Renewable enery-the path to sustainability

This article seeks to address some lingering debates within sustainability studies by revealing the connections between renewable energy,consumption and sustainability.Using data from 30 OECD countries,the article amines the connections via regression and geospatial analysis Findings from the quantitative analysis indicate that about 50% of the variation in sustainability is accounted for by the degree of renewables consumption.The geospatial analysis visually illustrates the intimate connections between the two variables.Theoreticallv,renewable energy,relates to sustainability in three dimensions.The first dimension is economic.Relying on traditional fossil fuels eventually will bring our economy to a stop.Renewable energies,however,are able to secure our energy supply into an indefinite future.The second dimension links to ethics.To leave an intact planet to future generations is a moral responsibility of our generation.The current energy supply system is built on depletion of natural resources,while the sources of renewable energy are vast and constantlv replenished The last dimension is ecologic.How to allocate a porper apportionment of the global hiosphere between humankind and the other life on the earth is a critical issue related to sustainability.By using renewable energv,we can greatly reduce our impact on biodiversity and therefore strike a balance between humankind and other life.Overall the research suggests that developing renewables can and in many cases does sustain a nation's economic growth while simultaneously protecting the environment.It is a win-win situation.This finding undoubtedly points out a practical and realistic path for sudtainable development.     

英国可再生能源产业发展现状

英国在发展可再生能源方面具有良好的自然条件,特别在离岸风能及波浪能和潮汐能方面。但英国在开发这一潜力方面做得并不够好,目前,英国来自可再生能源的发电量占其全部用电需求的不足5％,远远落后于世界上一些先进国家。这其中有多方面的原因,如英国的入网电价相对便宜（与欧洲其他国家相比）,政府对可再生能源行业的财政补贴较少,以及在批准可再生能源项目方面遇到的延误和障碍较多等等。但是,随着近些年一系列鼓励政策和措施的出台,英国在可再生能源方面会有一个较为光明的前景,从而实现它确保能源安全及减少温室气体排放的双重目标。     

英国和德国可再生能源产业激励政策和实施效果的比较

英国和德国都是国际上控制气候变化和开发可替代能源的积极倡导者,但目前,两国在可再生能源的开发和利用方面存在较大的差距:截至2012年,英国和德国可再生能源在最终能源消费中的占比分别为4.1%和12.6%;可再生能源的总装机容量分别为15538和76017MW。究其原因,主要是由两国不同的能源政策造成的,英国采取的是类似配额制的可再生能源义务令制度,而德国采用的是固定上网电价机制。事实证明,德国的入网电价体系优于英国的可再生能源义务令,因为它在一定时期内能为可再生能源发电商提供稳定的回报。英国尽管在可再生能源的开发和利用方面落后于德国,但英国自然条件优越,开发利用可再生能源的潜力巨大,加上政府的积极努力,英国可再生能源产业的发展有望得到较大改观。     

Sustainable energy prices and growth: Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they don't, mostly — they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them.Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth.The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low in a growing economy.     

Challenging the human crisis: “The trilemma”

The great increase in world population in the coming century will result in a human crisis of worldwide proportions. A new concept for describing and proposing solutions to this crisis, called the Trilemma, is described by the authors. To feed large and growing populations, humankind is now being forced to make the difficult choice between producing sufficient food for the world population and preserving the environment, or generating economic growth, requiring the consumption of energy and natural resources. These difficult choices present the Trilemma, a new concept that is composed of three dimensions: economic growth, resources such as energy and food, and the environment. None of these three dimensions can be optimized individually as they are mutually interdependent.This paper describes a possible world energy condition in the 21st century. Three scenarios of this energy consumption are presented and compared with the possible energy supply at that time. This supply is estimated from the extrapolation of the renewable energy development of the past and the possible fossil fuel supply. The comparison of the energy supply and the energy consumption indicates that the annual rate of economic growth in the developed region would be only 1% if the gross national product (GNP) per capita of the developing region increases gradually from 1/26 of the GNP of the developed regions in 1990, to 1/10 in 2020, and finally to 1/3 in 2100.Another possibility is that if the GNP per capita of the developing region remains 1/26 of the GNP of the developed regions between 1990 and 2100, the economic growth rate in the developed region could be as large as 3%. In the latter case, an energy shortage would develop in the middle of the 21st century, even if the fast breeder reactor were fully operational by the year 2030. Energy technological developments in Japan are also described as a part of the possible countermeasures against the Trilemma.     

