美国楼市泡沫推倒的多米诺骨牌

2008年的中国股市为什么如此震荡?如果你花一点时间读一读美国楼市泡沫的故事,也许你自然会从中得出答案。蔡林海博士的新著《美国楼市泡沫的故事:次贷危机与股市震荡》,正是继2007年的《日本的经济泡沫与失去的10年》之后他第二本有关经济泡沫的专著。     

投机过度产生泡沫

随着政府加大对房地产市场的调控力度，内地房地产市场上存在的泡沫正在不断被挤压出来，人们担心的是，投机性泡沫破灭之后最终将会导致什么样的结局，是平稳着陆，还是一蹶不振?虽然就目前来说，这还是一个谜，但如果能找到形成泡沫的原因，也许就能在泡沫形成的时候就发现泡沫，     

论中国经济如何避免从泡沫走向危机——以日本为鉴

在不同的国家及不甩的政治经济环境下,经济中都可能会有“泡沫”产生,而且经济快速发展过程中,泡沫是不能够完全避免的;然而,在相同的因素下,“泡沫”却并非必然走向“危机”。从日本的经历中了解到：所谓的“泡沫”在一定的宏观环境下是如何逐渐演化并最终形成“危机”的。在这一演变过程中存在很多环节,任何一环都有可能对危机的产生有所“贡献”,如果中国能够遏制其中的一环,金融危机也许就能够避免。     

创始人现象

中国有句俗话，富不过三代，如今经常被用来描述家族企业的短命问题。     

2006商业思想家论坛年度前瞻——2006年世界经济将适度减速

2005经济年，全球经济弥漫着泡沫；2006年，又将怎样？ 我们认为，2006年的全球经济仍将处于一个巨大的泡沫之中，混乱将再次贯穿始终。这个泡沫（如房地产、股市和大宗商品）的价值可能超过15万亿美元，也许是有史以来规模最大的泡沫。中国和印度处在这个最大泡沫的中心。形成泡沫的最大原因是，全球主要经济体的宽松货币供应政策，以及通货膨胀依然保持较低水平。     

品牌与泡泡

没有人会把品牌同泡沫联系在一起，但诺基亚的坠落，似乎暗示着品牌在某种程度上很像泡沫，至少，如果企业不努力吹着这个大泡泡的话，很快品牌就会华丽的消失。那些认为拥有品牌就能够获得商业溢价，并且一劳永逸的想法经不起事实的推敲。     

消费者洞察与聚焦诉求的穿透力——从王老吉、脑白金的广告诉求看有效传播

如果我告诉一个女孩，吃苹果对身体有好处，她也许没什么感觉。但如果我说，吃苹果可以使皮肤更好、脸色更红润，她也许就会有点动心了；如果我告诉一位男士，多运动可强身健体，他也许会当作没听见，但如果我说，每天5分钟仰卧起坐，可以消除啤酒肚，他也许会去试一试；如果我告诉一个小孩子，喝牛奶有助于身体健康，他也许会当作耳旁风，但如果我说，每天一杯牛奶，可以长得更高，他也许就会行动起来了。     

小企业可以搭大公司的便车吗?

如果中小企业一直以大公司马首是瞻,以“搭便车”的方式合作,也许一时可以获得稳定的财源和技术转移,但它永远长不大！     

未来十年房企猜想

如果我们今天站在10年后的当口,那时的房地产企业该是一个什么样子呢？也许我们无法准确预测某一个房地产企业10年后的模样,但是我们至少可以大胆猜测一下未来的房地产企业需要具备的基本要素。     

在危机中寻找增长的行动

面对不确定性，也许很多人会无所适从，在经济危机来临的时候，也许很多人会认为增长是不可能的事情，一部分人打算冬眠，一部人打算放弃，很多企业开始把增长放在了次要考虑的层次，但是如果放弃或者停滞，接着下来的就只能是死亡。     

Is venture capital worth it? Effects on firm performance and founder returns

This paper extends research on venture capital (VC) finance by studying its effects on a venture's performance and on its founders' returns beyond an initial public offering (IPO). A “founder performance” construct, defined as a founder's financial and nonfinancial returns, is proposed and used to measure and compare returns to founders with returns to investors and firm performance. In general, venture characteristics pre-IPO and venture performance post-IPO were not significantly different when comparing ventures with and without VC backing. Only when VC backing is very high, do pre-IPO resources and funding improve significantly. However, higher levels of resource endowments did not seem to affect post-IPO performance for the venture or its investors. On the other hand, founders resorting to VC funding before taking their company public generated significantly less wealth for themselves and were less likely to remain as CEOs of their ventures after the IPO. Results suggest that founders motivated primarily by wealth creation and those motivated by remaining in control of their ventures should, in both instances, minimize VC backing when taking their ventures public. The finding that founder performance differs from venture and investor performance calls for future research to explore potential conflicts of interest that may arise from the double role of founders as principals and agents.     

