Blindfolded vs. Informed Ultimatum Bargaining – A Theoretical and Experimental Analysis

This paper analyzes blindfolded vs. informed ultimatum bargaining where proposer and responder are both either uninformed or informed about the size of the pie. Considering the transition from one information setting to another suggests that more information induces lower (higher) price offers and acceptance thresholds when the pie is small (large). While our experimental data confirm this transition effect, risk aversion leads to diverging results in blindfolded ultimatum bargaining where task‐independent strategies such as ‘equal sharing’ or the ‘golden mean’ are implemented more frequently.     

The Limitations of Experimental Design: A Case Study Involving Monetary Incentive Effects in Laboratory Markets

We replicate an influential study of monetary incentive effects by Jamal and Sunder (1991) to illustrate the difficulties of drawing causal inferences from a treatment manipulation when other features of the experimental design vary simultaneously. We first show that the Jamal and Sunder (1991) conclusions hinge on one of their laboratory market sessions, conducted only within their fixed-pay condition, that is characterized by a thin market and asymmetric supply and demand curves. When we replicate this structure multiple times under both fixed pay and pay tied to performance, our findings do not support Jamal and Sunders (1991) conclusion about the incremental effects of performance-based compensation, suggesting that other features varied in that study likely account for their observed difference. Our ceteris paribus replication leaves us unable to offer any generalized conclusions about the effects of monetary incentives in other market structures, but the broader point is to illustrate that experimental designs that attempt to generalize effects by varying multiple features simultaneously can jeopardize the ability to draw causal inferences about the primary treatment manipulation.     

Fairness Considerations in Labor Union Wage Setting – A Theoretical Analysis

We consider a theoretical model in which unions not only take the outside option into account, but also care about the performance of the firm and base their wage‐setting decisions on a firm internal reference, called the fairness reference. Two references, which measure the earnings situation of the firm, are considered – productivity and profits per worker. Wage and employment outcomes as well as the degree of wage rigidity depend on the size of the fairness reference relative to the outside option. A high fairness reference leads to wage pressure and real wage rigidity, whereas a low fairness reference leads to wage moderation and real wage flexibility. An increase in the weight on the fairness reference amplifies these deviations from the standard model.     

Rating Agencies – An Experimental Analysis of Their Remuneration Model

Does it matter who pays for ratings? Yes, but not for the rating agencies’ behavior. These are the findings of our experiment where we analyze the effect of the remuneration model of rating agencies on their assessments as well as on investors’ and issuers’ behavior. First, we find that rating agencies’ assessments are comparable whether the agency is (partially) paid by issuers, investors or solely by the experimenter. Issuers, on the other hand, more often do not return investor's trust when they or investors pay for ratings. Further, investors more often act according to the agencies’ recommendations when they have to pay for this information.     

房地产行业洗钱行为分析及监测

洗钱活动逐渐从金融机构向其他领域蔓延,房地产行业已成为洗钱的高发地。对比房地产行业洗钱的两大主体——腐败的公职人员和以民营企业家为代表的非公职人员的洗钱行为,结果表明:腐败的公职人员注重安全效用,常常通过能在短时间内利用他人名义的房地产交易活动洗钱,具有较强的隐蔽性;非公职人员则注重收益最大化,主要通过将非法资金注入企业经营,虚假报账,具有较强的欺骗性。     

晋升博弈中政府官员的激励与合作--兼论我国地方保护主义和重复建设问题长期存在的原因

过去大量的研究强调行政性分权和财政包干下地方官员的财政激励对区域经济发展及其互动的影响。本文建立了一个地方官员政治晋升博弈的简单模型 ,旨在强调地方官员的晋升激励对地区间经济竞争和合作的影响。由于政治晋升博弈的基本特征是一个官员的晋升直接降低另一个官员的晋升机会 ,即一人所得为另一人所失 ,这使得同时处于政治和经济双重竞争的地方官员之间的合作空间非常狭小 ,而竞争空间非常巨大。该模型理解我国区域经济竞争与合作问题提供了一个系统的视角和框架 ,它尤其有助于解释我国长期存在的地方保护主义、“大而全”的地区发展战略和地区间形形色色的产业“大战”和恶性竞争。     

