Biases in option prices : Evidence from the foreign currency option market

This paper examines a European call model of option pricing over a data set which does not suffer from the early exercise problems that have plagued earlier studies of call options on common stocks. We specifically examine a data set of American call prices on spot foreign exchange for which it is plausible to apply an adjusted version of the Garman-Kohlhagen (1983) and Grabbe (1983) European call option model. We make adjustments for interest rate risk and find that the model is nearly unbiased in the valuation of foreign currency options. We conclude that the Geske-Roll (1984) conjecture about dividend uncertainty creating biases in stock option prices holds analogously in the foreign currency option market. Interest rate differential risk (analogous to risky dividends) thus appears to be an important element in the valuation of foreign currency options.     

Volatility in the foreign currency futures market

We examine the volatility implications of around-the-clock foreignexchange trading with transaction data on futures contractsfrom the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the London InternationalFinancial Futures Exchange. We find higher U.S.-European andU.S.-Japanese exchange-rate volatilities during U.S. tradinghours and higher European cross-rate volatilities during Europeantrading hours. While the disclosure of private information throughtrading may partly explain these volatility patterns, we concludethat the increased volatility is more likely driven by macroeconomicnews announcements. An analysis of inter- and intraday dataalso reveals that volatility increases at times that coincidewith the release of U.S. macroeconomic news.     

Efficiency of the foreign currency options market

This paper provides a new test of the efficiency of the currency option markets for four major currencies — British Pound, Euro, Swiss Frank and Japanese Yen vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. The approach is to simulate trading strategies to see if the well-accepted no-arbitrage condition of put–call parity (PCP) holds in a trading environment. Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Philips–Perron tests are used to check for the presence of unit roots in the data, followed by a formal econometric analysis. The results indicate that the most currency option prices do not violate the PCP conditions, when transaction costs are allowed for.     

Estimating the bid-ask spread in a heteroskedastic market: The case of foreign currency futures

Because the bid-ask spread often defies direct measurement, a serial covariance-based approach is frequently used to estimate it. We develop a new serial covariance estimator that exploits the relation of time-varying volatility to trading activity to obtain more precise estimates. The performance of Roll's (1984) estimator and the new estimator are compared using intraday data for four foreign currency futures. The new estimator finds currency futures spreads to be of economic significance—usually two to three ticks, or $25.00 to $37.50 per contract. A distinct maturity effect is present, with the lowest spreads occurring one to three months from expiration. While no evidence is found that the intraday spread changes near closing, the spread is larger near opening for some contracts four to six months from expiration.The University of Texas at Austin. We appreciate the comments of Katherine Daigle, Scott Irwin, Dan Quan, Barry Schachter, workshop participants at the University of Houston, and three anonymous referees. Part of this work was completed while Laux was visiting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the support of the Commission is appreciated.     

Convertibility risk: the precautionary demand for foreign currency in a crisis

This paper presents theoretical work linking money demand to the perceptions of households about the risk that domestic currency may become inconvertible or that it may be devalued. An empirical investigation of the size of this effect is carried out using monthly data for Korea to estimate an augmented demand-for-money equation. It is found that the fear of inconvertibility arising from the 1997 Korean currency crisis may have caused broad money demand to fall by 4–5% points,equivalent to the loss of reserves of $6–7.5 billion (or about 30% of reserves as measured at end-November 1997). This is a revised version of IMF Working paper WP/2001/210; it was written while Professor Black was Senior Policy Advisor at the IMF Institute and Christofides and Mourmouras were staff members in the IMF’s Policy Development and Review Department. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. For useful comments and suggestions we thank an anonymous referee, Tim Lane, Ydahlia Metzgen, Roberto Perelli, Tony Richards, Christian Mulder, Steve Russell, as well as seminar participants at the IMF Institute, the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, Federal Reserve Board, and Bank of Indonesia. We would also like to note similar (unpublished) empirical results using our approach by Dr. Rino Effendi for Indonesia and Angana Banerji for Russia     

A model of a currency shortage

Until the mid-19th century, shortages of currency were common. Moreover, a frequent policy response was a prohibition on the export of coins. We use a random matching model with indivisible money to explain a shortage and to judge the desirability of a prohibition on the export of coins. The model, although extreme in many regards, represents better than earlier models a demand for outside money and the problems that arise when that money is indivisible. It can also rationalize a prohibition on the export of money.     

