Reply to Gebhard Kirchgässner

In this reply to Kirchgässner, four issues are addressed: (1) the extent of double counting in attempts to reconcile estimates of the shadow economy based on the survey method and estimates based on the MIMIC (cum currency demand) approach, (2) advantages and disadvantages of the survey method, (3) of macro methods like the MIMIC approach and (4) the potential role of plausibility checks of estimates from the MIMIC approach with the survey method.     

The Shadow Economy in German Regions: An Empirical Assessment

Despite the increasing number of contributions to the literature, regional variations of the shadow economy have been hardly studied. This article analyses the determinants and derives the size of the shadow economy on the district level in Germany. I find that an inferior local labour market and the burden of taxation significantly contribute to the existence of the shadow economy, while a better enforcement of tax rules and regulations has the potential to deter such activities. Districts in the affluent south of Germany experience on average smaller shadow economies.     

Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries

Abstract. In most OECD countries the policy instrument of choice to prevent people from working in the shadows has been deterrence. While deterrence is well founded from a theoretical point of view, the empirical evidence on its success is weak: tax policies and state deregulation appear to work much better. The discussion of the recent literature underlines that in addition to economic opportunities, the overall situation in the labor market and unemployment are crucial for an understanding of the dynamics of the shadow economy.     

How Does FDI Respond to the Size of Shadow Economy: An Empirical Analysis under a Gravity Model Setting

Using a panel study under a gravity model setting focusing on data from 1999 to 2007 for Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, we show that the size of the shadow economy in the host economy relative to the investor economy can play a significant role in attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows. We further explore nonlinearities in how shadow economy differentials affect incoming FDI. Our results match the theoretical predictions which highlight that opportunities for tax evasion can have an impact on the activities of Multinational Corporations.     

Measuring the Underground Economy with the Currency Demand Approach: A Reinterpretation of the Methodology,With an Application to Italy

We contribute to the debate on how to assess the size of the underground (or shadow) economy by proposing a reinterpretation of the traditional Currency Demand Approach (CDA) à la Tanzi. In particular, we introduce three main innovations. First, we take a direct measure of the value of cash transactions—the flow of cash withdrawn from bank accounts relative to total non‐cash payments—as the dependent variable in the money demand equation. This allows us to avoid unrealistic assumptions on the velocity of money and the absence of any irregular transaction in a given year, overcoming two severe critiques to the traditional CDA. Second, in place of the tax burden level, usually intended as the main motivation for non‐compliance, we include among the covariates two direct indicators of detected tax evasion. Finally, we control also for the role of illegal production considering crimes like drug dealing and prostitution, which—jointly with the shadow economy—contributes to the larger aggregate of the non‐observed economy and represents a significant component of total cash payments. We propose then an application of this “modified CDA” to a panel of 91 Italian provinces for the years 2005–08.     

论集群经济中的税收竞争效应

文章首先简单回顾标准/经典国际税收竞争模型的主要内容,然后引入集群经济这一新的经济概念,对集群经济下国际税收竞争模型及其结果进行重新审视,得出的结论是集群经济中的政府倾向于对企业进行补贴,而当存在集群经济的地区与不存在集群经济的地区展开税收竞争时,均衡状态下前者的税率将高于后者.结合我国的实际情况,文章最后提出了集群经济中政府参与税收竞争的一些政策建议.     

A Measure of the Shadow Economy in a Small Economy: Evidence from Household‐Level Expenditure Patterns

In this paper we measure the size of the shadow economy in North Cyprus by using micro‐econometric approaches and then calculate its implications on national accounts and fiscal balances. There is a relatively new strand of literature that focuses on comparing income–expenditure patterns of households to calculate the degree of underreporting of income levels by self‐employed and privately employed individuals, as compared with public servants. We use the 2008 Household Budget Survey of North Cyprus and analyze the differences in food consumption patterns among three kinds of employees: self‐employed, privately employed, and public. We found that self‐employed and privately employed individuals underreport their income levels by 20 percent and 13 percent, respectively, compared with publicly employed individuals. This has important implications for the aggregate economy in North Cyprus, where we estimate that the shadow economy created by underreporting is as much as 8.6 percent of GNP and 11.1 percent of total tax revenue.     

The size and development of the shadow economy: An empirical investigation from states of India

Using the state level data from India, this paper investigates the size of the hidden economy in Indian states over the period 1974/75 to 1995/96. Our analysis has shown that after liberalization of the Indian economy in 1991/92, the growth in the size of the hidden economy has decreased on an average. Our results show that the growth in the size of the hidden economy is approximately 4% less in scheduled election years than in all other years. We also demonstrate that the growth is significantly lower in those states where the coalition government is in power. An increased growth of newspapers and the literacy rates translate to cleaner governance, e.g. to fewer amounts of shadow economy activities in the economy.     

