How can we reliably measure the occurrence of non-fatal injury?

Introduction In England, there is no reliable indicator for measuring the occurrence of non-fatal injury. As a consequence, we do not know whether the rates of non-fatal injury are increasing or decreasing. Purpose This paper addresses two questions: what criteria should an indicator of non-fatal injury satisfy, and can we identify an indicator that satisfies these criteria? Method Criteria for a good indicator of non-fatal injury are postulated, and an indicator based on serious long-bone fractures is proposed. Inferences from the literature and the various non-fatal injury data to which we have access are used to justify the criteria, and to test the proposed indicator of serious injury against the criteria. Findings There is significant evidence to justify the use of the following criteria to assess indicators of non-fatal injury: the indicator should reflect the occurrence of injury satisfying some case definition of anatomical damage; the injury cases ascertained should be important in terms of incapacity, impairment, disability, quality of life, cost, and/or threat-to-life; cases should be completely ascertained from routinely or easily collected data; and the probability of a case being ascertained should be independent of social, health services supply and access factors. Our analysis indicates that an indicator based on serious long-bone fracture admitted to hospital is likely to satisfy each of these criteria for a good indicator. Conclusion An indicator of non-fatal injury occurrence based on serious long-bone fractures exhibits favourable characteristics when judged against our criteria for a good indicator.     

Epidemiology of unintentional child injuries in the South-East Asia Region: a systematic review

All the 11 members of the South-East Asia Region (SEAR) of the World Health Organization are categorised as low- and middle-income countries. This region has over a quarter of the world's total population but comprises about one-third of the world's unintentional injury-related deaths. There is a paucity of good-quality mortality and morbidity data from most of these countries. This is the first systematic review of community-based surveys on child injuries that summarises evidence from child injury studies from the SEAR countries. The included papers reported varying estimates of overall non-fatal unintentional injury rates across the countries, from 15/1000 children in Thailand to as high as 342/1000 children in India. The fatal injury rates were also found to be varying. This review revealed a need for strengthening child injury research using standard methodologies across the region and for promoting the dissemination of the results.     

Measuring and improving the performance of customs valuation controls: An illustration with Gabon

Modern customs administrations aim to both facilitate legal trade and combat fraud. To meet this dual objective, many customs administrations in developing countries must give risk management a highly prominent role. In this context of modernisation, this paper first provides stylised facts on the performance of the customs controls carried out at the Gabon border. Then, we compare Gabon′s granular import customs data with international trade statistics. Based on this comparison, we identify undetected fraud and present a methodology to target ex post audits. Finally, we define indicators to monitor the performance of customs valuation controls.     

The burden of road traffic injuries in Kermanshah Province,Iran, in 2010–2011: GBD 2010 method

Deaths, injuries and disabilities resulting from road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a public health major concern. This study aims to calculate the burden of RTIs in Kermanshah Province in Iran. In this study to determine the years of life lost (YLL) related to RTIs, the National Death Registration and Forensics Medicine census data were employed. We use forensic medicine data to calculate the incidence of non-fatal injuries and years lost due to disability (YLD). The cause of death and non-fatal injuries was classified using ICD-10 codes and 23 groupes of global burden of diseases (GBD) 2010. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) estimated on the guidelines of the GBD 2010 and age and sex structure was taken from the National Statistic Center for the year 2010. Overall, 70.8% of the subjects were males. The fatal and non-fatal injury rates of RTI were 51.3 and 283.6 per 100,000 persons, respectively. YLLs and YLDs were 46613 (24.5 per 1000) and 3405 (1.8 per 1000) in both sexes, respectively. The disability adjusted life years were 40711 in males, 9306 in females and 50018 in both sexes (42.5, 9.8 and 26.3 per 1000, respectively). More than 93% of DALY was from YLL (24.5 per 1000), with a small proportion for YLD (1.8 per 1000). Accounting for more than 50,000 DALY attributed to RTIs, traffic injuries is a major public health and socioeconomic problem in Kermanshah. Designing cost-effective interventions based on comprehensive and multi-sectoral programmes at the national and provincial levels can save many lives and resources that are lost every year. Undoubtedly, establishing a surveillance system at the sub-national level and measuring the burden of injuries, as in this study, can help policy-makers and planners in lessening the burden of RTIs.     