塞尔维亚科技创新与技术转移激励政策评析

塞尔维亚是中东欧近几年来科技创新发展速度较快、技术转移成果较多的国家之一,其科技创新和技术转移相关的激励政策也随着科技水平的发展而不断完善和健全。塞尔维亚科技创新和技术转移激励政策在经费筹措和资助、科研成果商业化等诸多方面可圈可点,但仍存在民众信任度不高、资金分配制度不完善、对国际化创新合作的重视不足等问题。本文从科技创新和技术转移两个方面介绍了塞尔维亚科技创新和技术转移激励政策的现状、进展,并分析了其相关优势和亮点,同时也指出激励政策存在的一些漏洞,并作为对照,提出了对完善我国科技创新和技术转移激励政策的建议。     

基础设施影响农村经济发展的统计分析

Based on statistical analysis, this paper states that four types of rural infrastructure as roads, electrcity,communications, and education have statistically significant effects on agricultural production, nonagricultural production, and farmers‘ income in China. However, the specifics and the degrees of these influences are different.Therefore, different policies have to be implemented respectively to make full use of the limited funds in China.Meanwhile, the maturity level of rural infrastructure as with rural economic development has regional discrepancy.The levels of maturity decrease from east to west. it is urgent that the current weak situation of the rural Infrastructure in western China needs to be improved.     

Real Wages,Demand and Employment in the UK 1921–1938: A Disaggregated Analysis

This paper uses the Layard and Nickell model of the labour market to examine the determinants of employment at a sectoral level for the interwar UK economy. Sectoral level data permits examination of the differing responses to changes in the determinants of employment. Estimation of employment functions indicates significant elasticities with respect to aggregate demand variables across a wide range of sectors but less support for a negative real wage effect, particularly in those industries responsible for major losses in employment. The evidence is therefore more consistent with the low-aggregate-demand explanation of labour market behaviour than it is with the high-real-wage hypothesis.     

The Causal Effects of the Minimum Wage Introduction in Germany – An Overview

In 2015, Germany introduced a statutory hourly minimum wage that was not only universally binding but also set at a relatively high level. We discuss the short‐run effects of this new minimum wage on a wide set of socioeconomic outcomes, such as employment and working hours, earnings and wage inequality, dependent and self‐employment, as well as reservation wages and satisfaction. We also discuss difficulties in the implementation of the minimum wage and the measurement of its effects related to non‐compliance and suitability of data sources. Two years after the minimum wage introduction, the following conclusions can be drawn: while hourly wages increased for low‐wage earners, some small negative employment effects are also identifiable. The effects on aspired goals, such as poverty and inequality reduction, have not materialised in the short run. Instead, a tendency to reduce working hours is found, which alleviates the desired positive impact on monthly income. Additionally, the level of non‐compliance was substantial in the short run, thus drawing attention to problems when implementing such a wide reaching policy.     

Stabilizations, crises and the “exit” problem – A theoretical model

Exchange-rate-based stabilizations, even if successful, usually lack credibility initially. This is reflected in high (ex post) real interest rates and some degree of real exchange rate appreciation. Empirical observation suggests that wage inflation declines smoothly over time whilst interest rates are volatile. Our model captures these features and provides insights into: the eruption of exchange rate crises after a long period of apparently successful stabilization; the potential advantages of a heterodox approach; when to delay a stabilization attempt; and the optimal date for “exit” to a floating exchange rate.     

On the Dynamics of Recycling and Natural Resources

We study the dynamic impact of recycling through its effect on the production set of the economy and its relationship with natural resources. The contribution of renewable and recyclable resources for sustainability is studied. Although in the short run recycling may alleviate resource scarcity, in the long run it is not enough to compensate for the exhaustibility of non-renewable resources and the possibility of obtaining non-decreasing output paths crucially depends on the extent to which production rests on renewable resources. Furthermore, recycling interacts with natural resource growth, surprisingly not always favoring sustainability. The Production and Recycling Function is a generalization of the traditional production function, providing an integrated view of regular production and recycling and representing the production set of the economy when a recycling technology is available.     

Quasi‐experimental Estimates of the Effect of Class Size on Achievement in Norway*

Using a comprehensive Norwegian administrative database, we exploit independent quasi‐experimental methods to estimate the effect of class size on student achievement at the end of lower‐secondary school. Identification based on maximum class‐size rules and population variation (and variations on these methods) give very similar estimates. We cannot reject that the class‐size effect is equal to zero, and can rule out effects as small as 1.5 percent of a standard deviation for a one‐student change in class size during three consecutive years.     

