What do accruals tell us about future cash flows?

Our model, which is adapted from Feltham and Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:689–731, 1995) and Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:661–687, 1995) and extends Dechow and Dichev (Account Rev 77:35–59, 2002), characterizes the information about future cash flows reflected in accruals. It reveals investors can extract from accruals information about next period’s economic factor and the transitory part of one component of next period’s cash flow. The extent to which each accrual provides this information depends on whether the accrual aligns future or past cash flows and current period economics and whether it relates to the current or prior period. Thus each type of accrual has a different coefficient in valuation and forecasting cash flows or earnings. Each coefficient combines an information weight reflecting the information that accrual type provides and a multiple reflecting how that information is used in valuation and cash flow and earnings forecasting. The empirical evidence supports our main insight, namely that partitioning accruals based on their role in cash-flow alignment increases their ability to forecast future cash flows and earnings and explain firm value.     

The mixed attribute model in SFAS 133 cash flow hedge accounting: implications for market pricing

In this study, we examine the pricing of cash flow hedge adjustments reported in other comprehensive income (OCICF), under the mixed attribute model in SFAS 133 Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities. Our OCICF pricing investigation integrates empirical research on the derivatives use that gives rise to such mark-to-market adjustments with the accounting information pricing literature. Based on this integration, we generalize mispricing theory for the SFAS 133 mixed attribute model and predict both the direction and magnitude of OCICF pricing. Screening on U.S. multinationals with ex ante exposure to currency risk, we provide evidence of OCICF mispricing in the expected direction, consistent with the notion that SFAS 133 cash flow hedge accounting results in a mixed attribute problem (Gigler et al. in J Account Res 45:257–287, 2007). Moreover, we find that both OCICF gains and losses are inversely related to future cash flows and of the expected magnitude, consistent with our predictions based on valuation theory (for example, Ohlson in Rev Account Stud 4:145–162, 1999). Our results support the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s concern that the SFAS 133 mixed attribute model does not provide the information necessary for investors to understand the net economic effects of derivatives use (FASB in Accounting for financial instruments and revisions to the accounting for derivative instruments and hedging activities. FASB, Norwalk, 2010).     

On the Price of Risk Under a Regime Switching CGMY Process

In this paper, we study option pricing under a regime-switching exponential Lévy model. Assuming that the coefficients are time-dependent and modulated by a finite state Markov chain, we generalise the work in Momeya and Morales (Method Comput Appl Probab, 2014, doi: 10.1007/s11009-014-9399-2), and Siu and Yang (Acta Mathe Appl Sin 2:369–388, 2009), that is, we use a pricing method based on the Esscher transform conditional on the information available on the Markov chain. We also carry out numerical analysis, to show the impact of the risk induced by the underlying Markov chain on the price of the option.     

Do core and non-core cash flows from operations persist differentially in predicting future cash flows?

This study investigates the persistence of cash flow components (core and non-core cash flows) using a cash flow prediction model. By extending the Barth, Cram, and Nelson (Account Rev 76(January):27–58, 2001) model, we examine the role of cash flow components in predicting future cash flows beyond that of accrual components. We propose a cash flow prediction model that decomposes cash flows from operations into core and non-core cash flow components that parallel the presentation and format of operating income from the income statement. Consistent with the AICPA and financial analysts’ recommendations, and as predicted, we find that core and non-core cash flows defined in our paper are differentially persistent in predicting future cash flows; and these cash flow components enhance the in-sample predictive ability of cash flow prediction models. We also analyze the association of in-sample prediction errors with earnings, cash flow and accruals variability. We find that disaggregating cash flows improve in-sample prediction, especially for large firms with high cash flows and earnings variability.

Option pricing with Weyl–Titchmarsh theory

In the Black–Merton–Scholes framework, the price of an underlying asset is assumed to follow a pure diffusion process. No-arbitrage theory shows that the price of an option contract written on the asset can be determined by solving a linear diffusion equation with variable coefficients. Applying the separating variable method, the problem of option pricing under state-dependent deterministic volatility can be transformed into a Schrödinger spectral problem, which has been well studied in quantum mechanics. With Weyl–Titchmarsh theory, we are able to determine the boundary condition and the nature of the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions. The solution can be written analytically in a Stieltjes integral. A few case studies demonstrate that a new analytical option pricing formula can be produced with our method.     

