Time preference and international trade

We first consider a closed model, where households' time discount depends on externality in consumption. We can prove that there is a unique steady state, which is a saddle point. Then we extend the model to a two‐country world, and derive the condition on the effects of consumption externality under which there is a unique free trade steady state with saddle‐point stability.     

Expectation-driven fluctuations and welfare loss under free trade in two-country models

This paper investigates the interlinkage in the business cycles based on expectation-driven fluctuations of large-country economies in a free-trade equilibrium. We consider a two-country, two-good, two-factor general equilibrium model with sector-specific externalities. We show that some country's expectation-driven fluctuations can spread throughout the world once trade opens even if the other country has determinacy under autarky. We thus prove that under free trade, globalization and market integration can have destabilizing effects on a country's competitive equilibrium. Finally, we characterize a configuration in which opening to international trade improves the stationary welfare at the world level but deteriorates the stationary welfare of the country that imports investment goods and exports consumption goods. We conclude that in opposition to the standard belief, international trade might not be beneficial to all trading partners in the long run.     

Autarkic indeterminacy and trade determinacy

We extend the model of Nishimura and Shimomura (2002) to consider a two-country framework where under autarky indeterminacy arises in one country but determinacy in the other, and show that indeterminacy could be eliminated when trade takes place between the two.     

Technology advantage,terms of trade,and pattern of trade

We develop a two-country, two-sector model of trade, and assume that the differences between two countries are not only the diversities of human capital distributions but also relative production technologies. We find that, in addition to the diversity effect, both the terms of trade effect and the relative technology effect can also matter for the pattern of trade. We prove that, unlike previous results, if combination of the terms of trade effect and the relative technology effect dominates the diversity effect, then a country with more diverse human capital will export goods produced by supermodular technology.     

Returns to scale,imperfect competition and aggregate demand and trade policy effects in a two-country model

This paper constructs a simple general equilibrium two-country model with flexible exchange rates, specialization in production, and oligopolistic firms. The model is simulated in order to investigate how returns to scale and imperfect competition influence the process through which the aggregate demand and trade policy effects are transmitted internationally. The possibility that aggregate demand and trade policies enacted by one country can have beggar my neighbor effects on the other country cannot be excluded.     

Relative deprivation,time preference,and economic growth

We study the growth process among a large group of economies where consumption relative to a reference group determines the discount factor of the household agents. We characterize all possible balanced growth paths and their stability properties. The model can explain why two economies having similar production technologies, preferences, and total factor productivity growth rates can differ in labor supply behavior and have diverging growth paths depending on their initial conditions. Numerical analysis of the model suggests that growth path divergence is plausible based on cross-country differences in savings rates. History dependence on time preference also generates realistic transitional dynamics.     

Vertical trade and free trade agreements

We investigate the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on tariffs and welfare in vertical trade. We consider a three-country model, where an FTA is formed between a country exporting a final good and a country exporting an intermediate good. The FTA unambiguously leads to a reduction in the member country’s tariff, but may cause the non-member country’s tariff level to increase. In the case, where FTA raises the non-member country’s tariff level, the FTA increases that country’s welfare. In contrast, the FTA may render its member countries better off. This result implies that the formation of an FTA may not always be Pareto-improving.     

Explaining liberalization commitments in financial services trade

The paper examines the determinants of market access commitments in international financial services trade in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Based on a theoretical model, it empirically investigates the role of domestic political economy forces, international bargaining considerations, and the state of complementary policy. The empirical results confirm the relevance of the model in explaining banking and (to a somewhat lesser degree) securities services liberalization commitments. The findings imply that those who seek greater access to developing country markets for financial services must do more to counter protectionism at home in areas of export interest for developing countries. JEL no. D78, F13, G20     

新贸易壁垒对我国外贸的影响及对策

在传统贸易壁垒作用日益减弱的今天,技术壁垒、绿色壁垒、社会壁垒等新型的非关税壁垒已成为我国外贸发展的主要障碍。新贸易壁垒有具体成因,并已对我国的外贸产生了许多影响,要突破新贸易壁垒必须在积极推广使用国际标准等方面采取相应的对策。     

A note on the time inconsistency of strategic trade policy

In a simple three-stage model of an international Cournot duopoly, optimal strategic trade policy is shown to be time inconsistent. If the domestic government first announces a production subsidy, firms then irrevocably commit resources to R&D, and finally play their output game, there is an incentive for the government to revise its ex ante optimal policy once R&D decisions have been made. If private agents anticipate this revision and if the government does not have the power to commit itself to the ex ante optimal policy, a credibility constraint has to be imposed.     

