Barriers to Capital Accumulation and Aggregate Total Factor Productivity*

I develop a growth model where a single good can be produced with a traditional and a modern technology. The traditional technology features low total factor productivity (TFP) and a low share of reproducible capital. In this framework, barriers to capital accumulation affect technology use and therefore aggregate TFP. The theory thus connects recent models of factor accumulation and of TFP. The model is calibrated by interpreting traditional production as agriculture and nonreproducible capital as land. The theory implies that barriers are associated with large agricultural shares, as supported by cross‐country and time‐series evidence. The required TFP differences needed in the model to account for a given income disparity are reduced by 1/2 relative to the standard model that abstracts from technology choice.     

以公平促进我国经济的持续增长

主流经济学家认为,收入的公平分配与经济增长负相关,因为公平会损害效率,并降低资本积累率。但我国收入分配的不公平主要来源于效率以外的因素,诸如政府干预经济引起的垄断、国有资产的流失和不合理的户籍制度等等。消除这些因素,不仅可以增加公平,而且也可以提高经济效率,促进经济增长。因此,在我国,公平与经济增长正相关。为了促进我国经济持续增长,必须增加收入分配的公平程度。     

Effects of the Chinese arable land fallow system and land-use change on agricultural production and on the economy

This study focuses on economic effects of arable land fallow system and land-use change in China using a dynamic single-country, multi-regional computable general equilibrium model. Land supply is adjusted endogenously in our model. Land use in each of 31 provinces is tracked by a land-use change module, which is calibrated with satellite data. Our results reveal that the expansion of real output can be attributed to the increase in capital stock as a result of the growth of investment due to the imposition of the arable land fallow system in China. And the growth of investment is caused by the release of labor from agriculture The reduced supply of arable land in agricultural land contraction regions is partially offset by the increasing arable land in agricultural land expansion regions. Rural households benefit more than urban households from the arable land fallow policy due to relatively higher income and lower rural CPI.     

西南地区农村投资水平和农地利用效率对农民农业收入影响分析——以重庆市为例

农民农业增收是一项系统工程,运用多种计量经济分析模型,探讨农村投资水平、农地利用效率对农民农业收入的影响。结果表明:长期来看,农村投资水平、农地综合效率、农地纯技术效率、农地规模效率与农民农业收入存在稳定的正向均衡关系,其中,农地综合效率的贡献度远高于农村投资水平,农地规模效率的贡献度高于农地纯技术效率;短期内,农村投资水平对收入的调整为正向,农地纯技术效率对收入的调整先负后正,农地规模效率对收入的调整先正后负。长期来看,加大农村投资力度,提高农地综合效率、技术效率及规模效率均有利于促进农业收入增长,但关键是要提高农地规模效率。短期内,加大农村投资力度同样有利于农业收入增长,而提高农地纯技术效率则使农业收入增长先降后升,在规模报酬递减范围内的农地规模效率的提高,也有利于农民农业收入增长。     

农业地租的动态非均衡分析

资本有机构成和地权流转等因素一旦发生变化,马克思农业地租模型的结论就需要重新审视.在坚持劳动价值论和生产价格理论的基础上,运用动态非均衡分析工具,把剩余价值、资本有机构成、地权流转等变量内生化,试图建立起农业绝对地租与级差地租的动态非均衡一般分析框架.     

Factors affecting agricultural land transfer-in in China: a semiparametric analysis

We use interview survey data collected randomly from 2677 farm households in nine provinces of China to understand the role of demographic, economic, land, and village characteristics on agricultural land transfer-in by farmers. Results show that variables such as borrowing from informal sources, household labour availability, percentage of total income from agricultural sources, and the household with village cadre have significant positive effects on land transfer-in. Low economic development and low transportation network availability in a county reduces land transfer-in. We also find that two variables (land holding and land idling) should be entered into the model nonparametrically. Land holding and land idling have U- and L-shaped impacts on land transfer-in, respectively. Land transfer-in has endowment equilibrium and provides Chinese households more opportunities to earn agricultural income, thereby reducing rural poverty.     

