Uncertainty shocks and asymmetric dynamics in Korea: a non-linear approach

This study investigates the impact of uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic activity in Korea. For this purpose, a Smooth Transition VAR model is employed to document the state-dependent dynamics of two distinct types of uncertainty shocks, namely, financial market based and news-based. When non-linearity is allowed to play a role in our model, quantitatively very different asymmetric dynamics are observed. Following inflation targeting, the responses tend to be smoother and less pronounced. Our empirical results support the view that the link between uncertainty and macroeconomic activity is clear over both recessions and expansions. Furthermore, the impact of uncertainty shocks is more pronounced when economic activity is depressed especially after shocks originate from the financial market, and not from news-based policy uncertainty in Korea.     

Privatisation and aggregate output: testing for macroeconomic transmission channels

In this paper we examine empirically the impact of privatisation on output in the UK, through macroeconomic transmission channels. While most privatisation studies focus on microeconomic shocks, namely at the firm level, we are interested to see whether a large scale privatisation policy, as the one pursued in the UK in the 1980 and 1990s, had a measurable impact on output. This may contribute to the ex post evaluation of this policy and complement the microeconomic evidence. We use quarterly data from 1979 to 1998 of privatisation proceeds, as our impulse policy variable, and of private consumption, gross fixed capital formation, net government expenditures, as transmission channels, and aggregate output as our final response variable. The econometric methodology is based on Structural Vector Auto-regressive models and Impulse Response Functions. Non-stationarity and cointegration properties of the time series have also been considered. We find that privatisation shocks do not have an impact in the consumption-output model, but have a moderate and transitory impact in the investment and the public expenditures models. Such positive demand effects, however, have not been completely matched by supply side effects, and, consequently, privatisation in the UK did not contribute to a sustained economic growth.

Predicting U.S. recessions through a combination of probability forecasts

Recently De Luca and Carfora (Statistica e Applicazioni 8:123–134, 2010) have proposed a novel model for binary time series, the Binomial Heterogenous Autoregressive (BHAR) model, successfully applied for the analysis of the quarterly binary time series of U.S. recessions. In this work we want to measure the efficacy of the out-of-sample forecasts of the BHAR model compared to the probit models by Kauppi and Saikkonen (Rev Econ Stat 90:777–791, 2008). Given the substantial indifference of the predictive accuracy between the BHAR and the probit models, a combination of forecasts using the method proposed by Bates and Granger (Oper Res Q 20:451–468, 1969) for probability forecasts is analyzed. We show how the forecasts obtained by the combination between the BHAR model and each of the probit models are superior compared to the forecasts obtained by each single model.     

消费者信心指数与股票市场收益的实证研究

基于行为金融学的视角，研究消费者信心和股票市场收益的互动关系，结果发现消费者信心指数与殷市收益具有较强的相关性。利用脉）辛响应和方差分解分析消费者信心与股市收益之间的互动关系，结果表明，消费者信心指数能预测一部分收益，股市收益与消费者信心指数间的冲击具有不对称性。     

Oil shocks,US economic uncertainty,and emerging stock markets

This paper investigates the impacts of oil price shocks and US economic uncertainty on emerging equity markets within a structural VAR model. I find that both precautionary oil demand and US economic uncertainty shocks have significant negative effects on emerging stock returns, whereas aggregate demand shocks cause a sustained rise of the returns. In particular, the direct effects of oil shocks on emerging stock returns are amplified by the endogenous response of US economic uncertainty. Variance decomposition analysis shows that oil market fundamentals and US economic uncertainty are an important determinant of emerging equity returns, accounting for 35% and 24% of their long-term variations, respectively. The heterogeneous impacts of structural shocks on individual emerging markets, however, suggest that a well-diversified portfolio can be obtainable.     

Tax policy and investment in major U.S. macroeconomic econometric models

In an analysis of six major U.S. quarterly models, the predicted results of tax incentives for investment are found to vary widely. Differences are traced to critical specifications in investment equations. When appropriately revised investment equations are reestimated the role of tax parameters is much reduced, particularly among the high outliers, and the variance among the models is narrowed decidedly. Full model simulations of revised equations suggest that current and proposed incentives such as the investment tax credit and accelerated depreciation are not cost-effective. Increases in investment approximate only half of static tax losses, and budget deficits widen.     

Asymmetric effects of uncertainty shocks: Normal times and financial disruptions are different

We examine whether the response of the euro area economy to uncertainty shocks depends on financial conditions. We find strong evidence that uncertainty shocks have much more powerful effects on key macroeconomic variables in episodes marked by financial distress than in normal times. We also document that the recovery of economic activity following an adverse uncertainty shock is state dependent: it is gradual in normal times, but displays a more accelerated rebound when the shock hits during financial distress, reflecting monetary accommodation provided by the central bank. These findings are based on a non-linear data-driven model that accounts for regime switching and time-varying volatility. Our findings imply that whether financial markets are calm or distressed matters when it comes to the appropriate policy responses to uncertainty shocks.     

