我国自然资源收益分配存在的主要问题探析

本文分析了我国自然资源收益分配中存在的主要问题,包括:自然资源价格过低、自然资源开发的社会成本补偿不足、各权益主体收益分配不公平、政府权益实现方式错位,以及政府内部收益分配不公等。     

Fertility and old-age labor supply in aging China

This paper studies the fertility and old-age labor supply decisions of Chinese households along with the relaxation of fertility control and a rise in life expectancy. We first build an overlapping-generations model, where agents make endogenous fertility and old-age labor supply decisions in the presence of fertility constraint. In our model, children serve as an alternative saving technology since they provide intra-family transfer for their old-age parents. Our analytical results suggest that the impact of rising life expectancy on fertility depends on whether children are more like consumption goods or saving vehicles. Relaxing fertility control would induce more leisure in the old age, while a rise in life expectancy would lead to more old-age labor supply. We then calibrate the model to Chinese economy and find that a rise in life expectancy would discourage fertility as intra-family transfer becomes less important. In addition, the implementation of two-children policy rather than full relaxation of fertility control, a rise in child-rearing cost, and an expansion of social security would also reduce fertility, partly offsetting the effects of relaxing one-child policy.     

Does Life Expectancy Affect Private Educational Investment in China？

In this paper, we emphasize the interactive effect between life expectancy and human capital accumulation, and test the positive feedback of longevity to educational investment in China. This is very important for understanding the pressure from the aging population and the increase in private educational investment in China. We first show in an extended human capital investment model that life expectancy growth acts as a driving force for educational investment. We then build a difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences empirical framework and use cross‐province data to examine the effect in China. We use the maternal mortality rate (MMR) to identify the difference in life expectancy between genders, and the illiteracy rate or average years of education by gender for educational investment. The empirical results comply with the theory, in that increases in life expectancy significantly lower illiteracy rates and improve the average schooling years in China. This content of the present paper is closely related to crucial issues like population aging, human capital accumulation and gender discrimination. Policy implications are discussed based on the empirical results.     

Easterlin revisited: Relative income and the baby boom

This paper reexamines the first viable and a still leading explanation for mid-twentieth century baby booms: Richard Easterlin's relative income hypothesis. He suggested that when incomes are higher than material aspirations (formed in childhood), birth rates would rise. This paper uses microeconomic data to formulate a measure of an individual's relative income. The use of microeconomic data allows the researcher to control for both state fixed effects and cohort fixed effects, both have been absent in previous examinations of Easterlin's hypothesis. The results of the empirical analysis are consistent with Easterlin's assertion that relative income influenced fertility decisions, although the effect operates only through childhood income. When the estimated effects are contextualized, they explain 12% of the U.S. baby boom.     

东中西部地区差距的人类发展指数估计

文章在收集整理反映我国东中西部收入、教育和出生时预期寿命差别数据的基础上,利用UNDP的人类发展指数法计算了按东中西部划分的收入指数、教育指数和预期寿命指数,并进一步得出按东中西部划分的人类发展指数。通过对各项指数的分析,得出的主要结论是:自20世纪90年代以来,东     

Demographic change in the former Soviet Union during the transition period

This paper examines patterns of mortality and other demographic changes across the former Soviet Union. Using regional data from the early 1990s, a simultaneous equations model of fertility, marriage, divorce, infant mortality and abortion is estimated as a function of economic and social variables. The paper then looks at determinants of life expectancy and specific causes of death. Demographic scenarios are then forecast on the basis of specific economic environments; these forecasts in turn are used to forecast life expectancies in the coming decades. In plausible environments, there is little reason to anticipate a rapid recovery in male or female life expectancies, while further declines in fertility appear imminent.     

Longevity,Fertility, and the Real Exchange Rate

We build a simple overlapping generation model to investigate the effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate where fertility is chosen endogenously. The model reveals that, although the overall effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate is not certain, longer life expectancy tends to cause the real exchange rate to depreciate by reducing fertility. Fertility thus serves as a mediator in the effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate. Evidence from 148 economies (1980–2018) shows a statistically significant and robust negative relationship between life expectancy and the real exchange rate. It is estimated that a 1 year increase in life expectancy is associated with a 1.5 percent depreciation in the real exchange rate. The evidence also confirms the mediated effect of fertility. The mediated effect that fertility exerts accounts for 30 percent to 50 percent of the total effect, depending on the real exchange rate index used.     

