Are price controls necessarily bad? The case of rice in Vietnam

Most economists' instinctive reaction to price controls is that they are harmful. Its strong enforcement results in shortages and resource misallocation, while weak enforcement often leads to black markets and high transaction costs. Given these instincts, this paper assesses the pros and cons of rice price controls in Vietnam using a multi-sector multi-household general equilibrium model. These price controls fix producer prices and allow government marketing agencies to sell at higher prices and hence are, in part, a revenue raising device. As such, they may be part of an efficient tax mix, particularly so since agricultural incomes and production go untaxed under the formal tax system. It is argued that such controls can act to dampen costly domestic adjustments in the face of volatile world prices. It is shown that this system can be supported as welfare enhancing under conditions currently prevailing in Vietnam.     

Are estimates of labour demand functions mere statistical artefacts?

This paper considers the estimation of putative neoclassical aggregate labour demand functions using constant price value data. Regression results normally find that employment is negatively related to the real wage and that the constant‐output elasticity of employment with respect to the real wage is about ?0.3. This is taken as evidence that unemployment is the result of the real wage being too high, ceteris paribus. This paper shows that these estimates are purely the result of an underlying identity and cannot be interpreted as implying any causal relationship and, as such, they have no policy implications.     

Which way does water flow? An econometric analysis of the global price integration of water stocks

Around US$600 billion of investment is desperately needed to address forecasted huge shortages in water supply globally. A number of worldwide investors – so-called water funds – have started to take up this challenge. For these global water investors, knowledge about the extent of integration between the water sectors of financial markets is highly important. According to international portfolio diversification theory, the less (more) integrated markets are, the more (less) benefits there are from international diversification. In this study, we investigate the extent and manner of interdependence among the US, European and Asian water sector of the equity markets based on Vector Autoregression (VAR), Granger causality and impulse response analyses. We find that world water stock market prices are indeed significantly interdependent although this interdependence varies across time periods. Each market quickly responds to shocks from each other and completes its response within 3 days. Hence, for water investors, international diversification that is undertaken just within the water sector will not be beneficial. The result also implies that there is the risk of crossmarket contagion – that is, price volatility spill over across water sectors of different financial markets, and therefore, water authorities in one market should take cognisance of events in other markets.     

Are price-based capital account regulations effective in developing countries?

In this article, we evaluate the effectiveness of policy measures adopted by Chile and Colombia aiming to mitigate the deleterious effects of pro-cyclical capital flows. In the case of Chile, according to our GMM analysis, capital controls succeeded in reducing net short-term capital flows, but did not affect long-term flows. As far as Colombia is concerned, the regulations were capable of affecting total flows and also long-term ones. In addition, our cointegration models indicate that the regulations did not have a direct effect on the real exchange rate in the Chilean case. Nonetheless, the model used for Colombia did detect a direct impact of the capital controls on the real exchange rate. Therefore, our results do not seem to support the idea that those regulations were easily evaded.     

Empirical issues in the computation of Stone–Lewbel price indexes in censored micro-level demand systems

In this article, we propose an empirical method for the computation of the Stone–Lewbel (SL) price index for product aggregates, when censored samples with zero expenditures are available from household budget surveys. The proposed technique is based on a regression imputation method that takes into account the price dynamics, therefore, allowing to disentangle the role of demographics from the role of prices in computing the SL index. Our simulations seem to indicate that our method is a valuable alternative.     

Firms’ investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty

We investigate the effect of demand and price uncertainty on firms’ planned and realized investment from a panel of manufacturing firms. Uncertainty measures are derived from firms’ own expectations about demand and prices and firm's sales. We find that demand uncertainty at the time of planning depresses planned and subsequent realized investment. Firms do not revise their plans due to demand uncertainty at the time of spending, suggesting that reducing demand uncertainty will only have lagged effects on investment. We do not find any effect of price uncertainty. Our results are consistent with the behaviour of monopolistic firms with irreversible capital.     

Does illiquidity matter in residential properties?

