Learning-by-doing and the sources of productivity growth: A dynamic model with application to U.S. agriculture

The significance of learning to productivity growth is formulated within a dynamic adjustment-cost framework. Explicitly treating the acquisition of knowledge as a firm-specific capital good entering the production function along with other conventional inputs, the dynamic optimization model integrates the learning-by-doing hypothesis with technical change, scale, and disequilibrium input use effects in the aggregate productivity analysis. The theoretical framework is applied to examining the dynamic components accounting for the growth of U.S. production agriculture over the 1950–82 period. The results imply a less important role for technical change and assign a substantial role to the previously unmeasured contribution of learning-by-doing to the growth of aggregate agriculture industry.The editor for this paper was Melvyn Fuss.     

Teacher shortages and the business cycle

The ability of the public sector to recruit skilled workers is important for the quality of public sector services. Centralized and rigid pay systems in the public sector might reduce labour supply and lead to shortages of qualified personnel in areas and periods with strong outside labour markets. This paper shows that teacher shortages measured by the share of teachers without approved education are strongly procyclical in Norway. Using a large panel of Norwegian local governments for 1981–2002 and exploiting the rigid wage system, we find a sizeable negative relationship between teacher shortages and the regional unemployment rate.     

Internal and external restructuring over the cycle: a firm-based analysis of gross flows and productivity growth in Portugal

This paper discusses the role played by internal restructuring vis-à-vis external restructuring in industry productivity growth, arguing that the contribution of these two components is expected to be sensitive to the economic cycle. The study describes gross flows (job and output) over a period of one decade, and analyses the productivity differential among continuing, entering and exiting firms in the Portuguese manufacturing sector. The results of the decomposition of industry productivity growth suggest that the share of external restructuring is stronger in recession, while internal restructuring seems to be predominant in expansion. The strong and positive contribution of the net entry effect, in 1991–1994, was not followed by any between and cross effects of equivalent magnitude in the 1994–1997 sub-period. The within effect is, as expected, stronger when output growth is at its peak, but in no case large enough to turn productivity growth procyclical.

Innovation and productivity in knowledge intensive business services

This paper studies empirically the relationship between the sources of knowledge, innovation and productivity in Knowledge Intensive Business Services using French micro data and sheds some new light on the production of knowledge and on effects of innovative output on firm productivity. Both an innovation function and a production function augmented with dummy endogenous innovation are estimated. Three estimators which control for endogeneity of the dummy innovation are employed: the first is a maximum likelihood estimator of the equations’ system while the other two are built in the instrumental variables framework. These estimators give useful complementary information because of the usual efficiency-robustness tradeoff comparing system-equations and single-equation estimators. We find that innovation is frequent in Knowledge Intensive Business Services and has a strong and positive effect on productivity. As in manufacturing, the main determinant of innovation is formal knowledge resulting from R&D or from acquisitions of equipment, patents or licenses.     

U.S. productivity in agriculture and R&D

This paper examines the impact of R&D on multifactor productivity in the U.S. agricultural sector over the 1910–1990 period. We use the Bennet–Bowley indicator to measure agricultural productivity based on a multiple output-multiple input technology. We demonstrate the relationship between the price dependent Bennet–Bowley indicator and the Luenberger productivity indicator which is constructed from directional distance functions without requiring price information. These performance measures are dual to the profit function which arguably makes them especially useful in the agricultural setting. We employ time-series techniques to investigate the effect of R&D on the pattern of productivity growth. We find that we cannot reject the presence of a cointegrating relationship between the two series and that productivity growth in the U.S. agriculture responds positively to R&D expenditure with a lag of between four and ten periods.

State of the art in business analytics: themes and collaborations

In this study, we illustrate the most recent stage in the scholarly development of the field of Business Analytics. Using around 23,000 research publications collected from the Web of Science, we network-analyzed four types of dataset that include keywords, titles, institutions, and countries. It is noteworthy that we found a thematic cluster focusing on analytical techniques and tools, particular with the rapid dissemination of “big data”-related studies. It is not surprising that universities and institutions in advanced countries in the West still occupy the central position of the collaboration network. However, we can discern a global shift toward certain developing and transitional economies in the world science base.     