循环经济认知误区的实证分析

随着传统经济增长模式危机的出现，世界各国纷纷提出并开始建立循环经济。循环经济作为一种崭新的社会经济发展模式，人们对其认识还存在种种误区，其中认为循环经济是一种最终实现“全新的封闭式的零排放的资源利用方式”、“可解决一切环境问题”的观点最为典型。那么，是否真的存在完美的全社会物质循环呢？实现这种循环的代价是什么？本文以物质循环为基本假设条件，应用扩张环境分析用投入产出模型对社会实现全循环的可能性进行了理论探讨．并以日本为例应用该模型对日本物质循环现状和在现有条件下实现全循环的可能性及其成本进行了实证分析，论证了在现有条件下实现全社会完美的物质循环的难点。     

The money demand and the loss of interest for the euro in Romania

We generalize a money demand micro-founded model to explain Romanians’ recent loss of interest for the euro. We show that the reason behind this loss of interest is a severe decline in the relative degree of the euro liquidity against that of the Romanian leu. Our empirical findings also suggest that the two currencies are rather complements than substitutes, providing thus evidence for a reduced level of monetary integration of Romania with the Euro area. These results put into question the interest for the euro adoption in the next period.     

论开放经济下的货币供给与国际收支

从开放经济下的宏观经济总量的关系入手，分析开放经济条件下的国际收支和货币供给关系，并在此基础上，对开放经济对我国转轨经济时期的货币政策框架影响进行分析探讨。     

国外促进低碳经济发展的税收政策及启示

欧盟、美国、日本等国家在促进低碳经济发展方面都有本国的税收政策,应基于中国国情并借鉴国外先进经验,着力打造适合中国国情的低碳经济。为此,需进一步完善税收政策,坚持有所为、有所不为的原则,从而实现经济增长与可持续发展。     

Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Tax Multipliers

We analyze whether popular measures of narrative tax shocks can be treated as relevant instruments for observable endogenous tax series of interest. We find that narrative tax measures are only weakly correlated with cyclically adjusted tax revenues for the US and the UK. Using weak‐instrument robust inference, narrative tax measures often yield insignificant estimates of tax multipliers. We conclude that the literature currently understates the uncertainty associated with estimating the tax multiplier using the narrative approach.     

Corporate labour share of income and the shadow economy: a cross-country analysis

This article addresses a link between the size of the shadow economy and the corporate labour share of income in the European Union. Fixed individual and time effects models suggest that there is a negative link between these two indicators. The coefficients are statistically significant if we control for other variables related to labour markets, such as unemployment rates or strictness of employment protection (regular contracts). Depending on the exact model specification, our estimates suggest that an increase in the shadow economy by 1% of GDP results in a 0.5–1% decline in the labour share of income in the corporate sector.     

论网络货币的法律性质

网络货币是伴随网上交易而产生的一种全新的支付手段。目前,对于网络货币的法律性质尚无一个统一的观点,代表性的观点是商品说、代金券说、电子货币说和货币说四种,这几种观点存在着一定的片面性;各网络服务商发行的网络货币不是电子货币,也不是新型的货币,而是一种准货币。正确认识网络货币的法律性质,对于促进网络货币和网络经济的健康发展具有十分重要的意义。     

民营经济的功能发挥

民营经济与私有经济概念内涵与外延的界定,有人着眼于所有制,有人则强调经营方式,而作者认为它兼具这两方面的内容。中国民营经济的崛起,是因为它具有适应市场经济和推动市场经济的机制,还有着促进技术进步的机制。民营经济的功能最重要的就是推动了以市场为取向的改革———民营经济成为从计划经济向市场经济转轨的强有力的推动者;民营经济对市场经济的推动还是全方位改革的促进者;民营经济的发展还将成为政治民主的催化剂。     

关于中国税收征管优化的几个基本问题的探讨--新制度经济学视角下的思考

税收征管影响着税收制度的有效运行。长期以来,对税收制度的研究忽视了税收征管因素,但税收征管现实存在并发挥巨大作用。本文从新制度经济学的视角对税收征管进行了理论上的分析,并结合中国的实践,提出了具体的税收征管优化路径选择。     

促进海洋循环经济发展的财税政策研究

发展海洋循环经济是实现海洋经济可持续发展的必由之路,作为重要政策手段之一的财税政策,其在宏观调控、社会资源合理配置等方面起着不可或缺的作用。文章动态回顾了海洋循环经济的发展情况,针对我国现行发展海洋循环经济财税政策的不足,提出了综合运用各类财税政策手段促进海洋循环经济发展的若干建议,以期更好地为促进海洋循环经济的发展提供借鉴和参考。     

论循环经济与市场经济的协同性

循环经济与市场经济之间具有协同共进的关系.两者都遵循基于自然资源稀缺性的成本与效益原则.循环经济能够从根本上消除环境外部不经济性,促进市场经济规范有效.循环经济发展模式体现社会经济环境效益的统一,是社会经济的理性选择.     

二元经济下的集聚效应分析

本文基于农村工业化过程中存在严重的集聚不足之现实,以城市集聚经济的相关理论为基础引入城乡分割的约束条件实证分析了城市与农村工业活动的集聚效应。结果显示,城乡分割导致工业活动在农村与城市的“集聚二元性”,而集聚程度及其效应存在明显的地区和城乡差异。提高外国地区集聚程度能改善生产效率,这预示不仅要关注整体经济发展水平,也要重视促进城乡经济的一体化,提高经济活动集聚程度,以缩小地区和城乡差距。