农村居民点整治区农户农地利用收入影响机制研究——基于江苏省沭阳县、靖江市两地的调查

研究农村居民点整治区农户农地利用收入影响机制,为提高农村居民点整治区的农地利用效率、增加农民收入的目标制定相关政策提供参考。通过实证分析法和计量模型法进行研究,结果表明农村居民点整治区农户农地利用收入受到农户上年家庭总收入、农地经营规模、非农就业比例和家庭消费支出等因素影响,同时也具有一定的区域差异性。因此,促进农地流转、改善农民就业结构和提高农户农业投入能力是增加农村居民点整治区农户农地利用收入的重要途径。     

Agriculture production versus biodiversity protection: The impact of North-South unconditional transfers

The purpose of this paper is to explore whether international income transfers can improve or worsen the global level of biodiversity and global social welfare by changing the relative contributions to biodiversity protection and to agricultural production. Because of the public good nature of biodiversity, Warr's neutrality theorem suggests that such transfers may have no effects at all (Warr, 1983). A model is developed, based on the simplifying assumption that northern countries have little biodiversity whereas southern countries are endowed with natural capital in the form of (generally unspoilt) biodiversity-rich land. Southern countries allocate optimally land and capital to two competing productive activities, agriculture and eco-tourism. When transfers are organized from the North to the South, we show that Warr's neutrality theorem collapses. Transfers can either reduce or increase the natural capital in the South, depending on some empirically verifiable hypotheses concerning the characteristics of the eco-tourism and agricultural production functions. In addition, we demonstrate that welfare improvements can be obtained even with reductions in the level of biodiversity.     

要素生产率和要素配置作用下的中国城乡收入差距

根据城乡生产函数差异的特征事实构建了城乡收入差距模型,利用我国各省1997—2009年数据研究城乡劳动力比、固定资产比、人力资本比、农业中间品投入、工业化和第三产业规模对城乡收入差距的影响。结果显示,我国城乡要素生产率与城乡要素配置的差异对城乡收入差距具有决定性作用;城乡劳动力比的增长明显有助于缩小城乡收入差距,而城乡人力资本比、固定资本投入比、农业成本、以及相邻地区间的相关性都导致了城乡收入差距的扩大。缩小城乡差距的重要途径是加快农村劳动力的城市化、增加农村教育投入、提高农业生产率、增加农村的物质资本投入,各省缩小城乡收入差距的努力对邻近省份也会产生积极影响。     

扩大中国农业保险有效需求的对策研究

农业保险是农民转移农业风险的重要手段。农民人均收入过低、农业土地分散经营、保险费率过高、农业风险管理手段多样化和农民保险意识淡薄等是影响农业保险有效需求的重要因素,为此应采取提高中国农业用地集中程度、切实提高农民收入水平、开发农业保险新险种、提高对农业保险的宣传力度以及政府加大对农业保险支持力度等相应对策。     

Imported technologies,urban unemployment and the North-South dialogue

This paper extends the Harris-Todaro model with intersectoral capital mobility to include sector specific imported technologies. Technologies are assumed to be embodied in imported capital goods. The small economy in the South, for which the model is defined, can import any amount of these technologies from the North at given royalty rates. We find that if the North agrees to reduce the royalty rate on the industrial technology, both the level and the rate of urban unemployment would rise and the income distribution change against the wage earners, whereas such a reduction for the agricultural technology would have just the opposite effects. A decrease in either royalty rate would increase the national income in the South, although the magnitude of the increase in income would be larger with reduced royalty rate for agricultural rather than industrial technology. The policy implication is that the South should emphasize the import of agricultural technology over the industrial technology.     

农地流转中的非农就业因素分析——基于化州市播扬镇的实证检验

农村劳动力非农就业是农地流转的重要前提。基于广东省茂名市辖县级市化州市播扬镇440户农户的问卷调查数据,运用二元logit模型进行实证检验后发现,家庭中非农就业人数的增加将促进农地流转,非农就业收入增长对农地流转有积极效应,非农就业稳定性程度对农地流转有明显影响,非农就业地点影响农地流转行为决策。研究认为,从促进农地流转的视角,在促进农村劳动力向非农转移就业的同时,还必须提高农村劳动力非农就业的收入水平;在健全社会保障体系背景下,要提升农村劳动力非农就业的稳定性,以激励农地流转行为的发生。     

Growth Effects of Capital Income Taxes: How Much Does Endogenous Innovation Matter?

The paper compares the way economies with exogenous and endogenous innovation respond to capital income taxes. If innovation is exogenous, tax cuts increase saving. If innovation is endogenous, tax cuts increase innovation as well. Faster innovation raises capital productivity and calls forth still more saving. A larger capital stock lowers the discount rate, increases the present value of monopoly profit and calls for faster innovation. How large a difference endogenous innovation might make is an open question. We calculate numerical solutions of a model including features of the U.S. tax code that affect incentives to innovate. The results suggest that models with exogenous innovation substantially underestimate long–run effects of capital income taxes.     

