The market microstructure of central bank intervention

How quickly do central bank intervention operations impact the foreign exchange market? And, do intra-daily market conditions influence the effectiveness of central bank interventions? This paper uses high-frequency intra-daily data to examine the relationship between the efficacy of intervention operations and the “state of the market” at the moment that the operation is made public. The results indicate that some traders typically know that the Fed is intervening at least 1 h prior to the public release of the information in newswire reports. Also, the evidence suggests that the timing of intervention operations matters—interventions that occur during heavy trading volume, that are closely timed to scheduled macro announcements, and that are coordinated with another central bank are the most likely to have large effects.     

The liquidity effects of foreign exchange intervention

This paper examines the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in a two-country, two-currency, general equilibrium model that allows for liquidity effects. Both sterilized and non-sterilized intervention operations have significant impacts on the allocation of liquidity in international financial markets. Whether intervention is successful in moving the exchange rate in the desirable direction depends upon the degree of sterilization of intervention and the intratemporal elasticity of substitution of the consumption goods. The model shows that there exist circumstances in which the response of exchange rate to intervention is ‘perverse’ as documented in the empirical literature.     

Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate in a unifying framework

The structural VAR model is developed to jointly analyze the effects of foreign exchange intervention and (money or interest rate setting) conventional monetary policy on the exchange rate, the two types of policy reactions to the exchange rate, and interactions between the two types of policies. First, many interactions among the two types of policies and the exchange rate are found, which suggests that a joint analysis is important. Second, foreign exchange intervention has substantial effects on the exchange rate, reacts to the exchange rate significantly (to stabilize the exchange rate), and signals future conventional monetary policy stance changes (to back up the intervention). This suggests the importance of modeling foreign exchange intervention explicitly in the study of monetary policy and exchange rate behaviors. Many other interesting results on the interactions among the two types of policies and the exchange rate are also documented.     

Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope

This paper provides real-time evidence on the frequency, size, duration and economic significance of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market. We investigate deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency. The analysis unveils that: i) short-lived violations of CIP arise; ii) the size of CIP violations can be economically significant; iii) their duration is, on average, high enough to allow agents to exploit them, but low enough to explain why such opportunities have gone undetected in much previous research using data at lower frequency.     

Real-time effects of central bank intervention in the euro market

This paper investigates the real-time effects of sterilized foreign exchange intervention using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our analysis employs a two-step weighted least squares estimation procedure. We control for macro surprises, address the issue of endogeneity, and carry out an array of robustness tests. Only when the direction of intervention is consistent with the monetary policy stance do we find that intervention exerts a significant influence on exchange rate returns.     

Exchange rate management in emerging markets: Intervention via an electronic limit order book

This paper describes and analyzes the implementation of a crawling exchange rate band on an electronic trading platform. The placement of limit orders at the central bank's target rate serves as a credible policy statement that may coordinate beliefs of market participants. We find for our sample that intervention increases exchange rate volatility (and spread) for the next minutes but that intervention days show a lower degree of volatility (and spread) than non-intervention days. We also show for intraday data that the price impact of interbank order flow is smaller on intervention days than on non-intervention days. These stabilizing effects, however, rely on the conditions of large currency reserves and the existence of capital controls; an electronic market seems to support this goal.     

中国外汇衍生品市场发展的次序

本文通过对国际外汇衍生品市场的发展特点和趋势的研究,结合我国外汇衍生品的实际发展状况,提出我国进一步发展外汇衍生品市场的设想,并指出外汇衍生品市场发展所需的配套措施及需要注意的问题.     

Impact of commodity prices on exchange rates in commodity-exporting countries

This paper studies the link between real exchange rates and commodity prices, over the period 1993M1–2018M12, for commodity-exporting countries by analysing countries individually and considering the possibility of structural breaks. Our results suggest that: (a) the movements in the price of the main commodity (i.e., the one whose share is at least 20% of total commodity export) affect significantly to the real exchange rate; (b) the sign of the effect of commodity prices on real exchange rate is not clearly positive (as was found by earlier analyses using panel data), but it depends on the country considered; and (c) the negative effects of the possession of natural resources observed in the past decades seem not to be now overwhelming.     

