Modelling inbound international tourism demand to Portugal

In this paper the Johansen cointegration analysis of time series is used to model the Portuguese inbound international tourism demand from five countries of origin—France, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain and UK. This approach examines the long‐run relationships between the demand for holiday visits and the variables that affect holiday travel such as income, destination prices and travel costs (airfares and road costs). Demand functions, for each country of origin, are estimated using annual data on tourism flows from 1975 to 1997. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate using the copula-based GARCH model

This paper investigates dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate, using the case of China, and from a new perspective by using copula–GARCH models. The empirical results show that the volatility of exchange rate is not a determinant factor in fluctuation of China's inbound tourism demand from the countries being studied. Furthermore, only Russia exhibits risk-adverse behaviour with extreme SUR depreciation, or CNY appreciation associated with an extreme decline in arrivals. Third, introducing the tail dependence and dynamic dependence between growth rates of tourism demand and exchange rate add much to the explanatory ability of the model. The findings of this study have important implications for destination manager and travel agent as it helps to understand the impact of exchange rates on China inbound tourism demand and provide a complementary academic approach on evaluating the role of exchange rates in the international tourism demand model.     

Migration and inbound tourism: an Italian perspective

This paper investigates the impact of migration on Italian inbound tourism flows in a dynamic panel data framework. Arrivals, expenditure and nights from 65 countries are analysed for the period 2005–2011. The migration variable is defined at both origin and destination in order to assess the pushing and pulling forces. Estimates were performed using both aggregated flows and flows disaggregated to separate the visiting friends and relatives (VFRs) from two non-VFR categories, namely holiday and business. The results suggest the presence of a strong migration-tourism nexus, which clearly goes beyond VFRs. Moreover, the effects of the different determinants vary according to the way in which the tourism market is segmented and, within each segment, to the way in which tourism demand is measured.     

The determinants of inbound tourism to Malaysia: a panel data analysis

Malaysia has experienced a significant increase in tourist arrivals over the past 10 years. The challenge is to sustain this growth and therefore it is important to understand the factors influencing inbound tourism to Malaysia. This paper investigates the economic and non-economic determinants of international tourist flows to Malaysia using the generalized method of moment. The annual panel data set includes the number of arrivals from 33 countries during the period 2000–2012, and the number of possible explanatory variables. It is found that habit persistence (word of mouth), income, hotel room and political stability have a positive impact on tourism demand for Malaysia. Also, results indicate that the estimated coefficients of substitute tourism price in the model are negative. This implies that the five alternative destinations are complementary destinations to Malaysia. In addition, the dummy variable for Visit Malaysia Year in 2007 and severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 had positive and negative impacts on tourism demand for Malaysia, respectively.     

Spillover Effects of Tourism Consumption Between Galicia and the Rest of Spain

Analysing the spillover effects is crucial for small and open regions where productive leakages are relevant, as could be the case of Galicia within the Spanish context. Therefore, the main aim of this paper is to examine the spatial interactions between Galicia and the rest of Spain economies that tourism consumption involves, for the period 2001–2007. An interregional input–output model is applied for the year 2005. Additionally, three different kinds of tourism consumption are considered: two inbound and a domestic one. Among other results, we found that around 1% of the gross value added of the small economy depends on the tourism consumption in the rest of the country. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of economic policy on international tourism demand: the case of Abenomics

Since the 2008 global financial crisis and resulting recession, many countries have been following unconventional monetary policies. Little information is known on how these policies may influence tourism demand. This study starts to fill this gap by investigating the impact of the Japanese economic policy known as Abenomics on South Koreans’ travel to Japan, the largest inbound market for Japan. Per capita gross domestic product, relative prices, and exchange rates are significant determinants of Japanese inbound tourism. As these variables have been influenced by Abenomics, one can infer that Abenomics is associated with a significant increase in tourist arrivals from South Korea. Findings highlight the importance of government economic policy in stimulating international tourism demand through its impact on the economy.     

