Trade openness,foreign direct investment,and finance-growth nexus in the Eurozone countries

The paper investigates causal relationships between trade openness, foreign direct investment, financial development, and economic growth in 19 Eurozone countries over the period 1988–2013. Using a panel vector error-correction model (VECM), the empirical results show that these variables are cointegrated. The study shows that a combination of opening the Eurozone countries for trade and fostering their financial and economic development have elevated inflows of foreign direct investment into the region in the long run. At the same time, increasing inflows of foreign direct investment in the short run have propelled economic growth, which in return has strengthened the role of financial development and international trade to sustain economic growth in the region through feedback effects. The empirical results have important policy implications for countries in the Eurozone, especially those who face challenges as a result of lack of confidence in their financial system and those who face a sovereign debt crisis.     

Productivity and trade openness in Ecuador's manufacturing industries

This study takes an empirical look at whether Ecuador's trade liberalization in the 1990s increased or decreased the productivity of Ecuadorian manufacturing establishments for the period 1997-2003. This research applies robust estimation procedures on micro-level data, controlling for a number of other economic events that may have affected productivity during the period under study. The study takes a particular look at how both exporters and import-competing sectors respond to trade openness. The results suggest evidence of a positive and significant effect of trade openness on the productivity of manufacturing industries in export-oriented industries in the years after the implementation of trade reforms, but decreasing productivity after 2000. Increased aggregate productivity might be a result of both the most productive establishments producing output, and slightly increased own-plant's productivity.     

FDI,openness and income

This is an empirical study of the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on income. It presents cross-country evidence that inward FDI is positively correlated with income. In addition, an instrument for FDI is constructed to address the issue of endogeneity. The results show that instrumental-variables (IV) estimates of the impact of FDI on income are positive and greater than OLS estimates, similar to the findings on trade in Frankel and Romer (). The evidence in this paper suggests that inward FDI contributes to higher income, and favours the argument of Irwin and Terviö () that trade openness is subject to measurement error – in particular, trade is an imperfect proxy for many income-enhancing interactions between countries.     

Trade openness,urbanization and CO2 emissions: Dynamic panel data analysis of middle-income countries

Using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach of Pesaran, Shin, and Smith [1999. “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 94 (446): 621–634], this article attempts to empirically examine the heterogeneous effects of trade openness and urbanization on CO₂ emissions in 55 middle-income countries over the period from 1992 to 2012. We find that trade openness has a benign effect on the environment in the short run, but a harmful effect in the long run. Meanwhile, our results show that urbanization has a negative and significant impact on CO₂ emissions both in the short and long run, implying that urbanization improves environmental quality. The results are robust even after controlling for a number of factors such as economic or non-economic factors.     

贸易开放度与经济增长的实证分析

新贸易理论认为贸易开放提高了投资效率,从而带动了经济增长。本文在新经济增长理论框架下,采用贸易开放度内生化技术进步模型,实证分析了贸易开放度对投资效率及经济增长的影响。结果表明贸易开放度与经济增长之间不存在简单的线性关系,贸易开放度通过提高投资效率促进了经济增长,但是这种促进作用的变动趋势是呈倒"U"形的,即随着贸易开放度的扩大这种促进作用先增强后减弱。     

Trade openness,tax reform and tax revenue in developing countries

This article investigates empirically whether the effect of tax reform (involving the progressive replacement of trade tax revenue with domestic tax revenue) in developing countries' tax revenue performance (measured by tax revenue‐to‐GDP ratio) depends on the degree of trade openness of these countries. The analysis has used an unbalanced panel data set of 95 developing countries over the period 1981–2015 and the two‐system GMM approach. Results suggest that tax reform is positively and significantly associated with tax revenue performance in developing countries, with the magnitude of this positive effect increasing as countries experience a higher development level. Additionally, and more importantly, countries that further open up their economies to international trade enjoy a higher positive effect of tax reform on tax revenue than countries that experience a lower degree of trade openness. Therefore, these findings should help dissipate the concerns of policymakers in developing countries that greater openness to international trade would further erode their tax revenue, including by lowering their international trade tax revenue. In fact, the implementation of an appropriate tax reform in the context of greater trade openness would generate higher tax revenue, while concurrently allowing countries to reap the well‐known benefits of international trade.     