Unveiling the effects of foreign exchange intervention: A panel approach

The paper studies the effect of foreign exchange intervention on the level of the exchange rate relying on an instrumental-variable panel approach suited to assess the macroeconomic importance of such effect (i.e., beyond short-term effects found in the literature). We find robust evidence that intervention affects the exchange rate in a meaningful way from a macroeconomic perspective. A purchase of foreign currency of 1 percentage point of GDP causes a depreciation of the nominal and real exchange rates in the ranges of [1.7–2.0] percent and [1.4–1.7] percent, respectively. The effects are found to be persistent and symmetric for FX purchases and sales.     

The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on disaggregated data comprising 21 exporting sectors (BEC classification) in Turkey. Building on a theoretical model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components, the empirical investigation traces the effects through demand and supply channels. Anticipated exchange rate appreciation, in line with movements in underlying fundamentals, has significant adverse effects, contracting export growth across many sectors. Random fluctuations in the exchange rate, deviations around steady-state equilibrium, have asymmetric effects on sectoral export growth. The evidence indicates increased contraction of export demand to currency appreciation over time. In contrast, the effect of depreciation in stimulating export growth has lost momentum over time. While exchange rate fluctuations had a positive net effect on export growth before 2003, the net effect is negative for the post-2002 period. The implications are anticipated movement in the exchange rate guides export plans, signaling the importance of managing fundamentals to anchor rational forecasts. Moreover, less variability of the exchange rate is likely to improve sectoral export growth in Turkey over time.     

Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment

ABSTRACT

Exchange rate risk remains a key concern for export-oriented economies in Southeast Asia. Traditionally, export performance is thought to be adversely affected by exchange rate appreciation and high exchange rate volatility. Nonetheless, in the context of global value chains where export production relies heavily on imported inputs, the trade effects of exchange rate may be weakened. Using the OECD-WTO Trade in Value-added (TiVA) database, this paper seeks to tease out the association between exchange rate movements, volatility and aggregate exports of goods and services among ASEAN economies. More importantly, it investigates whether integration into GVCs affects these relationships. Applying panel regression techniques to a sample of eight ASEAN countries over the period 1995–2011, we found that high share of foreign value added (FVA) embodied in exports almost completely offsets the negative effect of an appreciation in the real effective exchange rate (REER) on real gross exports. At the same time, high FVA share also dampens the negative association between exports and increased REER volatility.     

Real effective exchange rate and the constant elasticity of substitution assumption

The real effective exchange rate (REER) is an aggregation of several bilateral real exchange rates assuming constant elasticity of substitution (CES) between goods from different countries. We investigate the validity of the CES assumption by estimating manufacturing export equations for 56 countries over 26 years. Under the CES assumption, splitting the REER into two components should not increase the fit in an export equation and the coefficients on the two REERs should be equal. We reject both these implications and find that the export equations with two REERs—vs. OECD and vs. nonOECD countries—perform better than the traditional ones.     

我国外汇市场动量效应的实证研究——基于改进的MA交易规则

本文构建了改进的MA交易规则,运用13600种策略对我国外汇市场上的动量效应进行了实证检验,发现存在着显著的动量超额收益,证明“有效市场”理论在中国外汇市场上并不成立。同时,这种超额收益也受到了人民币汇率形成机制改革的显著影响,机制改革后随着汇率弹性的增加和市场供求关系的逐渐体现,动量效应有所减弱,市场逐渐向“理性”发展。     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?