Aid and trade

This paper surveys the recent theoretical and empirical literaturethat explores the relations between aid and trade and asks aboutthe complementarity or substitution effects at work. We distinguishbetween the effects of aid on trade flows and on trade policies,of the donor as well as the recipient countries. Special focusis given on trade facilitation, or ‘aid for trade’.     

The theory of optimum currency areas,trade adjustment,and trade

This article seeks to provide a closer integration of the theory of optimum currency areas with the theory of international trade. A currency area is treated as a continuous variable ranging from zero to one: zero if there is no enlargement, and some positive value otherwise, corresponding exactly to the percentge of trade in the enlarged area. The benefits of widening a currency area are then regarded, in terms of conventional trade theory, as equivalent to a reduction in transportation cost. The costs of widening a currency area are seen, instead, with reference to open economy macroeconomics, as a drop in the speed of adjustment of the terms of trade to their long-run equilibrium level. On this basis, it is shown that the marginal benefits of enlarging a currency area fall, the marginal costs rise, and an optimum size arises. But this size depends heavily on the optimal composition of the members.CEPR     

中、美贸易摩擦分析和对策研究

近年来中美贸易迅速增长,中美之间的摩擦也不断加剧,本文介绍了中美贸易摩擦的现状,分析了中美贸易摩擦的原因,并提出了减少中美贸易摩擦相应的对策。     

绿色贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响与对策

绿色贸易壁垒是通过环境标准和法规等对自由贸易形成障碍的一种非关税措施。近年来,绿色贸易壁垒已经成为国际贸易领域中对自由贸易妨碍程度最深的一种贸易壁垒,它已经对中国产品出口造成了极为不利的影响。本文旨在研究我国产品出口屡遭发达国家绿色贸易壁垒阻碍的原因以及在WTO框架下我国应该采取什么措施来规避绿色贸易壁垒,解决因此而引发的贸易争端,进而合理地利用绿色贸易壁垒来保护环境和人类与动植物的健康,并促进我国出口贸易的发展。     

中俄经贸合作及俄罗斯对外经贸合作的环境分析

纵观中俄贸易发展历程,无论是高峰与低谷,自然受其当时双方贸易环境的制约.目前,中俄经贸合作已呈现出快速发展趋势,说明中俄经贸合作环境有所改善,特别是俄罗斯的对外经贸政策、税收、投资、法律、市场等环境已发生一些积极的变化.为此,我们要及时调整对俄经贸战略,进一步推进对俄经贸合作.     

浅析环境贸易壁垒对我国外贸的影响及对策

环境贸易堡垒作为贸易保护主义的一种新形式应运而生,而且有愈演愈烈之势,它几乎波及到我国对外贸易的各个领域,影响了我国外贸的增长。本文首先阐述了环境贸易壁垒的涵义,其次分析了环境贸易壁垒对我国外贸的影响,最后提出了相应的解决对策。     

中、澳经贸:自由贸易协定的机遇和挑战

中、澳自由贸易协定谈判从2005年10月开始,迄今已经进行了9个回合。本文分析了中、澳双边经贸关系的现状,并探讨了自由贸易协定给中、澳经贸可能带来的机遇和挑战,并提出推动中、澳经贸关系、加速中、澳自由贸易区建设的一些建议。     

R&D,trade in intermediate inputs,and the comparative advantage of advanced countries

This paper examines the accumulation of physical capital versus knowledge (R&D) capital as a determinant of advanced countries’ comparative advantage. I show that advanced countries are abundant in R&D resources, specialize in knowledge-intensive stages of high-technology industries, and outsource labor-intensive stages of the industries to labor-abundant countries. In contrast, global data on production and trade cannot support the conventional view that advanced countries specialize in and export capital-intensive goods. My results indicate that the accumulation of knowledge capital plays a vital role in explaining advanced countries’ comparative advantage.