A dynamic analysis of moving average rules

The use of various moving average (MA) rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. These rules have recently become the focus of a number empirical studies, but there have been very few studies of financial market models where some agents employ technical trading rules of the type used in practice. In this paper, we propose a dynamic financial market model in which demand for traded assets has both a fundamentalist and a chartist component. The chartist demand is governed by the difference between current price and a (long-run) MA. Both types of traders are boundedly rational in the sense that, based on a fitness measure such as realized capital gains, traders switch from a strategy with low fitness to the one with high fitness. We characterize the stability and bifurcation properties of the underlying deterministic model via the reaction coefficient of the fundamentalists, the extrapolation rate of the chartists and the lag length used for the MA. By increasing the intensity of choice to switching strategies, we then examine various rational routes to randomness for different MA rules. The price dynamics of the MA rule are also examined and one of our main findings is that an increase of the window length of the MA rule can destabilize an otherwise stable system, leading to more complicated, even chaotic behaviour. The analysis of the corresponding stochastic model is able to explain various market price phenomena, including temporary bubbles, sudden market crashes, price resistance and price switching between different levels.     

Bids as a Vehicle of (Mis)Information: Collusion in English Auctions with Affiliated Values

In an English auction, a bidder’s strategy depends on the prices at which his competitors drop out, because these convey information on the value of the object on sale. A ring of colluding bidders can strategically manipulate the information transmitted through its members’ bids, in order to mislead other bidders into bidding less aggressively and thus allow a designated bidder to bid more aggressively. Collusion increases the probability that the ring wins the auction and reduces the price it pays. The presence of a ring harms other bidders (as well as the seller) and reduces efficiency.     

Economic Efficiency and Productivity Growth in the Post-Privatization Chilean Hydroelectric Industry

Chiles hydroelectric industry was privatized in 1985, but required to operate within a regulatory framework designed to achieve a competitive outcome. A centralized dispatch center was established to ensure production at minimum cost, subject to constraints on minimum release and minimum reservoir stock. A reluctance to rapidly reduce the industry work force may also have existed. We develop a constrained cost-minimization model for thermal and hydro generation to obtain the shadow price of water and to determine the qualitative effect of these constraints on allocative efficiency. Using panel data from 1986–1997, we assess the economic efficiency of the hydro industry by estimating a stochastic distance frontier and price equations from the dual cost-minimization problem. We find dramatic increases in technical change and productivity change, with positive efficiency change for all years but the last. We also observe a dramatic decline in allocative inefficiencies over our sample period. The share of hydro generation from run-of-river and thermal plants relative to reservoir plants has increased, presumably in reaction to the water release and reservoir stock constraints, reducing the relative over-utilization of capital to water from the pre-1985 regime. Further, the over-utilization of labor to capital and water has fallen over time. However, considerable allocative inefficiencies remain, consistent with our finding of industry-wide scale economies. Substantial cost savings would result if technical and allocative efficiency were eliminated.JEL Classification: L94, D24     

Assessing the technical efficiency of public procurements in the bus transportation sector in the Czech Republic

This article examines public procurements in the regional bus transportation sector. The data were collected exclusively for this research from regional offices in the Czech Republic. This study does not propose to estimate the cost function for bus operators, as do most efficiency studies. Rather, it’ focuses on identifying the factors that influence the final price offered by participants in the tender. Knowing these factors will help to properly set the tender conditions, which can further help to improve how well the bus operator functions, and to reduce public subsidies. The study also aims to estimate the technical efficiency rate by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and find the implications of efficiency scoring for tender conditions. This statistic also enables contract owners to compare the cost differences between individual bus service providers and examine companies that operate at the efficiency frontier.     

Consumer Stockpiling and Price Competition in Differentiated Markets

In many storable-goods markets, firms are often aware that consumers may strategically adjust purchase timing in response to expected price dynamics. For example, in periods when prices are low, consumers stockpile for future consumption. This paper investigates the dynamic impact of consumer stockpiling on competing firms' strategic pricing decisions in differentiated markets. The necessity of equilibrium consumer storage for storable products is re-examined. It is shown that preference heterogeneity generates differential consumer stockpiling propensity, thereby intensifying future price competition. As a result, consumer storage may not necessarily arise as an equilibrium outcome. Economic forces are also investigated that may mitigate the competition-intensifying effect of consumer inventories and that, hence, may lead to equilibrium consumer storage.     