强化政府收入分配职能的必要性及对策思路

收入分配是经济社会生活的重要方面,而收入分配政策是关系收入分配公平与否最直接、最核心的要素。因此,政府作为资源配置的重要主体之一、作为政策的直接制定者势必应该强化其收入分配职能,进而逐步缩小收入分配差距和贫富差距,实现社会公平与社会正义。     

Women's education and fertility in China

Using data from the China Family Panel Studies, this paper exploits the Compulsory Education Law of China implemented in the 1980s to empirically examine the causal impact of women's education on fertility in rural China by difference-in-differences methods. The results show that an additional year of schooling lowered the number of children a woman would have by approximately 0.09 children, postponed the age of first childbirth by 0.7 years, and reduced the probability of having a second child or more children by 0.18 among those mothers whose first child was a girl. In addition to the income effect, these results are also partly explained by more educated women preferring quality to quantity of children, placing a greater value on leisure and no longer perceiving children as the sole focus in their lives.     

Income Inequality and Health: Do the Equivalence Scales Matter?

The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship between income inequality and health in the European Union countries using new data from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP). The heterogeneity of the households has been approached using different equivalence scales. A variety of different model specifications were tried using different dependent variables such as life expectancy at birth and child mortality. The results give support to the influence of income inequality on health indicators using aggregate data and panel techniques, and show the sensitivity of the Gini index to the equivalence scale considered.     

人口老龄化的长期经济影响：上海的挑战与对策

在全球人口老龄化趋势日益显著的背景下,生育率的迅速下降和预期寿命的延长使得上海人口正在经历快速的老龄化,这一人口年龄结构的转变也对上海经济发展产生着长期的影响。作为目前我国老龄化程度最高的城市,如何在经济迅速发展的同时迎接和应对老龄化挑战,这是上海当前需要高度重视的问题,关系到社会和谐稳定与经济可持续发展。本文将从上海...     

A mixed blessing of lifespan heterogeneity

Human mortality data reveal that life expectancy in industrialized countries has been converging to a common value. Yet, significant variations in the distributions of adult life-table ages at death among some developed countries have also been observed. This paper, largely motivated by Japan’s mortality data, presents a general equilibrium, overlapping-generations model that assesses the welfare effects of the mean-preserving declines in the variance of the distribution of adult ages at death. Our quantitative exercise reveals that for a given value of the economy-wide life expectancy, the individual welfare effects due to switching from high to low-variance steady states are length of life-dependent, quite sensitive to the average economy-wide retirement age, and strongly influenced by associated changes in the labor supply, factor prices, and lifetime earnings.     

Getting ahead or falling behind: Findings from the second wave of the National Income Dynamics Study

The National Income Dynamics Study is the first national panel study of South African individuals. Its objective is to track these individuals over time to study social mobility. This paper documents the survey design and a successful recontact record in Wave 2 before providing an overview of the key findings from the other papers in this issue of the journal. Those from the top of the income distribution were hardest to recontact. The papers show that average real incomes grew slightly between 2008 and 2010. However, life satisfaction and expectations of future upward mobility declined. Being unemployed and moving into unemployment is associated with the lowest level of life satisfaction. Aggregate employment did not decline much but there was significant labour-market churn. The National Income Dynamics Study data reveal high levels of grade repetition and a slow transition from school to work. Relocating is shown to be an important part of schooling and employment decisions.     

预期寿命、生育率变动与基本养老保险统筹账户调整

在构建三期世代交叠模型的基础上,通过选取相关制度指标来模拟分析在未来预期寿命和生育率变动下,基本养老保险统筹账户如何基于参数调整来维持收支平衡。研究结果表明：（1）我国居民预期寿命增长过快,统筹账户收支平衡受预期寿命变化影响较大;（2）在现阶段的预期寿命和生育率条件下,统筹账户能实现自身收支平衡,而且可在短期内通过阶段性降低缴费率来促进制度长远发展;（3）在长期内需通过提高缴费率或降低养老金替代率来保证统筹账户收支平衡,预期寿命为87.828岁且总和生育率为1.79作为参数调整临界点;（4）以现有制度设计为基准,参数调整临界点之前保证35%的基础养老金平均替代率不降,临界点之后保证20%的缴费率不升可以最大程度促进经济和社会发展。     

Does inequality in health impede economic growth?

