集体林权改革制度下农户劳动力分配情况分析——基于辽宁省农户调查数据

利用辽宁省5个县农户2000、2006、2010年的面板数据,进行林改前后农户劳动力分配变化、产权安全对农户就业影响的回归分析,结果表明:林改后随着户均林地面积的增加,农户增加了对林业的投工,林业生产与非农就业存在一定程度的替代性,但随着农户年龄、教育水平的增长,非农就业,特别是工资性劳动的投工呈增长趋势;产权安全的增长对农户加强林业生产有正相关关系。     

财政支出对我国农业增长的多途径影响

本文采用变系数生产模型,将全要素生产率中涉及各生产要素质量提升的部分剥离,从而识别财政支出通过不同途径影响农业增长的内在机制,并利用省级面板数据(1978-2015年31个省份)和县级面板数据(1993-2010年2495个县),从宏观和中观视角实证考察和比较了各改革阶段财政支出通过不同途径对农业产出的影响及其长期总体...     

The Effects of Housing Prices, Wages, and Commuting Time on Joint Residential and Job Location Choices

An empirical model of joint decisions of where to live and where to work demonstrates that individuals make residential and job location choices by trading off wages, housing prices, and commuting costs. Wages are higher in metropolitan markets, but housing prices are also higher in urban areas. Consumers can live in lower priced nonmetropolitan houses and still earn urban wages, but they incur commuting costs that increase with distance from the city. Improvements in transportation that lower commuting time will increase nonmetropolitan populations and will increase the number of nonmetropolitan commuters to metropolitan markets. Equal wage growth across labor markets causes a shift in relative population from rural to urban markets, while an equiproportional increase in housing prices causes a population shift toward rural areas.     

Nonfarm employment,agricultural intensification,and productivity change: empirical findings from Uganda

This article uses panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Study‐Integrated Surveys on Agriculture for Uganda to assess the farm‐level effects of nonfarm employment on agricultural intensification and productivity change. A sample selection model is used to account for both unobserved heterogeneity and potential simultaneity between agricultural production and nonfarm income. Results show that nonfarm employment can have differential impacts on farm technology intensity and productivity. Nonfarm income is found to have a positive impact on farm hired labor and improved seed intensity; a negative effect on on‐farm family labor use; and no significant impact on fertilizer, soil water management, and joint use of farm technologies. The econometric evidence also indicates that agricultural productivity declines as nonfarm income increases. Taken together, our findings reveal important trade‐offs between nonfarm employment and income and farm productivity growth under smallholder agriculture. The results indicated that targeted policies are required to reduce these potential trade‐offs between nonfarm employment and agricultural intensification and productivity change.     

非农就业对家庭营林劳动力投工女性化的影响研究

根据劳动力转移新经济学理论和家庭内部劳动力分工理论,基于2018年浙江省14个县(市)681户营林调查户样本数据,运用Tobit模型分析了非农就业对营林劳动力女性化的影响。结果表明:非农就业对女性劳动力单位面积营林投工量和女性营林投工比例具有显著正向影响;非农就业对不同林种营林投入女性化有明显差异,对经济林农户家庭营林投工女性化有显著正向影响,而对用材林农户家庭营林投工女性化作用不明显。提出完善农村劳动力社会保障制度;加强农村女性劳动力营林生产技能培训;发挥女性劳动力的营林生产优势等建议。     

Central versus local states: Which matters more in affecting China's urban growth?

To date, many geography studies have identified GDP, population, FDI, and transportation factors as key drivers of urban growth in China. The political science literature has demonstrated that China's urban growth is also driven by powerful economic and fiscal incentives for local governments, as well as by the political incentives of local leaders who control land use in their jurisdictions. These parallel but distinct research traditions limit a comprehensive understanding that can result in partial and potentially misleading conclusions of urbanization in China. This paper presents a spatially explicit study that incorporates both political science and geographic perspectives to understand the relative importance of hierarchal administrative governments in affecting urban growth. We use multi-level modeling approach to examine how socio-economic and policy factors – represented here by fiscal transfers – at different administrative levels affect growth in “urban hotspot counties” across three time periods (1995–2000, 2000–2005, and 2005–2008). Our results show that counties that are more dependent on fiscal transfers from the central government convert less cultivated land to urban use, controlling for other factors. We also find that local governments are becoming more powerful in shaping urban land development as a result of local economic, fiscal, and political incentives, as well as through the practical management and control of capital, land, and human resources. By incorporating fiscal transfers in our analysis, our study examines a factor in the urban development of China that had previously been neglected and provides an improved understanding of the underlying processes and pathways involved in urban growth in China.     

