我国金融上市公司投资效率的实证研究

本文基于2007—2013年我国金融上市公司的面板数据,借助DEA-Malmquist指数方法,对我国金融上市公司的投资效率进行分析。结果显示,我国金融行业整体投资效率呈下降趋势,投资效率的下降主要在于技术的退步;金融行业的技术效率稳中有升,主要来自金融行业规模效率的提升;银行整体投资效率高于证券保险业,证券业与保险业之间差距较小。因此,我国金融上市公司的投资效率应从金融工具创新、规模效应以及政策扶持三个方面进行提升。     

The impact of portfolio diversification on mean reverting components of stock indices

Positive autocorrelations are introduced into stock index portfolios when they are formed from individual stock indices while negative autocorrelations are induced in returns by increasing the investment horizon. Using monthly data of six international stock indices, this paper examines the diversification effect with different investment horizons on autocorrelations of stock index portfolios. The results show that portfolio diversification does not alter the impact of the investment horizon on autocorrelations. Different investment horizons, however, have great impact on the diversification effect on autocorrelations. With short (long) horizons, the average autocorrelation coefficient increases (decreases) with an increase in the portfolio size, suggesting that mean-reverting component dominates the delayed adjustment effect in long horizons and vice versa in short horizons. Our results are robust across two 10-year sub-periods.The author would like to thank an anonymous referee of this Journal for the comments on an earlier version of this paper and the Research Committee of Hong Kong Baptist University for the financial support in this research.     

Mean reversion of short-run interest rates: empirical evidence from new EU countries

This article deals with the analysis of the mean reversion property of short-term interest rates in Central and Eastern European countries, using daily data from January 2000 to December 2008. For this purpose, we use long memory (fractionally integrated) models, and employ non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric techniques to check if our results are robust across different methods. The results indicate that the mean reversion only takes place in the case of Hungary. For the remaining countries, the short-term interest rates are clearly non-stationary and non-mean reverting. Allowing for one break in the data, the break date takes place about 2001/2003 in all the series except in Lithuania, where the break occurs in 2007. In general, we observe an increase in the degree of dependence after the break in the majority of the series.     

Integration of International Long-Term Interest Rates: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis

In this study, we re-examine the relationship among interest rates on the long-term government bonds of five industrialized countries. Using both the variance ratio test and fractional cointegration analysis, we find significant evidence that indicates the five government bond rates are fractionally cointegrated. In specific, our results show that the error correction term of the system of the five interest rates follows a mean-reverting, fractionally integrated process.     

Sticky cost behaviour: evidence from small and medium sized companies

This paper investigates whether cost stickiness occurs in small and medium sized companies using a sample of Italian nonlisted and listed firms during the period 1999–2008. Our findings show that cost stickiness emerges only for the total cost of labour and not for selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs, cost of goods sold and operating costs. Stickiness of operating costs is only detected in a sample of listed companies. We further contribute to the literature on sticky cost behaviour by discussing critical issues associated with the extant approach of empirical analysis and interpretation of sticky cost behaviour.     

Determinants of voluntary audit and voluntary full accounts in micro- and non-micro small companies in the UK

This study investigates the link between the auditing and filing choices made by a sample of 592 small private companies, which includes 419 micro-companies. It examines decisions made in connection with the 2006 accounts following UK's adoption of the maximum EU size thresholds in 2004, and the impact of the proposed Directive on the annual accounts of micro-companies. The research extends the model of cost, management and agency factors associated with voluntary audit, and develops a complementary model for voluntary full accounts. The results show the benefits of placing full audited accounts on public record that outweigh the costs for a significant proportion of companies. In non-micro small companies, voluntary audit is determined by cost and agency factors, whereas in micro-companies it is driven by cost, management and agency factors. In both groups, the predictors of voluntary full accounts include management and agency factors, and choosing voluntary audit is one of the key factors. The study provides models that can be tested in other jurisdictions to provide evidence of the needs of micro-companies, and the discussion of the methodological challenges for small company researchers in the UK makes further contribution to the literature.     

Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor

This paper solves numerically the intertemporalconsumption and portfolio choiceproblem of an infinitely-lived investor whofaces a time-varying equity premium.The solutions we obtain are very similarto the approximate analytical solutionsof Campbell and Viceira (1999), except atthe upper extreme of the state spacewhere both the numerical consumption andportfolio rules flatten out.We also consider a constrained version ofthe problem in which the investor facesborrowing and short-sales restrictions.These constraints bind when the equitypremium moves away from its mean in eitherdirection, and are particularly severe forrisk-tolerant investors. The constraints havesubstantial effects on optimalconsumption, but much more modest effects onoptimal portfolio choice in theregion of the state space where they are notbinding.     