Recent empirical evidence suggests that the time series behavior of the real exchange rate is well approximated by a nonlinear, exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model. This nonlinearity helps resolve a number of puzzles concerning the persistence and volatility of real exchange rates. In this paper, we explore whether it may also help resolve the well-known difficulties of exchange rate forecasting. We develop a bootstrap test of the random walk hypothesis of the nominal exchange rate, given ESTAR real exchange rate dynamics. We find strong evidence of predictability at horizons of 2 to 3 years, but not at shorter horizons.     

基于企业国际经验的国外市场选择和进入模式研究

国际经验对企业选择国外市场进入模式的影响是企业国际化管理研究的重点之一,然而这一问题并没有引起国内理论研究的广泛关注。为了弥补这个缺陷,本文对288家国内上市公司的国际经营数据进行了研究。研究发现,企业国际经验,特别是决策团队的国际经验对国外市场选择和国外市场进入模式存在积极的影响。同时,规模越大、技术含量越高的企业,越倾向于选择资源投入较大的国外市场进入模式。     

Nonlinear effects of exchange rate changes on the South African bilateral trade balance

In testing for the J-curve, previous studies have shown that the trade balance model is better fitted using cointegration and error correction mechanisms. These mechanisms are able to incorporate the short-term deterioration and the long-term improvement of the trade balance – the definition of the J-curve. However, the drawback of the established cointegration and error correction frameworks is that they assume symmetry in the equilibrium adjustment process. Incidentally, studies which have used the linear frameworks have found little support for the J-curve. Since the adjustment process could be nonlinear, a fresh investigation of the J-curve using nonlinear approaches could provide competing evidence. This paper retested the J-curve by using quarterly data for South Africa and her key trade partners (China, Germany, India, Japan, the UK and the USA) and found the linear specification to support the J-curve phenomenon in only two cases (India and the USA) under relaxed conditions. In contrast, the nonlinear specification supported the J-curve phenomenon in all cases at no cost of serial correlation and functional misspecification. We also found the real exchange rate changes to have significant nonlinear effects on the South African trade balance.     

Balance sheet effects and the choice of exchange rate regime in developing countries

We investigate the choice of regime amongst hard pegs, soft pegs, managed floats and independent floats for a panel of developing countries. There is evidence of a matched ordering of regimes and country characteristics. We find some evidence for the ‘balance sheet' hypothesis that foreign liabilities in the banking system and foreign debt are associated with less exchange rate flexibility, particularly when a ‘de facto’ regime classification is used. Easily the best predictor of a country's current regime is its regime in the previous year.     

Bank regulation and the process of internationalisation: A study of Japanese bank entry into London

The paper provides a theoretical insight into bank regulation and the process of internationalisation by examining the concepts of regulatory push and market pull within the context of Japanese bank entry into London during the 1980s. Rugman and Verbeke's [(1998). Corporate strategy and international environmental policy. Journal of International Business Studies, 29(4), 819–833] Consistency of Home and Host Government Goals model is utilised to structure the discussion, which centres on a situation where there is a conflict of goals between multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the home government but goal alignment between MNEs and the host government. As such the paper examines a relatively under-researched aspect of internationalisation and concludes that in certain circumstances internationalisation can occur despite great ‘psychic distance’. The paper also argues that although bank regulation can lead to a conflict situation it can also be conducive to the development of a strong home base and the development of firm specific advantages.     

Reducing distributor opportunism in the export market: Effects of monitoring mechanisms, norm-based information exchange, and market orientation

As monitoring mechanisms are critical to exporter–distributor relationships, the effectiveness of different types of monitoring mechanisms remains an important issue. Our study goes beyond the separate effects of monitoring mechanisms on opportunism, and tests the moderating effects of market orientation (MO) and norm-based information exchange on the monitoring mechanism–opportunism relationship. Based on survey data of 160 export ventures in China, we find that process control increases distributor opportunism, while norm-based information exchange and MO decrease it. Moreover, at high levels of norm-based information exchange and MO, the impact of process control on opportunism turns from positive to negative.