Location determinants of food manufacturers in the United States, 2000–2004: are nonmetropolitan counties competitive?

Infrastructure, agglomeration, product and input markets, fiscal attributes, and labor markets of local communities influenced food manufacturing location decisions in the lower 48 United States, 2000–2004. Negative binomial regression and spatial clustering methods forecast food processor location patterns at the county level. Noncore counties are at a comparative disadvantage with respect to attracting most food processors, but nonmetropolitan counties adjacent to urban areas may be attractive investment sites for footloose, supply, and demand-oriented food manufacturers.     

Rural Population Growth, 1950–1990: The Roles of Human Capital, Industry Structure, and Government Policy

Human capital raises rural incomes, but this effect is swamped by higher returns to human capital in urban markets. This leads to "brain drain" from rural areas. Populations grow more rapidly in rural counties that have a diversified employment base. Farm population grows faster (or declines more slowly) in counties with relatively high farm income, and nonfarm populations grow faster in counties with relatively high nonfarm income. However, higher farm incomes lead to slower nonfarm population growth and vice versa. Rural county government services financed by local taxes or debt have neutral or negative effects on population growth.     

工业智能化如何影响城乡收入差距——来自农业转移劳动力就业视角的解释

随着智能制造装备在各行业的不断普及,其对劳动力就业的影响逐渐加深。基于2001~2016年中国省级面板数据与流动人口监测数据,本研究从劳动力的就业行为与收入视角,采用动态空间面板模型评估了工业智能化对城乡收入差距的影响。结果表明,工业智能化显著扩大了城乡收入差距。在人口大规模跨区域流动背景下,这一效应具有明显的空间外溢性。进一步的检验与机制分析发现,工业智能化显著降低了农业转移人口的收入水平与工作稳定性,不利于农业转移人口稳定迁移,且这种影响存在明显的个体异质性。本研究的研究结论为政府持续加大农村教育投入与职业技能培训投入给予了实证支持,也为推进财政体制改革方向提供了启示。     

财税政策、工农业分工与农业生产率——理论分析与经验证据

本文基于动态分工演进,以自给自足的自然经济为起点,将秩序服务和财税政策纳入一个理论框架,结合超边际决策分析和一般均衡分析,考察在此过程中各个经济人的最优决策在市场上相互作用而内生的各种变化,揭示了财税政策作用于工农业分工和农业生产率的内在机制。然后,使用中国改革开放以来的数据对相关结论进行实证检验。模型分析表明,政府财税政策的实施在促进工农业分工水平提高的情况下,会扩大粮食生产的迂回化经济程度,进而推动粮食部门的农地生产率提升。就长期而言,单位面积的财政支农支出对农地生产率的提高有显著正向影响,在其他农业生产要素既定情况下,单位面积的财政支农支出每增加1%,农地生产率增加3.23%;从短期来看,单位面积财政支农支出对农地生产率的作用较弱,但在反向修正机制的作用下,最终会达到有效提高农地生产率的长期稳定均衡。另外,财政支农支出的增加促进了分工水平的提高,而分工水平的提高又推动了农业生产率的提升。     

Measuring the Impact of Meat Packing and Processing Facilities in Nonmetropolitan Counties: A Difference-in-Differences Approach

Considerable controversy exists regarding the costs and benefits of growth in the meat packing and processing industry for rural counties. This study investigates the effects of this industry on social and economic outcomes in nonmetropolitan counties of 23 Midwestern and Southern states from 1990 to 2000. Results suggest that as the meat packing industry's share of a county's total employment and wage bill rises, total employment growth increases. However, employment growth in other sectors slows, as does local wage growth. Industry growth has little impact on local crime rates or on growth of government spending on education, health, or police protection.     