Price experimentation with strategic buyers

A two-period model in which a monopolist endeavors to learn about the permanent demand parameter of a specific repeat buyer is investigated. The buyer may strategically reject the seller’s first-period offer for one of two reasons. First, in order to conceal information (i.e., to pool), a high-valuation buyer may reject high prices that would never be accepted by a low-valuation buyer. Second, in order to reveal information (i.e., to signal), a low-valuation buyer may reject low prices that would always be accepted by a high-valuation buyer. Given this, the seller often finds it optimal to post prices that reveal no useful information. Indeed, in the equilibrium where there is no signaling, the seller never charges an informative first-period price. Learning may occur in the equilibrium where there is maximal signaling, but the scope for learning is quite limited even in this case. Indeed, in order to preempt information transmission through signaling, the seller may be induced to set a first-period price strictly below the buyer’s lowest possible valuation.      

Restricting Multiple-Output Multiple-Input DEA Models by Disaggregating the Output–Input Vector

One of the strengths of DEA in the measurement of technical efficiency is that it readily accommodates multiple-output multiple-input production technologies. In doing so, it assumes that each of the inputs is used jointly in the production of each output. In some applied studies, this can be undesirable. We propose a new disaggregated formulation that allows a specific output to be made independent of a specific input, while maintaining the joint production relationship for the other outputs and inputs. We demonstrate the approach by applying it to measure the technical efficiency of national rail systems in 20 countries between 1990 and 1998.JEL Classification: C6, D24, N7     

Patterns of corporate governance and technical efficiency in Italian manufacturing

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between the corporate governance system and technical efficiency in Italian manufacturing. We use a non‐parametric frontier technique (DEA) to derive technical efficiency measures for a sample of Italian firms taken from nine manufacturing industries. These measures are then related to the characteristics of the corporate governance system. Two of these characteristics turn out to have a positive impact on technical efficiency: the percentage of the company shares owned by the largest shareholder and the fact that a firm belongs to a pyramidal group. Interestingly, a trade‐off emerges between these influences, in the sense that one is stronger in industries where the other is weaker. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decomposition of cost efficiency and its application to Japanese-US electric utility comparisons

This paper presents a new formula for decomposing cost efficiency into technical, price, and allocative efficiencies in an environment marked by the fact that unit input prices differ among certain enterprises. We employed this formula in comparing cost efficiency between Japanese and US electric power companies, and found a significant difference in the price-based efficiency. However, negligible differences were found in the technical and allocative efficiencies.     

The state of research on markets for sports betting and suggested future directions

Studies of markets for sports betting can be a rich source of knowledge on the process of price formation and the information content of market prices. But recent research in this field examines questions of a technical nature, questions of interest mostly to active participants in the literature. A change in direction, motivated by creative use of the efficiency hypothesis, may deliver insights that would be valuable to the profession in general. Some preliminary analyses along these lines are presented in the hope of stimulating new lines of inquiry in the field.     

Strategic behavior in a service industry

A model of service duopoly is formulated, where the arrival of customers and their service time in the firm are stochastic. The firms first choose the service capacity, and given the capacity they then choose the price in a Bertrand competition. Capacity choices have a negative externality on the competitor, since increased capacity in one firm decreases its expected full price (price plus cost of waiting) and leads to a flow of customers from the other firm. If the firms choose capacities strategically, it is optimal to underinvest compared to the non‐strategic case, but this result may arise in different ways. By underinvesting the firms commit themselves to longer queues (lower quality) to relax price competition. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relative economic efficiency in Texas nursing facilities: A profit function analysis

The purpose of this analysis is to examine the relative economic efficiency of profit-seeking versus nonprofit nursing facilities. A Cobb-Douglas profit function is used on cross-sectional data to determine the technical efficiency, price efficiency, and overall economic efficiency of Texas nursing facilities. Ownership form influences the profit level of the firm. Profit-seeking firms are more economically efficient than their nonprofit counterparts. Inclusion of price efficiency analyses reinforces profit-seeking firms’ superior technical efficiency. Additionally, nursing facilities are price takers in the output market as well as in resource markets, indicating effective industry regulation.     

Managerial Reaction to Takeover Bids: A Theory of Strategic Resistance

This paper develops a theory to explain the frequently observed resistance offered by the management of target firms to high-premium takeover bids. Contrary to the popular perception of managerial entrenchment at the expense of the shareholders' interests, such resistance may be strategically designed to increase shareholder wealth by threatening to initiate an informal auction process fur the target involving other potential bidders. Remarkably, this strategy can be effective even when it is common knowledge that the other bidders do not have a higher reservation price for the target. The analysis also offers insights into division of takeover gains and several other takeover-related issues.     