This paper investigates the effects of inequality in health on economic growth in low and middle income countries. The empirical part of the paper uses an original cross-national panel data set covering 62 low and middle income countries over the period 1985 to 2007. I find a substantial and relatively robust negative effect of health inequality on income levels and income growth controlling for life expectancy, country and time fixed-effects and a large number of other effects that have been shown to matter for growth. The effect also holds if health inequality is instrumented to circumvent a potential problem of reverse causality. Hence, reducing inequality in the access to health care and to health-related information can make a substantial contribution to economic growth.     

Does Schooling Promote Economic Growth?

Abstract: This paper revisits the debate on schooling and economic growth with particular reference to the case of sub‐Saharan Africa. Following the endogenous growth model developed by Lucas (1988) that considers human capital as one factor of production and schooling as a means of human capital accumulation, two results of schooling are explicitly stated: accumulation of privately owned and publicly owned human capital. By developing a growth estimating equation containing these two types of schooling results from the model and confronting it with empirical data, the hypothesis that schooling has got growth effect is tested. The analytic result suggests that in the indicated economies, for the period covered by the study (1966–2000), schooling that leads to accumulation of publicly owned human capital is associated with per capita income growth. Likewise, the analysis provides supporting evidence for the argument that primary schooling level is more associated with growth than other levels of schooling.     

The Determinants of Life Expectancy: An Analysis of the OECD Health Data

This study considers an aggregate life expectancy production function for a sample of developed countries. We find that pharmaceutical consumption has a positive effect on life expectancy at middle and advanced ages but is sensitive to the age distribution of a given country. Thus, ignoring age distribution in a regression of life expectancy on pharmaceutical consumption creates an omitted-variable bias in the pharmaceutical coefficient. We find that doubling annual pharmaceutical expenditures adds about one year of life expectancy for males at age 40 and slightly less than a year of life expectancy for females at age 65. We also present results for lifestyle inputs into the production of life expectancy. For example, decreasing tobacco consumption by about two cigarettes per day or increasing fruit and vegetable consumption by 30% (one-third pound per day) increases life expectancy approximately one year for 40-year-old females.     

健康、教育和经济增长:理论及跨国证据

本文基于Soares(2005)的模型,导出婴儿死亡率和成年人预期寿命对人力资本积累以及最后对经济增长的影响效果,然后用跨国数据对模型的预测进行验证。本文模型的独特之处在于区分了成年人对小孩和对成年人自己的人力资本投资,揭示了成年人寿命增加对经济行为的影响的作用机制。在实证检验中,本文除了采用地理、气候等指标作为工具变量外,还独创性的利用因为实施大范围免疫计划的时间不同而产生的外生的免疫率的国别差异来解决健康的内生性问题。本文的结论对中国和发展中国家经济增长中健康的重要作用具有启发意义。     

Generational Impacts of Demographic Changes in Pay-as-you-go Pension Schemes: Measurement and Application to the Netherlands

Rising longevity and falling fertility threaten the sustainability of pay-as-you-go pension schemes and have major implications for the distribution across generations. This paper shows that keeping generational accounts of the Dutch pay-as-you-go pension scheme constant since the introduction of this scheme in 1957 in the face of subsequent demographic changes would have required a gradual increase of the entitlement age. For the baby boom generations born between 1945 and 1960, we calculate a required increase in the entitlement age of between four and seven years to offset the generational impact of longer life expectancy and lower fertility.     

Equal opportunity and the quantity and quality of Japanese children

"This paper constructs and estimates a simple model of Japanese completed fertility. The analytical model shows that as a woman's lifetime wage rises, there is a decline in average 'quality' per child, but the effect on the quantity of children is ambiguous. Estimation of the model with rare household level data shows that increases in the husband's permanent income raises completed fertility for high income couples, but lowers fertility for the low income. If the wife's education is an appropriate instrument for her lifetime wage, then a rise in the wife's lifetime wage appears to lower her demand for children."