Endogenous market structures and the gains from foreign direct investment

This paper discusses the gains from liberalizing foreign direct investment (FDI) in a two-country setting with endogenous market structure. We investigate two different scenarios. In the first scenario, headquarters costs are large in the foreign country so that the industry is located in the domestic country only. In this case, multinational and national firms may coexist and market concentration may make FDI welfare improving for the foreign country and welfare reducing for the domestic country. In the second scenario, headquarters costs are symmetric and firms will be located in both countries. Here, profitable FDI activities lead to mutual welfare gains, irrespective of market structure effects.     

The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms

This paper argues that when the exchange rate and projected sales in the host country are jointly determined by underlying macroeconomic variables, regressions of FDI flows on both exchange rate levels and volatility are subject to bias. The results demonstrate that a multinational firm's response to exchange rate volatility will differ depending on whether the volatility arises from shocks in the firm's native or host country. It is the first study to depart from the representative-firm framework in an analysis of direct investment behavior with money.     

Old problems remain, new ones crop up: Political risk in the 21 century

Despite the fact that most developing countries now generally welcome multinational companies, political risk still represents a huge concern for international business. In fact, multinational companies today probably face a much broader array of risks than during the nationalization wave of the 1960s and 1970s. To substantiate this claim, a theoretical framework is presented herein which outlines the key causal relationships in the political risk landscape. It is explained why a discernible attitude change in the developing and emerging world does not necessarily equal a reduced overall level of political risk. To illustrate the framework and the complexity of the political risk phenomenon, a number of recent case examples are presented from the international bauxite and aluminium industry—an industry whose wide-ranging value chain, international focus, global significance, and natural exposure to risks make it very suitable for analysis. The conceptual discussion and the empirical examples presented in this article suggest that political risk is now surely a highly complex, multidimensional phenomenon. This trait poses major challenges for the global business community, particularly in terms of accurately assessing these risks.     

Foreign direct investment in emerging markets and acquirers’ value gains

We investigate the shareholder wealth effects of 306 foreign direct investment (FDI) announcements by UK firms in seventy-five emerging markets (EM). Our results show that acquirers enjoy highly significant gains during the announcement period of FDI. Perhaps surprisingly, the highest gains are accrued to acquirers investing in countries with high political risk and high corruption ratings. The type of asset acquired has also a significant effect on the gains of acquirers’ shareholders, with the highest gains accrued to acquirers of physical assets. Also, investments in physical assets in EM with a high corruption rating elicit the highest gains. We contend that UK firms following resource-seeking strategies in EM with a high corruption rating are facilitated access to resources on favorable terms and this is viewed positively by the market participants. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and the endogenous choice to expand internationally.     

外国直接投资、外国证券投资与经济增长:以美国为例

本文以美国1972-2002年的统计数据为例,在建立VAR模型的基础上通过脉冲响应曲线和方差分解表对流入美国的外国直接投资(FDI)、外国证券投资(FPI)和经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明流入美国的FDI和FPI均有助于美国经济的增长。但相对而言,美国经济增长更加依赖于外国证券投资,研究还发现流入美国的FDI与FPI之间关系紧密,两者之间存在积极的良性互动关系,且FPI对FDI的影响明显大于FDI对FPI的影响。     

How Do Franchise Ownership Structure and Strategic Investment Emphasis Influence Stock Returns and Risks?

Franchisors seek to maximize firm value by managing investments both in tangible and intangible assets and in the mix of company and franchised outlets, yet little is known about how investors respond to shifts in these strategic decisions. Our goal is to assess the impact of these decisions on shareholder value within franchise systems through panel-data models. Specifically, we provide evidence on how investors in publicly traded franchises evaluate both the ownership structure and the strategic investment emphasis between intangible assets (e.g., brand) and tangible assets (e.g., plant and property). We find that an increase in the proportion of franchised units is negatively associated both with stock returns and idiosyncratic risk. In contrast, an increase in the emphasis on strategic investments in intangible assets is positively associated both with stock returns and idiosyncratic risk. Moreover, strategic investment emphasis moderates the strength of the effect of franchise ownership structure when firms franchise internationally. Overall, this research provides a novel empirical examination of franchising economics and has managerial implications for franchised channel structure.     