The use of foreign currency derivatives and firm market value

This article examines the use of foreign currency derivatives(FCDs) in a sample of 720 large U.S. nonfinancial firms between1990 and 1995 and its potential impact on firm value. UsingTobin's Q as a proxy for firm value, we find a positive relationbetween firm value and the use of FCDs. The hedging premiumis statistically and economically significant for firms withexposure to exchange rates and is on average 4.87% of firm value.We also find some evidence consistent with the hypothesis thathedging causes an increase in firm value.     

The effect of foreign currency hedging on the probability of financial distress

This paper investigates the effect of foreign currency hedging with derivatives on the probability of financial distress. I use Merton’s (1974) structural default model to compute firms’ distance to default as a proxy for their probability of financial distress. Using an instrumental variables approach to control for endogenous hedging and leverage, I find that the extent of foreign currency hedging is associated with a lower probability of financial distress. Whereas previous research finds that the probability of financial distress is a determinant of a firm’s hedging policy, this paper provides direct evidence supporting the hypothesis that the extent of hedging reduces a firm’s probability of financial distress.     

The role of a large trader in a dynamic currency attack model

This paper studies the role of a large trader in a dynamic currency attack model based on Abreu and Brunnermeier (2003), who study stock market bubbles and crashes in a dynamic model with a continuum of rational small traders. We introduce a large trader into their model and apply it to currency attacks. In an attack against a fixed exchange rate regime with a gradually overvalued currency, traders lack common knowledge about the time when the overvaluation starts and need to coordinate to break a peg. Both the inability of traders to synchronize their attack and their incentive to time the collapse of the regime lead to the persistent overvaluation of the currency. We find that the presence of a large trader with perfect information induces small traders to attack sooner and leads to an accelerated collapse of the regime. But the presence of a large trader with noisy information may delay the collapse of the regime ex post. Moreover, a large trader with precise information tends to be at the rear of an attack. With noisy information, he could attack earlier or later than small traders. In both cases, the large trader affects market dynamics of the attack substantially.     

Evidence of risk premiums in foreign currency futures markets

Weekly data for foreign currency futures prices are examinedfor evidence of risk premium. Covariance risks are measuredwith respect to the excess returns from benchmark portfoliosfor consumption and wealth. When the parameters representingthe prices of the covariance risks are held constant, no riskpremiums are detected. However, when these prices are allowedto vary with the conditional expected returns and variancesof the benchmark portfolios, possibly reflecting changing investmentopportunities, strong evidence of risk premiums is obtained.     

The implementation of an adjusted relative strength index model in foreign currency and energy markets of emerging and developed economies

This study proposes refinements to some weaknesses in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) model and tests its predictability over pre and post crisis periods for the most active USD based currency pairs, including two energy markets. A new model (AdRSI) is tested using daily data over 2001–2015. Benchmarked against RSI and buy-and-hold models, findings support an inverse relationship between energy and currency markets. While energy markets had relatively higher risk, Chinese yuan had the lowest annualized risk. AdRSI produced higher annualized returns, lower number of trades and higher annualized risk. Overall, the buy-and-hold model was superior with higher reward-to-volatility.     

Arbitrage tests of the efficiency of the foreign currency options market

In this paper the lower boundary, excercise price, and put-call parity conditions for foreign currency options are subjected to empirical testing. The tests are directed towards the examination of the hypothesis that the foreign currency option market is efficient. The evidence in the ex-post tests is inconsistent with this hypothesis since a large number of violations of theoretical conditions are found in the data.     

外卡收单动态货币转换的技术实现

外卡收单动态货币转换(DCC,Dynamic Currency Conversion)是外卡收单业务的新领域,其功能是境外银行卡持卡人在中国消费时可用外卡账户的币种(而非人民币)进行结算.     

On the pricing of European and American foreign currency call options

This study uses Cox-Ross analysis and dynamic programming techniques to price foreign currency call options. We show that, under certain conditions, the American call price will exceed its European counterpart, while under other conditions the two prices will be identical. We find that the American premium is a complex function of the degree to which an option is in or out of the money, and that this premium is greatest when an option is near in or out. We present empirical evidence which shows that the American model significantly improves upon a European model; however, significant pricing errors associated with the American model remain.     