Globalization and business cycle transmission

The paper uses long-run GDP data for developed countries drawn from Maddison [Maddison, A. (2003). The world economy—Historical statistics. Paris: OECD Development Centre] to generate deviation cycles for the period from 1870 to 2001. The cyclical deviates are examined for their bilateral cross-correlation values in three separate periods, those of the first globalization wave (1870–1914), the period of the “bloc economy” (1915–1959) and for the period of the second globalization (1960–2001). Cluster analysis is applied and the McNemar test is used to test for the relative coherence of alternative groupings of countries in the three periods. The bloc economy period emerges as one that features some well-defined sub-global clusters, where the second globalization period does not, the first globalization period lying between the two in this respect. The second globalization period shows a generally higher level of cross-correlations and a lower variance than the other two periods. The features uncovered suggest that the second globalization period is indeed one that comprises a more inclusive world economy than ever before.     

Using the Intranet as a business productivity tool

By now most, if not all, of us are familiar with the Internet. We can use it to send messages to our friends and business associates. We can send attached data files to those who need the information. We can download updates to our software or get new programs. We also can search the Web for information on an endless array of topics. The objective of this presentation is to familiarize you with the broad spectrum of business functions that can be significantly enhanced by the use of Internet technology. This is certainly one way to build your knowledge chain for success. This article is meant to stimulate your thinking about what this tool might be used for in your environment but will leave the technical issues of how to do that to other experts.     

Search in the product market and the real business cycle

Empirical evidence suggests that most firms operate in imperfectly competitive markets. We develop a search-matching model between wholesalers and retailers. Firms face search costs and form long-term relationships. Price bargain results in both wholesaler and retailer mark ups, which depend on firms' relative bargaining power. We simulate the general equilibrium model and explore the role of product market search frictions for business cycles. We conclude from the simulation exercise that incorporating product market search structure and shocks improve the standard real business cycle model to reproduce US business cycle fluctuations.     

Income inequality and the business cycle: A threshold cointegration approach

This paper investigates the impact of various socio-economic variables on various cohorts of the income distribution. We use asymmetric cointegration tests to show that unemployment and immigration shocks have real impacts on income inequality. In addition, using threshold test results we are able to show that positive and negative shocks to the economy do not have symmetric effects nor do the impacts of these shocks impact income quintiles uniformly.     

Riskiness,endogenous productivity dispersion and business cycles

In the data, cross-sectional productivity dispersion is countercyclical at both the plant level and the firm level, see e.g. Bloom (2009). I incorporate a firm׳s choice of risk level into a model of firm dynamics with real business cycle features to explain this empirical finding both qualitatively and quantitatively. In the model, in every period, each firm chooses the investment amount and the risk level associated with a production project every period. All projects available to each firm have the same expected flow return, determined by the aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to the firm׳s productivity, and differ from one another only in their risk. The endogenous option of exiting the market and the limited funding for new investment jointly play an important role in motivating firms׳ risk-taking behavior. The model predicts that, in each period, relatively small firms are more likely to take risk and hence exhibit a higher exit rate, and that the cross-sectional productivity dispersion, measured as the standard deviation of the realized individual component of productivity, is larger in recessions.     

Detrending,stylized facts and the business cycle

The stylized facts of macroeconomic time series can be presented by fitting structural time series models. Within this framework, we analyse the consequences of the widely used detrending technique popularised by Hodrick and Prescott (1980). It is shown that mechanical detrending based on the Hodrick–Prescott filter can lead investigators to report spurious cyclical behaviour, and this point is illustrated with empirical examples. Structural time-series models also allow investigators to deal explicitly with seasonal and irregular movements that may distort estimated cyclical components. Finally, the structural framework provides a basis for exposing the limitations of ARIMA methodology and models based on a deterministic trend with a single break.     

The business cycle in the G-7 economies

In this paper the Hodrick–Prescott filter is used to decompose real GDP for the G7 countries into cyclical and trend components. The resulting series of cyclical components are then examined for static relationships, using correlations and graphs; long-run relationships using autoregressive-distributed lag models; and short-run relationships, using error–correction models. The main result is that the patterns of cyclical behaviour changed following the oil price shocks in the 1970s. Since 1980, cyclical fluctuations have been smaller as a result of a decline in synchronisation of the cycles in the G7. Two separate cycles seem to be developing since 1990. One is for Germany, Italy and France, whilst the other is for the US, UK and Canada. Within each of these groups there are both long-run and short-run relationships between the cyclical components of GDP.     

