金融创新与货币政策有效性研究

本文从金融创新的角度研究货币政策的有效性。从西方发达国家和我国1998年以前的货币政策的实践来看，金融创新对各国中央银行实施的货币政策产生强烈的冲击，货币政策的有效性日趋弱化，同时，本文实证研究表明金融创新对我国1998年以来货币政策的效果的冲击是稀薄的，货币供应量与产出之间仍具有稳定的相关关系。总之，金融创新使货币政策的有效性逐渐趋于下降，如何削弱金融创新对货币政策有效性的冲击成为各国中央银行面临的新的挑战。     

金融创新与货币政策

金融创新实质是金融领域内部通过各种要素的重新组合和创造性变革过程以及所引进的新事物。本文通过分析金融创新对货币供求和货币需求的影响,金融创新对货币政策工具、货币政策中介目标、货币政策传导机制、货币政策效果的影响,提出了中央银行在选择货币政策时应适应金融创新所做的调整。     

基层货币政策传导应处理好三个关系

人民银行分支行在传导实施货币政策中不仅要强化对宏观经济运行规律的认识和把握，还要善于处理各种关系，创新货币政策传导方式，促进货币政策与辖区经济运行环境有机结合，实现货币政策的最佳效果。     

通货膨胀目标制的特点及借鉴意义

金融创新和金融全球化，对传统的货币政策中介变量提出了挑战。为提高货币政策的有效性，20世纪90年代以来，许多国家对货币政策框架进行了调整，放弃中介目标，直接钉住通货膨胀目标，由此产生了通货膨胀目标制我国货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标目前尚具合理性，但应借鉴通货膨胀目标制的有关做法，对现行的货币政策操作加以完善。     

我国最优货币政策中介目标的选择

货币政策中介目标是货币政策的主要组成部分。但是，商业银行“惜贷”行为和企业贷款行为中的“道德风险”，使得货币政策中介目标面临困境，影响了近几年货币政策实施的效果。加入WTO后，外资金融机构的涌入将使我国直接面对大规模金融创新，这会使传统的货币供应量指标不能准确衡量经济运行状况的问题更加严重。因此，我们必须对货币供应量担当货币政策中介目标的有效性问题进行思考和研究，推动利率市场化进程，货币政策中介目标在国家货币政策中将日益发挥重要作用。     

金融创新对贷币供求的影响分析

上世纪70年代开始的金融创新对金融和经济产生了深刻的影响,尤其是新的金融工具的出现,对货币供给和需求产生了很大的影响,从而影响了央行的货币政策制定和实施效果。本文分析了金融创新对货币供给和需求可能产生的影响,对金融创新在我国开展后的货币政策制定具有借鉴意义。     

论金融创新对货币需求的影响

自20世纪70年代形成高潮至今仍快速发展的全球范围内的金融创新，对货币的需求产生了较大的影响，金融创新对货币需求的影响表现为：减弱了对货币的需求并使货币结构发生变化，降低了货币需求的稳定性，使货币需求的利率弹性下降，加快了货币流通速度；金融创新还通过资产价格影响货币需求。金融创新通过对货币需求的广泛影响，进而对传统的货币政策传导机制也会产生较大冲击。使其功能减弱或失灵。这一切都对货币政策的制定形成了新的挑战。     

2006年上半年金融市场分析

该文选自中国人民银行货币政策分析小组2006年8月9日发表的《二00六年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》。2006年上半年，金融市场总体运行平稳。货币市场流动性充足，债券发行情况良好，市场交易活跃。金融市场产品创新不断推出，市场制度性建设获得较大进展，运行机制进一步完善。     

金融创新对传统货币政策的冲击及启示

金融创新可分为宏观和微观两个部分.微观的金融创新可视为对不同特性加以解捆和重新组合起来创造的新金融工具;宏观金融创新又可分为市场创新和制度创新.金融创新对货币供求的影响有:狭义货币需求减弱和货币需求函数稳定性降低;货币供给主体扩展与货币乘数放大.金融创新对传统货币的冲击是:一是从政策工具、中介目标、传导机制方面对凯恩斯相机抉择的货币政策的冲击;二是对弗里德曼的单一规则的货币政策的冲击.金融创新对我国货币政策创新的启示是:实行规则性和相机抉择相结合的混合政策操作;扩展中央银行的调控范围;灵活调整货币的中介目标;调整货币政策工具的选择.     

影响我国货币政策传导的因素分析

近年来中央银行货币政策效果不十分明显的原因，在于货币政策传导在中央银行、商业银行、微观经济主体等方面存在着传导障碍，使货币政策信号的传导随着传导路径的加长而层层衰减或失真，只有不断改善货币政策传导机制，才能进一步提高货币政策的效果。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.