CO2 emissions,economic growth,energy consumption,trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis

This paper investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for a panel of new EU member and candidate countries over the period 1992–2010. Panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality tests are used to investigate this relationship. The main results provide evidence supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Hence, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between environment and income for the sampled countries. The results also indicate that there is a short-run unidirectional panel causality running from energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization to carbon emissions, from GDP to energy consumption, from GDP, energy consumption and urbanization to trade openness, from urbanization to GDP, and from urbanization to trade openness. As for the long-run causal relationship, the results indicate that estimated coefficients of lagged error correction term in the carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, GDP, and trade openness equations are statistically significant, implying that these four variables could play an important role in adjustment process as the system departs from the long-run equilibrium.     

A contribution of foreign direct investment,clean energy,trade openness,carbon emissions and economic growth to energy demand in UAE

This paper investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment, clean energy, trade openness, carbon emissions and economic growth in case of UAE covering the period of 1975Q1–2011Q4. We have tested the unit properties of variables in the presence of structural breaks. The ARDL bounds testing approach is applied to examine the cointegration by accommodating structural breaks stemming in the series. The VECM Granger causality approach is also applied to investigate the causal relationship between the variables. Our empirical findings confirm the existence of cointegration between the series. We find that foreign direct investment, trade openness and carbon emissions decline energy demand. Economic growth and clean energy have positive impact on energy consumption.     

The impact of financial development,income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy

This paper examines the long-run equilibrium and the existence and direction of a causal relationship between carbon emissions, financial development, economic growth, energy consumption and trade openness for India. Our main contribution to the literature on Indian studies lies in the investigation of the causes of carbon emissions by taking into account the role of financial development and using single country data. The results suggest that there is evidence on the long-run and causal relationships between carbon emissions, financial development, income, energy use and trade openness. Financial development has a long-run positive impact on carbon emissions, implying that financial development improves environmental degradation. Moreover, Granger causality test indicates a long-run unidirectional causality running from financial development to carbon emissions and energy use. The evidence suggests that financial system should take into account the environment aspect in their current operations. The results of this study may be of great importance for policy and decision-makers in order to develop energy policies for India that contribute to the curbing of carbon emissions while preserving economic growth.     

Energy consumption,carbon emissions,and economic growth in India: Evidence from directed acyclic graphs

This study investigates the temporal linkages among economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions for India during the period 1970–2008 using recently developed methods of out-of-sample Granger causality tests and directed acyclic graphs (DAG). Building on the data-driven DAG representation, we uncover the contemporaneous causal patterns between economic activities and environmental pollutants, which is first documented in the literature and could further improve the investigation of the dynamic linkage pattern. The results show that energy consumption uni-directionally Granger causes carbon emissions and economic growth, while there is a bidirectional causality between carbon emissions and economic growth. We also find that trade openness is one of the important determinants of energy consumption and carbon emissions. Some important policy implications are also discussed.     

中国温室气体排放、能源消费与经济增长的实证分析

本文利用时间序列计量经济方法检验了中国的CO2排放量与能源消费、GDP、对外贸易、资本形成、人口等变量之间的关系。研究发现变量之间存在长期的均衡关系。长期内变量之间存在着双向因果关系;而在短期内,存在着GDP、能源消费、对外贸易、资本形成到CO2排放量等四种单向因果关系,其中CO2排放、能源消费、GDP和资本形成在各自的因果关系中所起的作用尤为显著。实证结果也发现能源消费对CO2排放具有加速影响趋势,对外贸易对CO2排放的影响也十分关键,而且变量之间存在着一个稳定的CO2排放方程。相应的政策建议是,中国应该实施低碳经济战略,加快低碳转型,发展低碳经济。     

Energy consumption,income, and carbon emissions in the United States

This paper investigates the effect of energy consumption and output on carbon emissions in the United States. Earlier research focused on testing the existence and/or shape of an environmental Kuznets curve without taking energy consumption into account. We investigate the Granger causality relationship between income, energy consumption, and carbon emissions, including labor and gross fixed capital formation in the model. We find that income does not Granger cause carbon emissions in the US in the long run, but energy use does. Hence, income growth by itself may not become a solution to environmental problems.     

Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member

This paper investigates the long run Granger causality relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in Turkey, controlling for gross fixed capital formation and labor. The most interesting result is that carbon emissions seem to Granger cause energy consumption, but the reverse is not true. The lack of a long run causal link between income and emissions may be implying that to reduce carbon emissions, Turkey does not have to forgo economic growth.     

Pollution,energy use,GDP and trade: estimating the long-run relationship for Vietnam

Since the beginning of economic reform in the 1980s and, in particular, with its openness to international trade accelerating since the 1990s, the Vietnamese economy has registered significant growth. At the same time, energy consumption and the level of pollution in Vietnam has also increased. This article aims to focus on the link between openness to trade and pollution in Vietnam. Due to lack of data, very few existing studies have focused on Vietnam. Using annual data from1980 to 2011 and employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, based on an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model, we find that there is a statistically significant long-run relationship amongst pollution, openness to trade, energy consumption and real national income in Vietnam. This conclusion continues to hold when the possibility of a structural break in the relationship is allowed for using the Gregory-Hansen approach to cointegration. Analysis of the cointegration relationship suggests that, in response to any exogenous shock to the system, adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium is very fast.     