Exploratory Space–time Analysis of Inbound Tourism Flows to China Cities

The integration of space and time generates much closer interactions between geography and other social sciences in general while providing new perspectives for the role of geography in tourism flow studies. This paper aims to apply exploratory space–time analysis to provide insights into inbound tourism flow patterns in China's cities over the period of 2000–2009 using city‐level Geographical Information System datasets. First, this paper ascertains that there exists geographic neighborhood effect at city level by testifying significantly positive spatial autocorrelation. The hot spots and temporal stability are identified. The hot spots are locally concentrated in metropolitan areas. Local Markov matrix has also shown significant transitions with negative or positive influence of geographic neighbors upon a city. Specifically, three‐dimensional surface is created to visualize tourism flows. The spatial inequalities have the pattern of ‘the east more dense than the west, the south more dense than the north’. There simultaneously exist spatial agglomeration and spatial dispersion. The intensity of spatial agglomeration has become stronger. At the same time, smaller peaks of tourism flow centers developed around the main cities and spread toward surrounding cities. These potential tourism flow centers have gradually emerged and grown larger. Furthermore, the space–time covariance matrix uncovers correlation, which shows strong regional integration over years. Eight hundred and ninety links are identified and visualized. Two hundred and sixty nine links forming 10 spatial clusters represent strong positive correlation. One hundred and thirty‐four links are negative correlation, which is about 15.06 per cent of all links. In conclusion, our comprehensive evidences offer deeper insights and have important policy implications. These enable the tourism‐oriented governmental agencies, as well as the tourism industry professionals, to better understand the changes of inbound tourism flows in China's cities and relevant tourism partners/competitors for cities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does freedom of the press enhance inbound tourism?

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the effects of the freedom of the press on inbound tourism in 160 countries for the period from 1995 to 2016. By using the fixed-effects, the Hausman–Taylor, and the dynamic panel data estimation techniques, we show that a higher level of the freedom of the press promotes inbound tourism. The main findings are robust to consider the countries at the different income level, the inclusion of the various control variables, using the different measures of the freedom of the press, excluding the outliers, and excluding the observations in the different regions.     

Travel and tourism competitiveness index: The impact of air transportation,railways transportation,travel and transport services on international inbound and outbound tourism

The objective of the study is to examine the impact of air transportation, railways transportation, travel and transport services on international inbound and outbound tourism in a panel of 19 tourists - oriented countries, over a period of 1990–2014. By applying principal component analysis, the study constructs travel and tourism competitiveness index for inbound and outbound tourism. The main constructs of inbound tourism index include international tourists' arrival, tourism receipts, receipts of passengers' transports items and travel items while the constructs of the outbound index include international tourists' departure, tourism expenditures, and expenditures for passengers transport and travel items. The result of panel Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) regression shows that the presence of air transportation, railways transportation, and trade openness positively affect inbound tourism index, while travel and transport services negatively affect tourism competitiveness index. The causality results confirm the bidirectional relationship between inbound tourism, air transportation, railways passengers carried, trade openness and travel and transport services, while there is a unidirectional causality running from inbound index to railway goods transported, from air transport freight to trade factor, and from travel services to air transport freight. Outbound tourism index confirmed the bidirectional causality relationship with air transportation, railways transportation, and travel and transport services, while the causality running from outbound index to trade factor, from air transport passenger carried to travel services, and from railway goods transported to trade and transport services, which support the unidirectional causality relationship between them. The variance decomposition results show that air transportation freight is the contributor that largely influences inbound-outbound tourism, while railways passengers carried and trade openness has the least share to influence inbound and outbound tourism index for the next 10-year period. The impulse response function indicates that air transportation, railways transportation, trade openness and travel services will positively impact on inbound truism while travel and transport services will positively affect outbound tourism for the next 10-year period. The study concludes with the importance of transportation sector that deem desirable to promote tourism worldwide. The concentration of different modes of transportation including air transportation, railways transportation, and travel and transport system would helpful to advance international tourism.     

