Regional analysis of the impact of inward foreign direct investment on economic growth in the Chinese electronic industry

This article empirically investigates the impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on regional economic growth in the Chinese electronic industry (CEI). Utilizing a provincial-level panel data spanning the period 1989 to 2009, we specify and estimate an endogenous economic growth model for the CEI. Empirical results indicate that, for the coastal region, FDI inflows have been growth enhancing, while in the central and western regions the impact of FDI on economic growth is mixed, depending on the channel of capital flow. Results also indicate that exports, human capital, science and technology investment and fixed asset investment are growth enhancing, while unemployment and foreign R&D investment are growth impeding in the CEI.     

Growth and export expansion in developing countries: Some empirical evidence

This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between economic growth and export expansion in developing countries as observed through an intercountry cross-section. Employing data from 55 middle income developing countries for the period 1960–1977, bivariate tests revealed significant positive associations between growth and various other economic variables including the growth of manufacturing output, investment, total exports, and manufacturing exports. A production function model was also specified and estimated with the cross-sectional data. The results indicated that export performance was important, along with capital formation, in explaining the intercountry variance in GDP growth rates during the 1960–1977 period.     

FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICITS, MONEY, AND EXCHANGE RATES

The dollar's strength during the 1980s appears to many—particularly as reported in the financial press—to have been directly linked to the decade's large budget deficits and the subsequent increase in the stock of federal debt outstanding. The popular argument is that the budget deficit and the growth of federal government credit market demand caused U.S. interest rates to rise over that period, inducing large capital inflows from abroad to finance the deficit. According to the argument, the capital inflows caused the dollar to appreciate. Despite the argument's popularity, the empirical literature does not strongly support it. Evidence on the relationship between the federal deficit and the dollar is at best mixed.
This article reconsiders the effects of federal budget deficits on the exchange rate. The analysis involves estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of exchange rates that includes monetary, fiscal, and price level variables. Within the VAR framework, impulse analysis traces the dynamic response of exchange rates to various budget deficit measures.
The analysis finds that deficits do not directly Granger cause exchange rates, but it also finds evidence of an indirect effect working through the money supply and price level. Moreover, the analysis reveals some evidence that foreign exchange markets are forward looking and react to expected budget deficits. The innovations accounting and impulse analysis also suggest a forward-looking dynamic relationship between deficits and exchange rates, but the relationship is sensitive to the ordering of the variables.     

Exports,investments and economic development of pre-accession countries of the European Union: an empirical investigation of Bulgaria and Romania

This paper attempts to analyse the relationship between exports, investments and economic development in two pre-accession countries of the European Union, Bulgaria and Romania. For investigation of this relationship a multivariate autoregressive VAR model is used. The results of cointegration analysis showed that there is one cointegrated vector among exports, investments and economic growth for the two countries. Granger causality tests based on error correction models (ECM) indicated that there is a ‘strong Granger causal’ relation between economic growth and exports as well as between investments and exports for the two countries. In addition, economic development and capital accumulation in an economy seem to have just as much of an influence on exports as exports have on capital accumulation and economic development.     

Exports,Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data

In this work we first model the role of demand‐ and supply‐side factors (labour market adjustment, productive efficiency) in explaining economic growth. Empirically testing the model, we evaluate why different growth regimes may appear in the 20 Italian administrative regions. This exercise uses a two‐stage econometric approach. Estimates for the elasticity of manufacturing output to exports are obtained from regional time series: a significant long‐run relationship indicates the existence of a demand‐constrained growth regime. We then ascertain whether the regional dispersion of supply‐side factors has an impact on the regional dispersion of growth regimes. The empirical evidence supports our expectations of strong regional differences. Southern regions are less likely to display demand‐constrained regimes. In explanation of these differences, second‐stage analysis reveals that a strong role is played by such efficiency‐enhancing factors as technological innovation, bank diffusion and ‘social capital’. No role is found for labour market rigidities.     

Trade liberalization and industrial growth in Pakistan: a cointegration analysis

Using the framework of an endogenous growth model, this study empirically analyses the relationship between trade policies and industrial growth in Pakistan during the period 1973–1995. The cointegration and error correction modelling approaches have been applied. The empirical results suggest that there exists a unique long-run relationship among the aggregate growth function of industrial value added and its major determinants of the real capital stock, the labour force, real exports, the import tariff collection rate and the secondary school enrolment ratio. The short-term dynamic behaviour of Pakistan's growth function of industrial value added has been investigated by estimating an error correction model in which the error correction term has been found to be correctly signed and statistically significant.     