Education, trade and investment liberalizations

Empirical evidence suggests a two-way causality between skilled labor and inward direct investment. I construct a general equilibrium model that allows for endogenous firm and plant-location decisions and the endogenous accumulation of skilled labor. I examine the effect of an education subsidy when trade is liberalized and investment is restricted and vice versa. For an initially skilled-labor-scarce country, I show that an education subsidy under investment liberalization can jump the economy to a high-level equilibrium, and that it may be possible to remove the subsidy completely and remain at the superior equilibrium.     

Impact of foreign direct investment volatility on economic development in the Indian subcontinent

Using annual data over forty years from 1975 to 2014, this study investigates the gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the conditional volatility of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Indian subcontinent. The study reports the rising trends of both FDI and GDP and documents that the greater‐than‐expected FDI due to innovative shocks or policy innovations positively influences conditional volatility of FDI which, in turn, positively contributes to the economic growth/development. The conditional volatility used in the study is the variance derived from the diagnostically selected exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model. The study also reports the causality of both the FDI and its volatility across borders. More specifically, it reports bidirectional causality of FDI between India and Pakistan but unidirectional causality from Bangladesh to both India and Pakistan. It further documents that this volatility is persistent in all the economies and that it spillovers from both India and Pakistan to Bangladesh. The evidence attributes the economic development in the Indian subcontinent to the economic or policy innovations in attracting FDI. The findings of this study thus contribute to the literature by documenting the contrasting evidence that the volatility along with the trend of FDI contributes to the economic development and by reconciling the contrasting evidence.     

贸易开放度、经济增长与劳动密集型产业结构调整

本文通过构建联立方程模型对贸易开放度、劳动密集型产业结构和经济增长之间的统计关系进行实证,同时利用VAR模型检验三者之间的相互作用。研究结果表明:经济增长不利于劳动密集型产业的发展,同时劳动密集型产业的发展也不利于经济增长;但贸易开放促进经济增长的同时阻碍了劳动密集型产业的发展。本文研究的政策含义是,当前政府应该优化劳动密集型产业结构,促进要素资源的合理配置;政府外贸政策的重心应该放在改变出口产业结构,使之朝着有利于转变经济增长方式的方向转变。     

国际贸易理论的演进逻辑:贸易动因、贸易结构和贸易结果

国际贸易理论历经古典贸易理论、新古典贸易理论、新贸易理论、新兴古典贸易理论和新新贸易理论五个阶段,主要回答三个基本问题:贸易动因、贸易结构和贸易结果。依据不同的假设,贸易理论对影响贸易的边界条件的解释各不相同,对贸易动因解释也不相同;贸易结构从行业间贸易、行业内贸易发展为企业间贸易,国际贸易正在向全球化下的企业分工演变;贸易结果是国际贸易得以持续展开的效果,生产力提升是最终的结果。基于三个基本问题,比较各种国际贸易理论,揭示各种国际贸易理论的局限性,并做出评价。     

汇率、贸易开放度与经济增长:短期波动与长期均衡——基于自回归分布滞后模型的经验研究

文章通过构建自回归分布滞后模型研究了汇率波动情况下贸易开放度与经济增长的长期关系,然后建立误差修正模型对两者之间的短期关系进行了刻画,重点考察了1978-2008年我国贸易开放度与经济增长在不同阶段的影响机制。经验分析结果表明,外商直接投资和贸易开放度对经济增长的短期效应大于长期效应;而人民币实际汇率对于经济增长的效应,则是长期效应大于短期效应。当外商直接投资、贸易开放度和人民币实际汇率造成的短期波动偏离长期的均衡时,经济增长能够通过自动调整趋于稳定。     

对外直接投资与美国服务贸易的发展

一般认为,对外直接投资活动(FDI)对贸易的持续增长将起到十分重要的支撑和推动作用。本文选用了美国1970年至2003年的相关数据,通过建立自回归模型,拟合后发现这个结论在美国的服务业领域也成立。进一步运用Granger因果检验方法,发现两者之间还存在着互为因果的关系。然而,通过对统计数据的分析,同时也直观地发现,在美国服务业内的对外直接投资与对外贸易在进出口上的同向相关性并不明显。其原因可能是各国对服务业的限制措施所造成的扭曲和直接投资的贸易替代效应所致。     

时间价值与国际自由贸易新论

时间是一个特殊的经济学变量,时间投资的正确与否将影响收益的大小。而把时间投资中的新概念——时间机会成本和边际时间机会成本引入国际自由贸易中,以时间投资收益和时间机会成本的大小为标准,来分析贸易双方的利益得失和分配,将使国际自由贸易的发展方向更加明确化。所以这种全新的分析模式将为国际自由贸易理论的研究开创美好的未来。     

Exchange rate volatility in Latin American and the Caribbean region: Evidence from 1985 to 2005

Using a total of 28 Latin American and Caribbean countries, this study finds a negative relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility. The econometric tool for this specific analysis is the widely used gravity model, in a panel data context. A similar condition is detected between inbound foreign direct investment and exchange rate volatility. The results of the study support the hypothesis that significant exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the economies of the region and that achieving exchange rate stability should be a goal of policy makers in the context of Latin America and the Caribbean.     

