tay's as good as cay: Reply

In a recent comment on our published work [Lettau, M., Ludvigson, S., 2001. Consumption, aggregate wealth, and expected stock returns. Journal of Finance 56, 815–850], Michael Brennan and Yihong Xia [2005. tay's as good as cay. Finance Research Letters 2, 1–14] advance the following argument: A “mechanistic” variable tay, where t is a linear time trend, forecasts stock returns. Since “t has no foresight,” the argument goes, the predictive power of this variable must be attributable to what they call “look-ahead bias.” The authors assert that cay is subject to the same look-ahead bias (generated because we use the full sample to estimate the cointegrating parameters in cay), implying that its forecasting power must be spurious. In this response, we explain why this critique is misplaced.     

Multinationals do it better: Evidence on the efficiency of corporations' capital budgeting

With U.S. multinational enterprises playing increasingly important roles in the global economy, it is important to understand the efficiency of their capital budgeting decisions. We examine an unbalanced panel of 332 U.S. firms from 1992–2000. Using the deviation of a firm's estimated marginal Tobin's q from a benchmark as an indicator of effective resource allocation, we find that widespread multinationals make more efficient capital budgeting decisions. We also test whether this reflects the MNEs' investment locations, but do not obtain support for the hypotheses that they might be monitored by more agents or more successfully resist pressures from interest groups and governments.     

Fund Manager Use of Public Information: New Evidence on Managerial Skills

We show theoretically that the responsiveness of a fund manager's portfolio allocations to changes in public information decreases in the manager's skill. We go on to estimate this sensitivity (RPI) as the R² of the regression of changes in a manager's portfolio holdings on changes in public information using a panel of U.S. equity funds. Consistent with RPI containing information related to managerial skills, we find a strong inverse relationship between RPI and various existing measures of performance, and between RPI and fund flows. We also document that both fund‐ and manager‐specific attributes affect RPI.     

The monetary model in the presence of I(2) components: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and forecasting of the Greek drachma

This paper re-examines the long-run properties of the monetary exchange rate model using data for the drachma–dollar and drachma–mark exchange rates under the hypothesis that the system contains variables that are I(2). Using the recent I(2) test by Paruolo (On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems. J. Economet. 72 (1996) 313–356) to examine the presence of I(2) and I(1) components in a multivariate context we find that the system contains two I(2) variables in both cases and this finding is reconfirmed by the estimated roots of the companion matrix (Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long-run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model. Juselius, J. Economet. 69 (1995) 211–240). The I(2) component led to the transformation of the estimated model by imposing long-run but not short-run proportionality between domestic and foreign money. Two statistically significant cointegrating vectors were found and, by imposing linear restrictions on each vector as suggested by Johansen and Juselius (Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure: an applicaion to the ISLM model. J. Economet. 63 (1994) 7–36) and Johansen (Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration. J. Economet. 69 (1995b) 111–132), the order and rank conditions for identification are satisfied, but the test for overidentifying restrictions was not significant only for the case of the drachma/mark rate. The main findings suggest that we reject the forward-looking version of the monetary model for the drachma/dollar case but not when the drachma/mark rate is used, a result that is attributed to the monetary and exchange rate policy followed by the Greek authorities since Greece's joining of the European Union. Furthermore, we test for parameter stability using the tests developed by Hansen and Johansen (Recursive estimation in cointegrated VAR-models. Working paper (1993) University of Copenhagen) and it is shown that the dimension of the cointegration rank is sample independent while the estimated coefficients do not exhibit instabilities in recursive estimations. Finally, it is shown that the monetary model outperforms the random walk model in an out-of-sample forecasting contest.     

Closed-form valuation of American call options on stocks paying multiple dividends

An American call option on a stock paying a single known dividend can be valued using the Roll–Geske–Whaley formula. This paper extends the Roll–Geske–Whaley model to the n dividends case by using the generalized n-fold compound option model. In this way this paper offers a closed-form solution for American options on stocks paying n known discrete dividends. Moreover, the model also offers the critical values of the early exercise boundaries at each ex-dividend date instant, making it easy to define an early exercise strategy. Numerical examples are included to illustrate this approach.     

