欧洲中央银行货币政策透明度研究

大多数国家的央行开始摈弃隐秘性传统,其货币政策逐渐走向开放和透明。如何最充分、准确、及时地向公众披露与解释货币政策目标、策略和决策已成为多数国家货币政策操作所面临的首要问题,本文首先对欧洲中央银行在实践中所采用的主要沟通策略和工具进行归纳和介绍,然后将欧洲中央银行与世界其他主要中央银行的信息公开程度进行横向比较,最后就关于提高欧洲中央银行货币政策透明度的相关建议和争议进行评述。     

Commentary. An alternative stability pact for the European Union

This paper proposes an alternative stability and growth pactto the one which accompanied the introduction of the euro inJanuary 1999. The latter is part of the third stage of economicand monetary union and, will govern the economic policies ofthe member countries which have joined the single currency andstrongly constrain the policies of those who do not join. Thealternative proposed in this paper is a Full Employment, Growthand Stability Pact and would have a number of features, themost important of which is the creation of new institutionalarrangements, including the creation of an investment bank.     

Which Vested Interests Do Central Banks Really Serve? Understanding Central Bank Policy Since the Global Financial Crisis

Inspired by Thorstein Veblen’s ideas, I analyze the behavior of central banks from the perspective of how institutions are captured by vested interests. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, there has been a shift in the conduct of monetary policy. Much like the behavior of asset holders themselves, who, in times of crisis, sought to trade off lower returns with more stable asset values, monetary policy changed from a de facto policy of stabilizing rentier income to one of preserving asset prices or rentier wealth. I analyze this particularly through the lenses of what happened with quantitative easing (QE) in the US, which coincided with a collapse of real interest rates, while asset prices were stabilized. This can also be seen in the way the banking sector was supported by QE where the market for mortgage-backed securities was sustained even as it actually meant a lower profitability for the overall U.S. banking sector during the QE interventions.     

澳中中央银行独立性:比较与借鉴

澳大利亚中央银行经过几十年的改革和发展,其独立性已有很大进展,这一点已为学们的研究所证实。建立市场经济体制的中国迫切需要一个独立的中央银行,为此需借鉴包括澳大利亚在内的西方发达国家的经验,增强和完善中国中央银行的独立性。     

我国的央行票据发行与公开市场操作

央行票据是由中国人民银行发行、用以对冲外汇占款的短期债券,是我国实施公开市场操作的主要工具.它是我国外汇大量持续流入、国债市场不发达、央行资产负债结构不合理的产物.央行票据这种替代性操作工具和国债相比,利息成本的承担机制不同.央行票据的利息支付构成了新的货币扩张因素,呈现“反对冲”效应,增大通胀压力,其对冲操作效率也不断降低.与发达国家相比,我国目前还不存在成熟的公开市场操作,未来我国应努力建设多层次发达的国债市场,以提高公开市场操作的效率和货币政策的有效性.     

Optimal Degrees of Transparency in Monetary Policymaking

According to most academics and policymakers, transparency in monetary policymaking is desirable. I examine this proposition in a small theoretical model emphasizing forward–looking private sector behavior. Transparency makes it easier for price setters to infer the central bank's future policy intentions, thereby making current inflation more responsive to policy actions. This induces the central bank to pay more attention to inflation rather than output gap stabilization. Then, transparency may be disadvantageous. It may actually be a policy–distorting straitjacket if the central bank enjoys low–inflation credibility, and there is need for active monetary stabilization policy.
JEL classification : E 42; E 52; F 58     

Do the ECB's introductory statements help predict monetary policy? Evidence from a tone analysis

In this paper, we examine whether a tone shock derived from European Central Bank communication helps predict ECB monetary policy decisions. To this purpose, we first use a bag-of-words approach and several dictionaries on the ECB's Introductory Statements to derive a measure of tone. Next, we orthogonalise the tone measure on the latest data available to market participants to compute the tone shock. Finally, we relate the tone shock to future ECB monetary policy decisions. We find that the tone shock is significantly and positively related to future ECB monetary policy decisions, even when controlling for market expectations of monetary policy and the Governing Council's inter-meeting communication. Further extensions show that the predictive ability of the tone shock is robust to (i) the normalization of the tone measure, (ii) alternative market expectations of monetary policy, and (iii) the horizon of macroeconomic variables used in the Taylor-type monetary policy rule. These findings highlight an additional channel through which ECB communication improves monetary policy predictability, suggesting that the ECB may have private information that it communicates through its Introductory Statements.     