Macroeconomic policy uncertainty shocks on the Chinese economy: a GVAR analysis

This article studies the spillovers of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) from developed economies to China in terms of the source, extent and persistence by estimating a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model with both financial and trade variables acting as the transmission channels. Our findings confirm the existence of international transmissions of policy uncertainty, while the patterns differ markedly. The US EPU appears to be the most significant cause of the fall of export, industrial production, equity price and exchange rate, meanwhile, the EU EPU is also to be blamed for the depreciation of RMB. In contrast to industrial production, which shows the largest negative impact, Chinese inflation increases to a relatively smaller extent with the EPU shocks ranking as the US, Japanese and the EU. Regardless of the minor impact on a long-term interest rate, the short-term interest rate in China reacts positively to the European and US EPU shocks. Despite the independent national monetary policies, EPUs from the EU, Japan and the UK can decrease the Chinese monetary aggregate. In summary, the Chinese economy responds the most to the US EPU, especially to its inflation expectation disagreement component, whereas it responds the least to the UK EPU.     

基于不确定性视角的PPI与CPI传导关系真相研究

通货膨胀背景下,有关PPI和CPI之间的价格传导关系成为备受关注的热点问题,但现有文献均局限于PPI和CPI均值意义上的格兰杰因果性讨论。事实上,无论从宏观理论出发还是从计量理论出发,PPI和CPI衡量的通胀率的不确定性(inflation uncertainty)及不确定性间的相关性更应引起学术界以及货币当局的关注。鉴于此,我们借鉴Hafner and Herwartz(2004)提出的二阶矩意义的格兰杰因果检验方法,构建Wald形式的统计量对CPI和PPI不确定性因果关系进行检验,发现从通胀不确定性视角来看,PPI和CPI是相互传导的,从传导模式来看,无论以PPIMG还是以CGP"I充当"PPI,均只能在短期影响CPI,而CPI对它们的影响在长短期都是一贯的。由此推断,CPI到PPI方向构成了二者不确定性传导的"系统性"路径,通胀治理须从需求方考虑。     

Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and stock returns in China

This paper examines the interdependence of China's policy uncertainty, the global oil market and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows that a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market‐specific demand significantly raise China's economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index, the interdependence between these variables has been rising since 2003 as China's influence in the oil market has increased. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the US is smaller and has been largely flat over time.     

Risk,uncertainty, and leverage

Using mostly theoretical models and traditional risk/uncertainty measures (VIX index, panic, precaution, scary bad news, etc.), the current literature tries to clarify the risk/uncertainty-deleveraging pattern. The findings are not sufficient to explain the dynamic empirical relationship between modern risk/uncertainty indicators and leverage. We fill this gap in the literature by using US quarterly data, from 1985:1 to 2018:4, Granger causality tests, and a structural vector autoregression model. We find that commercial bank leverage rises when geopolitical risk and macroeconomic, policy, and equity uncertainty increase. Client-based business relationships of banks and high government borrowing from banks during crises periods are responsible for this relationship. We find that the leverage of broker-dealers and shadow banks declines when Chicago risk and macroeconomic, policy, financial, and equity uncertainty increase. We argue that the vulnerability of broker-dealers and shadow banks to the risk/uncertainty of the entire market system is responsible for this relationship.     

Geopolitical risks and recessions in a panel of advanced economies: evidence from over a century of data

This paper uses a panel of 17 advanced countries over the annual period of 1899–2013, to analyze for the first time, the role played by geopolitical risks in predicting recessions. After controlling for other standard predictors based on a logit model, we find that while aggregate geopolitical risks do not have any predictive ability, geopolitical acts enhance the probability of future recessions, with geopolitical threats reducing the same.     

Emerging market sovereign spreads,global financial conditions and U.S. macroeconomic news

We investigate the impact of global financial conditions, U.S. macroeconomic news and domestic fundamentals on the evolution of EMBI spreads for a panel of 18 emerging market (EM) countries using daily data. To this end, we consider not only the conventional panel cointegration procedures but also the recent common correlated effects method to tackle cross-section dependence that may stem from common global shocks such as contagion. The results suggest that the long-run evolution of EMBI spreads depends on global financial conditions, crises contagion and domestic fundamentals proxied by sovereign ratings. The results from panel equilibrium correction models suggest that EMBI spreads respond substantially also to U.S. macroeconomic news and changes in the Federal Reserve's target interest rates. The magnitude and the sign of the effect of the U.S. news, however, crucially depend on the state of the U.S. economy, such as the presence of inflation dominance.     

