On US politics and IMF lending

The political factors shaping IMF lending to developing countries have attracted attention in recent empirical work. This goes in particular for the role and influence of the US. However, scant formal modelling makes interpretation of empirical results difficult. In this paper, we propose a model in which the US acts as principal within the IMF and seeks to maximize its impact on the policy stance of debtor countries. We derive an optimal loan allocation mechanism, which leads to the testable hypothesis that the probability of an IMF loan is increasing in the amount of political concessions countries make. A political concession is defined as the distance between a country's bliss point and its actual policy stance measured relative to the US. We introduce a bliss-point proxy and demonstrate that our hypothesis is strongly supported in the data. Moreover, we show that not accounting for bliss points may lead to endogeneity bias in empirical work.     

The political economy of conditionality: An empirical analysis of World Bank loan disbursements

Traditional aid conditionality has been attacked as ineffective in part because aid agencies – notably the World Bank – often fail to enforce conditions. This pattern undermines the credibility of conditionality, weakening incentives to implement policy reforms. The standard critique attributes this time inconsistency to bureaucratic factors within the aid agency such as pressure to lend, defensive lending, or short-sighted altruism. Pressure from powerful donors provides another potential explanation for lax enforcement. This paper presents an empirical analysis of the political economy of conditionality in international organizations using the case of the World Bank and the United States. The analysis examines panel data on World Bank disbursements to 97 countries receiving structural adjustment loans between 1984 and 2005. Using UN voting as an indicator of alignment with the U.S., the paper presents evidence that World Bank structural adjustment loan disbursements are less dependent on macroeconomic performance in countries aligned with the United States.     

The tyranny of international index rankings

International index rankings are popular, but perhaps too persuasive. They emphasize country differences where similarity is the dominant feature. Rankings based on Doing Business, the Human Development Index and Freedom House can be misleading, not because of wrong indicators, but because the estimation of the scores ignores inherent uncertainty. Re-estimated with a method that captures this uncertainty, it becomes clear that ranking every adjacent country is a rather courageous activity.     

ICT and productivity: conclusions from the empirical literature

Innovation drives economic competitiveness and sustained long-term economic growth. Especially the emergence and intensive utilization of information and communication technologies (ICTs), which spawned the beginning of the digital economy two decades ago, heavily affected the opportunities and efficiency of how firms produce and provide goods and services. We provide an overview of the empirical literature on ICT and productivity and highlight the main results and methodological differences. The majority of studies indicates that the productivity effect of ICT is indeed positive and significant. However, methodological approaches of how to appropriately estimate the ICT effect matter. While aggregate and sectoral growth accounting exercises suggest stronger differences of the ICT effect between US and Europe, firm-level analyses suggest no significant country differences. Moreover, we shed light on the notion of ICT being a General Propose Technology (GPT) enabling further innovations. Most of the GPT evidence on ICT is found for the US, while evidence for European countries is harder to come by. However, more theoretical and empirical research is needed to better understand spillovers and externalities of ICT and how these technologies transform our economies.     

3D printing,international trade,and FDI

We analyze the relationship between 3D printing technology, the volume of trade, and the structure of foreign direct investment (FDI). We present a standard trade model with firm-specific heterogeneity into which we include 3D printing as a technology choice for foreign direct investment. The model generates three predictions. First, 3D printers are introduced in areas with high economic activity that face high transport costs. Second, technological progress in 3D printing leads to FDI dependent on traditional techniques gradually being replaced by FDI based on 3D printing. Third, with wider adoption, further technological progress in 3D printing leads to a gradual replacement of international trade. Empirical evidence focusing on the sectors with the highest rates of adoption supports the first hypothesis, while evidence from a case study supports the second and third. Our results suggest that the traditional strategy of poor countries for export-led industrialization is threatened by the widespread adoption of 3D printing that replaces international trade.     

