国际金融危机与中国财政政策设计：功能、目标、力度

本文结合国际金融危机,从理论和实践两方面探讨了中国财政政策设计和实施中存在的一些重要问题。一是从财政政策的维持和纠偏两方面,揭示了财政政策的基本功能,提出财政政策应该分为稳定和再稳定两类政策;二是从财政政策的经济和社会目标两方面,分析了财政政策目标错位问题,提出了财政政策目标应从实现经济增长调整为促进充分就业;三是从财政政策力度计量方面,考察了政府预算账户存在的问题,提出了单独设立稳定账户的设想。     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Australian Information Economy

The more robust computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling has been applied to examine the macro-economic implications of promoting the nascent Australian information economy. The Australian information economy has been trichotomized into marketed or primary information, secondary or non-marketed information and non-information economic sectors using a special algorithm. The trichotomized data base has been used in a CGE framework to examine the macro-economic policy implications of information sector development. In particular, the nurturing, under protection, of the primary information sector as a strategic trade sector provided unanticipated lack-lustre results. Overall, it is the contention of this paper that the CGE analysis of the Australian information economy provides richer policy insights than straightforward input–output analytics.     

PHILLIPS CURVES AND UNEMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS: A CRITIQUE AND A HOLISTIC PERSPECTIVE

Abstract.  The conventional wisdom that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long run implies the compartmentalization of macroeconomics. While one branch of the literature models inflation dynamics and estimates the unemployment rate compatible with inflation stability, another one determines the real economic factors that drive the natural rate of unemployment. In the context of the new Phillips curve, we show that frictional growth, i.e. the interplay between lags and growth, generates an inflation–unemployment trade-off in the long run. We thus argue that a holistic framework, such as the chain reaction theory (CRT), should be used to jointly explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment. A further attraction of the CRT approach is that it provides a synthesis of the traditional structural macroeconometric models and the (structural) vector autoregressions.     

Optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with animal spirits and financial markets

This article presents a macro-finance-interaction model that integrates a NKM with bounded rationality and an agent-based financial market model. We derive four interactive channels between the two sectors where two channels are strictly microfounded. We analyze the impact of the different channels on economic stability and derive optimal (conventional and unconventional) monetary policy rules. We find that coefficients of optimal Taylor rules do not significantly change if financial market stabilization becomes part of the central bank׳s objective function. Additionally, we show that rule-based, backward-looking monetary policy creates huge instabilities if expectations are boundedly rational. Our model is externally validated by showing that it generates fat tailed output growth rates.     

Government Slows Economic Growth

For decades the conventional wisdom maintained that 'public' (a euphemism for government) expenditure was good for economic life Professors Datta and Gordon, of the Universities of Visra-Bhariti (West Bengal) and Southern California, claim that evidence from the Third World suggests how government retards economic growth and depresses living standards Their argument may be technical but their conclusions cannot be misinterpreted even by politicians     