Environmental efficiency measurement and the materials balance condition

The materials balance condition is a fundamental adding up condition, which essentially says that: “what goes in must come out”. In this paper we argue that a number of the recently developed methods of incorporating pollution measures into standard productive efficiency models may be inconsistent with this fundamental condition. We propose an alternative method that involves the incorporation of the materials balance concept into the production model in a similar manner to which price information is normally incorporated. This produces a new environmental efficiency measure that can be decomposed into technical and allocative components, in a similar manner to the conventional cost efficiency decomposition. The approach is illustrated with the case of phosphorus emission on Belgian pig-finishing farms, using data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods. Our results indicate that a substantial proportion of nutrient pollution on these farms can be abated in a cost reducing manner.     

Structural analysis and forecast of gold price returns

Gold has multiple attributes and its price is affected by various factors in the market. This paper studies the dynamic relationship between the gold price returns and its affecting factors. Then we use the STL-ETS, neural network and Bayesian structural time series model to predict the gold price returns, and compare their performance with the benchmark models. The results show that the shocks of crude oil returns and VIX have the positive effect on gold price returns, the shocks of the US dollar index have the negative effect on gold price returns. And the fluctuation of gold price returns mainly depends on crude oil price returns shocks. STL-ETS model can accurately fit the fluctuation trend of the gold price returns and improve prediction accuracy.     

The emerging market crisis and stock market linkages: further evidence

This study examines the long‐run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission among the USA, Germany, and four major Eastern European emerging stock markets, with particular attention to the impact of the 1998 Russian financial crisis. The results show that both the long‐run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission were strengthened among these markets after the crisis. The influence of Germany became noticeable on all the Eastern European markets only after the crisis but not before the crisis. We also conduct a rolling generalized VAR analysis to confirm the robustness of the main findings. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Technical efficiency and the competitive behavior of hospitals

This paper examines whether the competitive behavior of hospitals influences the extent to which their productive efficiency deviates from best-practice standards. An index of technical inefficiency is constructed by means of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for 189 acute-care hospitals in the State of Florida in 1989. A regression model is then specified that estimates the impact of competitive dynamics in local hospital markets over the period 1982–1988 on these 1989 DEA efficiency scores, controlling for a set uf internal and external constraints on managerial decision making. Among other things, the empirical analysis shows that these ratings are systematically accounted for by both the nature and vigor of hospital competition, with price leaders in highly competitive markets in particular shown to be more efficient. The public policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Technical inefficiency and productive decline in the U.S. interstate natural gas pipeline industry under the Natural Gas Policy Act

Firm-specific and temporal patterns of technical efficiency of the interstate natural gas transmission industry during the implementation of the Natural Gas Policy Act are estimated by two alternative methodologies. A new panel stochastic frontier systems estimator exploits the potential exogeneity of certain regressors from firm effects. This allows for heterogeneity in slopes, as well as in intercepts. Patterns of technical efficiency based on the structural stochastic model are compared with those based on deterministic programming methods, data envelopment analysis. Concordant findings based on these alternative methodologies suggest a perversive pattern of declining technical efficiency in the industry during the period of phased in well-head price deregulation.     

Vertical Disintegration

With economies of scale, a vertically integrated firm can lower its upstream cost by supplying downstream competitors. The competitors may strategically choose not to purchase from the integrated firm, unless the latter's price for the intermediate good is sufficiently lower than those of alternative suppliers. In a simple model of dynamic scale economies through learning by doing, equilibrium vertical disintegration occurs if and only if total industry profit is higher under vertical separation than under integration. The model bridges a logical gap in George Stigler's classic theory on vertical organization, and sheds light on the widely observed phenomenon of vertical disintegration .     

Corporate social responsibility: The implications of cost improvement and promotion effort

We investigate the interaction of these two strategic decisions when corporate social responsibility (CSR) is incorporated into supply chain partners' decisions. Our results show that, with a noncooperative CSR scenario, the upstream manufacturer is more aggressive in investing in innovation to reduce production costs, which strategically lowers the wholesale price to retailers, and the downstream retailer is also less reluctant to engage in more promotion efforts to induce demand in comparison with a cooperative CSR scenario. Furthermore, the customer's sensitivity to promotion effort may hurt the CSR level of each party.