New technology and restructuring in the UK energy industry: the case of renewable energy

Among the justijcations for the UK government's electricity privatization programme was the suggestion that it would stimulate the development of a range of new supply options, including the UK's extensive renewable energy resource. This paper assesses the prospects for renewable energy technologies i n the UK after privatization. It finds that there is enthusiasm for renewables, but that the market alone will not stimulate renewables effectively or develop them appropriately, and that state support and regulation will be necessary.     

Renewable energy drivers: a panel cointegration approach

The expected gains from RES deployment to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) and the cut-off of external dependence of electricity sources could be important. However, it is crucial to understand the determinants of RES growth to help policymakers drawing effective energy polices, involving a commitment of both citizens and governments. In this paper, we use novel panel econometric tools (taking into account structural breaks and cross-section dependence) and find evidence of nonstationary issues and cointegration issues between renewable energy production and its drivers (CO₂ emissions, GDP per capita, energy use and dependency). The results thus reveal that non-stationary issues should be attended, otherwise they could be biased. Using suitable estimators (DOLS, FMOLS) with two different data sets and different proxies and taking common factors into account by MG estimates, we find that there is no environmental concerns effect explaining the growth of renewables in European countries. However, national revenues, energy consumption (demand effect) and energy dependency have a positive impact on renewables deployment. Considering these results, economic assistance (subsidies) might be a mean to increase further the renewables deployment in EU countries and education about renewables deployment is needed.     

Is energy consumption effective to spur economic growth in Pakistan? New evidence from bounds test to level relationships and Granger causality tests

The present study investigates the relationship between energy (renewable and nonrenewable) consumption and economic growth using Cobb–Douglas production function in case of Pakistan over the period of 1972–2011. We have used the ARDL bounds testing and Gregory and Hansen (1990) structural break cointegration approaches for long run while stationarity properties of the variables have been tested applying Clemente-Montanes-Reyes (1998) structural break unit root test.Our results confirm cointegration between renewable energy consumption, nonrenewable energy consumption, economic growth, capital and labor in case of Pakistan. The findings show that both renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption add in economic growth. Capital and labor are also important determinants of economic growth. The VECM Granger causality analysis validates the existence of feedback hypotheses between renewable energy consumption and economic growth, nonrenewable energy consumption and economic growth, economic growth and capital.     

Physical energy cost serves as the “invisible hand” governing economic valuation: Direct evidence from biogeochemical data and the U.S. metal market

Energy supply is mandatory for the production of economic value. Nevertheless, tradition dictates that an enigmatic “invisible hand” governs economic valuation. Physical scientists have long proposed alternative but testable energy cost theories of economic valuation, and have shown the gross correlation between energy consumption and economic output at the national level through input-output energy analysis. However, due to the difficulty of precise energy analysis and highly complicated real markets, no decisive evidence directly linking energy costs to the selling prices of individual commodities has yet been found. Over the past century, the US metal market has accumulated a huge body of price data, which for the first time ever provides us the opportunity to quantitatively examine the direct energy-value correlation. Here, by analyzing the market price data of 65 purified chemical elements (mainly metals) relative to the total energy consumption for refining them from naturally occurring geochemical conditions, we found a clear correlation between the energy cost and their market prices. The underlying physics we proposed has compatibility with conventional economic concepts such as the ratio between supply and demand or scarcity's role in economic valuation. It demonstrates how energy cost serves as the “invisible hand” governing economic valuation. Thorough understanding of this energy connection between the human economic and the Earth's biogeochemical metabolism is essential for improving the overall energy efficiency and furthermore the sustainability of the human society.     

Quo Vadis MRIO? Methodological, data and institutional requirements for multi-region input-output analysis

In order to understand wider sustainability impacts of consumption and to successfully promote and implement sustainable consumption and production policies, there is a need to capture the whole life-cycle impact of products and services across international supply chains. Multi-region input-output (MRIO) databases are a well described and suitable foundation for global sustainability analyses addressing a wide range of policy and research questions. In this paper we reflect on the reasons for the recent boom in MRIO compilation, summarise the current state of development and discuss future options for MRIO analysis. We list in detail the requirements for efficient and effective MRIO research and propose systemic and institutional changes. We deliberately try to go beyond existing ambitions for MRIO compilation and thus intend to stimulate discussion and to lay out the options for the future of MRIO research.     

