Forecasting the returns on UK investment trusts: a comparison

The well known fact that investment trusts (closed-end mutual funds in the USA) trade at a discount means that the return to an investor depends not only on the change in net asset value (NAV), but also on changes in the discount over the holding period. Using daily data, this paper models the relationship between UK investment trust prices and NAV's using cointegration methodology then shows that the forecasts based on the, error correction mechanism (ECM) compare poorly with those from vector autoregressions. And then incorporates a number of modifications to the ECM in an attempt to improve the forecasts. In particular, modelling volatility persistance and allow for asymmetric resonses in the ECM.     

Cash flow,investment, and investment opportunities: New tests using UK panel data

The interpretation of the correlation between cash flow and investment is controversial. Some argue that it is caused by financial constraints, others by the correlation between cash flow and investment opportunities that are not properly measured by Tobin’s Q. This paper uses UK firms’ contracted capital expenditure to capture information about opportunities available only to insiders and thus not included in Q. When this variable is added to investment regressions, the explanatory power of cash flow falls for large firms, but remains unchanged for small firms. This suggests that the significance of cash flow stems from its role in capturing the effects of credit frictions.     

走出模型依赖困境

编者按:正如切尔诺贝利核电站泄漏事故提醒世人核电站存在风险一样,1998年美国长期资本管理公司因巨额亏损被接管事件提醒人们风险管理模型(以下简称模型)也存在风险,这次的次贷危机则进一步提醒人们注意这一点.     

Selectivity and timing performance of UK investment trusts

This study examines the selectivity and timing performance of 218 UK investment trusts over the period July 1981 to June 2009. We estimate the Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson and Merton (1981) models augmented with the size, value, and momentum factors, either under the OLS method adjusted with the Newey–West procedure or under the GARCH(1,1)-in-mean method following the specification of Glosten et al. (1993; hereafter GJR-GARCH-M). We find that the OLS method provides little evidence in favour of the selectivity and timing ability, consistent with previous studies. Interestingly, the GJR-GARCH-M method reverses this result, showing some relatively strong evidence on favourable selectivity ability, particularly for international funds, as well as favourable timing ability, particularly for domestic funds. We conclude that the GJR-GARCH-M method performs better in evaluating fund performance compared with the OLS method and the non-parametric approach, as it essentially accounts for the time-varying characteristics of factor loadings and hence obtains more reliable results, in particular, when the high frequency data, such as the daily returns, are used in the analysis. Our results are robust to various in-sample and out-of-sample tests and have valuable implications for practitioners in making their asset allocation decisions across different fund styles.     

Risk tolerance and entrepreneurship

A theoretical tradition argues that more risk tolerant individuals are more likely to become entrepreneurs but perform worse. We test and confirm these predictions with several risk tolerance proxies. Using investment data for 400,000 individuals, we find that common stock investors are around 50% more likely to subsequently start up a firm. Firms started up by common stock investors have about 25% lower sales and 15% lower return on assets. The results are similar using personal leverage and other risk-tolerance proxies. We do not find support for alternative explanations such as unobserved wealth or behavioral effects.     

如何识别和防范BOT项目投资风险

对基础设施、特别是经营性基础设施的融资市场化,是我国投融资改革的方向。作为项目融资的方式之一,BOT越来越广泛地得到应用,并从最初只适用于外商投资项目,到适用于包括民营资本投资在内的各种基础设施项目。但由于基础设施的特点和BOT方式的复杂性,投资者存在较大的风险。如何识别、控制这些风险,以获得项目的成功,对BOT项目的投资者来说至关重要。本文从项目投资者的角度分析了B0T项目可能存在的主要风险及应采取的防范措施。     

On the investment value of sell-side analyst recommendation revisions in the UK

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study conducts a comprehensive investigation into the investment value of sell-side analyst recommendation revisions in the UK, using a unique...     