Tightening the Fiscal and Monetary Controls

The Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) is a new departure in post-war policy-making. As David Smith's Briefing Paper shows the ideas behind it are well rooted in historical experience, but nevertheless it was inevitable that there would be a major element of trial and error in the early years of its use. The experience of 1980-81 however has produced some alarming results. The monetary limits have been drastically exceeded and the PSBR is likely to be far above the original target. There are two possible explanations. Either the control system is gravely defective or the government has deliberately followed the kind of short-term discretionary policies (and has indulged in the kind of ad hoc interventionism) which the strategy was expressly designed to avoid. We believe that both explanations are true. It is also probable that they reinforced each other. The first year of the strategy was likely to be the year of greatest strain. It involved a highly ambitious attempt to reduce inflation at a time when cost pressures from wages and higher energy prices were particularly strong. The strains rapidly revealed the defects in the control system. Since the government was alarmed at the short-term consequences of its policies, it chose to make a virtue of necessity and in effect suspended its commitment to the control of sterling M3. It is possible to look back at 1980 and to say that, in the event, the government's loss of control over its policies was justified as statesmanlike flexibility. But there always appear to be good reasons for sacrificing long-term objectives for short-term expediency. The MTFS was intended to avoid the chronic tendency to accept the easy option. It is essential that in 1981 the commitment to the MTFS should be re-established and that it should be reinforced, as appears to be necessary, by a system of indicators and controls to ensure that the errors of 1980 are not repeated. Otherwise there is a serious risk that the hard-won gains in the fight against inflation will be lost in the economic upturn. In the first part of this Viewpoint we examine what happened to fiscal and monetary policy in 1980 and discuss the general lines that policy should follow in 1981-82. We conclude that in order to get fiscal policy back on course the authorities should aim for a PSBR of £10 bn in 1981-82. In the second part we discuss in more detail the reasons why monetary policy went so badly astray in 1980, focusing particularly on the role of the Bank of England. We argue that just as ‘dirty floating’ (i.e. the pursuit of exchange rate objectives) may threaten the monetary targets, so ‘dirty monetarism’ (i.e. the pursuit of interest rate objectives) may prove an even greater threat. We conclude that the discretionary activities of the Bank of England contributed to the excessive monetary growth in 1980, and that it is necessary to ensure that in future the Bank should conduct its policy on a non-discretionary basis.     

On Long-term Forecasting of Social Security: A Robustness Analysis

In this paper we present a macro-economic demographic growth modelhaving a special focus on social security. It is designed to study the variability of responses of the system in presence of risks and uncertainties. Here we analyze the robustness of the model towards uncertainties in parameterspecifications, introduced by ARCH-M models with the incorporation ofintervention processes. The parameters varied are labor force participationrates (one of the key sources of uncertainty in the social security policydebate), and the parameters of the production function (the key source ofuncertainty in any long-run economic analysis). The sensitivity analysisfocuses on two variables: assets of the private pension system and thebalance of the public `Pay As You Go' pension system. Special attentionis given to convergence properties of the macro-economic model.     

How does interest rate policy affect inflation? A simple general equilibrium model with the interest rate as the policy instrument

This paper analyses the connection between the assumptions often made on the utility functions of economic agents when general equilibrium is considered. Concretely, we analyse the effect of certain assumptions regarding the elasticity of marginal utility for both the existence of equilibrium and, assuming equilibrium exists, for the effect that raising the nominal interest rate has on the equilibrium inflation rate. Typical macroeconomic wisdom states that an increase in the interest rate will decrease inflation, and this seems to have been the basis for real-life macroeconomic policy in several countries. However, this wisdom is based on models in which the money supply, and not the interest rate, is the policy instrument. Using a very simple general equilibrium model of intertemporal consumption, this paper finds sufficient conditions for the negative relationship to hold (and for it not to hold) in the short run, when monetary policy is characterised by a given nominal interest rate. Above all, it is shown how the relative risk aversion characteristics that are assumed of the economic agents are important.     

Defining efficient policies in a general equilibrium model: a multi-objective approach

Macroeconomic policy makers are typically concerned with several indicators of economic performance. We thus propose to tackle the design of macroeconomic policy using Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. More specifically, we employ Multi-objective Programming (MP) to seek so-called efficient policies. The MP approach is combined with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We chose use of a CGE model since it has the dual advantage of being consistent with standard economic theory while allowing one to measure the effect(s) of a specific policy with real data. Applying the proposed methodology to Spain (via the 1995 Social Accounting Matrix) we first quantified the trade-offs between two specific policy objectives: growth and inflation, when designing fiscal policy. We then constructed a frontier of efficient policies involving real growth and inflation. In doing so, we found that policy in 1995 Spain displayed some degree of inefficiency with respect to these two policy objectives. We then offer two sets of policy recommendations that, ostensibly, could have helped Spain at the time. The first deals with efficiency independent of the importance given to both growth and inflation by policy makers (we label this set: general policy recommendations). A second set depends on which policy objective is seen as more important by policy makers: increasing growth or controlling inflation (we label this one: objective-specific recommendations).     