Market structure and competitive conditions in the Arab GCC banking system

This paper investigates the market structure of Arab GCC banking industry during the years of 1993–2002 using the most frequently applied measures of concentration k-bank concentration ratio (CRk) and Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and evaluates the monopoly power of banks over the ten years period using the ‘H-statistic’ by Panzar and Rosse. The results show that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and UAE have moderately concentrated markets and are moving to less concentrated positions. The measures of concentration also show that Qatar, Bahrain and Oman are highly concentrated markets. The Panzar–Rosse H-statistics suggest that banks in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE operate under perfect competition; banks in Bahrain and Qatar operate under conditions of monopolistic competition; and we are unable to reject monopolistic competition for the banking market in Oman.     

Tests of technical trading strategies in the emerging equity markets of Latin America and Asia

This study examines the potential profit of ten Variable Length Moving Average (VMA) technical trading rules in ten emerging equity markets in Latin America and Asia from January 1982 through April 1995. The average difference in buy − sell returns after trading costs for each rule and country are compared to a buy and hold strategy. Taiwan, Thailand and Mexico emerge as markets where technical trading strategies may be profitable. We find no strong evidence of profitability for the other markets. However, we find that 82 out of the 100 country–trading rule combinations tested in ten emerging markets, disregarding their statistical significance, correctly predict the direction of changes in the return series. These findings may provide investors with important asset allocation information.     

Is integration I(d) applicable to observed economics and finance time series?

The method of cointegration in regression analysis is based on an assumption of stationary increments. Stationary increments with fixed time lag are called ‘integration I(d)’. A class of regression models where cointegration works was identified by Granger and yields the ergodic behavior required for equilibrium expectations in standard economics. Detrended finance market returns are martingales, and martingales do not satisfy regression equations. We ask if there exist detrended processes beyond standard regression models that satisfy integration I(d). We show that stationary increment martingales are confined to the Wiener process, and observe that martingales describing finance data admit neither the integration I(d) nor the ergodicity required for long time equilibrium relationships. In particular, the martingales derived from finance data do not admit the time (or ‘space’) translational invariance required for increment stationarity. Our analysis explains the lack of equilibrium observed earlier between FX rates and relative price levels.     

Insider ownership and corporate performance: Evidence from the adjustment cost approach

This paper examines the relation between insider ownership and corporate performance in the presence of adjustment costs and investigates how the adjustment costs are determined. In a model specification without adjustment costs, we find that insider ownership is significantly positively associated with corporate performance. But once we allow for adjustment costs, the relationship no longer exists. We find that insider ownership and corporate performance can be explained by their respective lagged values and that many firm characteristics that were previously useful in explaining these two variables turn out to be statistically insignificant. In addition, there is no evidence that insider ownership and corporate performance affect each other. This is consistent with the adjustment cost argument. It is also consistent with the “endogeneity” argument suggested by Demsetz [Demsetz, H. 1983. The structure of ownership and the theory of the firm. Journal of Law and Economics 26, 375–390.], Demsetz and Lehn [Demsetz, H., Lehn, K., 1985. The structure of corporate ownership: causes and consequences. Journal of Political Economy 93, 1155–1177.], and Demsetz and Villalonga [Demsetz, H., Villalonga, B., 2001. The ownership structure and corporate performance. Journal of Corporate Finance 7, 209–233.]. Finally, we document that the speed of adjustment of insider ownership is positively related to insiders' market timing but negatively to the number of insiders and that the speed of adjustment of Tobin's Q is positively associated with financial leverage and stock price volatility.     