稻谷、小麦不完善粒项目检验操作细则

粮食不完善粒是反映原粮质量的重要指标。不完善粒指标在实践操作中,对于不完善粒的理解存在很大分歧,为了方便实践操作,本文对稻谷、小麦不完善粒项目检验操作细则进行了探讨。     

Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis

We investigate whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008–09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the recent crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators. Our motivation is to address suspicions that indicators found to be useful predictors in one round of crises are typically not useful to predict the next round. The review suggests that central bank reserves and past movements in the real exchange rate were the two leading indicators that had proven the most useful in explaining crisis incidence across different countries and episodes in the past. For the 2008–09 crisis, we use six different variables to measure crisis incidence: drops in GDP and industrial production, currency depreciation, stock market performance, reserve losses, and participation in an IMF program. We find that the level of reserves in 2007 appears as a consistent and statistically significant leading indicator of who got hit by the 2008–09 crisis, in line with the conclusions of the pre-2008 literature. In addition to reserves, recent real appreciation is a statistically significant predictor of devaluation and of a measure of exchange market pressure during the current crisis. We define the period of the global financial shock as running from late 2008 to early 2009, which probably explains why we find stronger results than earlier papers such as Obstfeld et al. (2009, 2010) and Rose and Spiegel (2009a,b, 2010, 2011) which use annual data.     

National burden of road traffic injuries in Argentina

More than 1.2 million people die and as many as 50 million people are injured or disabled due to road traffic injuries (RTIs) every year worldwide. The lack of reliable data hinders efforts to describe the characteristics of the issue and prioritise prevention activities. The objective was to provide a snapshot of fatal and non-fatal RTI in Argentina. We used the methodology proposed by the Global Burden of Disease Injury Expert group. External causes of deaths with unknown codes were proportionately redistributed over the known categories. In 2007 in Argentina, we estimated 5915 RTI deaths, compared with 3983 RTI deaths reported previously by the Ministry of Health, accounting for 1931 additional cases. The highest number of deaths occurred in young men (15-29 years old), although the highest RTI death rates were in the age group of 55 years and older. Four-wheeled vehicle occupants were the most common road user type killed (59.1%); vulnerable road users represented one third (29.5%) of deaths and 64% of non-fatal RTI. The national and regional estimates of RTI in Argentina should help policy makers and public-health researchers to understand the importance of RTI prevention and design specific interventions to further reduce these preventable deaths and injuries.     

Methodological issues in comparing injury incidence across countries

The primary objective was to describe the methodological challenges and devise solutions to compare injury incidence across countries. The research design was a mixed methods study, consisting of a consultation with an expert group and comparison of injury surveillance systems and data from ten European countries. A subset of fractures, selected radiologically verifiable fractures and a method of checking the national representativeness of sample emergency department data were devised and are proposed for further development. These methodological considerations and developments will be further refined and tested and should prove useful tools for those who need to compare injury incidence data across countries.     

Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets

We apply recently developed early warning indicator systems to a cross-section of emerging markets. We find that, with little or no modification, models designed to predict asset price booms/busts in advanced countries may be useful for emerging markets. The concept of monitoring a set of asset prices, real activity and financial indicators is generally found to be efficacious. We also find that, in addition to this set of variables, early warning indicator systems for emerging countries may be augmented with capital flow indicators.     

Road traffic crashes with fatal and non-fatal injuries in Arkhangelsk,Russia in 2005–2010

The study investigated trends in traffic crashes with fatal and non-fatal injuries in Arkhangelsk, Russia in 2005–2010. Data were obtained from the road police. Negative binomial regression with time regressor was used to investigate trends in monthly incidence rates (IRs) of crashes, fatalities, and non-fatal injuries. During the six-year period, the police registered 4955 crashes with fatal and non-fatal injuries, which resulted in 217 fatalities and 5964 non-fatal injury cases. The IR of crashes with fatal and non-fatal injuries per total population showed no evident change, while the IR per increasing total number of motor vehicles decreased on average by 0.6% per month. Pedestrian crashes constituted 51.8% of studied crashes, and pedestrians constituted 54.6% of fatalities and 44.5% of non-fatal injuries. The IRs of pedestrian crashes and non-fatal pedestrian injuries per total population decreased on average by 0.3% per month, and these were the major trends in the data.     

Toward understanding socio-economic inequalities in injury incidence and mortality

The existing knowledge on socio-economic inequality in injury risks is scarce and inconsistent and there is still a great need for sound epidemiological studies in this field. When performing these studies, the injury research community could benefit from the experience gained within other areas of public health. A recent project from the European Union has led, for example, to a set of proposed guidelines on several methodological aspects. Many of these are probably relevant for the injury problem field and will be addressed. Major issues are: – The distinction between individual-level and area-based studies; – The selection, measurement and classification of possible socio-economic indicators; – The expression of the magnitude of health inequalities with the help of possible summary indices; – The definition of the outcome measure (morbidity or mortality, general or specific). This paper illustrates the relevance of the aforementioned methodological issues with empirical data. Results are shown from both individual-level and area-based studies, using different socio-economic indicators and outcome measures. It is concluded that a systematic approach towards understanding socio-economic differences in injury incidence and mortality has not yet been conducted and seems highly needed. Future work in this area could benefit from experience gained within other areas of public health.     