The complex integration strategies of multinationals and cross country dependencies in the structure of foreign direct investment

The behavior of many multinational enterprises is not well described by existing models of foreign direct investment (FDI). Firms often follow strategies that involve vertical integration in some countries and horizontal integration in others, a strategy known as complex integration. This paper presents a three-country model that is used to analyze why firms might follow a strategy of complex integration. My analysis reveals that complex integration strategies create complementarities between potential host countries that have important implications for the structure of FDI. The analysis also shows that falling transport cost between countries may increase the importance of complex integration strategies.     

The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004

We construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for 1970-2004. We describe our estimation methods and key features of the data at the country and global level. We focus on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios. We document the increasing importance of equity financing and the improvement in the external position for emerging markets, and the differing pace of financial integration between advanced and developing economies. We also show the existence of a global discrepancy between estimated foreign assets and liabilities, and identify the asset categories accounting for this discrepancy.     

国际直接投资理论的发展脉络及最新进展

跨国公司活动的增加为国际直接投资的研究提供了更多的素材,也引发了更多的思考,这一趋势一方面体现为研究方法的丰富化;另一方面体现为研究视角的多元化。本文运用与前人不同的梳理方式对国际直接投资理论的发展脉络进行了回顾,而且有侧重地介绍了这一领域最近几年的研究成果,并在适当评论的基础上对未来研究方向进行了展望。     

Empirical asymmetries in foreign direct investment and taxation

This paper assesses the sensitivity of the operations of multinational corporations (MNCs) to host country taxation. The empirical analysis is based on two different measures of MNC activity by U.S. majority-owned foreign affiliates: panel data for aggregate real gross product in manufacturing that originates in a given host country and micro data for a single year regarding the likelihood of a firm locating in a given host country. The empirical estimates indicate that investment geared toward export markets, rather than the domestic market, is particularly sensitive to host country taxation, that this sensitivity appears to be greater in developing countries than developed countries, and that it is becoming greater over time.     

An information-based trade off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment

The paper develops a model of foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments (FPI). FDI enables the owner to obtain refined information about the firm. This superiority, relative to FPI, comes with a cost: a firm owned by the FDI investor has a low resale price because of asymmetric information between the owner and potential buyers. The model can explain several stylized facts regarding foreign equity flows, such as the larger ratio of FDI to FPI inflows in developing countries relative to developed countries, and the greater volatility of FDI net inflows relative to FPI net inflows.     

Resource-based FDI and expropriation in developing economies

Globally, foreign direct investment (FDI) assets are expropriated more in resource extraction industries compared to other sectors. Despite the higher apparent risk of expropriation in resources, countries more likely to expropriate also have a larger share of FDI in the resource sector. An incomplete markets model of FDI is developed to account for this puzzle. The type of government regime is stochastic, with low penalty regimes facing a relatively low, exogenous cost of expropriating FDI, and country risk is measured by the variation in these costs across different regimes. The key innovation of the model is that the government, before the regime type is known, is able to charge different prices to domestic and foreign investors for mineral rights. Granting cheap access increases FDI and reduces the country's share of resource rents, increasing the temptation to expropriate in a relatively low penalty regime. In very high-risk countries, subsidizing resource FDI increases the total value of output by raising investment, and the net gains from expropriating in a low penalty regime outweigh the rents foregone under a high penalty one. However, a stochastic resource output price results in relatively low-risk countries restricting FDI inflows to the resource sector instead — “windfall profits” in this sector raise incentives to expropriate when prices are high, yet minimization of the ex ante risk of expropriation is preferred owing to the relatively high penalty for expropriating. These results imply a higher average share of resource-based FDI in countries most likely to expropriate, while resources account for a high share of expropriated assets compared to the sector's global share of FDI. We show that the model is able to reconcile observed patterns of foreign investment and expropriation for a sample of 38 developing and emerging economies.     