Exchange rates,central bank news and the zero lower bound*

The zero lower bound (ZLB) may restrict the responsiveness of exchange rates to news. A proxy for central bank communication is added as a determinant in a model of exchange rate movements. Two reserve currencies, the British pound and euro, and two currencies of small open economies, the Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, are examined. Reserve currencies are more vulnerable to the ZLB constraint, while the currencies of small open economies become more responsive to foreign central bank announcements. Certain unconventional monetary policy announcements were found to significantly impact exchange rates at the ZLB.     

Does unconventional monetary policy affect inequality? Evidence from Japan

Inequality has been largely ignored in the literature and practice of monetary policy, but is gaining more attention recently. Here, we exclusively focus on the impact of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on inequality. We look at how the recent UMP in Japan affected inequality, using household survey data. Our vector auto regression (VAR) results show that UMP widened income inequality after 2008Q3 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) resumed its zero-interest rate policy and reinstated UMP. This is largely due to the portfolio channel. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to empirically analyse the distributional impact of UMP. Japan’s extensive experience with UMP may hold important policy implications for other countries.     

基于MCI缺口的货币政策操作风险测度研究

由于受短期目标的约束以及中央银行对宏观经济形势的认识偏差,若货币政策工具及调控时机选择不当,或政策信息披露不及时等,都有可能误导公众预期和增加市场的不确定性,从而引致货币政策操作风险。通过构建包含货币供应量的货币条件指数(MCI),并考察其实际值与均衡值之间的离差状况,结果表明MCI及其缺口可用于间接测度货币政策操作风险的大小,而所得到的风险指数可作为宏观调控的参考指标。     

中央银行在应对经济危机中的作用及局限——马克思的论述及其当代价值

马克思以英格兰银行为例,深入地研究了中央银行在应对资本主义经济危机中的作用,其主要思想可以概括为三个方面.一是中央银行具有国家货币管理机构和信用枢纽的双重性质,这决定了中央银行有应对经济危机的内在职能.二是存在两种货币危机,即货币资本运动引发的\"特种危机\"和\"任何危机的一个阶段\".针对\"特种危机\",中央银行的应对措施既...     

当前我国央行货币政策走向分析

今年以来,固定资产投资继续快速增长,货币信贷居高不下,我国经济过热的风险仍然存在.央行在将近4个月的时间里先后两次提高存款准备金率,两次提高利率以抑制过快增长的货币信贷.本次货币政策的目的将限于通过抑制信贷过快膨胀来平滑经济增长,其理想效果是防热而不会致冷."稳健"仍会是央行的货币政策基调.继续加息不是央行的最优选择,高固定资产投资、高经济增长速度仍将是今后较长一段时期内我国经济发展的特点.     

货币政策透明度的趋势、制度安排和宏观经济环境

近年来,透明度已经成为货币政策主要的特征之一,提高货币政策的透明度正在演变为一个国际趋势。根据Geraats(2009)使用Dicer和Eichengreen(2009)收集的数据测算的E-G指数,发现世界范围内货币政策的透明度已经取得了显著提高,但实践中呈现出执行较高行政透明度和经济透明度,而实行较低程序透明度和政策透明度的变化趋势;同时,还讨论了与透明度变化趋势相适应的制度安排及宏观经济环境。     

浅析稳健的货币政策

2011年12月举行的中共中央政治局会议定调2012年继续实行稳健的货币政策。理解稳健的货币政策,分析其实行效果已成为当务之急。归纳了稳健货币政策的演化史,分析了该货币政策的特征,并总结了其实行效果与面临的挑战。稳健货币政策的运行方式是逆向操作的相机抉择。该货币政策难以对CPI进行精确的控制,难以有效抑制经济过快发展。为提高货币政策的实施效果,央行应当增加基准利率调整频率,并减少对央行票据的依赖。