The Inverted-U hypothesis for the effect of uncertainty on investment: Evidence from UK firms

Abstract

This paper offers the first attempt to test the inverted-U hypothesis for the effect of uncertainty on investment, implied by a number of recent theoretical studies, using a panel of UK firms. It is found that the effect of uncertainty on corporate investment is indeed approximated by an inverted-U shaped relationship: at low levels of uncertainty the effect is positive, but it becomes negative at high levels of uncertainty. This result represents the first empirical verification of the hypothesis with respect to UK firms.     

Social Risk Management: A New Conceptual Framework for Social Protection, and Beyond

This paper proposes a new definition and conceptual framework for Social Protection grounded in Social Risk Management. The concept repositions the traditional areas of Social Protection (labor market intervention, social insurance and social safety nets) in a framework that includes three strategies to deal with risk (prevention, mitigation and coping), three levels of formality of risk management (informal, market-based, public) and many actors (individuals, households, communities, NGOs, governments at various levels and international organizations) against the background of asymmetric information and different types of risk. This expanded view of Social Protection emphasizes the double role of risk management instruments—protecting basic livelihood as well as promoting risk taking. It focuses specifically on the poor since they are the most vulnerable to risk and typically lack appropriate risk management instruments, which constrains them from engaging in riskier but also higher return activities and hence gradually moving out of chronic poverty.     

The UK Financial Sector and Risk Management in PFI Projects: A Survey

In PFI transactions the private companies which take on the obligation to build and manage a facility usually provide only a small fraction of the project's capital requirements. Most of the capital is borrowed from banks and other financial institutions. This poses challenges to financial services providers which often have to retain untypical residual project risks. This article describes the types of risks faced by financial services providers and the strategies they use to cope with these risks. Given the often politically-sensitive nature of PFI projects, the authors suggest that financial institutions should investigate a broader set of parameters than they do at present, which relate directly to the political economy of PFI projects.     

The Management of Currency Risk: Case Studies of US and UK Multinationals

This paper presents a case study analysis of currency risk management practice in large British and American multinational companies undertaken to extend findings obtained in a preliminary survey of 51 British multinational companies. The extension examines the behaviour of American as well as British companies, not just in terms of transaction risk but with reference to translation risk as well, and focuses upon the extent of risk neutrality. Case study analysis allows interviewers to evaluate differences in behaviour which may help to explain policies adopted.     

Real‐Time Risk Pricing Over the Business Cycle: Some Evidence for the UK

Abstract:   The fully‐revised data typically utilized in empirical research do not reflect the true information available to financial market participants at the time of their decision‐making. This paper uses a new real‐time macroeconomic dataset to appraise the relative importance of different vintages of data on economic variables as determinants of UK stock returns using the framework of Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We find that two factors influence expected stock returns, namely unanticipated inflation and economic uncertainty, but only when measured in real‐time. Moreover, their pricing influence is only present during phases of the business cycle when their associated risks are at their most prevalent.     

Internal financial constraints,external financial constraints,and investment choice: Evidence from a panel of UK firms

This paper uses a panel of 24,184 UK firms over the period 1993–2003 to study the extent to which the sensitivity of investment to cash flow differs at firms facing different degrees of internal and external financial constraints. Our results suggest that when the sample is split on the basis of the level of internal funds available to the firms, the relationship between investment and cash flow is U-shaped. On the other hand, the sensitivity of investment to cash flow tends to increase monotonically with the degree of external financial constraints faced by firms. Combining the internal with the external financial constraints, we find that the dependence of investment on cash flow is strongest for those externally financially constrained firms that have a relatively high level of internal funds.     

