重塑布雷顿森林体系

2008年这场百年一遇的金融危机爆发以来,人们很自然地重新审视国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行的作用.不断有人发问:这两个组织到底是干什么的?     

布雷顿森林体系的不对称性及其启示

本文深入分析了布雷顿森林体系在诸如各国经济实力、流动性提供机制、国际收支调节机制、黄金与美元职能、美元增长机制与其效应传导等方面存在的不对称性。分析表明,正是这些不对称性推动着布雷顿森林体系经历了从建立、发展、稳定到动荡、崩溃的短暂过程。该结论的现实意义在于,它从历史的角度再次证明:在信用本位货币制度下,国际汇率制度逐渐趋于浮动有其历史必然性、人民币转向真正意义上的管理浮动或许正是这一趋势的诠释、加强东亚货币合作有利于国际货币体系朝着更加稳定、有序、合理的方向演进。     

新布雷顿森林体系中的美元、欧元和人民币

“新金本位制”和“新布雷顿森林体系”所谓“新金本位制”的构想,即全球所有国家同时加入金本位制国家联盟,一致确定或同时变更其货币相对于黄金的稳定关系。据说这样既可以保留目前全球化可能带来的全球福利,又可以克服资本积累和世界经济的虚拟化。持有该观点的经济学家有的来自发展中国家,也有发达国家的左派经济学家。美国的哈罗德就列     

布雷顿森林体系Ⅱ：博弈均衡与中国的困境

如果把人民币汇率问题纳入“新布雷顿森林体系”的分析框架,通过分析“新布雷顿森林体系”的运行机制和其中的各方博弈,所能够得出的短期均衡结果是,美国继续进口亚洲商品,亚洲国家对美融资以保持美国国内旺盛的消费需求。但从长期来看,新布雷顿森林体系由于自身存在的制度性缺陷,最终会导致亚洲国家组建的对美融资“卡特尔”走向分裂。中国在这个卡塔尔与其破裂的预期中,面临三重困境需要突破。     

论国际金融体系改革与布雷顿森林机构重塑

论文在回顾了国际金融体系改革主要历程的基础上探讨了现存体系的核心缺陷,并对已经进入改革日程的一些议题上存在的分歧意见进行了分析。论文认为,由于发达国家和发展中国家存在着巨大的利益差异,短期内在核心内容的改革上将难以取得突破,但是在已经提上议事日程的改革领域,将有可能取得进展。20国集团对国际金融体系改革的推动是令人鼓舞的信息,中国将为推动改革做出越来越多的贡献。     

新布雷顿森林体系框架下美国金融危机根源探究

关于次贷危机的成因,尽管有许多种解释,但本文认为,其根源也往往隐藏在实体经济中.有鉴于此,本文从宏观政策及实体经济层面出发,在新布雷顿森林体系框架下,深入探讨本轮金融危机触发及放大机制的根源.     

Post Bretton Woods deviations from purchasing power parity in G7 exchange rates—an empirical exploration

Exchange rates have deviated substantially and idiosyncratically from purchasing power parity (PPP) since the breakdown of Bretton Woods. In this paper, a model incorporating both traditional PPP and financial market variables is constructed and tested on the US dollar's six G7 exchange rates during the floating rate era. Empirical tests show that the model's common set of variables—with consistent signs—can explain the divergent behavior of G7 exchange rates during 1973.2–90.2. Idiosyncracies are reflected in different subsets of the model's variables entering significantly into each exchange rate's regression; the existence of stable relationships is demonstrated by the equations' co-integration.     

Die Öffnung der Versicherungsmärkte bei OECD,EU und WTO — Mühsamer Abschied vom Finanzmarktprotektionismus der Bretton Woods Periode

The liberalization of international insurance trade has been pursued since 1948 by the OEEC, the EEC, the GATT and its successor organizations the OECD, the EU and the WTO. Modern multilateral trade policy was however not as successful for international insurance trade as it was for international merchandise trade. Significant progress was not made until the 1990s with the EU’s Single Market program. Likewise, negotiations currently being conducted by the WTO on the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) have so far not led to any noticeable progress in the international insurance markets. Furthermore, the GATS framework agreement shows weaknesses that are characteristic of the liberalisation efforts of the immediate post-war years.     

Rethinking moral futures

In the context of a wider discussion on ‘integral futures’ this paper reconsiders the openly integrative tendency of some moral-hermeneutic agendas. In relating a story that includes a personal failure to bring about ‘integrality’ despite having the best of intentions, a third space is opened as a way to rethink moral futures.     

关于宏观经济政策的若干反思

大稳健时期让宏观经济学家和政府决策者误以为大家已熟练掌握了宏观经济政策运用,本次危机显然对此观点提出了挑战。为此,国际货币基金组织（IMF）专家对危机前的宏观经济政策进行了重视审视,分析了主要共识,指出其中存在的失误,以及哪些危机前的框架原则当前仍能适用,并尝试建立新的宏观经济政策框架。建议应该对通货膨胀目标进行重视审视,协调运用货币政策和监管政策,统一通货膨胀目标制与汇率政策,更广泛地提供流动性,注意积蓄财政政策空间,设计更好的财政自动稳定机制。     

银行监管的重新思考

最新研究清楚地表明,银行业的兴衰关系全社会各界人士的福利.特别是当银行倒闭的时候,的确,80年代至90年代的发展中国家银行危机所带来的财政损失     

Rethinking futures studies

The author traces the development of futures studies from the Second World war and considers its philosophical basis. Futures thinking is seen as vision; futurists have special responsibilities as they are part of the world they describe. Futures thinking is seen as a learning process.     

Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

The great moderation lulled macroeconomists and policymakers alike in the belief that we knew how to conduct macroeconomic policy. The crisis clearly forces us to question that assessment. In this paper, we review the main elements of the precrisis consensus, identify where we were wrong and what tenets of the precrisis framework still hold, and take a tentative first pass at the contours of a new macroeconomic policy framework.     

并购风险思量

并购有风险,投资需谨慎。无论是前期寻找目标、筹措资本,中期并购运营,亦或后期的整合管理,期间的不确定因素往往给并购带来巨大风险。对此,CFO应如何防范与内炼?财务风险是企业重大资产重组风险的综合反映。企业重大资产重     

Rethinking political correctness

Legal and cultural changes over the past 40 years ushered unprecedented numbers of women and people of color into companies' professional ranks. Laws now protect these traditionally underrepresented groups from blatant forms of discrimination in hiring and promotion. Meanwhile, political correctness has reset the standards for civility and respect in people's day-to-day interactions. Despite this obvious progress, the authors' research has shown that political correctness is a double-edged sword. While it has helped many employees feel unlimited by their race, gender, or religion,the PC rule book can hinder people's ability to develop effective relationships across race, gender, and religious lines. Companies need to equip workers with skills--not rules--for building these relationships. The authors offer the following five principles for healthy resolution of the tensions that commonly arise over difference: Pause to short-circuit the emotion and reflect; connect with others, affirming the importance of relationships; question yourself to identify blind spots and discover what makes you defensive; get genuine support that helps you gain a broader perspective; and shift your mind-set from one that says, "You need to change," to one that asks, "What can I change?" When people treat their cultural differences--and related conflicts and tensions--as opportunities to gain a more accurate view of themselves, one another, and the situation, trust builds and relationships become stronger. Leaders should put aside the PC rule book and instead model and encourage risk taking in the service of building the organization's relational capacity. The benefits will reverberate through every dimension of the company's work.