Foreign ownership and corporate income taxation: An empirical evaluation

Foreign ownership allows countries to effectively export part of their corporate tax burden. Hence, countries with high foreign ownership are expected to impose relatively high corporate taxes. The findings of this paper suggest that there indeed is an economically significant positive relationship between foreign ownership and tax burdens in Europe. Already significant foreign ownership levels in Europe offer an explanation for the absence of a ‘race to the bottom’ in corporate tax levels.     

The effects of economic and political integration on fiscal decentralization: evidence from OECD countries

Abstract .  This paper examines the impact of economic and political integration on the vertical government structure. It argues that, by increasing the market size and the benefits of decentralized provision of public goods, integration triggered the recent process of decentralization in OECD countries. A panel analysis relates the degree of fiscal decentralization to economic and European integration, controlling for interregional heterogeneity, economies of scale, and institutions. The results mostly support a decentralizing effect of economic integration in general and of European integration in particular for heterogeneous EU countries, whereas participation of subnational governments in national decision-making is associated with more centralization.     

Decentralization and international tax competition

This paper models tax competition between two countries that are divided into regions. In the first stage of the game, the strategy variable for each country is the division of a continuum of public goods between central and regional government provision. In the second stage, the central and regional governments choose their tax rates on capital. A country's decentralization level serves as a strategic tool through its influence on the mix of horizontal and vertical externalities that exists under tax competition. In contrast to standard tax competition models, decentralizing the provision of public goods may improve welfare.     

Do external interventions work? The case of trade reform conditions in IMF supported programs

Trade reform conditions are common in IMF supported programs. Of the 99 countries that had IMF programs during 1993-2003, 77 had trade reform conditions in their programs. Since the WTO has not been found especially effective in promoting trade openness for most developing countries, it is of great interest to see if the IMF has been more effective as it combines carrots and sticks not available to the WTO. Yet, the effectiveness of these trade conditions has not been systematically studied. Using a unique dataset, this paper provides such an assessment. It finds that trade conditions are indeed associated with an increase in trade openness on average, but the effect comes mostly from countries that can be characterized by a high degree of “willingness to reform.”     

R&D Strategy in International Mixed Duopoly with Research Spillovers

This paper examines the international mixed duopoly behaviour with research spillovers. Using a two‐stage game with Research and Development (R&D) and output, we investigate the effects of imperfectly appropriable R&D on optimal R&D strategies of a domestic public firm and a foreign private firm across different market interactions: (i) international R&D competition, (ii) only the foreign firm conducts R&D, (iii) only the domestic public firm conducts R&D, (iv) no firm conducts R&D, and (v) research joint venture. The results show that firms' research performances are determined by the degree of spillovers and the optimal R&D strategies involve R&D competition. Spillovers are shown to be socially beneficial and their absence can prove to be a strategic deterrent, with the public firm monopolising the market. Some of these findings contrast with the traditional models of oligopoly (with or without R&D) and mixed oligopoly (without R&D).     

The impact of trade costs on exports: An empirical modeling

Studies, which have discussed some of the important issues concerning the measurement of trade costs, have conceded that the literature is still in the early stages of understanding and measuring what the real costs are. It is in this context, decomposing trade costs into ‘natural’ costs, ‘behind the border’ costs, ‘explicit beyond the border’ costs, and ‘implicit beyond the border’ costs, this paper suggests a method to measure the impacts of these components on changes in exports between countries in the absence of complete information on all the components of trade costs in home and partner countries. Empirical measurement has been demonstrated using 1999 and 2004 trade data from Pakistan. The results show that Pakistan's export growth between 1999 and 2004 came mainly from the reduction in both ‘explicit and implicit beyond the border’ trade costs in partner countries.     

Aid volatility and poverty traps

This paper studies the impact of aid volatility in a two-period model where production may occur with either a traditional or a modern technology. Public spending is productive and “time to build” requires expenditure in both periods for the modern technology to be used. The possibility of a poverty trap induced by high aid volatility is first examined in a benchmark case where taxation is absent. The analysis is then extended to account for self insurance (taking the form of a first-period contingency fund) financed through taxation. An increase in aid volatility is shown to raise the optimal contingency fund. But if future aid also depends on the size of the contingency fund (as a result of a moral hazard effect on donors' behavior), the optimal policy may entail no self insurance.     

FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND ECONOMIC VOLATILITY: EVIDENCE FROM STATE‐LEVEL CROSS‐SECTION DATA OF THE USA*

This paper examines the implications of fiscal decentralization for economic stability. It has been discussed that fiscal decentralization reduces the variance of GDP growth, due to the greater diversification of performance across jurisdictions. We examine this theoretical result using a panel data set of the 50 states of the USA over the period of 1992–1997. We show that the theoretical specification of the production function is supported. We also show a negative significant relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic volatility. The results are robust when we take into account the endogeneity of fiscal decentralization.     

The choice of exchange rate regime: An empirical analysis for transition economies*

We analyze the choice of exchange rate regimes of the 25 transition economies in Europe and the CIS after 1990. The empirical results show that the traditional Optimum Currency Area considerations provide relevant guidance for the regime choices in these countries. Moreover, regime choices are influenced by inflation rates, cumulative inflation differentials, and international reserves sufficiency. That is, macroeconomic stabilization and the ability to commit to exchange rate pegs also play important roles. Large government deficits have ambiguous effects; they increase the likelihood of moving from flexible to intermediate regimes as well as that of moving from fixed to intermediate ones.     

Korean Unification: Economic Adjustments under German Assumptions

This paper explores the impact of unification on North and South Korea under the hypothetical scenario that German‐type reunification occurs in the Korean peninsula. Simulation results using a global dynamic general equilibrium model show that with comprehensive market‐oriented reform and opening, the North Korean economy could capitalize on its growth potentials. Unification can reduce the growth rate in South Korea for a certain period following the unification shock due to the transfer of resources out of the South into the North and an increase in risk on the Korea peninsula. Due to the relative sizes in population and per capita gross domestic product of the two Koreas, unification can be more disruptive on North and South Korea, compared to the experience of Germany. The critical factors determining the economic effects of unification are the nature of wage‐adjustment, the size of resource transfers from the South to North, and exchange rate policy.     

Procurement favouritism and technology adoption

It is well known that the design of cost minimizing procurement rules for the selection of a contractor among distinct technological groups requires the favouritism of inefficient firms. In this paper, I show that, if technology adoption is non-contractible, these policies will also provide optimal incentives for the inefficient firms to adopt more efficient technologies.     

The impact of endogenous tax treaties on foreign direct investment: theory and evidence

Abstract .  This paper investigates the effect of tax treaties on bilateral stocks of outward FDI. For this purpose we employ a numerically solvable general equilibrium model of trade and multinational firms to study the impact of tax treaties on both welfare and outward FDI. The model indicates under which factor endowment configurations countries gain in welfare when implementing a tax treaty. This motivates an empirical specification of the endogenous selection into implementing new tax treaties. Using data of bilateral OECD outward FDI between 1985 and 2000, we find a significant negative impact of newly implemented tax treaties on outward FDI stocks.     

Product variety and technical change

Motivated by growth models based on the variety of capital goods, recent empirical studies have established links between productivity and several trade-based measures of product variety, carrying the implication that these measures may represent technology. We study this implication by explicitly proposing the variety of capital goods available for production as a direct measure of the state of technology. Within a simple growth and development framework, we derive a ‘conditional technological convergence’ hypothesis on how this variety should behave if it were indeed to represent the state of technology. The hypothesis is tested with highly disaggregated trade data, using tools from the income convergence literature. The results suggest that a trade-based count measure of the variety of available capital goods, allowing for product differentiation by country of origin, indeed behaves ‘as if’ it represented technology when change of technology is understood as a learning process, and that there is conditional technological convergence among our panel of mainly OECD and transition economies.