通货膨胀预期形成、锚定:基于消费者和经济学家预期的分析

本文在区分居民通货膨胀预期和经济学家通货膨胀预期的基础上,研究通货膨胀预期形成和锚定的特点,发现经济学家通货膨胀预期呈现不规则的正态分布,往往在通货膨胀实际值较低时更多的经济学家做出偏高预期.居民通货膨胀预期显示低收入阶层对物价上涨更为敏感,大城市居民通货膨胀预期最敏感.总体如果半数以上的人认为物价上涨,则出现恶性通货膨胀的概率增加.发现居民物价预期指数是通货膨胀的格兰杰成冈,但经济学家通货膨胀预期却不必然导致通货膨胀发生.国际比较发现英国居民物价预期指数显著高于中国.锚定通货膨胀预期的关键是防止通货膨胀预期加速形成,防止中央银行陷入通货膨胀预期陷阱,为此需要单一化中央银行职责,建立通货膨胀预期中期监测机制,竖立中央银行反对通货膨胀的信任度.     

通货膨胀预期及其宏观调控

一、通货膨胀预期概述 (一)通货膨胀预期的含义 通货膨胀预期是人们对于未来一定时期不确定的通货膨胀的主观判断和事前估计,包括对未来通货膨胀的变动方向以及幅度的预测.它能改变经济主体的消费和投资等行为,从而影响未来的实际通货膨胀水平.     

政府信任与居民通货膨胀预期

本文实证分析了不同经济形势下居民对政府的信任程度对其通胀预期的影响。基于2005年、2007年和2009年三年的中国城镇居民家庭调查混合截面数据,考虑到居民对政府信任程度的内生性可能,工具变量回归结果显示:在经济形势平稳时,居民的政府信任程度对其预期的未来通胀水平没有显著影响;在经济形势较好时,居民较高的政府信任程度会导致其预期的未来通胀水平较低,即这种影响显著为负;在经济形势较差时,这种影响显著为正。此外,与初中教育程度以下的居民相比,初中教育程度及以上的居民的政府信任程度对其通胀预期的影响更显著。这说明,不同的经济形势下,政府会在经济增长、充分就业与物价稳定等宏观调控目标之间权衡,而这种权衡会通过居民的政府信任机制对其通胀预期产生不同影响。本文的政策涵义在于:相关部门在制订通胀预期管理政策时,应该充分考虑政策作用客体即居民的异质性特征对政策效力影响的可能性和复杂性。     

缓解通货膨胀预期的策略思考

通货膨胀的发生会对国民经济发展产生各种不良影响,导致产业和经济结构的畸形变化.通货膨胀预期作为通货膨胀的心理延续对通货膨胀的再现起着举足轻重的作用,所以采取何种措施缓解通货膨胀预期成为中国政策运行的重点.当前通货膨胀预期是需求拉动型、成本推进型和预期型三种类型交叉,金融预期和金融作用紧密结合、投资过热、原材料成本价格上升及市场预期的影响成为通货膨胀预期动因.准确分解通货膨胀预期的成因,采取有针对性的调控政策,落实科学发展观,进行增长模式的改革以及明确宏观经济政策目标,通过合理预期应对通货膨胀预期等措施,成为缓解通货膨胀预期的必经之路.     

美国通货膨胀对中国通胀预期的影响研究

本文基于理性预期与预期形成的传染病学模型,将外部通货膨胀因素引入通货膨胀预期形成机制之中,采用MTARDL模型实证检验美国通货膨胀对中国通货膨胀预期的作用机制。研究结果表明,美国通货膨胀在中国通货膨胀预期形成机制中具有明显的非对称特征,其上涨对通货膨胀预期的催化效果远大于下降造成的抑制效应,而且美国通货膨胀对国内通货膨胀预期的影响存在结构性突变,相比于断点前,其影响效果在断点后更加强劲且作用过程趋于复杂化。与此同时,国内货币政策对通货膨胀预期的调控效果正逐渐下降。研究结果显示,国内货币当局在对公众通货膨胀预期引导过程中应更加注重美国通货膨胀的动态变化,同时优化货币政策的传导机制及政策效率。     