Estimating the effects of regional political climate on Russian tourists to Spain

Regional political climate has become an increasingly significant force influencing travel behaviour in many tourist destinations. This paper attempts to address impacts of regional political stability on Russian inbound tourism into Spain within a demand model framework and using a cointegration approach. The results show that visa openness as well as political instability and civil unrest in substitute destinations attract more Russian tourists, boosting economic growth and reducing unemployment rates in Spain. On the contrary, international political confrontation results in disadvantage to Russian tourism demand to Spain.     

Modelling tourism flows through gravity models: a quantile regression approach

Gravity models are widely used to study tourism flows. The peculiarities of the segmented international demand for agritourism in Italy are examined by means of a novel approach: a panel data quantile regression. We characterize the international demand for Italian agritourism with a large data set, by considering data of 33 countries of origin, from 1998 to 2010. Distance and income are the major determinants, but we also found that mutual agreements and high urbanization rates in countries of origin are associated with larger flows of incoming tourists.     

Modelling tourist flow association for tourism demand forecasting

The purpose of this study is to examine tourism demand for Singapore from 1995 to 2013 by six major origin countries which belong to three different regions. Unlike prior tourism research, we take into account the dependence relations among the different tourist flows via copula. Copula is a statistical model of dependence and measurement of association. Specifically, we investigate the association between two tourist flows in each region. Based on empirical copula estimation, the Frank function has been identified as the most appropriate to capture the pairwise dependence structures of tourist flows. The copula-based approach combined with econometric models is proposed for tourism demand analysis that can be used to predict tourist arrivals. We apply the copula-ARDL and copula-ECM frameworks to generate joint forecasts of tourist arrivals from three regions. The findings show that the forecast performance of the Frank copula-based model outperforms the benchmark model which corresponds to the independence structure (no association) of tourist flows.     

Tourism demand: a panel data approach

This paper estimates the coefficients of the determinants of international tourism demand for the period 1995–2014 in the USA using the gravity framework. The analysis is based on a panel dataset of tourist arrivals among 14 countries using autoregressive distributed lag methods. The results show real gross domestic product, consumer price index, real exchange rate and certain specific events have a significant impact on international tourism demand. The income elasticity suggests that tourism is non-luxury goods, and prices and real exchange rate have negative relation to tourist arrivals. We also find that tourism transport infrastructure is a significant determinant of tourist arrivals into USA. This implies that infrastructure to reinforce taste formation is important to attract more international tourists to USA. In addition, results also suggest implications for public and private tourism authorities.     

Impact of international tourism on the Chinese economy

Since 1990, international tourism to China has grown dramatically, as has the rest of the Chinese economy. Its impact on the Chinese economy is estimated for 1997, the last year for which sufficient input–output, social accounting and tourist expenditure data are available when the paper was written. With these data, a so‐called type II input–output model is constructed, which enables to estimate direct, indirect and induced impacts. The results show that 1.64% of gross domestic product, 1.40% of household income and 1.01% of Chinese employment is dependent on international tourism. The differences are explained by the sectoral composition of the tourist expenditures, together with the sectoral differences in capital/labour ratios, labour productivity and backward linkages. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

International price competitiveness of Australia's MICE industry

A special‐interest tourist market that holds out great promise for continued growth well into the next century is that of MICE (meetings, incentives, conventions, exhibitions). At the same time, changing prices in particular destinations relative to others are regarded as one of the most important economic influences on destination shares of total international tourism flows. The question arises as to the price competitiveness of major competing MICE destinations. Although earlier research has recognised that a destination's price competitiveness differs according to a visitor's country of origin there has been relatively little attention paid to tourism price competitiveness from the perspective of those having different motives for travel. This paper has four major aims: first, to provide a method by which price competitiveness of tourism by journey purpose can be estimated; second, to construct price competitiveness indices that measure, absolutely and relative to major competitors world‐wide, the price competitiveness of Australia's MICE tourism industry; third, to compare Australia's price competitiveness as a MICE destination with its price competitiveness for total inbound tourism; fourth, to discuss the implications of the results for travel and tourism decision‐makers in both the private and public sectors. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