中国可再生能源消费、经济增长与碳排放的动态关系

通过协整检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解,对1980—2009年中国的可再生能源消费、碳排放量与经济增长之间的动态关系、冲击效应和贡献度进行了分析。研究结果显示:可再生能源消费、经济增长与碳排放之间存在长期、稳定的协整关系;经济增长受其他变量的冲击均表现为正效应;可再生能源消费的冲击对碳排放的影响微弱,而经济增长的冲击影响较强而持续,且前期波动剧烈但后期平稳;受碳排放的影响,可再生能源消费的累积冲击效应为负,而且正负冲击效应交替出现。     

经济发展与能源产业政策协调研究

我国经济的发展和能源的高耗低效增长方式加剧了能源供需矛盾,能源的供需紧张关系成为制约我国经济发展的瓶颈。笔者首先对我国能源产业的发展状况进行了回顾,然后对能源产业所面临的突出问题进行深入分析,针对能源产业结构现状,提出了增加国内能源供应,加强能源的国际合作,适时调整能源国际贸易政策与重视国际石油期货市场作用等政策性建议。     

A Quantile Approach to Identify Factors Promoting Renewable Energy in European Countries

This paper analyses the impact of several factors on the use of renewable energy sources in a set of European Union countries, by applying a quantile regression approach. We find that different factors are effective for different levels of renewable energy commitment and the magnitudes of some effects evolve in accordance with the level of renewable energy sources used. Consequently, some policies that do not take into account the different stages could carry different effects. The results suggest that the lobbying effect of the established industries hampers the development of renewable sources, and that this effect is greater for lower initial level of renewable energy use. The results reveal that environmental concerns have not yet achieved enough pressure to stimulate major developments on renewables. We include two new drivers, geographic area and European Union Directive 2001/77/EC. That Directive was effective in signaling the commitment to renewables, namely for countries with lower renewables use.     

A matter of opinion—How ecological and neoclassical environmental economists and think about sustainability and economics

The differing paradigms of ecological and neoclassical environmental economics have been described in various articles and books and are also embedded in different professional associations. However, we cannot take for granted that the paradigm debates described in the literature are actually mirrored in exactly the same way in the perceptions and opinions of researchers looking at sustainability from an economic perspective. This paper presents empirical results from a German case study on how economists and others involved in sustainability research from different schools of thought think about the issues of sustainability and economics, how they group around these issues, how they feel about the current scientific divide, and what they expect to be future topics of sustainability research.We analyze the data using cluster analysis. Based on a literature survey, we generated forty sustainability economics-related statements and asked 196 sustainability researchers about their degree of agreement or disagreement with these statements. In evaluating our survey results, we discuss to what extent the clusters that we identified do—or do not—represent the two schools of thought of ecological and neoclassical environmental economics. We also propose some fields of research that can help to bridge the gaps amongst sustainability economics researchers while clearly marking others that are more suitable for a scientific ‘competition of ideas’. Key results of the study are: We identify two primary scientific clusters, one clearly confirming the existence of the ecological-economics school of thought, and the other largely capturing the neoclassical environmental view. Yet, there are some surprising exceptions: Both schools of thought share a conceptual definition of sustainability that is integrative in considering ecological, societal and economic dimensions (‘three pillar concept’) and is geared at preserving the development potentials of society. We also find a shared critique of ‘pure economic growth’ strategies in our sample. These shared opinions may provide bridging concepts between the schools of thought. Also both clusters agree with respect to a wide range of future fields of sustainability economics research. Yet, the research agenda of the ecological-economics cluster contains a large number of additional topics, primarily related to social, distributional and evolutionary aspects of sustainable development. Strong divides between the clusters that seem to be more suitable for a scientific competition of ideas are primarily related to the question of how to achieve sustainability, including appropriate environmental policies.     