Joint Production and the Structure of Technology: A Generalization

In this paper, we have a peek inside the black box of technology in an attempt to get a better understanding of the concept of joint production. We introduce the notion of input and output subtechnologies; these are then used as building blocks to define various types of production processes, either joint or nonjoint. Thus, in the 2×2 case, we are able to identify up to 36 different production structures, some of which are well known, but most of which are new. These are all described in the primal quantity space as well as in the dual price space. Comparative statics results for the 2×2 joint production process are derived.     

家族权威的配置效应分析与实证检验

文章将家族权威界定为管理权威、股东身份权威、专家权威和信息权威,并从理论与实证两个方面论述和检验了家族权威的配置效应。研究结论表明:家族管理权威与股东身份权威存在互补关系,与专家权威存在互补关系,与纵向信息权威、横向信息权威也都存在比较显著的互补性;将家族管理权威配置给拥有实际权威的物质资本所有者能够更大程度地改进企业的经营绩效,即实际权威具有强化管理权与所有权的激励相容的作用。     

Fiscal Multipliers and Their Relevance in a Currency Union – A Survey

The article reviews the debate on government spending multiplier and provides a detailed discussion of the underlying economic mechanisms, focusing on the role of the state of the business cycle and the monetary policy reaction. Special emphasis is on the effects of fiscal policy within a currency union and its implications for the euro crisis.     

连续监测方法在全国碳市场应用的挑战与对策

全国碳市场启动在即,探索适合的碳排放量化方法具有重要现实意义。本文介绍了国内外连续监测方法的应用现状,比较分析了基于核算的方法与基于连续监测的方法的优缺点,剖析了在我国碳市场中应用连续监测方法面临的问题和挑战。本文建议在推广连续监测方法之前,需要选取试点设施获取实际应用经验,建立监测、报告、核查和认证等一系列配套的支撑体系,并解决与传统污染物监测设备的一致性问题以及与核算方法确定的历史排放数据的一致性问题。     

Ghana and the international cocoa market, 1956–1969 : A simulation model

This paper investigates the impact of the international cocoa market on Ghana between 1956 and 1969 by constructing and estimating an econometric model and simulating the effects of fluctuations in selected cocoa variables on her export revenue. In particular, it assesses repercussions of changes in the real incomes of major cocoa-consuming countries, of changes in the rest of the world's cocoa output, and of changes in the real price paid to Ghanaian cocoa farmers. Our results emphasize the vulnerability of Ghana to shocks emanating from the international economy, and the importance of dynamic lagged adjustment in the cocoa market.     

Measurement of Dematerialization/Materialization: A Case Analysis of Energy Saving and Decarbonization in OECD Countries, 1960–95

This article establishes a conceptual framework for dematerialization and materialization, and develops a complete decomposition model for measuring them. Based on our conceptual framework and method, dematerialization in the energy use of the OECD from 1960 to 1995 has been analyzed. During this period, the increase in energy demand was 3597.95 Mtoe. However, the improvement of energy efficiency decreased energy demand by 827.20 Mtoe, and structural shifts decreased energy demand by 139.04 Mtoe. Thus, real energy demand only increased by 2631.71 Mtoe, and the energy saved was 966.24 Mtoe and the energy saving rate was 17.98% for this period. The energy saving rate was about 0.56% per year. In the same period, the increase of CO₂ emissions was 9672.95 Mton. The fuel switching, the improvement of energy efficiency, and structural shifts decreased CO₂ emissions by 1899.67, 2150.31, and 379.07 Mton, respectively. Real CO₂ emissions only increased by 5243.93 Mton, the decarbon was 4429.02 Mton and the decarbonization rate for the period was 29.57%. The decarbon rate was about 0.997% per year. These results show that significant dematerialization has been achieved in the OECD during this period.     

Xenophobia and the Size of the Public Sector in France: A Politico-economic Analysis

Anti-immigrant feeling (xenophobia) among voters was a key factor in the second-place victory of Jean Le Pen's National Front Party in the 2002 French national election. Here, we study the effect of anti-immigrant sentiment on the equilibrium position of political parties on the economic issue, which we take to be the size of the public sector. We model political competition among three parties (Left, Right, and Extreme Right) on a two-dimensional policy space (public sector size, immigration issue) using the PUNE model. We calibrate the model to French data for the election years 1988 and 2002, and show that politics have changed significantly over this period, from being centered primarily on economic issues, to non-economic issues such as immigration and security/law-and-order. We estimate that in 2002, the effect of voter xenophobia was to reduce the voters' choice of public-sector size between 11% and 28% of one standard deviation of the population's distribution of public-sector size ideal points, from what it would have been, absent xenophobia.