Do Homeless Shelter Conditions Determine Shelter Population? The Case of the Dinkins Deluge

We study why families enter and leave homeless shelters. After 2 years of decline, the number of homeless families in New York City's shelter system began rising again in summer 1990 and continued to rise until it hit an all-time record high in summer 1993. The conventional wisdom is that a flood of new families were attracted into shelters by the Dinkins administration's aggressive policy of placing homeless families into subsidized housing. We test the conventional wisdom and reject it. Better prospects of subsidized housing increase flows into the shelter system, but this effect is not nearly large enough to offset the first order shelter effect—taking families out of the shelters reduces the number of families in them. Why did the shelter population grow after Spring 1990? A major part of the reason is that the city responded to conventional wisdom and slowed placement into subsidized housing. Other major factors were the 1990–92 recession, falling real welfare benefits and more NYCHA applications, and greater use of more attractive Tier II shelters instead of hotels.     

中国房地产业的泡沫分析

从1991年开始我国经济进入了一个高速、平稳增长的周期,在1998年2002年,以住宅建设为主的房地产业,在抵消亚洲金融危机影响、推动国民经济增长方面起到了积极的作用.但同时房地产业的兴起也引起了房屋价格的持续上升,尽管国家出台了旨在抑制投资的宏观调控政策,且效果已经显现,但房产价格与土地价格仍然继续上涨,且各地差异较大,部分地区出现了经济泡沫现象.到底应该如何判断中国房地产市场中的泡沫现象,本文将从概念分析入手,结合反映中国房地产市场表现的一些指标进行对比,对目前的房地产市场进行一些判断和分析.     

The Environmental Outcome of Emissions-intensive Economic Growth: A Critical Look at Official Growth Projections for Sweden up to the Year 2000

Implications for carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides emissions from the Swedish government's medium-term economic projections are assessed, considering Sweden's environmental goals. Data from the first environmental accounting matrix of Sweden are exploited within the framework of the interindustry model to give emission multipliers for various components of aggregate demand. In view of these emission multipliers, it is evident that the outlined macro-economic development does not conform with Sweden's environmental goals. The oil price and the structural changes assumed in the economic projections stress still further the need for strong environmental policy measures to attain the emission goals. The allocation of total expenditure is shown here to be a critical factor for bringing down the emissions to accepted levels.     

Recent developments in French economic planning

Conclusions French planning seems to have had a very real effect on the economy in its early years. Industrialists' expectations were raised and new ideas were disseminated in a subtle way, and not merely because people believed the numerical values of published forecasts. In the early 1960s the idea of a consensus was extended beyond the need for greater private investment and the plan became the focus for a national debate on priorities. This exercise was valid and effective in a period of fast and accelerating growth but later the authorities chose instead to impose their own priorities, which included turning away from planning at the industrial level. This was partly because the underlying techniques of traditional French planning were seriously flawed in an open economy, but it probably also represented ideological preferences. However the consultative mechanisms continued to exist through the 1970s, though largely restricted to the macro-economic sphere. The 7th Plan generated a serious and powerful debate about responses to the recession but this was ignored by the authorities. Somewhat surprisingly, the reduced circumstances of planning did not affect the respect for its institutions in the eyes of other social actors: unions and business.¹⁰ In calling for a restoration of planning, the Socialists were therefore responding to a real need in a society with very limited channels for dialogue between social partners who nevertheless were forced to confront one another in the macro-economic sphere. But at the time of writing it looks as if an opportunity has been lost to carry out a detailed multi-scenario reflection on medium term economic policy.     

On the sequencing of regional integration: General considerations and an application to Asia

This paper challenges conventional wisdom regarding the sequencing of regional integration, where it is supposed that trade integration should come first, financial integration second, monetary integration third, and political integration fourth. In particular, it questions whether this conventional wisdom is applicable to Asia.     