Pricing currency options under double exponential jump diffusion in a Markov-modulated HJM economy

Extending the framework of Amin and Jarrow (J Int Money Financ 10:310–329, 1991) and Bo et al. (Insur Math Econ 46:461–469, 2010), this study provides a theoretical exploration of currency options pricing under the presence of interest-rate regime shifts and exchange-rate asymmetric jumps. Evidence of interest-rate regime shifts inferred from UK and US zero coupon bond yields provides support for the regime-switching specifications which we reflect upon the domestic and foreign forward rates. Results of statistical tests conducted on JPY/USD and EUR/USD FX rates provide further support the rationale behind using a double exponential jump diffusion process within a Markov modulated Heath–Jarrow–Morton economy. Our numerical results suggest that, the pricing performance of our model is closely comparable to the Bo-Wang-Yang model for at-the-money options, yet yields improvements in percentage root mean errors for in-the-money options.     

A Direct Test of the Free Cash Flow Hypothesis: Evidence from Real Estate Transactions

This paper tests (Jensen The American Economic Review, 76, 323–329 1986) free cash flow hypothesis using data on real estate transactions. We find that firms with either higher free cash flow or higher cash reserve pay more fore real estate, which is consistent with the free cash flow hypothesis. We also find that the agency costs of free cash flow associated with real estate transactions are more severe when firms have lower Tobin’s Q. Furthermore, we find that among the commonly used corporate governance measures, only equity compensation is effective in mitigating the agency problem of free cash flow.     

Leading indicator variables and managerial incentives in a dynamic agency setting

This paper studies, in a dynamic agency setting, how incentives and contractual efficiency are affected by leading indicators of firms’ future financial performance. In our two-period model, a leading indicator variable provides a noisy forecast of the uncertain return from the manager’s long-term effort, and both contracting parties cannot refrain from renegotiating contract terms based on updated information. We find that the leading indicator can reduce the manager’s long-term effort incentive, as it allows the firm owner to capture more of the resulting return through renegotiated wages (i.e., the manager is held up). By reducing the uncertainty about future aggregate cash flows, the leading indicator also exacerbates the “ratchet” effect and discourages the manager’s short-term effort. In equilibrium, as the leading indicator becomes more accurate in forecasting future cash flows, the first-period contract attaches higher explicit weights to both the forward-looking leading indicator and backward-looking cash flow, and yet the manager may find it optimal to reduce both the short- and long-term efforts. We further show that with a more accurate leading indicator variable, the explicit incentive on the lagging cash flow may increase more than that on the leading indicator, and the equilibrium firm profit may decrease and diverge from the manager’s equilibrium efforts.     

Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles

We study the risk assessment of uncertain cash flows in terms of dynamic convex risk measures for processes as introduced in Cheridito et al. (Electron. J. Probab. 11(3):57–106, 2006). These risk measures take into account not only the amounts but also the timing of a cash flow. We discuss their robust representation in terms of suitably penalised probability measures on the optional σ-field. This yields an explicit analysis both of model and discounting ambiguity. We focus on supermartingale criteria for time consistency. In particular, we show how “bubbles” may appear in the dynamic penalisation, and how they cause a breakdown of asymptotic safety of the risk assessment procedure.     

Implementing Fischer Black's Simple Discounting Rule

Corporate managers typically estimate the value of capital projects by discounting the project's expected future net cash flows at the cost of capital. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is generally used to estimate that cost. But, as anyone who has worked on the finance or business development staff of a public company can attest, there are major challenges in applying the CAPM, including largely unresolved questions about what constitutes the “market portfolio,” how to estimate market risk premiums, and how to estimate the betas of projects. In a short article published in Financial Management in 1988, Fischer Black proposed a valuation “discounting rule” that avoids all these problems—one that involves discounting a relatively certain (as opposed to an expected or average) level of operating cash flows at the risk-free rate. But Black's article does not address the question of how to calculate these “certainty equivalent” or “conditional” cash flows. In this article, the authors propose a way of implementing Black's rule that involves estimating the “conditional” cash flows in a three-step procedure:

• • Find a benchmark security that correlates with the project's cash flows;
• • Estimate the percentiles of the distribution in which the benchmark return equals the risk-free rate over different investment horizons;
• • Use information from corporate managers to assess the cash flows that define the same percentiles in the cash flow distributions.