No, it does not, despite the general perception that illiquidity matters in real estate. As expected, our evidence shows that the illiquidity costs for the U.S. residential properties are large. The costs are equivalent to 12% of the total property returns on average, ranging from 9.5% to 29.5% of property prices depending on the illiquidity level and market conditions. However, when amortized by holding periods, monthly illiquidity costs are on average 0.08%, and illiquidity risk does not appear to be priced in residential properties; illiquid properties do not show higher returns than liquid properties. On the contrary, we find evidence of flight-to-quality in bull markets, that is, high-quality illiquid properties are preferred to low-quality liquid properties in buoyant markets. These results are in sharp contrast with those in equities and bonds where flight-to-liquidity has been reported when markets are in stress.     

Are high–frequency traders informed?

Are high–frequency traders (HFTs) informed? To address this question, we examine HFTs' activity in the call auction environment, where speed-related trading is limited and signal processing capacity becomes more relevant. To model the call market, we consider the Kyle (1989) rational expectations framework for strategic trading. The test we propose for detecting informed HFTs in this market assesses potential deviations of the informativeness of HFTs' aggregate (net) demand, from the informativeness of the aggregate demand submitted by the rest of the traders. Data from the Euronext Paris preopening phase indicate that informed HFTs are present in the market just before the opening. Our results provide useful guidance for the assessment of the influence of HFTs’ quotes on price quality, an important issue for market regulators and policy makers.     

Optimal allocation of watershed management cost among different water users

The issue of water scarcity highlights the importance of watershed management. A sound watershed management should make all water users share the incurred cost. This study analyzes the optimal allocation of watershed management cost among different water users. As a consumable, water should be allocated to different users the amounts in which their marginal utilities （MUs） or marginal products （MPs） of water are equal. The value of MUs or MPs equals the water price that the watershed manager charges. When water is simultaneously used as consumable and nonconsumable, the watershed manager produces the quantity of water in which the sum of MUs and/or MPs for the two types of uses equals the marginal cost of water production. Each water user should share the portion of watershed management cost in the percentage that his MU or MP accounts for the sum of MUs and/or MPs. Thus, the price of consumable water does not equal the marginal cost of water production even if there is no public good.     

Does electricity competition work for residential consumers? Evidence from demand models for default and competitive residential electricity services

Journal of Regulatory Economics - Occupational licensing laws can allow professionals to extract rents in the marketplace. In the case of vision services, optometrists have the authority to write...     

Is all domestic water consumption sensitive to price control?

This paper presents a model of residential water demand based on the Stone–Geary utility function, which explicitly considers a threshold of water that is insensitive to price and a quantity that can adapt instantaneously to price changes. First, the threshold is assumed constant, being then allowed to vary according to past levels of consumption, a proxy for households' water-using equipment and habits. A measure of the depreciation rate of habits is derived and the effectiveness of price and non-price conservation measures are compared. The results provide useful policy recommendations for the studied case of Seville (Spain).     

Are school counselors an effective education input?

We exploit within-school variation in counselors and find that one additional counselor reduces student misbehavior and increases boys’ academic achievement by over one percentile point. These effects compare favorably with those of increased teacher quality and smaller class sizes.     

Are experts better than potential users in predicting the uptake of an innovation? Extending the use of the Juster Scale

Are experts or potential users better at predicting the success of a new product? To explore this question we used an eleven-point probability scale, the Juster Scale, to ask various groups of people about their probability of taking up a new product and also their assessment of its chance of its success in the marketplace. Although this type of scale generally performs better than intention scales it tends to over-predict when used in a repertoire market and we examine its performance for a boundary condition of such a market. We also explored the use of the scale as a projective research tool which is a novel application. In this study the product was a new type of charity lottery. The study was undertaken in the month prior to the lottery closing and we subsequently knew the actual outcome. The Juster Scale generally performed poorly as a predictor in this context. The predictions from the experts were no more accurate than those of the general public but none had direct knowledge of an equivalent lottery. This exploratory study concluded that the actual behaviour of a sample of relevant consumers, where the product is available, is better for forecasting than asking for estimates of their potential behaviour, that is, behaviour predicts behaviour better than probabilities of behaviour.     