On the robustness of short–term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.     

Financial Rating of European Technology Companies: An International Comparison

The purpose of this study is to investigate possibilities to uniform financial rating of technology companies in Europe from the perspective of a potential investor. The data consist of financial statements of 6,370 companies from seventeen European countries and the US in 1993–1996. The data from 1994–1996 are used to measure three–year success and the data from 1993 to predict this success. Success is measured by the principal factor of six performance measures. Country risk, percentage change in GDB, size, and eight financial ratios calculated for 1993 are used as predictors of success in the binary logistic analysis.     

Mean Reversion in the Short Horizon Returns of UK Portfolios

This paper will show that short horizon stock returns for UK portfolios are more predictable than suggested by sample autocorrelation co-efficients. Four capitalisation based portfolios are constructed for the period 1976–1991. It is shown that the first order autocorrelation coefficient of monthly returns can explain no more than 10% of the variation in monthly portfolio returns. Monthly autocorrelation coefficients assume that each weekly return of the previous month contains the same amount of information. However, this will not be the case if short horizon returns contain predictable components which dissipate rapidly. In this case, the return of the most recent week would say a lot more about the future monthly portfolio return than other weeks. This suggests that when predicting future monthly portfolio returns more weight should be given to the most recent weeks of the previous month, because, the most recent weekly returns provide the most information about the subsequent months' performance. We construct a model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthly portfolio returns. Using this model we forecast future monthly portfolio returns. When compared to forecasts that utilise the autocorrelation statistic the model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthlyportfolio returns can forecast future returns better than the autocorrelation statistic, both in and out of sample.     

上市公司财务参数与其股价波动性关系探究

本文探究了上市公司年度股价波动性与其上一年公开财务指标的相关关系。公开财务指标主要包括六项,从不同维度反映了公司规模、资本结构、偿债能力、盈利状况、管理状况和股东情况。通过分析结果发现,若干财务指标与上市公司的股价波动性都有显著的相关关系,大部分符合预期及常识。有一些财务指标与上市公司的股价波动性长时期内表现出稳定、显著的关系。文中尝试探讨了造成这种相关性的因素。     

上市公司固定资产投资规模影响因素

固定资产投资对宏观经济增长和微观企业发展意义重大.文章通过对经典投资理论和实证研究成果回顾,找到并通过我国国有上市公司样本数据实证检验这些因素.结论显示经典投资理论对我国上市公司投资规模确定具有适用性,我国上市公司投资规模取决于投资机会、内部现金流和负债程度,国有上市公司整体表现为投资过度.     

The impact of internet stock message boards on cross-sectional returns of small-capitalization stocks

We examine the impact of more than 2.5 million HotCopper messages on the Australian stock market. HotCopper is the largest online stock message board in Australia and the sample of messages covers over 2000 companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) from January 2003 through December 2008. We exclude messages surrounding public price-sensitive announcements released centrally by the ASX in order to examine the private information content of internet board messages. We find that the number of board messages and message sentiment significantly and positively relate to the contemporaneous returns of underperforming (low ROE, EBIT margin, EPS) small capitalization stocks with high market growth potential (low book-to-market). Posting activity is positively associated with trading volume for small stocks and negatively associated with bid-ask spreads for small and large stocks in the short term. Bullish small stocks outperform bearish ones significantly in respective days and months, exhibiting no return reversals to pre-message board activity levels in subsequent time periods. Large stocks are not found to be affected by message board activity. We conclude that higher message board activity quickly reflects itself into the prices of small capitalization stocks in a highly regulated market like the ASX.     

Management accounting change in small technology companies: towards a mathematical model of the technology firm