我国供给和需求冲击的区域差异效应研究——基于结构VAR的分析

本文根据Blanchard and Quah发展的结构VAR技术,将影响中国沿海和内陆地区实际GDP与通货膨胀率的冲击分解为供给和需求冲击。估算结果发现,沿海和内陆地区供给冲击的同步性较高但呈下降趋势,需求冲击的同步性弱于供给冲击,不过呈提高趋势,但由于区域协调而降低了其短期内的同步性。根据累积脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解结果,实际GDP和价格水平波动的绝大部分分别来自于供给和需求冲击,需求层面的区域协调对缩小区域差距无济于事,反而引致内陆地区的价格波动。各地区对供给和需求冲击反应的差异,使得在宏观调控和区域协调方面产生效率和区域平等、需求管理型宏观政策有效性和区域平等的两难困境。破解之道在于从影响区域反应差异的因素入手,提高内陆地区实际产出对内陆地区正向供给、需求冲击的反应强度和降低沿海需求冲击对内陆地区的负效应。     

Regional output growth and the impact of macroeconomic shocks in Mexico

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between national and regional output growth in Mexico, and the impact of domestic and international shocks on national, regional and state output movements. Our results suggest that there are similarities, but also significant differences, in real output dynamics across the regions and states of Mexico and that it would be wrong to regard the Mexican economy as a homogeneous entity. The results show that real output growth in Mexico and the United States are linked, but there is no common output trend for the two countries. At the regional level, it appears that North and Central Mexico share similar features, but the path of output growth is more distinctive in South Mexico. Overall, our results suggest that assessments of macroeconomic performance, and related discussions of policy, should pay greater attention to the potential diversity in regional performance.     

Exchange rates and asymmetric shocks in small open economies

We study the stabilizing properties of exchange rates in five small open economies during to periods of floating exchange rates and inflation targeting. In the cases of Sweden and Canada, the nominal exchange rates behave in a stabilizing manner. Most exchange rate movements emanate from the exchange rate itself and are hence not responses to fundamental shocks. However, these non-fundamental shocks have only negligible effects on output and inflation. Our findings indicate that exchange rates display some stabilizing properties but can mainly be characterized as disconnected from the rest of the economy. We would like to thank Nils Gottfries and participants at seminars at Uppsala University and the Riksbank for helpful advice and useful comments. Post gratefully acknowledges financial support from Handelsbankens forskningsstiftelser.     

Quantifying the uncertainty of long-term macroeconomic projections

We propose a practical approach to measuring the uncertainty of long-term economic projections. The presented method quantifies the uncertainty of economic variables by using simulations from a multivariate unobserved components model in which variables are formulated as sums of stationary and nonstationary components. The method captures the correlations between both the stationary and nonstationary components of the variables and offers a seamless analysis of short- and long-term uncertainty. Experiments on artificial data demonstrate that, despite its simplicity, the method performs fairly well compared with alternative methods in terms of long-term predictive accuracy and coverage.     

Temporal disaggregation of business dynamics: New evidence for U.S. economy

We provide new disaggregated data and stylized facts on firm dynamics of the U.S economy at establishment level by using a state-space method to transform Census yearly data of entry and exit from 1977 to 2013 into quarterly frequency. We select the most significant determinants of these variables by matching Census data with a new database by Federal Reserve Bank. These determinants are extrapolated by using an unobserved factor model whose loadings are estimated via Principal Component Analysis. Alternative sources and their data are also investigated and discussed. We find that (i) Entry is pro-cyclical, coincident and symmetric; (ii) Exit is lagging with a maximum positive correlation with RGDP at lag 5 and asymmetric along the business cycle; (iii) the standard macroeconometric models estimated on our disaggregated series support the recent theoretical literature.     

Sources of fluctuations in hours worked for Canada,Germany, Japan and the U.S.: a sign restriction VAR approach

This study empirically examines the sources of fluctuations in hours worked in Canada, Germany, Japan and the U.S. It is particularly motivated by Galí’s (1999) VAR study, which demonstrates that a positive technology shock reduces hours worked, at least in the short run. However, in the present study, a technology shock is identified without recourse to Galí’s long-run restriction, which has been subject to active controversy. Furthermore, this study uncovers other important sources of fluctuations in hours worked to reflect the concern, raised by numerous studies, that technology shocks leave most variations in hours worked unexplained. Specifically, there are six shocks underlying our model, and they are identified using a set of sign restrictions. The empirical results confirm that in all four countries, a positive technology shock significantly reduces hours worked. This technology shock, along with labor supply and demand shocks, accounts for most of the short-term variations in hours worked. As the forecasting horizon increases, technology and demand shocks become less important, whereas labor supply shocks contribute to explaining the bulk of long-run variations in hours worked. Finally, the empirical relevance of Galí’s long-run identification restriction is tested and the results are related to those obtained using the sign restriction model.     

Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment: evidence from the U.S. market

This paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm-level capital investment, by not only delving into the long-term investment-uncertainty relation like previous studies, but also analyzing the short-term investment-uncertainty relation for the U.S. market. The empirical investigations show that firms decrease short-term, long-term, and total firm investments when encountering higher economic policy uncertainties. The research also explores the non-linear investment-uncertainty relation based on various theories. Our findings present a U-shaped relationship between short-term, long-term, and total investments and uncertainties. Policy implications are provided from our empirical results.