The Q Theory and the Swedish Housing Market—An Empirical Test

We argue that major changes in economic policy have resulted in a more market driven demand for housing investment in Sweden, due to policy changes at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s. Tobin’s transparent Q theory is the investment theory used. For the last period of the sample (1993–2003 quarterly data), our results indicate that there exists a high degree of correlation between the Q ratio and the (logarithm of) two different variables for housing investment. An error correction regression model, controlling for structural breaks, also indicates that a stable long-run relationship could be detected for the logarithm of building starts and the Q ratio between 1993–2003, but not between 1981–1992.      

Buy-and-hold mean-variance portfolios with a random exit strategy

We show how buy-and-hold investors can move from horizon uncertainty to profit opportunity. The analysis is conducted under a risk-averse framework rather than the standard Markowitz formulation in the case of i.i.d. asset processes. We make this practical achievement by considering a threshold stopping rule as the strategy to determine when to exit the market. The resulting investment horizon is random and can be correlated with the market. Under this setting, we first provide an analytical approximation to optimal weights, and then identify a class of reference variables associated with the stopping rule that leads to ex-ante improvements in portfolio allocation, vis-a-vis the fixed exit time alternative. The latter conclusion is based on a generalization of the Sharpe ratio, adjusted for horizon uncertainty. The obtained investment suggestion is simple and can be implemented empirically.     

Profit sharing and investment by regulated utilities: A welfare analysis

We analyse the effects of different regulatory schemes (price cap and profit sharing) on the endogenous size of a firm's investment. Using a real option approach in continuous time, we show that profit sharing does not delay a firm's start-up investment compared to a pure price-cap scheme. Profit sharing does not necessarily affect total investment either, if the threshold for profit sharing is high enough. Only a profit sharing intervening for low profit levels could delay further investments. We also evaluate the effects of profit sharing on social welfare, determining profit level that should optimally trigger tighter regulation: profit sharing should be less stringent in sectors where there is more opportunity for larger investment.     

Forecasting asymmetries in aggregate stock market returns: Evidence from conditional skewness

This paper provides a time-series test for the Differences-of-Opinion theory proposed by Hong and Stein (2003) [Hong, H., Stein, J.C., 2003. Differences of opinion, short-sales constraints and market crashes. Review of Financial Studies 16, 487–525.] in the aggregate market, thus extending the cross-sectional test of Chen et al. (2001) [Chen, J., Hong, H., Stein, J.C.. 2001. Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns and conditional skewness in stock prices. Journal of Financial Economics 61, 345–381.] for this theory across individual stocks. An autoregressive conditional density model with a skewed-t distribution is used to estimate the effects of past trading volume on return asymmetry. Using NYSE and AMEX data from 1962 to 2000, we find that the prediction of the Hong–Stein model that negative skewness will be most pronounced under high trading volume conditions is not supported in our time-series analysis with market data.     

A Note on Credit Risk of Vertical <Emphasis Type="Italic">Keiretsu</Emphasis> Firms: Preliminary Evidence from the Japanese Automobile Industry

This paper empirically examines the relationship between the credit risk of Toyota, Nissan and Honda keiretsu-affiliated firms and the credit risk of the respective parent company. As credit spread data for keiretsu-affiliated firms were not available we create a keiretsu default index, as a proxy, using expected default probabilities obtained from the KMV and Leland and Toft (J. Finance 51, 987–1019, 1996) option pricing models. We find parent credit spreads do not Granger cause our keiretsu default index and vice versa in a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework.JEL classification: G3, L62     

Using z-scores to evaluate accounting students: a test of Weinstein’s suggestion

Based on analysis using hypothetical data, Weinstein suggested that z-scores should be used in the determination of accounting students’ grades. The computation of z-scores mitigates the subjectivity caused by differences in the variances of the individual components that make up the total points for the course. We tested Weinstein’s suggestion using actual data to determine the degree to which subjectivity resulting from different variances influenced grades based on a total point distribution. The effect on actual final letter grades assigned was determined by comparing the rankings in grade distributions based on total points versus rankings based on z-scores. Findings show minimal overall effects on letter grade differences between total point and z-score-based methods. Because the results using actual data in our study found smaller differences than suggested by Weinstein’s hypothetical data, our findings do not indicate a compelling need to use a z-score standardization method in determining students’ grades. However, since using z-scores is easy and final grade rankings differed in some cases, instructors might find it useful to compute z-scores in addition to their normal grading procedures.     