A comparison of Japanese and U.S. firms completing initial public offerings

We set out to examine firms breaking into the top tier of for-profit companies in the U.S. and Japan to find differences across the two groups. To accomplish this, we conducted a questionnaire survey of companies that had recently undergone an initial public offering (IPO) in each country and compared them on characteristics frequently associated with new firms.As we expected, even when the different sizes of the two economies were taken into account, there were considerably fewer listings in Japan than in the U.S. One reason for this is that the listing requirements for young Japanese firms, although not stricter, are much more strictly enforced. Hence, fewer Japanese firms are able to list.Our results show that the Japanese firms were markedly different from their U.S. counterparts on several characteristics. They tended to be older and larger, which is consistent with more stringent listing requirements in Japan. They were also much more often led by their original founders. This is a surprising result given that the Japanese firms, being older, had longer to lose their founders. When a successor to the founder was president, it was much more often a relative of the founder than in the U.S. The Japanese founders rated themselves higher on relatively emotional characteristics, such as aggressiveness, paternalism, and charisma than did either the U.S. presidents or the Japanese nonfounder presidents.The Japanese firms relied solely on the president for decision-making prior to the IPO more often than the U.S. firms did. However, the Japanese firms also moved in greater numbers to group decision-making around the time of the IPO.The post-IPO investment strategies of the Japanese firms were characterized by a focus on new product development, an increase in R&D spending, and investment in the company's capital plant. In contrast, the U.S. firms reported more interest in exploiting their existing market and buying other companies, usually leaving R&D spending at its pre-IPO level.Overall, it is surprising that on many characteristics, the Japanese IPOs tended to fall more to the extreme associated with new companies than did the U.S. firms. They were dominated by founder influence, the founders were apparently highly emotional, their management style was initially autocratic, and their strategies targeted innovation and internal development as avenues to growth. This pattern is consistent with a prior hypothesis that the lack of structural support for new firms in Japan results in only the most extreme personalities pursuing and succeeding in company formation.For researchers, a significant implication of this research is that Japanese ventures may not behave according to the same rules as U.S. ventures. Research samples that fail to distinguish nationality may obscure cross-regional variations.For practitioners, the major lesson is that a Japanese venture is likely to be much different from one in the U.S. Dealing with one is probably even more unlike dealing with an established company than working with a U.S. start-up might be.     

Explaining the formation of international new ventures: The limits of theories from international business research

International new ventures (INVs) represent a growing and important type of start-up. An INV is defined as a business organization that, from inception, seeks to derive significant competitive advantage from the use of resources and the sale of outputs in multiple countries (Oviatt and McDougall 1994). Their increasing prevalence and important role in international competition indicates a need for greater understanding of these new ventures (Oviatt and McDougall 1994).Logitech, as described in a case study by Alahuhta (1990), is a vivid example of an INV. Its founders were from two different countries and had a global vision for the company from its inception. The venture, which produces peripheral devices for personal computers, established headquarters in both Switzerland and the U.S. Manufacturing and R&D were split between the U.S. and Switzerland, and then quickly spread to Taiwan and Ireland. The venture's first commercial contract was with a Japanese company.Using 24 case studies of INVs, we found that their formation process is not explained by existing theories from the field of international business. Specifically, neither monopolistic advantage theory, product cycle theory, stage theory of internationalization, oligopolistic reaction theory, nor internalization theory can explain the formation process of INVs. These theories fail because they assume that firms become international long after they have been formed, and they therefore highlight large, mature firms. They also focus too much on the firm level and largely ignore the individual and small group level of analysis (i.e., the entrepreneur and his or her network of business alliances).We propose that an explanation for the formation process of INVs must answer three questions: (1) who are the founders of INVs? (2) why do these entrepreneurs choose to compete internationally rather than just in their home countries? and (3) what form do their international business activities take?Who are the founders of INVs? We argue that founders of INVs are individuals who see opportunities from establishing ventures that operate across national borders. They are “alert” to the possibilities of combining resources from different national markets because of the competencies (networks, knowledge, and background) that they have developed from their earlier activities. Following the logic of the resource-based view of the firm, we argue that the possession of these competencies is not matched by other entrepreneurs. Only the entrepreneur possessing these competencies is able to combine a particular set of resources across national borders and form a given INV.Why do these entrepreneurs choose to compete internationally rather than just in their home countries? The founders of INVs recognize they must create international business competencies from the time of venture formation. Otherwise, the venture may become path-dependent on the development of domestic competencies and the entrepreneur will find it difficult to change strategic direction when international expansion eventually becomes necessary. As the founder of one INV explained, “The advantage of starting internationally is that you establish an international spirit from the very beginning” (Mamis 1989:38).What form do their international business activities take? Founders of INVs prefer to use hybrid structures (i.e., strategic alliances and networks) for their international activities as a way to overcome the usual poverty of resources at the time of start-up.This study has important implications for the practice of management. In financing decisions relating to INVs, venture capitalists and other venture financiers should look for entrepreneurs who have a global vision, international business competence, and an established international network. When entrepreneurs start INVs they should create hybrid structures to preserve scarce resources. Finally, given the path-dependence of competence development, founders of new ventures should consider whether establishing a domestic new venture with plans to later internationalize will be as successful a strategy as establishing a new venture that is international from inception.     