On the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Constraints to the Real Side of the Economy

Contrary to the predictions of the theory underlying international finance, inflows of capital triggered by financial liberalisation have neither equalised real interest rates nor increased income growth in many emerging economies. We explain this puzzle by developing a model that combines the balance‐of‐payments constraint approach to economic growth with a less stringent version of the real interest rate parity hypothesis. The model’s foundations are based on robust empirical findings or well‐established macroeconomic models. We show that a perverse combination of income elasticities of demand for imports and exports generates slow income growth and high real interest rates. As domestic income grows and imports rise faster than exports, the real exchange rate is expected to depreciate in order to clear the balance of payments (or the foreign exchange rate market). An incipient capital outflow arises and interest rates increase. Faster adjustment in capital rather than in the goods market therefore generates a higher real interest rate differential between the domestic small open‐economy and the rest of the world. The long run analysis shows that a constant degree of risk aversion implies a positive equilibrium real interest rate differential that affects economic growth. A permanent increase in default risk driven by persistent current account imbalances thus impacts on long run growth. The model’s results are illustrated with evidence from the three major Latin America economies: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.     

Externalities of investment and endogenous growth: theory and time series evidence

In the paper we present and estimate an endogenous growth model in which sustained per capita growth is the result of positive externalities of investment in physical capital. In contrast to the usual assumption that investment raises physical capital and, as a byproduct, a stock of knowledge one for one, we suppose a different framework. So, we treat physical and human capital as two distinct variables and underline the importance of the stock of knowledge per physical capital as to the growth performance of countries. Estimation of that model for France, Germany and Japan shows that it is compatible with empirical data. For Great Britain the model performs poor and for the USA it does not produce reasonable outcomes at all. One conclusion we draw from our studies is that an endogenous growth model with positive externalities of investment is of empirical relevance. However, the growth process is also determined by country specific factors such that cross-countries studies should be considered with some care.     

EXPORTS,EXPORT COMPOSITION AND GROWTH: A SIMULTANEOUS ERROR-CORRECTION MODEL FOR TUNISIA

The export-economic growth relationship has been dealt with in several empirical studies concerning cross-section and time series data. Although this research has contributed to measure the impact of exports on economic growth, it still has three main drawbacks. First, the studies on cross-section data suppose homogeneous production techniques for the countries involved. Second, most of the research introduces a bias in the estimation of the export impact on economic growth since it neglects all effects of simultaneity between these two variables. Finally, most of the estimated regressions in these studies may constitute ‘spurious‘ regressions since the analysis of the stationarity of the variables is missing. This paper considers the Tunisian case and tries to study the dynamics between growth and exports through a simultaneous error correction model. The study shows the presence of a positive and significant relationship between exports and economic growth driven by manufactured exports rather than food-processing exports and international tourism. The measurement of such a relationship is understated if the simultaneity between export expansion and G.D.P growth is ignored. [C 32, C 51, C 52, F 43]     

Microeconomic analysis on the growth of trade volume in China: 1978–2007

The gravity equation is usually employed by researchers in the field of international trade to explain the growth of a country’s imports and exports volume, especially the manufactured goods. But in China, variables in the model, such as exchange rate, tariff, transportation cost, and spatial distance etc., are not sufficient to explain the riddle of China’s growth in trade volume. In fact, this growth in China’s trade volume is owing to the disintegration of production in the process of economic globalization, to the multinational corporations’ (MNC) vertical outsourcing of their manufacturing processes and procedures, and to the timely readjustment of Chinese enterprises on their strategies of participating in the international intra-product specialization. In this paper we establish an equilibrium model of intra-product specialization dominated by MNCs, and do some empirical tests on the growth in trade volume in China by using the variables including technological conditions of trade, similarity of economies, policy conditions of trade, disintegration of production and level of per capita capital equipment. The empirical results support our basic judgments.     

Cross-border acquisitions: the UK experience

This paper tests a composite empirical model of cross-border acquisitions involving UK firms between 1987–1995 using panel data analysis. The empirical model includes capital market variables and regulatory variables derived from the existing literature. The results show that models that explain cross-border acquisitions through capital market imperfections are not significant. Cross-border activity has a strong relationship with the level of the UK stock market suggesting that crossborder acquisitions are, in some part, an extension of domestic activity. Corporate tax differentials also have significant impact on activity.     

Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to examine the export-led and manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis for four South Asian Countries; namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, using Pedroni’s panel cointegration technique for the period 1980–2002. In this context we estimate growth accounting equations to investigate the impact of exports, manufacturing exports and other important physical and human capital variables on both total GDP and non-export GDP. The study finds long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP (and non-export GDP) and exports along with other variables supporting export-led growth hypothesis. The results also substantiate the existence of manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis. Further, we find that export, fixed capital formation, public expenditure on health and education have statistically significant coefficients re-emphasizing the importance of these variables for higher economic growth.     

Exports of primary goods and human capital accumulation

Many developing countries have experienced export‐led growth in the last half century. This paper asks whether the content of what economies export matters for human capital accumulation. We construct a small open economy model and find that expansion of primary exports can harm human capital accumulation if the economy is initially allocating significant resources to the production of primary goods. We then test this prediction empirically using Latin American data over the period 1965 to 2010 and find robust evidence in support of the hypothesis that a shift towards primary exports reduces human capital accumulation. Given the importance of the latter for long‐run growth, our results suggest a potential role for policy intervention.     