Does foreign direct investment really enhance China's regional productivity?

While foreign direct investment (FDI) is widely recognized as one of major driving forces on promoting the regional economic growth in China, its impact on regional productivity is unclear and less systematically investigated. This article investigates the effect of FDI on regional productivity in China. Specifically, we adopt a newly developed measure of total factor productivity (TFP) to deal with the endogenous inputs choice accompanied with various measures of FDI, enabling to provide robust estimates on the TFP effect of FDI. Moreover, we examine the role of absorptive ability on the FDI-TFP nexus and explore the existence of FDI spillover effect on productivity across regions. The potential difference in productivity effect of FDI between coastal and non-coastal regions is also examined. Based on the province-level panel dataset over the period 1997–2006, the various estimates show that the overall productivity effect of FDI is significantly positive, while this effect depends heavily on the host region's absorptive ability. Technological gap is found to associate with a significantly negative coefficient along with the finding that FDI tends to exhibit a higher impact on productivity in coastal regions than their non-coastal counterparts, highlighting a widening income inequality between coastal and non-coastal regions in China.     

Cherries for sale: The incidence and timing of cross-border M&A

This paper develops a model of cross-border M&A activity that features firm-level productivity shocks and endogenous export activity. We show that foreign firms will be relatively more attracted to targets in the domestic country that had high productivity levels that induced them to invest in large export networks several years prior to acquisition, but subsequently experienced a negative productivity shock (i.e., cherries for sale). From the theory we derive a dynamic panel binary choice empirical model to predict cross-border M&A activity, and find strong evidence for our hypotheses connecting the evolution of firm-level productivity to the ultimate targets of cross-border acquisitions using French firm-level data.     

FDI Through Cross-Border Acquisitions and Greenfield Investment in Poland

Abstract

This article looks at differences in the impact on Poland of cross-border acquisitions versus greenfield foreign direct investment activity. It starts with an analysis of the main determinants of foreign direct investment and the employment opportunities that can be created from such activity. The employment contribution of each entry mode is considered, and also the impact of the entry mode on local sourcing practices and the main reason behind the particular investment. The long-term versus the short nature of investment will also be considered. The findings compare the impact of firms at the time of their entry with the more recent situation. Evidence suggests that greenfield sites have much to offer with regards to employment opportunities and value-adding activities, though acquisitions have the benefit of better access to local knowledge.     

我国企业对外直接投资的区位选择

我国理论界关于是否应该将发达国家作为我国企业对外直接投资的重点目标问题上产生的不同意见,在相当程度上反映了我国对外直接投资区位选择所面临的对外直接投资动因与能力的矛盾。实证检验证实我国企业目前的对外直接投资区位还是以与我国经贸关系密切、市场规模相对狭小的国家和地区为主。但从长远看,发达国家和地区应成为我国企业对外直接投资区位选择的重点目标。     

The Impact of Changes in the Political and Economic Environment on Foreign Direct Investment Opportunities in Romania

Abstract

This study reports findings of a survey including 139 Finnish and 97 Austrian companies active in Eastern Europe. The study focuses on two major areas in the firm's business activities in Eastern Europe, namely on market strategies-the timing of market entry, market selection, entry modes and motives-and company performance. The number of market entries has increased after the transition, but the majority of business activities still take place in geographically-close countries. Companies have gradually started to use more high-commitment modes of operation, but contrary to our expectations, high commitment modes were also frequently used in more unstable markets. Company performance in Russia and especially in other countries of Eastern Europe was in general clearly lower than in domestic markets and foreign markets in general. Against expectations, firm size, dependence on international markets, length of operation, and mode of operation in Eastern Europe did not significantly influence the performance. However, firms which concentrated on Russian markets on a continuous basis performed much better than other firms.