The mortuary as a source of injury data: progress towards a mortuary data guideline for fatal injury surveillance

To help bridge the obstacle of inadequate injury fatality data in low and medium income countries (LMICs) a simple cost effective system for mortuary surveillance of fatal injuries is being developed in consultation with the WHO. This will inform, direct and monitor injury prevention (IP) interventions and policies in LMICs. This article uses CDC's 'attributes of a successful surveillance system' to describe the process, the barriers and solutions in development of this mortuary data guideline. The consultative process utilised generated feedback from key stakeholders including forensic pathologists, Ministry of Health officials and injury prevention experts. An International Advisory Group was also convened to guide the guideline development. These assisted the adjustment of the proposed guideline to maximise flexibility, acceptability and stability; whilst minimising resource implications. Representativeness and the securing of government support perhaps remain the most significant challenges. Consultation with the advisory group and the wider stakeholders has been effective in developing a widely acceptable, user-friendly, low resource data form to gather useful data. Further strategies to overcome barriers need to be developed over the course of the pilot study and this should be done in consultation with the advisory group and stakeholders.     

Analysis of the mechanism of injury in non-fatal vehicle-to-pedestrian and vehicle-to-bicyclist frontal crashes in Sweden

The aim of this paper is to analyse and compare injuries and injury sources in pedestrian and bicyclist non-fatal real-life frontal passengercar crashes, considering in what way pedestrian injury mitigation systems also might be adequate for bicyclists. Data from 203 non-fatal vehicle-to-pedestrian and vehicle-to-bicyclist crashes from 1997 through 2006 in a city in northern Sweden were analysed by use of the hospitals injury data base in addition to interviews with the injured. In vehicle-to-pedestrian crashes (n = 103) head and neck injuries were in general due to hitting the windscreen frame, while in vehicle-to-bicycle crashes (n = 100) head and neck injuries were typically sustained by ground impact. Abdominal, pelvic and thoracic injuries in pedestrians and thoracic injuries in bicyclists were in general caused by impacting the bonnet. In vehicle-to-pedestrian crashes, energy reducing airbags at critical impact points with low yielding ability on the car, as the bonnet and the windscreen frame, might reduce injuries. As vehicle-to-bicyclist crashes occurred mostly in good lighting conditions and visibility and the ground impact causing almost four times as many injuries as an impact to the different regions of the car, crash avoidance systems as well as separating bicyclists from motor traffic, may contribute to mitigate these injuries.     

Imperfect Duties and Corporate Philanthropy: A Kantian Approach

Nonprofit organizations play a crucial role in society. Unfortunately, many such organizations are chronically underfunded and struggle to meet their objectives. These facts have significant implications for corporate philanthropy and Kant’s notion of imperfect duties. Under the concept of imperfect duties, businesses would have wide discretion regarding which charities receive donations, how much money to give, and when such donations take place. A perceived problem with imperfect duties is that they can lead to moral laxity; that is, a failure on the part of businesses to fulfill their financial obligations to nonprofit organizations. This article argues the problem of moral laxity rests on a misinterpretation of Kantian ethics and, therefore, is really not a problem at all. As such, we argue corporate philanthropy while an imperfect duty should be interpreted more akin to perfect duties and, as a consequence, moral laxity does not arise for those corporations committed to acting on the basis of the moral law. More specifically, firms have duty-based obligations on the basis of benevolence, and as good corporate citizens, to help fund non-profit organizations.     

Magic mirror in my hand … How trade mirror statistics can help us detect illegal financial flows

Misreporting tricks of different sorts applied to the transfer of goods between different countries are typically exploited by criminals worldwide for money laundering ends. The main international anti‐money laundering organisations started paying attention to this phenomenon, dubbed “trade‐based money laundering” (TBML), a long time ago, but the failure to develop appropriate analytical tools has reportedly dogged preventive actions. Nonetheless, literature has widely advocated the possibility that the analysis of inconsistencies in mirrored bilateral trade data could provide some help. By building on previous contributions in the field, this work sets up a model factoring in the main structural determinants of discrepancies between mirrored data concerning Italy's 2010 to 2013 external trade at a highly detailed (6‐digit) level of goods classification for each partner country. Point estimates of freight costs are used to net each observation of the corresponding cif/fob discrepancy. The regression estimates are then deployed in order to compute TBML risk indicators at a country/4‐digit product level. Based on the indicators, rankings of countries and product lines can be compiled, which may be used for a risk‐driven search of potential illegal commercial transactions.     

