中国实行通货膨胀目标制的可行性分析

通货膨胀目标制是一种以保持低而稳定的通货膨胀为首要目标的货币政策框架。本研究参照IMF提出的相关指标,并考虑到中国作为转型国家的经济特征,从中国当前经济运行中控制一般物价水平的必要性、经济结构的完善性、金融市场和银行体系的健全性、中央银行的独立性、货币政策的透明度以及央行准确预测通货膨胀的技术等方面考察了中国实行通货膨胀目标制的可行性,得出中国已经初步具备实施该货币制度的条件。并提出更彻底的制度改革将会确保中国成功实施通货膨胀目标制,从而使得宏观经济运行处于稳定的价格水平因而更有效率。     

货币职能的展开与货币独立性的实现 ——理解《资本论》及其手稿货币理论的一个视角

在《资本论》及其手稿中,马克思提出了他的货币理论.他的货币理论的重要内容之一是论释了货币的独立性.马克思通过展开论述货币职能的发展和货币形式的演化而究察了货币在商品经济条件下如何实现独立性存在.他指明,货币的独立性存在是处于资本主义经济运行过程之中的物化的、关系性的独立性.因此,货币的独立性就不是纯粹的独立性,而是相对的独立性.这种相对的独立性对资本主义经济具有重要的意义,一方面促成了资本主义的迅速发展,另一方面也体现出了对资本主义的否定.     

谈工程量清单计价模式下的施工定额

目前,中国普遍实行工程量清单计价模式,＂量＂、＂价＂分离,自主报价;而自主报价的主要依据就是施工定额。通过编制施工定额可以发现施工企业领先于社会平均的优势,找到薄弱环节,从而进一步的提高效益,降低成本。因此,施工定额不仅有利于规范整个建筑市场的行为,同时也有利于施工企业自身的发展。     

结合内燃机车修制改革查定机车检修定额

文章通过对铁路运输企业的内燃机车修制改革的调研。阐述了查定内燃机车检修定额的意义以及确定定额的措施、关系。     

狂人樊建川

他用一辈子的收藏,读懂了一场战争。 当有钱人收藏明清家具、宋元字画的时候,他却在收藏这个民族曾经的苦难和精神。 他把多年经商所得全部砸进＂民间博物馆＂这个无底洞,建起了中国最大的抗战博物馆。在和数以万计的抗战文物默默交流的过程中,他对这场战争有了亲历似的感觉。     

中国采用通货膨胀目标制的条件研究

币值稳定、货币政策工具的独立性、深化的金融系统、中央银行的责任性和透明度是采用通货膨胀目标制需要满足的现实条件.在保持经济增长前提下的币值稳定可以视作我国货币政策的首要目标,它满足了通货膨胀目标制对币值稳定的要求.人民银行货币政策工具独立性的提高、中国金融系统的逐步深化、人民银行责任性和透明度的增强为中国采用通货膨胀目标制准备了现实条件.     

浅谈如何做好工程造价管理过程中的结算审核

竣工结算是工程造价控制的最后一关,是一项细致具体的工作,编制时,不但要认真、细致、不少算、不漏算,还要尊重实际,不多算,不高估冒算。要严格遵守定额计算规则,保持良好的职业道德与自身信誉。要不断学习丰富自己的知识构成。确保＂量＂与＂价＂的准确合理,做好工程结算的审核工作,促使竣工结算的良性循环。     

中央银行独立性、责任性与通货膨胀目标制

近年来不少学者提出,我国货币政策应转向通货膨胀目标制。我国现行的政策实际上正是一种隐性的通货膨胀目标制,20世纪90年代以来所发生的几次通货膨胀偏倚很大程度上是由于央行的独立性不够。鉴于通货膨胀目标制并不能解决当前我国货币政策调控中的问题并可能带来更多的问题,今后货币政策改革应坚持由直接调控向间接调控、由数量型调控向价格型调控的转变思路,在提高央行独立性的同时,增强其责任性并提高货币政策的透明度。     

近年来我国“三角债”问题综述

经济运行中的“三角债”是指企业之间互相拖欠构成三角债务关系。据统计,近年来,我国企业之间互相拖欠已超过1000多亿元,它相当于国营企业定额流动资金的1/5,同期银行贷款的一半左右。可见,“三角债”已经严重到威胁着企业生产经营活动的正常运转。     

临漳县委组织部实行“承诺”制

临漳县委组织部实行“承诺”制李博，爱军，凤英今年以来，临漳县委组织部在开展＂让党委放心、让干部满意、让群众高兴＂活动中，实行了组织部机关＂承诺＂制度。＂承诺＂制主要内容包括两个方面：一是制定了细化、量化的《临漳县委组织部干部守则》，从让党委放心、让干...     

金融控股公司监管的比较研究及中国的选择

由于金融控股公司有风险在其内部传播、信息透明度低以及成员企业不一定能保持独立的决策自主权等情况,因而对金融控股公司进行严格监管很有必要.国外对金融控股公司均有严格的监管,表现在:有完备的监管法律、严格的准入条件、明确的经营管理约束条件以及完善的监管体系.我国对金融控股公司的监管可采取加快立法、实施功能监管、建立有效监管制度等措施.     

Early warning system of finance stress for India

This paper develops a composite Financial Sector Stress Index (FSSI) for the Indian financial system as a whole by combining three sub-indices for currency markets, the banking sector and the stock market, to gauge the level of financial stress in the Indian financial system. Such a continuous-valued index can be used to track the varying magnitude and dynamics of financial stress in the country over time. The FSSI provides an ordinal measure of stress in the financial system. Changes in the FSSI are useful in assessing whether financial stress is rising or falling, and in ascertaining extreme events in the financial system. The paper, then, objectively identifies extreme stress periods in the financial system based on movements of the index. We recognise that such extreme/tail events pose special econometric challenges as they are rare events but with a big impact. Hence, we use a more robust and analytically sound technique of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to identify extreme events in the financial system. Once the extreme stress events are identified, we use a binary dependent variable model (logit model) to estimate the impact of various macroeconomic and financial variables on the probability of extreme stress in the financial system.     