基于手机信令对农民工返乡入乡创业园的监测分析

目的 2020年11月农业农村部等7部门联合印发《关于推进返乡入乡创业园建设 提升农村创业创新水平的意见》。指出到2025年在全国县域建设1 500个返乡入乡创业园。文章介绍了对返乡入乡创业园进行选址评估、日常监管以及人群分析等,为政府部门对调控创业产业链生态,扶持创业园发展提供数据支撑。方法 利用手机信令大数据、时空大数据、人群画像、人工智能等技术,基于人口时空流动及劳动力迁徙模型,并通过全量外推专利算法,对全国人口迁徙轨迹、地理位置信息等大数据进行监测分析。结果 通过对返乡入乡创业园及县域人口情况进行常态化监测,分析可得出创业园就业规模、工作量、就业群体、就业人员来源地等信息。结论 返乡入乡创业园是引导更多农民返乡创业创新,带动农民就业增收,助力乡村全面振兴的重要抓手,运用手机信令大数据对园区所在县域的人口迁徙轨迹进行动态监测,对返乡入乡创业园的选址、人才的吸纳、带动就业的岗位数量情况以及对当地县域经济的影响的分析都具有重要参考价值。     

Off-farm Labour Supply with Productivity Increases,Peak Period Production and Farm Structure Impacts

The study of of-farm employment of farm family members in the context of a neoclassical time allocation model of labor supply is used to attempt to explain the amount and type of off-farm employment currently prevalent on the Canadian Prairies. The effect of labor saving technical change together with a production process characterized by periods of peak activity affect the priority that may be assigned to off-farm work These factors require explicit consideration in the theoretical framework for the study of off-farm employment. The refinements occasioned by expanding the paradigm in this manner have implications for the role of rural development policy in the support of the agricultural sector     

农村劳动力转移就业稳定性对土地流转的影响效应研究基于迁移异质性视角

目的 基于2017年在广东、河南、湖北、山西、云南5省所做的农户调查数据, 从迁移异质性角度, 考察了劳动力转移就业稳定性对农户土地流转的影响差异。方法 文章使用IV-Probit和IV-Tobit模型, 解决劳动力转移就业行为内生性的问题, 实现模型参数结果的无偏估计。结果 在广延边际上, 劳动力季节性非稳定转移就业对农户转入、转出土地均没有显著影响, 而常年稳定转移就业仅对农户转出土地有显著正影响, 家庭每新增1个常年在外务工者, 会使农户土地转出倾向增加9.5%;在集约边际上, 虽然稳定和非稳定的转移就业方式都降低了农地需求, 但只有常年稳定转移就业显著促进了农地供给的增加, 家庭每新增1个常年在外务工者, 会使农户土地转出数量增加8.1%。结论 促进农村转移劳动力向城市的稳定迁移和就业, 尤其是让非稳定转移就业者实现在城市的长期、稳定就业, 是解决现阶段农村土地流转市场供给不足的有效出路。     

中国农村居民收入分配中的机会不平等：2013—2018年

消除机会不平等,解决收入分配不公是构建体现公平与效率分配体系的重要举措。本文利用CHIP2013年和2018年数据对农村机会不平等问题进行研究,研究发现,第一,研究期内的农村居民收入机会不平等程度出现小幅下降,从2013年的24.4%下降到2018年的22.2%。第二,异质性分析显示,女性相对于男性,青壮年劳动力相对于老年劳动力,贫困县相对于非贫困县,机会不平等更为严重。第三,性别歧视对机会不平等贡献度最高,其次是年龄和区域(贫困县)因素,家庭环境影响最低。第四,农村机会不平等的间接渠道效应有所提高。女性主要面临与教育不公平相关的间接效应,男性主要受非竞争市场环境影响。第五,贫困县就业间接渠道效应跨期下降,据此推测国家"精准扶贫"政策有助于缓解由非竞争市场带来的就业机会不公问题。     

我国农村劳动力的就业意向选择分析——以统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区重庆市为例

农村劳动力的就业意向选择问题研究是对农村富余劳动力转移就业问题研究的进一步深化。该文以统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区重庆农村劳动力资源为主要研究对象,以其当前就业意向性选择为切入点,对影响农村劳动力当前就业意向的不同偏好因素进行分析,对其相关特征变量进行了详细的描述性统计分析,并采用多元Logit模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明,重庆山区农村劳动力当前就业意向存在着明显的性别差异,男性农村劳动力素质总体上优于农村女性劳动力,两者平均年龄仍较高,男性农村劳动力更倾向于外出务工或经商就业,但总体收入仍不理想。务农就业意向的农村劳动力与务工、自主创业或经商就业意向的农村劳动力相比,在年龄、耕地、收入等变量方面存在显著劣势差异。农村劳动力的人力资本、家庭禀赋和所在村劳动力人口数等变量对其不同的就业意向选择具有重要影响和显著差异。     