A Study on IPO of CITIC Securities Company

On January 6, 2003, CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. (CITICS hereafter) issued A-shares in the Shanghai Stock Exchange to become the first public listed securities company through IPO in China. CITICS’s net capital rose to about 5 billion yuan, much higher than any other competitor. This teaching case aims to demonstrate how a company gains first-mover advantage as being the first company to go public in an industry, how its competitors respond by changing their strategies after the IPO, and consequently, how a series of relevant events influence the competition. This case offers important implications for understanding the competitive dynamics of a securities company in China.     

New insights into venture capitalists' activity: IPO and time-to-exit forecast as antecedents of their post-investment involvement

We examine how VCFs' forecast of an IPO exit affects their breadth of advising and the likelihood of founder–CEO replacement shortly after they invest in a new venture. Moreover, we examine how the expected time-to-exit moderates these relationships. Our findings show that the likelihood of founder–CEO replacement upon receiving venture capital funding is significantly greater if a VCF perceives this company as a potential IPO as opposed to a trade sale, and this likelihood increases if the forecasted time-to-exit is short. We also illustrate how the breadth of advice varies as a function of the forecasted IPO and time-to-exit.     

Selling to Millennials with online reviews

Millennials have heavily influenced social media's evolution into an important source of product information. They are increasingly basing their product evaluations on information gathered from online reviews. Thus, companies targeting Millennials may wish to pay heed to online reviews. Which products are affected by Millennials’ online reviews? Do the reviews tend to be positive or negative? Where do Millennial customers look for information amongst the plethora of online venues? As presented herein, a survey of 227 Millennials reveals that this generation is undeniably posting reviews online and being influenced by these reviews. Respondents show a definite preference for two online venues, Facebook and company websites, when voicing their opinions. Reviews are broken down by positive and negative comments, and how product categories fare for each type. Contrary to popular thinking, the respondents were more prone to post positive reviews than negative reviews. Males voice their opinions online significantly more often than females, and specific gender differences are observed by product category. Recommendations are provided for selling to Millennials by leveraging online reviews.     

Oppositionists and group norms: The reciprocal influence of whistle-blowers and co-workers

Who blows the whistle — a “loner” or a well-liked “team player”? Which of them is more likely to lead a successful opposition to perceived organizational wrongdoing? The potential influence of co-worker pressures to conform on whistle-blowing activity or the likely effects of whistle-blowing on the group have not been addressed. This paper presents a preliminary model of whistle-blowing as an act of nonconformity. One implication is that the success of an opposition will depend on the characteristics of the whistle-blower and how the complaint is pursued. Specific hypotheses and general suggestions for future research and practice are offered.     

Navigating compromise: How founder authenticity affects venture identification amidst organizational hybridity

Founders of hybrid ventures encounter organizational tensions that can compel compromise in both their organizations' and their own personal values. Such compromises may, in turn, undermine founders' identification with their ventures. In a multi-case study analysis we examine why social entrepreneurs differ in their responses to organizational tensions, both at the firm- and individual-level, and how such differences relate to their venture identification. Specifically, our findings reveal that strategic decisions made in the context of values-based complexity are often accompanied by concerns regarding founder authenticity—that is, judgments about the alignment between founders' actions and the commitments or responsibilities associated with their identities as entrepreneurs. Yet, because founders differ in the basis from which they seek to maintain such alignment, these differences shape both hybridity management and subsequent venture identification. By unpacking such differences, our findings contribute new theory, bridging recent scholarship on founder authenticity with longstanding research on organizational identification and hybrid organizing.     

Early teams: The impact of team demography on VC financing and going public

This study investigates how top management team (TMT) demographic characteristics affect firm outcomes for young high technology firms in Silicon Valley. We study how team composition and turnover shape an entrepreneurial firm's ability to attract venture capital and its ability to successfully complete an initial public offering. We find that broad access to information by virtue of having top management team members that have worked for many different employers (diverse prior company affiliations) and have diverse prior experiences (functional diversity) tend to be associated with positive outcomes. In addition, entrants to and founder exits from the TMT increase the likelihood that a firm achieves an IPO. TMT exits, in turn, reduce the likelihood of achieving an IPO. Results also suggest that prior human capital experience is consistently associated with positive firm outcomes. These findings suggest that team experiences, composition and turnover are all important for bringing new insights to the firm and are associated with the likelihood that an entrepreneurial firm will succeed.