The heterogeneous effect of finance on international trade

Is the impact of financial development on international trade heterogeneous – being positive, negative or null – across manufacturing sectors? And is it dependent on the level of sectoral requirement on external finance for capital need? To examine these questions this article uses a panel trade database on 21 manufacturing sectors in 80 countries between 2000 and 2009. The analysis demonstrates that the effect of financial development on trade is indeed heterogeneous by estimating a coefficient for each sector and showing that the signs and significance levels vary across them. The article also demonstrates that sectors with strong reliance on external finance export higher volume from countries with developed financial system and that financial development reduces trade in industries with low financial dependence level.     

Bank efficiency and industry growth during financial crises

Financial crises pose many problems for growth, and in this time of increasing financial instability it is important to fully understand why this happens. Many papers have analyzed the relationship between growth and a country's level of financial development using private credit, which leads to several unexpected problems. However, very few have used bank efficiency to gauge the development of the financial sector. The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of bank efficiency on value-added growth of industries that were most dependent on external financing during the financial crisis. Specifically, it uses the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to measure the efficiency of the banking sector across countries, according to the empirical strategy offered by Rajan and Zingales (1998). Our main result shows that bank efficiency relaxed credit constraints and increased the growth rate for financially dependent industries during the crisis. This finding shows the great but overlooked importance of bank efficiency in mitigating the negative effects of financial crises on growth for industries that are most dependent on external financing.     

Financial system and technological catching-up: an empirical analysis

This paper explores the role of the financial system in technological catching-up in the expectation that financing mechanisms affect the production and the exports of new or “new to the market” commodities. We have developed indices of related export variety (REV) and of unrelated export variety (UEV) by using the informational entropy function for a sample of 97 countries using NBER & UN trade data for the period 1992–2005. We used these indices sequentially as dependent variables with the bank credit ratio and stock market capitalization ratio as independent variables. In addition, we include the education system, natural resources and four principal component factors characterizing the cost of doing business, political system, quality of governance and the degree of openness of the countries as control variables in our regressions. Our pooled regression models show that the financial system is an important determinant of both types of export variety for all countries but that, for the most successful developers, the banking system and the stock market play different roles, with the former being relatively more appropriate for REV and the latter for UEV. Such specialization of different forms of the financial system seems to confirm that stock markets are likely to be relatively more appropriate to fund the exploratory type of innovations which are required to increase UEV.     

论金融制度与金融体制及经济制度的关系

目前,中国有部分学者在谈到金融制度时,将其与金融体制混为一谈,还有的学者甚至把金融制度与经济制度割裂开来进行分析,这些观点的存在,都是由于没有准确地界定和理解金融制度的含义。金融制度是指有关金融交易的规则、惯例和组织安排,它与金融体制既有联系又有区别,而与经济制度更是紧密相连。     

UK state pension deferral incentives and sustainability

Pay-as-you-go state pension schemes such as that operated in the United Kingdom face growing pressures from the rising old-age dependency ratio and improvements to life expectancies. Alongside compulsory increases in the statutory retirement age, governments have used incentives to encourage workers to postpone voluntarily their exit from employment, deferring their Basic State Pension in exchange for the additional financial reward of an enhanced pension at a later point in time. The impact of pension deferral upon the sustainability of the state pension system is dependent on the interplay of short-term savings from payment delay and increased subsequent longer-term payments to pension recipients. This article presents a model that simulates the financial effect of deferral uptake on the National Insurance Fund over a 40-year projection under alternative scenarios, including current and revised post-2016 deferral incentives. The findings indicate that the recent change in enhancement rate from 10.4 per cent to 5.8 per cent will significantly impact on state pension sustainability while still providing an incentive to defer. We estimate that any reduction below 4 per cent would result in zero uptake of the deferral option, based on a rational financial choice.     

日本农村金融制度及对我国的启示

日本农村金融制度主要由合作金融、政策性金融及一般商业金融构成,其在运行中具有“需求追随型”的农村金融发展战略、“政府主导型”的农村金融制度供给、合作性金融与政策性金融有效结合、完善的风险防范制度等特有的制度优势。我国农村金融制度应借鉴日本农村金融制度,全面完善农村金融组织体系和扩大服务范围,加快农村合作金融制度的改革进程,合理发挥政府在金融制度创新中的支持作用。     

Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: A Revisionist Approach

In this piece, we highlight some of the salient issues and controversies surrounding the relationship between financial development and economic growth, from both the theoretical and the empirical fronts. We first discuss the controversies on the role of financial development in economic growth; and we then proceed to review the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. We conclude that the relationship between financial development and economic growth is highly complex, and is dependent on a number of factors. Hence, the argument that financial development always leads to economic growth should be taken with extreme caution.     

管制、竞争与民营银行的发展

金融深化的基础是管制与竞争的均衡。计划体制下,国家对金融业一直采取国有控股或国家垄断,因而产生民营银行压抑现象。市场化改革显化了金融制度与经济制度的摩擦,因而民营银行发展在金融深化中具有现实性,也是金融基础设施建设的重要组成。从竞争的角度看,放松民营银行进入壁垒,有助于金融业适度竞争,同时也是国有银行改革的重要组成部分。当然,金融本身的脆弱性说明银行民营化过程也是管制重建的过程。