中国通胀预期、通货膨胀和农产品价格的关系研究

在引入通胀预期这一因素后,根据2002—2011年样本利用VAR方法对通胀预期、通货膨胀和农产品价格三者之间的动态关系进行实证分析。研究发现,三个变量具有很强的趋同性,通胀预期和通货膨胀均有明显的惯性,并且通胀预期对通胀的影响要大于通胀对通胀预期的影响;农产品价格和通货膨胀之间存在着双向的因果关系,农产品价格受到通货膨胀56%的决定性影响,而农产品价格对通货膨胀的影响仅为14%。     

结构性通货膨胀与通货膨胀预期形成机制

本文从食品与非食品、消费与非消费两个层次对2001—2019年期间中国的结构性通胀特征进行刻画,并基于预期形成的传染病学模型和适应性学习模型,将结构性通胀特征纳入通胀预期形成机制的微观基础模型,分别采用单方程回归和SVAR模型来实证分析结构性通胀对通胀预期的影响机制。结果显示:居民和专家预期对结构性通胀的即期反应模式相似,食品类和非食品类通胀率均正向驱动通胀预期,不过后者驱动效应高于前者;通胀预期仅受消费类通胀率影响,而非消费类通胀率对预期没有显著驱动效应。同时,通胀预期对结构性通胀冲击的动态响应模式与即期反应整体相似,但存在微妙区别:从食品与非食品类划分来看,居民和专家预期均对非食品类通胀率冲击做出持续正向响应,对于食品类通胀率冲击的响应基本不显著;从消费与非消费类划分来看,居民和专家预期均仅对消费类通胀率冲击做出持续正向响应,对非消费类通胀率冲击无显著响应。研究结果暗示,我国经济主体在形成预期时对非食品类通胀率更加敏感,决策层对通胀预期的引导可以给予相应关注。     

通货膨胀预期与粮食价格动态

本文根据粮食价格"超调"假说研究通货膨胀对短期粮价和工业品价格变动的不同影响。理论模型认为,存在通货膨胀预期时,粮食价格一般先于工业品价格上涨,不过这种时间先后关系不应解释为粮价上涨导致了工业品价格上涨,而仅是因为粮价能够更快根据通货膨胀预期做出调整。"超调"假说还认为,一般而言粮价波动领先于工业品价格波动,粮价波动幅度也会大于工业品价格波动幅度;而且,货币扩张和通货膨胀被预期到的时间越早,粮价的变动越平缓。以上理论结果得到了中国1988-2006年数据以及向量GARCH模型经验结果的支持。     

通货膨胀预期、货币政策工具选择与宏观经济稳定

基于含消费惯性和金融加速器的动态随机一般均衡模型,定量解析了不同货币政策工具下通胀预期偏差对宏观经济稳定的影响.结果发现,价格型工具调控下,通胀预期偏差对经济有正面影响,而数量型工具调控时有负面影响;短期内,数量型工具能更有效遏制通胀,长期看,价格型工具的调控效应更显著.研究表明,央行应有针对性的搭配不同政策工具,构建基于资产价格的广义价格指标和通货膨胀预期测度,提高政策的可信性和可测性,实现对通胀预期的有效引导与调控.     