Wall Street''s contribution to management accounting: the Stern Stewart EVAfinancial management system

EVA^®is a variant of residual income marketed byStern Stewart & Co., a New York consulting firm, with the purpose of promoting value–maximizing behaviour in corporate managers. This paper reviews the EVA system in the light of this purpose. First, it outlines the rationale for the use of residual income in ‘value-based management’, highlighting the potential shortcomings of residual income as a single-period performance indicator. Second, it considers the adjustments to GAAP-based accounting advocated by Stern Stewart in order to produce a more economically meaningful version of residual income (EVA) which might serve as an effective indicator of single-period performance. Third, it examines the Stern Stewart approach to the setting of EVA benchmarks. Finally, it reviews the logic behind the use of the ‘bonus bank’ to separate the award of EVA–based bonuses from the payment of such bonuses.     

Financial instruments with sports betting components: Marketing gimmick or a domain for behavioral finance?

We examine theoretically and experimentally a certain class of new financial instruments which are designed as lotteries on the outcome of prominent sports events like the Soccer World Cup 2006. From a theoretical point of view, sports betting products may be superior to a fixed rate investment because of heterogeneous expectations, risk-loving behavior of investors or additional non-monetary utility components. In comparison to the direct placement of bets at bookmakers’, sports betting products may be preferable in cases of hedonic framing. Our experimental section, however, reveals the limited practical relevance of these theoretical arguments for “average” decision makers. Despite this, financial instruments with sports betting components offer a certain profit potential due to the diversity of preferences across individuals. Summarizing, the issuance of sports betting products may actually be mainly driven by marketing aspects, nevertheless sports betting products may be considered to be “viable” niche products with low cost of capital for banks.     

The role of sharing in the circulation of knowledge

One of the points stressed in ‘A new paradigm in the organization of knowledge’, Futures, 26, 1994, pages 781–786, was the determinant role of sharing in the emergence and configuration of the paradigm of the immaterial. We resume the elements suggested then and develop their analysis in three stages: first, by characterizing the operational singularity of sharing; second, by considering its cognitive and disciplinary incidence; and finally, by pointing out its theoretical consequences, namely in what concerns the thematic of rationality.     

Traffic light options

This paper introduces, prices, and analyzes traffic light options. The traffic light option is an innovative structured OTC derivative developed independently by several London-based investment banks to suit the needs of Danish life and pension (L&P) companies, which must comply with the traffic light solvency stress test system introduced by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority (DFSA) in June 2001. This monitoring system requires L&P companies to submit regular reports documenting the sensitivity of the companies’ base capital to certain pre-defined market shocks – the red and yellow light scenarios. These stress scenarios entail drops in interest rates as well as in stock prices, and traffic light options are thus designed to pay off and preserve sufficient capital when interest rates and stock prices fall simultaneously. Sweden’s FSA implemented a traffic light system in January 2006, and supervisory authorities in many other European countries have implemented similar regulation. Traffic light options are therefore likely to attract the attention of a wider audience of pension fund managers in the future. Focusing on the valuation of the traffic light option we set up a Black–Scholes/Hull–White model to describe stock market and interest rate dynamics, and analyze the traffic light option in this framework.     

Monetary shocks, the exchange rate, and the trade balance

This paper investigates the response of the exchange rate and the trade balance to monetary policy innovations for the US economy during the period 1973:01–1993:12. The empirical findings indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to transitory appreciations of the real and the nominal exchange rate. Exchange rate appreciations that are caused by a temporary contractionary shock to monetary policy are correlated with a short-lived improvement in the trade balance which is then followed by a deterioration, giving support to the J-curve hypothesis.