基于农民增收视角的石漠化片区分类治理研究

运用聚类分析——灰色关联法,将广西石漠化片区77个县区分为3类,对影响农民收入的植被恢复、农牧业发展、产业结构等进行关联分析研究。结果表明:地区石漠化程度与农民收入呈反比;农牧业加速土地石漠化;各类县区均存在产业结构不合理现象,第二产业基础薄弱,前两类县区第三产业发展水平落后;各类县区生态补偿等转移性支付过低,与石漠化的现状不相匹配。提出加大生态投入,提高石漠化片区农民收入的生态补偿;创造条件,增加农民财产性收入;调整产业结构,促进产业结构优化升级;大力发展林业,构建农林复合经营的生态系统;加强劳动力技能培训,提高农民就业能力等基于农民增收的石漠化片区政策建议。     

How imbalanced land development affects local fiscal condition? A case study of Hubei Province,China

Aiming at realizing the efficacy and fairness of spatial allocation of land resources, zoning is one of the most widespread tools adopted by governments around the world. However it also brings imbalanced land development which will lead to the "windfall-wipeout dilemma" of stakeholders. Local government regarded as the regional governor and economic driver, is an important part of stakeholders, and will fall into fiscal dilemma when the land development is restricted. In this paper, we discuss how imbalanced land development affects local fiscal condition based on the theory of farmland preservation externality and finance and taxation system. Taking Hubei Province as an example, the degree of imbalanced land development, and the relationship between local fiscal condition and imbalanced land development are quantified by employing a panel dataset of 88 local jurisdictions (counties or districts) from 2009 to 2014. The results show that: (1) The degree of imbalanced land development in Hubei Province is 0.260 with characteristics of temporal decrease and spatial increase from high urbanized eastern areas to middle, northern agricultural dominate areas to low urbanized western mountainous areas. (2) The imbalanced land development aggravates the local government fiscal difficulty, the higher degree of imbalanced land development, the more serious the fiscal condition is. Therefore, innovation of trans-regional fiscal payment on the basis of the degree of imbalanced land development can effectively address the local fiscal dilemmas and achieve regional coordinated development.     

“十四五”时期农村劳动力就业:形势展望、结构预测和对策思路

“十四五”时期,世界处于百年未有之大变局深度演化期,我国农村劳动力就业形势更加复杂,困难和挑战前所未有.供给层面,农村劳动力的规模、结构和意愿显著变化.需求层面,全球化巨大的不确定性增加了就业红利减少的风险,城镇产业新旧动能转换可能导致摩擦性和结构性失业,农村就业承载力和就业空间也迎来调整.综合人口增长和城镇发展态势,...     

Multiple job holdings among dairy farm families in New York and Ontario

Previous empirical studies of multiple job holding have tended to focus on the characteristics of those obtaining off-farm employment and the factors affecting the hours supplied to those obtaining off-farm activities. None of these studies have explicitly addressed the reasons behind the decision to seek off-farm employment. Neither have they been able to examine in-depth the important issue of how this major component of the farm sector responds to alternative policies, since most studies have used cross-sectional data for a given region. A comparison between countries would permit the analysis of how multiple job holding responds to differing government policies. The purpose of this paper is to examine the reasons for and factors affecting multiple job holdings of dairy farm families in neighboring regions of two counties, United States and Canada. The bordering regions of New York and Ontario have similar geographic conditions but significantly different farm support and social service policies. The results indicate the importance of farm income on why people work off the farm and provide evidence of multiple job holding as a flexible mechanism for coping with changes in the economic environment facing the household. For operators, the driving characteristics influencing off-farm labor participation is the farm's financial position. The supply-managed milk marketing system ensures higher and more stable returns for Ontario dairy farm labor. In contrast, it is family demographics, educational level and social support policy that appears to largely influence spousal off-farm employment decisions. Free medical care in Ontario lowers the reservation wage for household members. The effect of these farm and social support policies on the relative returns to labor in agriculture and non-farm employment explains the lower participation rate and hours supplied in off-farm work by both operators, and hours supplied in off-farm work by both operators and spouses in Ontario dairy farm household.