The effects of price on household demand for food and calories in poor countries: are our databases giving reliable estimates?

Food price policy relies heavily on estimated price elasticities of food demand to help balance the nutritional and economic objectives in poor countries. Economists use either unit values (ratios of household expenditure to quantity purchased) or community prices (enumerated from vendors in local markets) as proxies for market prices when estimating price elasticities with household survey data. Biases are believed to result from using unit values, due to measurement error and quality effects, but evidence on this issue is lacking and even less is known about community prices. This article provides an empirical evidence from Vietnam, which suggests that economists should exercise caution when estimating price elasticities from household surveys. A 14-food demand system is estimated alternatively with unit values or community prices, and the elasticity of calories with respect to rice prices is calculated. This elasticity is more than twice as large (?0.54 versus ?0.22) when community prices are used rather than unit values. Hence, conclusions about the nutritional effects of rice price increases appear sensitive to data choices made by economists. More generally, this discrepancy suggests that the household survey databases commonly used by economists may not provide reliable estimates.     

Are virtual water “flows” in Spanish grain trade consistent with relative water scarcity?

Virtual water adds a new dimension to international trade, and brings along a new perspective about water scarcity and water resource management. Most virtual water literature has focused on quantifying virtual water “flows” and on its application to ensure water and food security. Nevertheless, the analysis of the potential gains from international trade, at least from a water resources perspective, needs to take into account both spatial and temporal variations of blue (groundwater and stream flow) and green (soil moisture) water, as well as the socioeconomic and policy conditions. This paper evaluates whether Spanish international trade with grains is consistent with relative water scarcity. For this purpose, the study estimates the volume and economic value of virtual water “flow” through international grain trade for the period 1997-2005, which includes 3 years with different rainfall levels. The calculations show that Spain is a net virtual water “importer” through international grain trade. The volume of net virtual water “imports” amounts to 3420, 4383 and 8415 million m³ in wet (1997), medium (1999) and dry (2005) years, respectively. Valuing blue water at its shadow price or scarcity value, blue water “exports” oscillate between 0.7 and 34.2 million Euros for a wet and dry year, respectively. Overall, grain trade is apparently consistent with relative water scarcity as net imports increase in dry years. However, the evolution of grain exports, expressed as a variation in quantity and volume, does not match the variations in resource scarcity. A disaggregated crop analysis reveals that there are other factors, such as quality, product specialization or the demand for a standardized product, which also influence trade decisions and are not included in the notion of virtual water. These facts, among others, can therefore create potential distortions in the application of virtual water to the analysis of specific trade patterns. Nevertheless, from a water resources perspective, virtual water can bring important insights across countries for improving water and land management globally, fostering adaptation strategies to climate change and to transboundary resource management.     

China’s competition and the export price strategies of developed countries

This paper analyzes the impact of Chinese competition on developed countries’ export prices. The empirical application is on Italy, one of the main European manufacturing exporters with exports at high risk of competition from China. Our results show that, following China’s entry into the WTO, the price strategies of Italian firms has been affected. While in general the increasing Chinese export competition resulted in an upgrading of products exported, the impact has been different according to the sector and technological level. The incentives to upgrade have been stronger for low technology sectors, where competition is tougher and varieties of products sold lower. To highlight quality differentials, and isolate the effects on the different segments of the distribution of Italy’s export prices, we run quantile regressions. We find that are mainly those products sold at low prices to face a strong pressure to upgrade.     

Are there asymmetries of nonlinearities in UK output?

This paper investigates whether quarterly post-war UK output growth contains either asymmetries or nonlinearities through subjecting the series to a variety of diagnostic testa and by fiting various nonlinear business cycle models. No evidence is uncovered of any form of asymetric or nonlinear departure from the pure random walk with drift model of output.