Investment scaling up and the role of government

This article studies the fiscal and welfare implications of a scaling up of public investment when the government is subject to inefficiencies on the spending and on the tax collection side. In our simulations, the scaling up of public investments results in higher long-run output and consumption levels but requires a fiscal stabilization package in order to preserve fiscal sustainability. The effects on consumers’ welfare after the fiscal adjustment are nontrivial. Our welfare analysis shows that consumers’ welfare is increased when the government smooths the fiscal adjustment via higher borrowing and not through an increase in taxation. Moreover, the comparison between several stabilization packages via tax adjustment shows that higher welfare is achieved when the government relies mostly on taxation of capital as this allows higher levels of consumption. Lower fiscal costs that do not undermine fiscal sustainability can however be achieved if the government manages to reduce inefficiency in tax collection. Finally, we consider a change in the trade regime that causes a decline in revenues. We find that the higher fiscal burden required to preserve fiscal sustainability would completely wipe out the welfare gain of higher public investments.     

Investment and employment with unlimited labor: The role of aggregate demand

While the rate of growth of ouput has been rapid in many LDC's in the post-World War II period, the rate of growth of employment has been disappointing. This paper argues that the reason may lie in a lack of aggregate effective demand. It is pointed out that the main works in the field (such as those of Arthur Lewis and Dale Jorgenson) basically just assumed there could be no shortage of aggregate demand. A one-sector model, fitted to Malaysiandata, is used to quantify the argument.     

陆资入台的过程、现状、作用和障碍探析

随着中国经济的迅速崛起和整体实力的大幅提升,海峡两岸经济关系取得重大发展,但也存在有失衡与不对称现象。除大陆对台出口受到严格管制与对台贸易存在巨额逆差外,台湾当局一直不允许大陆企业到台湾投资,两岸经贸处在＂间接、单向＂的不对称状态。2009年7月1日,台湾当局正式开放192项陆资入台,开启了两岸双向投资的全新时代。短期看,虽然陆资入台面临不少困难和问题而难有大的发展,但这毕竟是两岸投资格局实现由＂间接、单向＂向＂直接、双向＂转变的关键一跳。本文讨论了陆资入台的历程、现状、作用以及障碍等诸多问题,最后提出了促进陆资入台的若干政策建议。     

投资项目财务评价指标释疑

内部收益率法与净现值法假定同一项目、同一时期内产生的现金流入会产生不同的再投资收益率,这种不切实际的假设容易导致择优决策的失误。同时,在需多期投资支出的项目分析中,目前计算方法下的内部收益率不能如实地反映项目的真实收益率。本文创立的分界贴现率、稳健收益率可帮助我们分别解决这两方面的问题。     

Modelling creative destruction: Technological diffusion and industrial structure change to 2050

Future disruptive, pervasive technologies will have important consequences for industrial structure, economic growth and the environment. Drawing on theories of technological diffusion, industrial evolution and long-term technological change this paper explores the effect of the development and diffusion of two future pervasive technologies on five industrial sectors in three regions during the 21st century in terms of their effect on economic structural change. Through semi-structured interviews with over 100 experts in the two technologies, the paper quantifies the effects of future biotechnologies and nanotechnologies on the industrial structure of the EU, USA and China in 2020 and 2050. The paper finds that as a result of the development and diffusion of future biotechnologies and nanotechnologies, some industries grow whilst others decline and some new ones emerge. The evidence suggests that the effect is different across countries and time; whereas the experts commonly believe that effect of the technologies on the industrial structure of the EU and US is likely to be similar, the effect in China is considered to be less by 2020 but the same as in the EU and US by 2050. This finding has important implications for the location of production, economic growth and energy demand in the future.     

Women returning to paid employment

Using data from the 1975/76 National Training Survey, this paper investigates some aspects of women's working lives. An attempt is made to control for life-cycle effects in order to investigate the extent to which the pattern of women's work histories has changed in younger cohorts. Particular attention is paid to the phenomenon of returning to the labour market after a period of withdrawal. This return is often accompanied by a phase of part-time employment and evidence is presented to suggest that there is widespread mismatching between a woman's training and the skill requirements of the job to which she returns. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the findings.     

新加坡对华投资的回顾与展望

本文回顾新加坡对华投资经历的四个发展阶段,分析新加坡对华投资的主要特点。提出我国要通过发挥两国政府双边合作联合委员会的作用,进一步优化我国外商投资环境,以吸引更多的新加坡对华投资。     

中国对印度直接投资的动因分析

近年来,中国经济的高速发展已成为全球关注的焦点,然而经济发展所带来的中国国内市场趋于饱和及自然资源不足等问题,又迫使中国不得不将部分产业转移出去。印度与中国地理相邻,国情相似,文化相通,加上印度对外开放才刚刚开始,外资政策逐步放宽,使印度成为一个蕴藏着巨大潜力的国家。这就为中国对外投资提供了一个良好、便利的场所。本文从市场寻求、资源寻求、技术寻求及规避贸易壁垒四个角度,分析了中国对印度直接投资的动因。     

投资、投资效率与投资制度:文献视角的探讨

本文从文献角度对投资相关研究进行了概括性地描述与讨论,将现有的研究概括为研究视角、研究方法和投资环境等几个方面,着重分析了投资计量模型发展的内在逻辑关系和以我国为对象的转轨经济投资研究.鉴于目前对投资制度理论研究较少,论文探讨性地分析了利用演进博弈分析转轨投资制度的可能性,并对CES生产函数特征进行了解析,说明了借用其对转轨投资制度效率进行实证分析的可能性.     