Inflation is not dead: sweet and sour spots in the business cycle

This paper considers whether the current low inflation rates in the UK are due to'the death of inflation'(because of structural changes to the economy, as claimed in a recent book) or should instead be interpreted as part of a business cycle which is largely monetary in origin.     

Technology catching-up and regulation in European regions

This paper analyses the effects of the intensity of regulations in the product and labour markets on the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) for 121 European regions. A technological catch-up model is estimated for the period 1995–2007. We use the spatial lag of X (SLX) model to capture possible spatial interactions across spatial units. Our empirical findings show that lower levels of regulation are associated with higher TFP growth. Lower barriers to entrepreneurship and lower bureaucratic costs have a positive effect on productivity growth. Corruption raises operational costs, distorts the allocation of resources and negatively affects innovation activities, thereby reducing TFP growth. Further liberalization in the labour market (in terms of hiring and firing regulation, working hours regulation and employment protection legislation) has a significant positive effect on the growth of TFP. In addition, both regional technological and regional human capital have a positive impact on the TFP growth in European regional economies.     

Creative destruction over the business cycle: a stochastic frontier analysis

This paper examines the within-industry distributions of jobs created and destructed across plants in terms of technical efficiency, technical efficiency change, scale effect, and technical change. It further investigates how these distributions vary with economic activity. By applying the stochastic frontier analysis to plant-level longitudinal data on Taiwan??s 23 two-digit manufacturing industries spanning the period 1992?C2003, we find that jobs created (destructed) are disproportionately clustered at plants with lower technical efficiency but higher rate of technical change. A fall in economic activities is associated with a statistically significant decrease (increase) in the fraction of newly created (destructed) jobs accounted for by plants with a higher rate of technical change, indicating that creative destruction is more pronounced during economic contractions.     

Assessing output and productivity growth in the banking industry

This paper assesses the evolution of output and productivity in the Greek banking industry for the period 1990–2006. Three main categories of bank output were estimated based on modern theoretical approaches, while for the estimation of output and productivity (partial and total factor) we relied on the index number method (Tornqvist index). We also considered the effect of labor quality on banks’ productivity and the contribution of total factor productivity to bank output growth. Bank output and labor productivity outpaced considerably the respective GDP growth and labor productivity of the Greek economy during the period under examination. Capital and total factor productivity have also improved remarkably mainly since 1999, due to the structural changes that took place within the industry, capital (mainly IT) investments and improvement in the quality of human capital.     

Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong

This paper develops a two-agent, two-sector, open-economy DSGE model with a housing-market sector and a borrowing constraint. Contrary to standard conventions, domestic households are allowed to invest in foreign housing and vice versa. Using Bayesian methods, the model is applied to data for Hong Kong. We identify strong and robust housing wealth effects, and show that property prices are mainly driven by intratemporal preference perturbations rather than by disturbances in financial frictions or price mark up shocks. These disturbances also explain a non-negligible part of the volatility of consumption, GDP and employment.     

Multi-country real business cycle models: Accuracy tests and test bench

This paper describes the methodology used to compare the results of different solution algorithms for a multi-country real business cycle model. It covers in detail the structure of the model, the choice of values for the parameters, the accuracy tests used in the comparison, and the computer program specifically developed for performing the tests.     

Sources of growth in Indonesian agriculture

Indonesia sustained an average increase in agricultural output of 3.6% per year between 1961 and 2006, resulting in a more than fivefold increase in real output. This paper constructs Tornqvist-Thiel indices of agricultural outputs, inputs and total factor productivity (TFP) to examine the sources of growth in Indonesian agriculture over this period. The paper extends previous work on measuring productivity change in Indonesian agriculture by assembling more complete data on cropland and expanding the commodity coverage to include cultured fisheries in addition to crops and livestock. It also accounts for the contribution of the spread of rural education and literacy to agricultural growth. Results show that Indonesia pursued both agricultural intensification to raise yield, especially for food crops, and extensification to expand crop area and absorb more labor. Productivity growth accelerated in the 1970s and 1980s but stagnated in the 1990s once “Green Revolution” food crop varieties had become widely adopted. TFP growth resumed in the early 2000s led by diversification into non-staple commodities such as tropical perennials, horticulture, livestock and aquaculture. Agricultural extensification continued to be an important source of growth in many of parts of the archipelago where previously forested areas were converted to cropland. Human capital deepening, in the form of the spread of literacy and education in the farm labor force, made a modest but sustained contribution to agricultural productivity growth.