As the authors point out, the virtue of Black's rule is that it shifts the focus of the analyst away from the assessment of discount factors and puts it squarely on the more challenging, and arguably more relevant, problem of estimating the project's cash flows.     

The price of risk and ambiguity in an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices

We consider a version of the intertemporal general equilibrium model of Cox et?al. (Econometrica 53:363–384, 1985) with a single production process and two correlated state variables. It is assumed that only one of them, Y ₂, has shocks correlated with those of the economy’s output rate and, simultaneously, that the representative agent is ambiguous about its stochastic process. This implies that changes in Y ₂ should be hedged and its uncertainty priced, with this price containing risk and ambiguity components. Ambiguity impacts asset pricing through two channels: the price of uncertainty associated with the ambiguous state variable, Y ₂, and the interest rate. With ambiguity, the equilibrium price of uncertainty associated with Y ₂ and the equilibrium interest rate can increase or decrease, depending on: (i) the correlations between the shocks in Y ₂ and those in the output rate and in the other state variable; (ii) the diffusion functions of the stochastic processes for Y ₂ and for the output rate; and (iii) the gradient of the value function with respect to Y ₂. As applications of our generic setting, we deduct the model of Longstaff and Schwartz (J Financ 47:1259–1282, 1992) for interest-rate-sensitive contingent claim pricing and the variance-risk price specification in the option pricing model of Heston (Rev Financ Stud 6:327–343, 1993). Additionally, it is obtained a variance-uncertainty price specification that can be used to obtain a closed-form solution for option pricing with ambiguity about stochastic variance.     

What is behind the magic of O-Score? An alternative interpretation of Dichev’s (1998) bankruptcy risk anomaly

Using Ohlson’s (J Account Res 18(1):109–131, 1980) measure of bankruptcy risk (O-Score), Dichev (J Fin 53(3):1131–1147, 1998) documents a bankruptcy risk anomaly in which firms with high bankruptcy risk earn lower than average returns. This study first demonstrates that the negative association between bankruptcy risk and returns does not generalize to an alternative measure of bankruptcy risk. Then, by examining the nine individual components of O-Score, I find that funds from operations (FFO) is the only component that is associated with returns. Furthermore, I show that the return-predictive power of FFO is due to cash flows from operations. Taken as a whole, this study provides evidence that Dichev’s bankruptcy risk anomaly is a manifestation of investors’ under (over)-pricing of cash flows (accrual) component of earnings, i.e., the accrual anomaly documented by Sloan (Account Rev 71(3):289–316, 1996).     

On exact pricing of FX options in multivariate time-changed Lévy models

In this paper we discuss foreign-exchange option pricing in conditionally Gaussian models, namely in the variance-gamma and in the normal-inverse Gaussian models. It happens that in the both models closed-form pricing is attainable. The used method developes the one of the work by Madan et al. (Eur Finance Rev 2:79–105, 1998) where the price of the European call is primarily derived. The obtained formulas are based on values of the Gauss and the Appell hypergeometric functions.     

Does free cash flow problem contribute to excess stock return synchronicity?

We investigate whether Jensen’s free cash flow problem contributes to excess stock return synchronicity. We find that low-growth firms with high free cash flow have greater stock return synchronicity. These firms also engage in earnings management to lower their disclosure quality. To the extent that free cash flow for low-growth firms provides corporate insiders an opportunity to extract private control benefit, our findings lend direct and concrete support to Jin and Myers (J Financ Econ, 79:257–292, 2006) prediction that insiders increase opaqueness to capture cash flow beyond the level expected by outsider investors. We identify Jensen’s free cash flow problem as an important driver for stock return synchronicity.     

Analysis of the Nonlinear Option Pricing Model Under Variable Transaction Costs

In this paper we analyze a nonlinear Black–Scholes model for option pricing under variable transaction costs. The diffusion coefficient of the nonlinear parabolic equation for the price V is assumed to be a function of the underlying asset price and the Gamma of the option. We show that the generalizations of the classical Black–Scholes model can be analyzed by means of transformation of the fully nonlinear parabolic equation into a quasilinear parabolic equation for the second derivative of the option price. We show existence of a classical smooth solution and prove useful bounds on the option prices. Furthermore, we construct an effective numerical scheme for approximation of the solution. The solutions are obtained by means of the efficient numerical discretization scheme of the Gamma equation. Several computational examples are presented.     