通货膨胀预期与通货膨胀加速的关系及治理对策

将预期引入通货膨胀理论研究,是现代通货膨胀理论的一个重大贡献。通货膨胀预期作为一种主观心理要素已成为客观通货膨胀的"助推剂"与"加速器"。稳定并消除通货膨胀预期,遏止通货膨胀加速,不仅要从生产、流通、分配、消费四个领域加大力度,还要使通货膨胀预期收益不断降低。不断提高劳动者的工资收入,使之指数化、法制化则是遏止通货膨胀的根本之策。     

Inflation Targeting and Inflation Uncertainty

This article empirically investigates the impact of inflation targeting on inflation uncertainty. We implement PARCH and GARCH methodologies to model conditional variance of inflation. We also investigate the relationship between level and volatility of inflation to analyze the validity of the Friedman hypothesis for IT countries. We find that most of the inflation targeting countries have significantly lower inflation variances after inflation targeting. In most of the IT countries, the relationship is consistent with the Friedman hypothesis.     

Inflation Targeting and Inflation Persistence

This paper argues that the adoption of an inflation target reduces the persistence of inflation.We develop the theoretical literature on inflation persistence by introducing a Taylor Rule for monetary policy into a model of persistence and showing that inflation targets reduce inflation persistence.We investigate changes in the time series properties of inflation in seven countries that introduced inflation targets in the late 1980s or early 1990s.We find that the persistence of inflation is greatly reduced or eliminated following the introduction of inflation targets.     

中国通货膨胀率及其波动关系分析

有关通货膨胀率和通货膨胀率波动影响关系,存在F riedm an-B a ll和Cuk ierm an-M e ltzer两种假说,即存在通货膨胀率及其波动的相互影响关系。使用GARCH和TGARCH模型,选择中国1993~2004年月度通货膨胀率数据,检验结果表明F riedm an-B a ll假说成立,稳健的货币政策对经济发展有积极作用。     

Inflation, Inflation Variability, and Corruption

We present a model where agents can inflate the cost of goods needed to start an investment project and inflation variability increases monitoring costs. We show that inflation variability can lead to higher corruption and lower investment. We document a positive relationship between corruption and inflation variability in a sample of 75 countries. The effect is robust to the inclusion of country fixed effects, other controls, and 2SLS estimation. The results are economically significant: a one standard deviation increase in inflation variance from the median increases corruption by 12 percent of a standard deviation and reduces growth by 0.33 percentage points. Our paper highlights a new channel through which inflation reduces investment and growth, thus bridging the perception gap over the costs of inflation between economists and the public. We also find evidence that political competition reduces corruption and that corruption is pro-cyclical.     

Inflation Targeting and Regional Inflation Persistence: Evidence from Korea

The adoption of a credible monetary policy regime such as inflation targeting is known to reduce the persistence of inflation fluctuations. This conclusion, however, is typically derived from aggregate inflation or sectoral inflation rates, not from regional inflation data. This paper studies the regional dimension of inflation targeting; that is, the consequences of inflation targeting for regional inflation persistence. Based on data for Korean cities and provinces it is shown that the adoption of inflation targeting leads: (i) to a fall in inflation persistence at the regional level; and (ii) to a reduction in the cross‐regional heterogeneity in inflation persistence. A factor model lends further support to the role of the common component, and, hence, monetary policy, for regional inflation persistence.     

Delays of Inflation Stabilizations

In some new political economic models, delays of stabilizations result from coordination problems caused by collective choice-making mechanisms. Although several previous studies have tested the effects of political instability and fragmentation on seigniorage, deficits, or inflation, no direct tests of the influence of these factors on the delays of stabilizations have previously been undertaken. This paper reports the results of such tests. The degree of fragmentation of the political system and the level of inflation are identified as important determinants of the timing of inflation stabilizations.     

Inflation, Price Level and Hybrid Rules under Inflation Uncertainty

The performance and robustness of optimised interest rate rules are analysed in a New Keynesian model estimated for the euro area economy. In particular, we examine the properties of rules responding to inflation, the price level, or a combination of the two (a hybrid rule). All the rules also respond to the output gap. The optimal hybrid rule is only marginally superior when there is no model uncertainty. When there is uncertainty about the degree of inflation persistence, the inflation rule is the most robust rule and the performance of the other two rules deteriorates. However, all the rules perform well if the true degree of inflation persistence turns out to be less than policymakers’ estimate.