中日土地制度、非农兼业和城乡收入均衡的比较与启示

自耕农所有制是日本农地制度的基础,它所赋予的农民对土地的充分权利调动了他们的积极性,有效地提高了农业生产率,保证了日本粮食和各种农产品的充裕的供给;同时增加了农民的农业收入。日本工业,尤其是农村工业的迅速发展,促进了农民非农兼业收入的较快增长。农业收入和兼业收入的相互补充使日本农家收入在20世纪70年代以后达到或略超过城市家庭,实现了城乡收入均衡。在我国致力于缩小城乡收入差距、建设和谐社会的今天,日本经验值得我们借鉴。     

产业比较效益与景德镇陶瓷特色产业集群

在税率方面,唐宋商业税率速低于农业税率,这种情况促进了景德镇陶瓷特色产业集群的萌芽和形成。从收益来看,宋代商业收益很高,清朝商业利润总体上仍然比较高,从而有利于景德镇陶瓷特色产业集群的形成和发展。从行业看,陶瓷产业在唐宋时期既是小农发家致富的重要选择,也是资本增殖比较快的途径。土地一直是明清时期各种资本投资的主要项目,相对于土地利润而言,瓷器手工业生产利润不足以吸引商人大规模投资,由此,商业资本拒绝向工业资本转化,而与农业结合起来了。     

农民权利配置与收入增长关系研究

农民权利配置在促进农民收入增长的同时,也存在着制约农民收入增长的情况。本文力图明晰农民收入增长中权利配置的主要问题及产生原因,找到解决对策。本文首先对农民权利配置与农民收入关系做了理论及描述性分析,进一步实证分析了1994-2011年农民权利配置与农民收入增长的关系。结果表明：长期以来,国家配置为主的配置方式,与国家支农支出、农地流转比例、农用机械总动力有关的权利配置和其对农民收入增长影响系数的匹配不当,收益权配置为主的配置偏好共同导致农民权利配置效率偏低,影响到农民收入增速长期低于GDP增速。本文建议控制直接补贴规模,加大农业科技投入,适度控制农地流转的比例及速度,引导农民开设家庭农场,扶持专业化农业生产,从而提高农民权利配置效率,有效促进农民收入增长。     

生态脆弱地区农户耕地利用结构及投入要素配置优化——基于塔吉特-总绝对方差最小模型的大别山区农户实证

以大别山区为研究区域,采用塔吉特-总绝对方差最小模型(Target-MOTAD)分析了生态脆弱地区农户风险状态下耕地投入要素配置的优化途径.研究表明:调查区域农户耕地投入要素结构和耕地利用结构有优化空间,典型农户在现有耕地资源条件下可以通过耕地投入要素配置及耕地利用结构的优化来增加其农业收入,而不需要通过扩大垦殖规模来实现农业收入增长目标.因此生态脆弱地区农户在耕地利用过程中应提高耕地利用程度,优化投入要素的配置结构,避免由于扩大垦殖规模而造成的生态环境的进一步破坏.     

农业标准化生产经营微观决策分析

基于农业标准化生产经营的特点,构建了农业标准化生产经营微观决策模型。在农业标准化生产经营决策过程中,影响决策的主要因素有物质资本、人力资本、土地规模、标准化农产品的价格和公共支持。因此,促进农业标准化生产经营必须扩大规模,加大扶持力度,降低成本,提高预期收益。     

河北省行业收入差距成因及对策研究

河北省行业职工收入低、行业间收入差距大。从初次分配比例、行业对国家的贡献、行业对经济发展的贡献、行业劳动生产率四个方面对行业收入进行分析可以看出,行业垄断和劳动生产率是影响行业收入的主要原因。因此,我们应转变观念,正确认识增加居民收入对经济增长的促进作用,加大消费带动行业发展;建立稳定的工资调整机制,使居民收入的增长和经济增长相协调;建立完善的收入分配调节机制,强化政府的分配调节职能;构建适应社会主义市场经济要求的人力资本定价机制,打造初次分配的公平基础。     

THE MEASUREMENT OF REAL INCOME

This paper is about the theory of the measurement of real income. By "theory of measurement" I mean the characterization of statistical terms as variables in a model, just as real consumption is characterized as an indicator of utility and the consumer price index is characterized as the cost of attaining a given level of utility in the economic theory of index numbers developed by Konus, Frisch and others half a century ago. I identify five logically distinct and internally-consistent concepts of real income: maximum sustainable consumption, consumption plus the output of new capital goods, consumption plus the increase in the capital stock where capital can be measured in two quite separate ways, and the sum of actual consumption and consumption forgone in the investment process. The last of these concepts is the most appropriate as a guide to producing long time series of real income for measuring a country's rate of economic growth.