A New Global Index of Infrastructure: Construction,Rankings and Applications

We construct comprehensive and comparable indices on the most relevant components of economic infrastructure. An unobserved components model is employed to cover the largest possible number of developing and developed countries over the period 1990–2010. We map major findings from the new indices of infrastructure and provide country rankings, which we also compare with subjective assessments of infrastructure in the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report. Finally, we exemplify possible applications related to trade and foreign aid. By overcoming several data limitations, our new global index can help assess the links between infrastructure and economic development more systematically.     

Credit gaps as banking crisis predictors: A different tune for middle- and low-income countries

The aim of this paper is to assess the quality of credit-based variables as early warning indicators of systemic banking crises. The existing literature focuses mainly on developed economies and shows that the best performing indicator is the credit-to-GDP gap computed via one-sided HP filter (the so-called Basel credit gap). The empirical evidence legitimates the use of the credit-to-GDP gap as a key indicator in macro-prudential banking regulation, i.e., in the determination of the countercyclical capital buffer. We take advantage of a new database on bank credit series and credit gaps covering more than 160 countries (Bouvatier, Delatte and Rehault, 2022) to focus specifically on middle- and low-income countries. Our findings suggest that the credit-to-GDP gap remains the single best performing indicator regarding the high-income group while the same does not hold for middle- and low-income countries. This result highlights that a one-size-fits-all approach is not relevant in the design of the operational framework of the countercyclical capital buffer. Further, we show that the credit gap turns to be a fair banking crises predictor when the financial development, captured by the trend’s value in credit-to-GDP ratio, exceeds 20%.     

信心、预期和中国经济周期波动

有关文献大多将预期视为不可观测的潜变量,本文尝试考察预期的可观测性。首先采用混频时变DFM方法估计了中国的潜在产出,以代表经济基本面,发现中国经济在2008年金融危机前就开始下行。接着构建了一个不完全信息SVAR模型,基于动态识别方法估计预期冲击和噪声冲击的影响。研究发现:消费者信心指数“错误”预期主要宏观变量的变化;相较而言,商业信心指数是更好的预期指标,但包含噪声成分。以商业信心指数为预期变量,预期冲击对主要宏观变量形成持久的正向效应,预期冲击解释了潜在产出变化的60%,解释了GDP变化的55%;噪声冲击对宏观变量具有正向“驼峰状”影响,对GDP的短期解释力超过8%。消费者信心指数表现不佳可能源于消费和宏观经济的脱节。本文的基本结论在大数据集、替代指标、基本面检验以及其他识别方式下依然成立。     

Entrepreneurial Signaling via Education: A Success Factor in Innovative Start-Ups

Unlike traditional start-ups, innovative start-ups and their respective market partners are faced with severe problems of asymmetric information due to their lack of prior production history and reputation. Here, we study whether and how entrepreneurial signaling via education can help innovative entrepreneurs signal their abilities to banks and prospective employees. We argue that innovative entrepreneurs signal their quality by means of certain characteristics of their educational history. In particular, we expect potential employees to use an entrepreneur’s university degree as a quality signal when deciding whether to accept a job at an innovative start-up, and we expect banks to use a more precise indicator, namely the actual length of study in relation to a standard length, as a signal when deciding to extend credit to an innovative founder. By contrast, traditional start-ups are not faced with the same problems of asymmetric information, so we do not expect employees or banks to require the same signals from them. We empirically test our hypotheses using a dataset of more than 700 German start-ups collected in 1998/99. All hypotheses are borne out by the data.     

空间经济集聚理论的兴起与演进

新经济地理学的空间集聚理论是克鲁格曼、藤田昌久、维纳布尔斯等学者在迪克西特和斯蒂格利茨所创立的D-S模型基础上不断扩展而逐步形成的.其不完全竞争假设对实际情况具有更强的解释力,可以深化我们对空间集聚问题的理解和把握.随着新经济地理学空间经济集聚理论的不断完善和发展,目前该理论已在世界贸易格局、城市形成、产业集聚等经济问题研究中得到了不同程度的实际应用,为解释经济活动的集聚与扩散现象提供了新的视角、理论、方法和工具.