PRICE STABILITY AND THE ECB'S MONETARY POLICY STRATEGY*

Abstract.  This paper focuses on the price stability objective within the framework of the single monetary policy strategy. It starts by reviewing what this objective, which is common to all central banks, means. Second, this paper focuses exclusively on the anchoring of short- to medium-term inflation expectations (Part 2). Several measures show that this anchoring is effective. A 'two-pillar' small structural macro-economic model framework is used to analyze the impact that this anchoring of expectations has on the determination of the short- to medium-term inflation rate. From this point of view, observed inflation in the euro area seems to be in line with the theory and the ECB's action seems to be very effective. Third, we focus on the other aspect of monetary stability: the degree of price-level uncertainty and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the medium to long term. Even though this assessment is more difficult than it is in the short to medium term, since we only have a track record covering 6 years, various indicators from the theoretical analysis paint a fairly reassuring picture of the effectiveness of the device used by the ECB.     

FDI与区域经济增长——基于西安高新技术产业开发区数据的计量检验

论文以西安高新技术产业开发区实际外商直接投资与其经济增长的关系为对象,分别考察了实际外商直接投资对营业收入、出口创汇和国内固定资产投资等主要宏观变量增长的影响.在此基础上,对外商直接投资与西安高新技术产业开发区的主要宏观数据进行格兰杰因果性检验.最后提出扩大利用外资规模,提高利用外资水平,促进经济增长的具体建议.     

A Test of U. S. National Economic Policy in the Post-World War II Period

Abstract . This inquiry is an effort to evaluate the macroeconomic performance of the United States economy in the period after the close of World War II in terms of the macroeconomic goals to which national economic policy supposedly had been directed. That is, whether policy achieved full employment, price stability or an adequate rate of growth. Insofar as key indicators can be used as a basis for judgment—and there is, as yet, no scientific basis for measuring how far that reliance can be chanced—it would appear that policy was least successful in attaining full employment with price stability, or full employment, or price stability. In certain infrequent periods, growth seems to have occurred. But was its rate “adequate?” And did it result from policy? Analysis by key indicators may not tell us much, if anything; but it helps to delineate an approach toward policy-monitoring researchers need to cultivate.     

towards relevant economic doctrines

In the second of two articles, Sir Alfred Sherman, advisor to Conservative leaders in the 1970s and 1980s and a founder of the Centre for Policy Studies, continues his review of post-war economic policy and calls for a new tableau economique that would identify the contradictions in economic policy.     

On the role of policy interventions in structural change and economic development: The case of postwar Japan

In this paper, we study the structural change occurring in Japan's post-World War II era of rapid economic growth. We use a two-sector neoclassical growth model with government policies to analyze the evolution of the Japanese economy in this period and to assess the role of such policies. Our model is able to replicate the empirical behavior of the main macroeconomic variables. Three findings emerge from our analysis. First, neither price and investment subsidies to the agricultural sector, nor industrial policy plays a crucial role in the rapid postwar growth. Second, had there existed a labor migration barrier, the negative long-run level effect on output would have been substantial. Finally, TFP in non-agricultural sector is mostly responsible for the rapid growth of Japan in the post-war period.     

IMF and economic reform in developing countries

In this paper we assess the IMF approach to economic reform in developing countries. The impact of IMF program participation on economic growth has been evaluated empirically in a cross-country literature, with little evidence of IMF programs having been successful. This suggests that a fresh approach is in order. However, the cross-country approach is unlikely to provide a sound basis for drawing clear conclusions, so we review IMF programs from a different perspective, involving a broader literature on development strategy. In particular, it is widely accepted that a common characteristic of IMF programs is a high degree of policy rigidity. This is in contrast with studies which hold that unleashing an economy's growth potential hinges on a set of well-targeted policy interventions aimed at removing country-specific binding constraints. The process of locating constraints that bind involves growth diagnostics and policy trialing. This approach maintains that not all distortions are equally important and, by extension, not all policy reforms. From this point of view, IMF programs based on a list of standard conditionalities will not accomplish much. But policy trialing is more relevant to actors and entities with a broader, and more microeconomic, focus such as national policymakers and the World Bank. It is in choices among competing projects and programs that trial and error is most likely to be necessary. Nevertheless, reforms of the IMF such as the “streamlining initiative” should start from a good understanding of the reasons for adherence to policy orthodoxy. We discuss underlying institutional and organizational reasons for policy rigidity and consider some suggested reforms.