Multi-scale integrated assessment of soybean biodiesel in Brazil

Developing counties are often believed to have excellent conditions for biofuel production, however studies aimed at assessing the sustainability of large scale biofuel programs have generally focused on a few variables related to one scientific domain and one scale. Contrary to this approach, this paper analyzes soybean biodiesel in Brazil using a parallel biophysical and economic assessment at different scales. A Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach is applied as a scenario analysis tool. A soybean biodiesel energy balance for the specific conditions of Brazil is included and the energy ratio turns out to be 1.09. This means that the energy delivered is higher than the energy invested, however the net energy is very low. The economic impacts are analyzed through input-output analysis. The results show that soybean biodiesel increases energy consumption per hour of work without a corresponding increase in economic labor productivity. Consequently the already low energy efficiency of Brazilian production could get worse. Although Brazil has large expanses of land, the substitution of 20% fossil diesel (i.e. just 3.3% of the country's primary energy consumption) with fully renewable biodiesel might destroy protected areas and forests and increase the GHGs emitted.     

能源消费与污染排放双重约束下的中国绿色经济增长

在当前中国转变经济增长方式、实践科学发展的紧迫形势下,在全球经济环境剧烈动荡的背景下,本文沿袭绿色GDP思想,讨论了以高能耗和高排放为特征的中国经济增长的驱动因素、可持续性问题以及能源消费和污染排放对经济增长约束的传导机制。为此本文构建了中国1995-2006年28个省的投入产出面板数据库,基于非参数环境生产前沿模型将中国经济增长进行了绿色分解,采用Tobit模型分析了能源消费和污染排放对经济增长约束的传导机制。分析表明:中国经济增长的可持续性正在逐年恶化。表现为要素投入是经济增长的主要驱动因素,绿色全要素生产率对经济增长的推动作用不明显,并呈现逐年下降的趋势。在能源、环境约束下,要避免走粗放型经济增长道路,转变经济增长方式是中国经济增长可持续发展的重要动力源泉。     

Socio-metabolic transitions in developing Asia

A possible sustainability transition in developing Asia needs to complement the ongoing transition from an agrarian to an industrial socio-ecological regime. As is known from other world regions, an agrarian-industrial transition involves a major increase in material and energy flows (corresponding to a 2-4 fold increase in the demand for raw materials and energy). The socio-metabolic profile of the South-East Asian region still shows relatively low material and energy consumption per capita, suggesting that major growth may follow. Infrastructures that are closely bound-up in bulk material flows (transport, energy and food sectors) will be critical to future developments. The paper illustrates the challenge and potential solutions from a number of case studies.     

Renewable electricity supply,infrastructure, and gains from international trade in electric current

113 countries report producing electricity from renewable sources and participate in the global energy transition. On the one hand more cables have been built recently; but on the other hand some countries are blocking electricity shocks technologically as supply shocks undermine the insurance function of their markets. This paper shows through a dynamic panel data analysis that the higher share of renewables in electricity production has increased imports and decreased exports of electric currents. This shows that trade currently helps dealing with fluctuations of supply, but temporary losses for recipients of shocks may require payments to keep the borders open. Keywords: Gains from trade, electric current, gravity, infrastructure.     

Accounting for Sustainable Development over the Long‐Run: Lessons from Germany

We construct long‐run sustainability indicators based on changes in Comprehensive Wealth – which we refer to as Genuine Savings (GS) – for Germany over the period 1850–2000. We find that German sustainability indicators are positive for the most part, although they are negative during and after the two World Wars and also the Great Depression. We also test the relationship between these wealth changes and a number of measures of well‐being over the long‐run: changes in consumption as well as changes in average height and infant mortality rates. We find a positive relationship between GS and our well‐being indicators over different time horizons, however, the relationship breaks down during WWII. We also test if the GS/Comprehensive Wealth framework is able to cope with massive disinvestment at the end of the Second World War due to war‐related destructions and dismantlement. We find that negative rates of GS were by and large avoided due to the accumulation of technology and growth‐friendly institutions. We demonstrate the importance of broader measures of capital, including measures of technological progress, and its role in the process of economic development; and the limits of conventional measures of investment to understand why future German consumption did not collapse.     

欧盟关于气候变化政策的新进展

本文分析了欧盟理事会2008年3月批准了欧盟气候与能源的一揽子行动计划的背景,提出：欧盟高度重视气候变化,除了因为气候变化已经日益影响人类的生活外,主要是基于自身能源、经济增长和就业的考虑。分析了欧盟实现减排的方式,更新的排放交易机制将是主要手段,还有发展可再生能源、提高能效、利用清洁发展机制,以及应用碳捕捉与储存技术等,指出：欧盟气候变化关键目标是“两个20％”,即：到2020年,温室气体排放至少减少20％,能源消费中可再生能源的份额占20％。