Venture capitalists, investment appraisal and accounting information: a comparative study of the USA, UK, France, Belgium and Holland

The differences between the information used for the pre‐investment valuation and the valuation methods used by venture capital investors in five countries (USA, UK, France, Belgium and Holland) are empirically studied. The analysis is based on postal questionnaire surveys of representative samples of senior venture capitalists in each country. Differences are found, which may be attributed to the dominant corporate governance mechanism or the level of development of the venture capital market. Between‐country differences persist even after taking into account between‐country differences in the relative importance of investment stages and venture capital types. Apparently similar systems and venture capital markets place varying emphases on different valuation methods, with theoretically 'correct' methods not always being preferred in practice. The findings of the study highlight the need for venture capital firms entering non‐domestic markets to invest considerable effort in understanding the operation of these markets if they are to exploit fully their perceived competitive advantages and minimize the likelihood of repeating the problems experienced by venture capital entrants into foreign markets in the late 1980s.     

The Management of Foreign Exchange Risk in UK Multinationals: An Empirical Investigation

This paper reports the results of an empirical study undertaken during 1988 into how UK multinational corporations try to manage their foreign exchange exposures. The paper concludes, with reservations due to the limited nature of the study, that accounting exposure was managed actively by the majority of respondents, that transaction exposure management was seen as the Centrepiece of their foreign exchange risk management, and that the management of economic exposure was subject to very heterogeneous practices. Further, the surveyed MNCs showed a lower degree of centralisation than could have been expected on the basis of the relevant literature, and the majority of respondents described their companies as ‘totally risk averse’.     

An Empirical Estimation of Default Risk of the UK Real Estate Companies

Based on the Black and Scholes (Black, F., and M. Scholes. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities, Journal of Political Economy 81, 637–659) and Merton (Merton, R. C. (1974). On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates, Journal of Finance 29, 449–470) (BSM) contingent claims model, and KMV Corporation framework, we estimate the distance to default and the “risk neutral” default probabilities for a sample of 112 real estate companies over the period 1980 to 2001. Our empirical results classifies failed and non-failed companies into Type I error, cases that the BSM-type model fails to predict default when it did occur, and Type II error where BSM-type model predicts default when it did not occur. We find that none of the companies belong to the category of Type I error. Type II error is observed in 12 out of 112 companies. These results support the theoretical underpinnings of the BSM-type structural model in that the two driving forces of default are high leverage and high asset volatility.     

Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Theory and Empirical Estimates from the UK Commercial Real Estate Market

The role of selling (or marketing) period uncertainty in understanding risk associated with property investment is examined in this paper. Using an approach developed by Lin (2004), and Lin and Vandell (2001, 2005), combined with a statistical model of UK commercial property transactions, we show that the ex ante level of risk exposure for a commercial real estate investor is around one and a half times that obtained from historical statistics. The risk related to marketing time uncertainty can be reduced by constructing a portfolio. We find that at least ten properties are necessary to reduce this risk, assuming independence between marketing period risk and price risk. These findings have important implications for mixed-asset portfolio allocation decisions.      

Recognition versus Disclosure: An Investigation of the Impact on Equity Risk Using UK Operating Lease Disclosures

This study examines the equivalency of accounting recognition versus disclosure. OLS regression analysis is used to determine whether there is an association between equity risk and an adjustment to financial risk for off-balance sheet operating leases. Two methods of adjustment are considered: constructive capitalisation and a simple factor method. The observation of a reliably positive association suggests that UK investors/analysts view operating leases from a property rights perspective rather than an ownership perspective. This supports the argument for recognition of all lease rights and obligations 'on-balance sheet', as proposed in the recent G4+1 discussion paper ASB (1999).     

Beyond nationalism: the universality of nonviolence

The greatest misconception about nation-building is that violence is always the ultimate form of defeating injustice and fighting a dictatorship. But during the last century, Mahatma Gandhi and many others have proven that nonviolence can be a powerful force which is capable of going beyond nationalism. Gandhi's profound analysis of the notion of ‘civilization’ places many new and important questions on the agenda of moral and practical philosophy today. In the march beyond nationalism, our world can move along with Gandhi's idea of civilization as nonviolence to get clear cut results in solving the problems related to poverty, war and violence.