经济增长中三大需求作用的实证分析——以天津为例

文章利用天津1980～2007年的年度统计数据,对推进天津经济增长的消费、投资和出口的作用进行了实证研究。从长期来看,天津消费、投资、出口与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系;从短期来看,消费对同期的天津经济增长具有促进作用,投资和出口带动了后一期的经济增长。消费在促进经济增长中发挥了主要的作用,其次是投资和出口贸易。最后,根据实证结论,提出了利用消费、投资、出口协调发展,促进天津经济持续稳定增长的政策建议。     

Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis

This paper studies the relation between inflation and economic development. The literature is largely silent regarding both the theoretical and empirical perspectives that undeveloped countries endure higher average inflation than developed economies. We present a simple theoretical model linking the inflation phenomenon to the tradition of development economics. Empirical evidence is garnered to test the hypothesis that economic development engenders a downward bias to inflation rates. Through the feasible-GLS estimator in a panel of 65 countries from 2001 to 2011, we aim at listing a number of variables most commonly used to explain differences in the stage of economic development across countries and identifying the most statistically relevant ones to account for differences in inflationary patterns. While our results show that inflation is inversely correlated with the level of the technological content of the economy (measured by share of high-tech exports), human capital and cyclical unemployment, it is directly related to the degree of inflation persistence and terms of trade growth. However, our findings still present an inverse and low correlation between inflation persistence and economic development, implying that development-sensitive variables allowed into the model can only partially account for the differences in inflation at different levels of economic development.     

基于人力资本视角的中国服务贸易比较优势分析

随着全球产业结构的升级和国际贸易的发展,服务贸易成为了各国竞争的焦点。研究服务贸易比较优势的形成和转换成为了当务之急。本文从服务贸易总量、国际市场占有率、服务贸易结构三个方面对我国服务贸易的比较优势进行了测度,结果表明我国服务贸易总量增长迅速,远超于世界平均水平,但是总体竞争力低,结构不平衡。运用1982—2006年的数据,以柯布·道格拉斯生产函数为基础,构建服务贸易比较优势影响因素的多要素模型进行实证分析,回归结果显示,物质资本、劳动力、人力资本和FDI对服务贸易出口显著正相关。其中,劳动力的产出弹性最大,人力资本的产出弹性次之,说明我国服务贸易的比较优势主要来源于劳动力,人力资本的促进作用较小,从加大教育投入、增强技术创新、吸引外国投资方面提出促进我国服务贸易比较优势转换的建议。     

Concessionary export subsidies and the US Export-Import Bank

Certainly, the US Congress walks on a tightrope when it schedules the Export-Import Bank (Exim) financing. Once a tranquil organization, Exim has recently been criticized for its performance in providing concessionary financing to US firms in order to promote exports. The absence of empirical research on the relationship between export financing by Exim and growth in US exports is striking. Numerous specifications, currently, assess that Exim authorizations for loans, guarantees, and insurance, do not affect US exports and are redundant. The use of relevant variables in the regression analysis is proper and consistent. The tests are based on data from the US and 22 OECD countries, 1950–86.     

The trade balance and the terms of trade in a two-country two-sector OLG economy

We consider a two-country, two-sector OLG model. It is shown that the trade balance and the relative price of exports are always positively related when exports are labor intensive regardless of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption. A large response of savings to future prices becomes a sufficient condition for an inverse relation between these variables only if exports are capital intensive. In this case, a rise in the terms of trade can be followed by a trade balance decline if consumption goods are capital intensive and the income effect implied on savings is negative and large.     

中国省区TFP测算及影响因素分析

本文依据1998 -2007年中国28个省区的相关数据,采用修正索洛模型和随机前沿模型测算了中国省区历年的全要素生产率水平和增长率,并利用静态和动态面板数据模型检验了R&D、人力资本、进口、出口以及外商直接投资对我国省区全要素生产率的影响.结果显示,我国省区全要素生产率水平总体呈上升趋势,而增长率则趋于下降,并且地区差距明显.地区间R&D、出口、人力资本对我国省区全要素生产率水平的提高具有显著的正向作用,而外商直接投资和进口的正向作用并不明显;出口对中国省区全要素生产率增长率的提高有明显促进作用,而进口则对其具有明显的阻碍作用,R&D、人力资本及外商直接投资对全要素生产率增长率的提高虽有促进作用,但它们在静态和动态面板数据模型中的显著性则有所差异;另外,研究还发现,中国省区全要素生产率具有显著的“滞后效应”.     

Economic Growth,Public Debt and Welfare: Comparing Three Budgetary Rules

Abstract. We present an endogenous growth model with externalities of capital and elastic labor supply where we allow for public debt and welfare‐enhancing public spending. We analyze different debt policies as regards convergence to a balanced growth path and their effects on long‐run growth and welfare. Three budgetary rules are considered: the balanced budget rule, a budgetary rule where debt grows in the long run but at a rate lower than the balanced growth rate and a rule where public debt grows at the same rate as all other economic variables but where it guarantees that the intertemporal budget constraint is fulfilled.