Oil prices implied volatility or direction: Which matters more to financial markets?

We examine the impact of oil price uncertainty on US stock returns by industry using the US Oil Fund options implied volatility OVX index and a GJR-GARCH model. We test the effect of the implied volatility of oil on a wide array of domestic industries’ returns using daily data from 2007 to 2016, controlling for a variety of variables such as aggregate market returns, market volatility, exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation expectations. Our main finding is that the implied volatility of oil prices has a consistent and statistically significant negative impact on nine out of the ten industries defined in the Fama and French (J Financ Econ 43:153–193, 1997) 10-industry classification. Oil prices, on the other hand, yield mixed results, with only three industries showing a positive and significant effect, and two industries exhibiting a negative and significant effect. These findings are an indication that the volatility of oil has now surpassed oil prices themselves in terms of influence on financial markets. Furthermore, we show that both oil prices and their volatility have a positive and significant effect on corporate bond credit spreads. Overall, our results indicate that oil price uncertainty increases the risk of future cash flows for goods and services, resulting in negative stock market returns and higher corporate bond credit spreads.     

Taste,information, and asset prices: implications for the valuation of CSR

Firms often undertake activities that do not necessarily increase cash flows (e.g., costly investments in corporate social responsibility or CSR), and some investors value these non cash activities (i.e., they have a “taste” for these activities). We develop a model to capture this phenomenon and focus on the asset-pricing implications of differences in investors’ tastes for firms’ activities and outputs. Our model shows that, first, investor taste differences provide a basis for investor clientele effects that are endogenously determined by the shares demanded by different types of investors. Second, because the market must clear at one price, investors’ demands are influenced by all dimensions of firm output even if their preferences are only over some dimensions. Third, information releases cause trading volume, even when all investors have the same information. Fourth, investor taste provides a rationale for corporate spin-offs that help firms better target their shareholder bases. Finally, individual social responsibility can lead to corporate social responsibility when managers care about stock price because price reacts to investments in CSR activities.     

Price reversals versus price continuations: the transitory price effects of futures trading extension on the underlying stock market

This paper examines the transitory price effects of index futures trading extension on the underlying stock market. Based on the model formulation of George and Hwang (1995) and Amihud and Mendelson (1987) and using the Hong Kong data, we find that the extension of futures trading hour helps to reduce the opening pricing errors and change the correlations between daytime and overnight stock returns. Our finding adds to the literature that the trading behavior of derivatives has a significant influence on the transitory price changes of the underlying cash products.

Can Companies Use Hedging Programs to Profit from the Market? Evidence from Gold Producers*

In this article, the authors summarize the findings of their recent study of the hedging activities of 92 North American gold mining companies during the period 1989‐1999. The aim of the study was to answer two questions: (1) Did such hedging activities increase corporate cash flows? (2) And if yes, were such increases the result of management's ability to anticipate price movements when adjusting their hedge ratios? Although the author's answer to the first question is “yes,” their answer to the second is “no.” More specifically, the authors concluded that:

• ? During the 1989‐1999 period, the gold derivatives market was characterized by a persistent positive risk premium— that is, a positive spread between the forward price and the realized future spot price—that caused short forward positions to generate positive cash flows. The gold mining companies that hedged their future gold production realized an average total cash flow gain of $11 million, or $24 per ounce of gold hedged, per year, as compared to average annual net income of only $3.5 million. Because of the positive risk premium, short derivatives positions did not generate significant losses even during those subperiods of the study when the gold price increased.
• ? There was considerable volatility in corporate hedge ratios during the period of the study, which is consistent with managers incorporating market views into their hedging programs and attempting to time the market by hedging selectively. But after attempting to distinguish between derivatives activities designed to hedge and those designed to profit from a view, the authors conclude that corporate efforts to time the market through selective hedging were largely if not completely futile. In fact, the companies' adjustments of hedge ratios appeared to consistently lag instead of leading the market.