerous barriers to competition. Trade protection, particularly in basic food commodities, has created high costs that weigh particularly heavily on the poor. Declining government revenues have placed increasing pressure on the public budget, even as the current administration aims to increase spending on infrastructure and welfare and to enhance productivity. In an effort to increase revenues, the government has announced a tax amnesty program and other measures. In addition, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the new finance minister, has taken steps to cut non-essential expenditure in order to secure high spending on infrastructure and at the same time keep within the 3% budget deficit limit stipulated by law. Although the overall debt situation is not yet alarming, declining revenues and budget cuts that do not fully reflect this decline are putting pressure on increasing debt levels. The government’s high-profile tax amnesty program was the major policy initiative implemented in the second half of 2016 that aimed to relieve this pressure. Despite widespread criticism of, and scepticism about, the tax amnesty (both within and outside Indonesia), its first phase had a much higher participation rate than most independent accounts expected. Revenues raised so far through the amnesty are less than 60% of the official target, but this is actually a strong result for the short term. The bigger question, however, is whether the amnesty is a key element of a more encompassing strategy to overhaul the system of taxation and tax administration. 相似文献
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天文旅游资源从成因可以分为行星地球天文旅游资源、天体天文旅游资源和天文文化旅游资源三类。天文旅游方兴未艾,我国天文旅游具有很大发展前景。文章对我国开展天文旅游的条件进行了分析,对发展天文旅游的策略和措施进行了梳理。 相似文献