The Potential Impact of Sino-Korean Bilateral Trade on Economic Growth and the Environment: A CGE Model Analysis

A consensus is still to be reached regarding the relationship between trade, growth, and the environment in either the existing theoretical models or previous empirical analyses. By using a Sino-Korean case study, we expect this work to contribute to the theoretical and empirical knowledge of the relationship between trade, growth and the environment. In this paper, four types of simulation are executed by applying a Sino-Korea CGE model. The results reveal that an increasing volume of bilateral trade boosts the real GDP at a decreasing rate. Different degrees in the volume of increase of bilateral trade produce welfare gains for Chinese households, i.e. more household spending. Welfare increases at a decreasing rate when the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently, while in Korea there are welfare losses (less household consumption) when the bilateral trade target becomes increasingly stringent. Moreover, the investment gains in the economy tend to rise more sharply as the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently in China. The investment tends to decrease at a proportional rate when the target bilateral trade volume becomes more stringent and the changes in the gross investment become more significant in Korea. In addition, the aggregate production shows a tendency to increase at a proportional rate with a more stringent target bilateral trade volume and when there are considerable changes in gross production. Furthermore, the impact of most production sectors can benefit China, but have a negative impact on Korea. Meantime, the simulations highlight that import growth increases carbon emissions at a decreasing rate, and export growth increases carbon emissions. According to our policy findings, policy makers should be advised to consider the third trade policy (Scenario c), which maintains a reasonable economic growth but at the expense of investment and welfare.     

CO2 emissions,output, energy consumption,and trade in Tunisia

This article contributes to the literature by investigating the dynamic relationship between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, output (GDP), energy consumption, and trade using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the ARDL methodology for Tunisia over the period 1971–2008. The empirical results reveal the existence of two causal long-run relationships between the variables. In the short-run, there are three unidirectional Granger causality relationships, which run from GDP, squared GDP and energy consumption to CO₂ emissions. To check the stability in the parameter of the selected model, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ were used. The results also provide important policy implications.     

我国财政支出波动对居民消费波动的影响研究

利用1981—2010年我国27个省级地区的面板数据,在加入居民收入波动、金融发展水平、贸易开放度三个控制变量的基础上,综合运用固定效应模型及工具变量估计法,对我国财政支出波动与居民消费波动的关系进行探讨,结果表明:居民消费波动受财政支出波动的影响显著,两者呈正相关关系;金融发展水平及贸易开放度有助于减轻居民消费的波动程度;居民收入波动对消费波动的影响不显著。     

The growth effect of trade openness on African countries: Evidence from using an instrumental variable panel smooth transition model

This paper assesses the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Africa by accounting for the heterogeneity of African countries. In addition, the paper contributes to the literature on trade openness and economic growth nexus by applying the instrumental variable panel smooth transition regression, a methodology that accounts for nonlinearity and endogeneity in the relationship between the two variables. The results of the empirical analysis reveal that the investment ratio is a channel through which trade openness affects economic growth in the African continent. In addition, the relationship between trade openness and economic growth varies according to the degree of a country's development in Africa. The study finds a negative relationship between openness and growth in low-income countries. Conversely, for upper-income countries, the coefficients of trade indicators are positive and statistically significant. The results indicate that African countries are not homogeneous, especially concerning trade openness and economic growth nexus.     

中国工业部门碳排放与GDP脱钩因素影响力分析

基于Tapio脱钩模型,对2000．2008年间中国工业部门碳排放与能耗脱钩、能耗与GDP脱钩对碳排放与GDP脱钩影响力进行了实证研究。结果表明：中国工业部门在实现碳排放与GDP脱钩上取得比较显著的成绩;能耗脱钩影响力均值为正,能耗受经济驱动较小对碳排放与GDP脱钩做出了相当的贡献;排放脱钩影响力均值为负,碳排放受能耗驱动力较为明显,对工业部门碳排放与GDP脱钩产生了负向影响。为使中国工业部门在碳排放与GDP脱钩上取得更显著的效果,应加大能耗与GDP脱钩力度,同时政府应大力支持碳捕集利用与封存等低碳和零碳技术研发与应用,逐步改善碳排放与能耗整体挂钩的态势。     

Is there a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions?

We analyze the effect of fuel mix, model specification, and the level of development on the presence and size of a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions. The results indicate that fuel mix, the specification for income, and the level of economic development affect conclusions about whether there is a turning point in the relationship between economic activity and energy use and carbon emissions. Including fuel shares generally reduces the size of a turning point that is estimated from a panel that includes observations from both OECD and Non-OECD nations. But this result varies according to the level of development. For OECD nations, there is limited support for a turning point in the relationship between income and per capita energy use and/or carbon emissions. For non-OECD nations, there is no turning point in the relationship between income and either energy use or carbon emissions. Instead, the relationship is positive. Together, the results indicate that forecasters and policy makers should not depend on a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use or carbon emissions to reduce either.     