The effects of SFAS 133 on foreign currency exposure of US-based multinational corporations

This study examines the change in foreign currency exposure of US-based multinational corporations (MNCs) upon implementation of SFAS 133—Disclosure of Derivative Instruments. We attempt to answer the question of whether this accounting requirement, which seeks to eliminate earnings surprises associated with derivatives, actually impacts earnings volatility and hedging strategies of exporting firms. Our results indicate that firms who were hedged prior to SFAS 133, i.e., those which managed their exposure using operational hedges, derivatives, or both, were able to decrease exposure to exchange rates following SFAS 133. However, those that were hedged prior to SFAS 133 and remained hedged following SFAS 133 did so without significantly changing their imbalances, i.e., without using operational hedges. These firms also experienced an increase in earnings volatility and a decrease in earnings predictability, as predicted by critics of the regulation. However, market value does not change following SFAS 133, implying that investors do not equate accounting regulation changes and EPS volatility with changes in cash flow.     

Put-call parity revisited: intradaily tests in the foreign currency options market

We test exchange-traded (PHLX) German mark options for conformance to put-call parity (PCP). Puts and calls are matched to the nearest minute, and the relative impact of competing spot exchange rate sources (Reuters vs. Telerate) is assessed. We find that PCP usually holds (roughly 96% of put-call pairs), with the exception of a notable incident in the European options pits. In those instances in which PCP is violated, we find sharp intradaily and intraweekly seasonalities for American options, with disproportionate PCP violations occurring during the relatively light trading periods in early evening and on Fridays. We also conclude that the Telerate prices as recorded by the PHLX are not as accurate as the Reuters exchange rates provided by Olsen and Associates, probably because of time lags in the Telerate data.     

Risk and wealth in a model of self-fulfilling currency attacks

Market participants’ risk attitudes, wealth and portfolio composition influence their positions in a pegged foreign currency and, therefore, may have important effects on the sustainability of currency pegs. This paper analyzes such effects in a global game model of currency crises with continuous action choices, generating a rich set of theoretical comparative static predictions related to often discussed but rarely modelled accounts of currency attacks. The model can be solved in closed form and the methods could be used to study other economic issues in which coordination and risk aversion play important roles.     

An analysis of asymmetry in foreign currency exposure of the Australian equities market

Using both daily and monthly data, the authors: (a) analyse the extra-market component of foreign exchange exposure of the Australian equities market using the Australian/US exchange rate factor return in an augmented market model; and (b) use a dummy variable specification to model the potential asymmetric effect induced by non-linear hedging strategies, such as using currency options, for the period 1988–1996. Overall, the results are mixed. The following are found: (i) stronger evidence of foreign exchange exposure in the analysis employing daily data; (ii) when using daily data, a stronger lagged response than a contemporaneous response is observed; (iii) some evidence of asymmetry; and (iv) evidence of significant exchange rate exposures of the predicted sign in several industries. Further, the findings using monthly data are less significant than those using daily data.     

Google Internet search activity and volatility prediction in the market for foreign currency

I study whether evolution in the number of Google Internet searches for particular keywords can predict volatility in the market for foreign currency. I find that data on Google searches for the keywords economic crisis + financial crisis and recession has incremental predictive power beyond the GARCH(1,1). These results support the mixture of distributions hypothesis in that volatility is linked to the stochastic rate at which information flows into the marketplace. These results also demonstrate the potential for Google to become a storehouse of information for financial markets.     

Exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign currency derivatives in the Australian resources sector

In this paper, we provide a re-examination of the exchange rate exposure and foreign currency derivative use by Australian resources firms in the 2006–2009 period which is characterized by increased volatility caused by the global financial crisis. In particular, we consider the interaction of a resources firm's exchange rate risk exposures, foreign currency derivative use and the global financial crisis simultaneously. Conforming to expectations, our results indicate that more companies are significantly exposed to exchange rate risk since the onset of the financial crisis. However, there is a lack of evidence that the use of foreign currency derivative is more effective in alleviating exchange rate exposures during the crisis as opposed to the pre-crisis period.