International tourism and economic development in South Africa: a Granger causality test

One of the major objectives of macroeconomic policies in many developing countries is sustained economic growth, and South Africa has been striving to achieve and maintain this in various ways. One of these is through international tourism. Although international tourism contributes to the growth of many economies, it is in turn, impacted by growth in many developed countries. Real gross domestic product (GDP), international tourism earnings, real effective exchange rate and exports were analysed within a multivariate vector auto regressive model using annual data covering 1980–2005. The main focus of this study therefore was to demonstrate the direction of causality between international tourism earnings and long‐run economic growth of South Africa, among other variables, using Granger causality analysis. The result obtained showed a unidirectional causality running from international tourism earnings to real GDP, both in the short run and in the long run. The error correction mechanism carried out also supported this causality. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Persistence Characteristics of Tourism Arrivals to Australia

This paper examines the degree of persistence in international monthly arrivals to Australia by using data disaggregated by tourism‐source countries. We employ two competing models, which are very general in the sense that they include (seasonal and non‐seasonal) unit roots as particular cases of interest. The first model is based on a long‐memory process in the non‐seasonal part of the series along with a short‐memory autoregressive (AR) seasonal structure. The second model is based on a long‐memory process for the seasonal structure of the series, the short‐term evolution being described through a non‐seasonal AR(1) process. Results based on the residuals and forecasting assessment indicate that the second model is preferable in terms of fitting the data. We provide persistence ranking of all countries included in the study and discuss the managerial implications of the main findings. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anticipating Italian census tourism data before their official release: a first solution and its implementation to Piemonte,Italy

Tourism is a complex and highly competitive sector. In this scenario, incoming tourism flows represent one of the key indicators for public institutions, willing to adopt an informed decision‐making process for resource allocation. The accurate and timely knowledge of both the inter‐regional and the foreign component at a sufficiently detailed geographical level of such flows allows a better strategical, tactical and operational planning of marketing activities. The paper describes a methodology to complete the database of the official statistical data on tourism flows with an estimate of missing data, which are originated by non‐respondent accommodation structure. The methodology has been applied to the inbound tourism flows into Piemonte, Italy. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inbound tourism and long-run economic growth

There is an upsurge of literature investigating the relationship between inbound tourism expansion and economic growth with special emphasis on developing countries. Some countries – such as Spain and Italy – can be taken as examples of demonstrating such a successful trajectory. This paper provides an empirical investigation of the evolution of the Spanish and Italian economies and their respective tourism sectors from the 1950s and 1960s, respectively. This research is theoretically based on the literature on demand-based growth and the methodology adopted is that of the integration, cointegration and multivariate Granger causality tests. The results show the influencing role of inbound tourism for both economies.     

A cointegration analysis of bilateral air travel flows: The case of international travel to and from the United States

Demand for international air travel has risen over the past decade causing international visitation to the US to reach a record high in 2012. This paper assesses the dynamic impacts of GDP, exchange rate, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks on bilateral air travel flows between the US and its 11 major travel and trading partners. An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach is employed to estimate short- and long-run relationships between variables. Long-run results demonstrate foreign GDP as the major determinant of demand for inbound travel to the US and US GDP is a crucial factor affecting demand for outbound travel from the US. These findings support a strong linkage between economic growth and demand for international air travel. The real exchange rate has relatively little impact on the bilateral air travel flows. The US dollar appreciation against foreign currencies is found to reduce demand for inbound travel to the US, while having mixed effects on outbound travel from the US. In the short-run, economic growth tends to be a primary factor influencing international travel flows to and from the US. The 9/11 market shock has a detrimental short- and long-run effect on the bilateral air travel flows, implying that the impact of 9/11 is prolonged in international air travel markets.