我国与马来西亚经贸关系的现状、问题与对策

我国和马来西亚是友好近邻,近年来双方在经贸领域进行了卓有成效的合作。两国之间的进出口呈现两位数的增长,工程承包和劳务合作也得到了蓬勃发展。马来西亚已成为我国在东盟最大的贸易伙伴。在进一步加强与马来西亚经济合作的过程中,应大力实施走出去战略,选择合适的产品开拓马来西亚市场,以合资和代理的方式进入,积极开展国际工程承包和劳务合作,充分发挥马来西亚华人组织在经济合作中的作用。     

“二元”对外直接投资与贸易结构:机理与来自我国的证据

本文针对我国对外直接投资的现实情况,从对外直接投资的二元路径——顺梯度OFDI与逆梯度OFDI(Outward Foreign Direct investment),研究了二元对外直接投资影响贸易结构的机理,并利用我国1984-2008年的数据进行了验证,研究表明,我国对外直接投资较大地促进了我国贸易结构的升级;国内产业结构优化与研发利用率提高均能优化我国贸易结构;汇率水平的变动在我国贸易结构长期调整中并无显著影响。     

贸易条件、技术进步与发展战略选择

本文在Cypher&Dietz(1998)模型的基础上进一步讨论了存在贸易的技术进步效应时,发展中国家贸易条件恶化的经济增长效应。我们分析的结论是,在出口部门存在很强的技术进步效应时,贸易条件恶化不会引发“贫困化增长”,Cypher&Dietz(1998)的结论只是在不存在技术进步效应或该效应很小时才成立。由初期比较优势决定的自由贸易模式即使最终会引发“贫困化增长”,但存在一个时间过程,在此之前贸易仍能促进经济的发展,因此最适合的发展战略应为“动态比较优势战略”。     

二元体制松动、预防性储蓄与中国的外贸顺差

本文利用产出——吸收分析法试图对中国外贸顺差的成因提供一种合理的解释。我们认为,二元体制松动,作为对国际产业转移的一种回应,弱化了劳动力流动的限制,刺激了工业品的生产。与此同时,传统农业部门中剩余劳动力的存在,使得该部门的产量未因劳动力的流出而减少。此外,本文肯定了消费在宏观经济中的核心地位,并运用预防性储蓄理论解释了我国长期以来消费不足、储蓄过旺的深层次原因。     

贸易开放、人力资本与中国能源消耗

文章从贸易开放对中国能源消耗产生的影响这一基本问题出发,将人力资本纳入分析视角,研究了贸易开放、人力资本对中国能源消耗的直接效应和交互效应。利用中国2001-2012年30个省份的统计数据,运用固定效应回归模型和面板门槛回归模型进行了实证研究,结果表明：贸易开放对能源消耗的直接效应呈倒“U”型曲线关系,即在贸易开放水平较低时,提高贸易开放水平将增加能源消耗量并提高能源消耗强度;当贸易开放水平较高时,提高贸易开放水平反而能促使能源消耗量和能源消耗强度降低。人力资本对能源消耗的直接效应显著为负,提高人力资本要素积累将促进地区经济增长从物质资本驱动型向人力资本驱动型转变。贸易开放与人力资本对能源消耗的交互效应在人力资本处于较高的门槛区间时显著为负,说明贸易开放在人力资本较高的地区将促进该地区专业化生产节能降耗的人力资本密集型产品,从而降低地区能源消耗量并提高能源利用效率。     

浙江省外贸出口发展现状及对策分析

近年来,浙江省外贸出口规模不断扩大,出口商品结构进一步优化。"一带一路"建设的推进、跨境电子商务的发展、自贸区的设立都为浙江外贸发展创造了有利条件,但是同时也面临着前所未有的挑战。在阐释了浙江出口贸易发展现状的基础上,重点分析外部环境变化给浙江出口带来的机遇和挑战,并提出相应对策建议,旨在促进浙江出口贸易持续健康发展。