构建政府投融资审计机制

政府投资作为政府弥补市场缺陷的重要工具,在推动国民经济协调发展与经济均衡增长方面扮演着极为重要的角色。但是,由于体制上及投资项目自身固有的原因,政府投资在效率性与安全性方面存在着许多不尽人决之处,投资模式仍以粗放型为主,为提高政府投资的效率,防范政府投资风险,客观需要建立一套健全完善的投资审计机制。     

加快发展风险投资促进河南高新技术产业化进程

知识经济的一个重要特征,就是高新技术的产业化。要发展高科技产业,实现“科教兴国”、“科教兴豫”战略,不仅要建立高新技术开发和知识、技术创新体系,更重要的是建立支持高新技术成果商品化、产业化和高技术企业发展的风险投资体制。对大量的社会调查得出河南高新技术企业的融资渠道不畅的原因;找出河南高新技术产业的潜在投资主体;并对加快发展河南风险投资和高新技术产业提出了对策。     

ICT and employment generation: evidence from Turkish manufacturing

This study is said to be the first attempt in exploring the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) capital on employment generation/destruction in Turkish manufacturing industry by using labour demand estimation framework. The analysis is based on firm-level data, which includes all firms employing 20 or more employees in Turkish manufacturing for the period 2003–2013. Our findings based on system GMM estimations show that ICT has employment-enhancing effects in Turkish manufacturing. Moreover, our results provide the evidence that tangible ICT capital has stronger employment generation impact than that of intangible ICT capital in medium- and low-tech industries.     

上市融资:加快农业产业化发展的有效手段

利用证券市场的融资功能,加大对农业产业化的投入,是加快农业发展的有效途径之一。本文以江苏为例,认为做好龙头企业上市工作关键要积极推动龙头企业实施资产重组和资本经营战略,加快龙头企业转机建制步伐,促使各类社会资本更快更好地向龙头企业集聚,实现农业产业化跨越式发展。     

析招投标与实施环境对投资控制的协同作用

投资是为了取得未来或预期的收益而进行资金投入的经济行为，招投标对投资控制具有积极的作用。但是，当业主消极实施招标工作时，其投资控制作用减弱。当招标投标受权力寻租活动影响时，招投标形式对工程造价失控起到掩盖作用，对此，行之有效的反腐措施是增加企业权力部门的全面透明度。     

Spillovers from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau Investment and from Other Foreign Investment in Chinese Industries

In its analysis of the impact of foreign investment on China's productivity, this article develops two empirical models: one using labor productivity and the other using total factor productivity (TFP). Using cross-provincial data on Chinese industries for 1993, 1994, and 1997 to regress the empirical models, it is concluded that the impact of investment differed depending on its source, with that from these overseas Chinese enterprises contributing to the spillover effect in regions with a high technology gap, whereas that from other foreign enterprises tending to improve productivity and TFP primarily in regions with a low technology gap. (JEL D24 , F13 , F15 , L60 )     

How important is employment protection legislation for Foreign Direct Investment flows in Central and Eastern European countries?1

In this article we investigate empirically the importance of labour market conditions and in particular the role of employment protection legislation as determinants of bilateral Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We find that FDI flows are significantly higher in countries with relatively low unit labour costs. We also find that employment protection legislation does not exert a statistically significant impact on FDI flows. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that transition economies attract FDI via low production costs whereas indirect costs related to the rigidity of the labour market are less relevant.     

International oligopoly,barriers to outsourcing and domestic employment

In this paper we analyze the impact of barriers to outsourcing on domestic employment in an oligopolistic context. We show that although an outsourcing tax makes domestic labour cheaper, its employment effect is ambiguous due to strategic considerations. Analyzing international policy interdependence, we also show that, although a unilateral tax (subsidy) by a country must raise its domestic employment, this may be counterproductive in a Nash policy equilibrium. Finally, both a credit crisis and increased product differentiation tend to worsen the employment effects of an outsourcing tax. Our central findings are robust to both Bertrand and Cournot modes of competition.     

Does accessibility to local public employment agencies matter? Answers from a French quasi-experiment

We question whether accessibility to local public employment agencies impacts exits from unemployment. We deal with the potential endogeneity of the residential location of jobseekers by using the unanticipated creation of a new agency in the French region of Lyon as a quasi-natural experiment. We use exhaustive and geo-located individual data on jobseekers and local public employment agencies. Contrary to past evidence based on aggregated data, we find no evidence that jobseekers with improved accessibility to the local public employment services experience an improvement of their probability of exiting unemployment. We however find evidence of transitory organizational effects. These findings strongly question the costly strategy of a fine distribution of local public employment agencies across the territory while suggesting that institutional issues are key.