我国外汇储备规模与经济开放度的实证研究

本文以国际收支平衡表中的经常账户和金融账户为基础,分别从实体经济层面的贸易开放度和金融层面的投资开放度来界定我国的经济开放度指标,运用两变量VAR系统方法对1982～2004年我国外汇储备规模与经济开放度指标之间的关系进行实证研究,结果显示二者具有显著的正向协整关系,相对投资开放度而言,贸易开放度对外汇储备规模具有较大的影响.     

Do oil consumption and economic growth intensify environmental degradation? Evidence from developing economies

The purpose of this article is to empirically investigate the impact of economic growth, oil consumption, financial development, industrialization and trade openness on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, particularly in relation to major oil-consuming developing economies. This study utilizes annual data from 1980 to 2012 on a panel of 18 developing countries. Our empirical analysis employs robust panel cointegration tests and a vector error correction model (VECM) framework. The empirical results of three panel cointegration models suggest that there is a significant long-run equilibrium relationship among economic growth, oil consumption, financial development, industrialization, trade openness and CO₂ emissions. Similarly, results from VECMs show that economic growth, oil consumption and industrialization have a short-run dynamic bidirectional feedback relationship with CO₂ emissions. Long-run (error-correction term) bidirectional causalities are found among CO₂ emissions, economic growth, oil consumption, financial development and trade openness. Our results confirm that economic growth and oil consumption have a significant impact on the CO₂ emissions in developing economies. Hence, the findings of this study have important policy implications for mitigating CO₂ emissions and offering sustainable economic development.     

全球价值链嵌入、出口技术升级与制造业增加值隐含碳——来自浙江细分行业的经验证据

以外向型经济和制造业大省浙江为例,运用投入产出法测度2001—2017年浙江制造29个细分行业出口增加值隐含碳,并运用面板数据模型研究了嵌入全球价值链、出口技术升级对出口增加值隐含碳的影响。研究表明,浙江省制造业出口产品单位贸易利益的二氧化碳排放成本即出口增加值隐含碳大幅度下降。出口技术升级、贸易开放显著地降低了浙江省制造业出口增加值隐含碳,能源强度、人力资本、参与国际垂直分工等因素导致了出口增加值隐含碳的增长。交叉项检验表明,研发强度较高的行业出口技术升级会显著降低出口增加值隐含碳,外商直接投资、煤炭消耗占比、资本劳动占比较高的行业出口技术升级会导致出口增加值隐含碳的增加。     

我国出口贸易与碳排放关系的实证研究

在我国出口贸易中碳排放量现状分析的基础上,采用计量分析方法通过对二氧化碳排放量与经济发展水平、出口贸易额一系列相关性进行验证,并对我国碳排放进行库兹涅茨曲线检验与分析,深入探讨我国出口贸易与碳排放的相互关系,揭示出我国出口贸易发展中存在的问题,并提出相应对策建议。     

封闭经济约束与城乡居民 消费过度敏感性变动

封闭经济约束为解释居民消费过度敏感性提供了来自经济一体化的新视角。本文利用1985-2007年中国省际城乡面板数据考察省级居民消费过度敏感性变动，以验证封闭经济约束假说是否适用于中国。本文研究发现：省级居民消费存在过度敏感性，但剥离全国层面消费和收入总体波动后，敏感性会稳健地明显降低。消费过度敏感性的变动表明，省级居民消费过度敏感性主要归因于中国与其他国家之间国际商品和金融市场相对于各省份之间国内商品和金融市场的更封闭。为有效提振居民消费需求以扩大内需，亟须通过提高金融和商品贸易开放水平并拓展贸易开放的广度和深度来纠正居民消费过度敏感性，尽快完善金融体系运行机制、加快转变对外贸易发展方式、落实贸易市场多元化和产品多样化战略、降低内陆地区对外贸易的物流成本是重要政策手段。     

A multivariate time series analysis of energy consumption,real output and pollutant emissions in a developing economy: New evidence from Nepal

Mountain economies will have to play a central role in attaining the global pursuit of green economic growth as crucial bearers of ecosystems goods and services. However, these economies are not adequately represented in the development policy debates in spite of their fundamental importance towards global sustainable development. This study examines the inter relationships between energy consumption, output and carbon emissions in a developing mountainous economy using an augmented Vector Autoregression model. Time-series data over the period 1975–2013 is studied applying a multivariate framework using population and gross fixed capital formation as additional variables for Nepal. Testing for Granger causality between integrated variables based on asymptotic theory reveals a long-run unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from carbon emissions to GDP. We suggest that the government of Nepal can address energy poverty by accelerating the adoption energy conservation policies such as rationing energy consumption and energy efficiency improvements to narrow the energy supply-demand gap. The opportunity to promote the uptake of decentralised off-grid renewable technologies in remote areas and the large scale development of hydropower at the national level also needs to be prioritized. Our results remain robust across different estimators and contributes to an emerging literature on the nexus relationships between energy consumption, income and carbon emissions in mountainous developing economies.