The primary purpose of this paper is to explain management accounting (MA) change in 93 small Finnish technology firms in terms of their organizational characteristics and motivation patterns. Factor analysis identifies four motivation patterns among the companies. Hence four types of companies emerge called ‘change-oriented’, ‘stable and conservative’, ‘performance-contented’ and ‘discontent resourceless’ organizations. A mathematical model of the technology firm as an adaptive organism with a certain probability to survive, is constructed to obtain expectations for the differences in MA change between the identified types. The model shows that the MA systems (MASs), which help management in large organizations to identify directions for future action (for example, short-term budgeting) may be ineffective in small technology companies. The probability of the company’s survival is sensitive to the intensity of competition and cost efficiency. In an environment where an identified, innovative project cannot be undertaken with certainty, the length of the strategic planning period has a limited optimum level. Moreover, the four types of companies examined have significantly different motivation levels to change their MASs. The change-oriented company must improve its MASs remarkably to compensate for the large negative effect, especially, of high competition, whereas the stable and conservative company has little or no pressure for improvements in its MASs. The performance-contented company has no real motivation to change its MASs because there is no competition. But the discontent resourceless company, which functions in an atmosphere of high competition with shorter customer relationships, is compelled by its environment to adapt its MASs although it has, otherwise, low motivation for change and is acutely resource constrained. These expectations were supported by correlation and regression analyses applied to explore the relationship of the four types to MA change.     

创业投资IPO偏低定价与退出绩效实证研究

本文以1993～2006年在香港主板和创业板上市的133家H股公司为研究对象，对其偏低定价和短长期绩效情况进行了实证分析。研究表明，创业投资支持的公司的IPO偏低定价程度低于非创业投资支持的公司。创业投资支持的公司在香港主板市场的IPO偏低定价程度、长短期绩效均低于香港创业板市场，且在香港主板上市后的长期绩效呈不断下降趋势。在香港主板市场上，退出绩效与IPO偏低定价显著负相关。对创业投资支持的公司来说，在热发行期退出将获得更好的绩效。     

基于全球价值链视角的企业对外投资模式分析——以北京为例

基于全球价值链视角对北京的100强企业处于全球价值链阶段和运用全球价值链动力机制对外投资进行分析,结果表明:北京对外投资发展缓慢,呈现出以绿地投资为主、香港为主要投资地区、投资行业多元化且对外合作发展迅速的特征,大部分的北京企业对外投资处于全球价值链的低端,且以生产者驱动型的全球价值链为主,由此,提出全球价值链下北京企业对外投资可选择的5种模式。     

Professional accountants and the development of a management accounting service for the small firm: barriers and possibilities

This paper reports the results of a qualitative study examining the potential for the provision of a management accounting service for smaller companies by accountants in professional practice. The study aimed to determine the management information needs of owner-managers, the type and frequency of information preferred and the capacity of professional accountants to contribute to these needs. The owner-managers of 15 smaller companies were asked to participate in semi-strucutured interviews during which their use of computers to provide management accounts, their relationship with their accountant and their financial skills were discussed. The respondents were presented with a range of management information including statutory final accounts, interim accounts, cash statements, ratios and graphical comparisons of monthly turnover figures in order to assess their financial information skills and needs. The study found that companies used computers for the preparation of management accounting information, but usually not to their full potential. The financial awareness of owner-managers varied considerably. There was a favourable response to the presentation of ratios and graphs, however, it was felt that an explanation or interpretation of financial information by their accountant would be a useful addition to improve their understanding and therefore aid their business. The study concludes that there appears to be significant potential for accountants to expand the management accounting services they provide to smaller companies, especially where information is presented as ratios or graphs and accompanied with an appropriate narrative interpretation. This would also increase the financial skills of their clients and result in an increased demand for management accounting services.     

吉林省上市公司特征分析与财务业绩评价

在分析吉林省上市公司的行业特征、规模特征以及资本结构特征的基础上,对吉林省上市公司的财务业绩进行综合评价,并从盈利能力状况、资产质量状况、偿债能力状况和发展能力状况四个方面对一汽轿车股份有限公司进行深入分析。旨在为利益相关人全面、客观地了解企业的财务状况、经营成果等情况提供依据,进而做出科学决策。     

Impact of the global financial crisis on Islamic and conventional stocks and bonds

This study explores the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) on Islamic and conventional stock and bond indices in 11 Islamic and eight non‐Islamic countries. We find that there are benefits of Islamic stocks during the GFC, particularly during the early stage of the crisis because Islamic institutions are prohibited from holding sub‐prime mortgage securities and derivatives. The strongest benefits of Islamic stocks are in the UK and USA. We conclude that there are benefits of risk reduction and stability for Islamic stocks during a financial crisis, although not necessarily during a global recession.     

不同发展阶段的中小企业财务战略选择

目前,我国中小企业的财务战略管理意识薄弱。中小企业要想在全球化的经济竞争中立于不败之地,其财务管理不仅要有科学的日常管理,更要有高瞻远瞩的战略管理。中小企业生命周期可划分为初创期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期。中小企业应根据各阶段的特点采取不同的财务战略。