An empirical study of China＇s regional R＆D knowledge spillovers based on GWR

The present paper employs technique of geographical weighted regression （GWR） to make an empirical study of China＇s R＆D knowledge spillovers at city level. Conventional regression analysis can only produce ＂average＂ and ＂global＂ parameter estimates rather than ＂local＂ parameter estimates which vary over space in some spatial systems. Geographically weighted regression （GWR）, on the other hand, is a simple but useful new technique for the analysis of spatial non-stationarity. Results show that there is a significant difference between OLS and GWR in estimating the parameters of R＆D knowledge production, and that the relationships between level of regional innovation activities and various factors show considerable spatial variability.     

Assessing the Normative Legitimacy of Investment Arbitration: The EU’s Investment Court System

The inclusion of an investment chapter in the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has encountered significant opposition, especially in relation to Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS). In this context, the EU has proposed several changes to the traditional procedures, including the creation of an investment court. The need to reform ISDS has long been recognised, but the key question remains: What is required for such a dispute settlement mechanism to have legitimate authority? Drawing from insights in legal theory and political philosophy, we examine what could be adequate criteria for the normative legitimacy of ISDS. We argue that ISDS can only be minimally legitimate if there are sufficient procedural safeguards to ensure fair access to the proceedings and equal consideration of their interest for all those affected by investment tribunals’ or courts’ decisions. Furthermore, we emphasize the need to look beyond what potential beneficial and adverse consequences of ISDS are, and explain that the appointment of the judges by the state parties and the reintroduction of some control of the state parties over dispute settlement outcomes are not sufficient to guarantee the normative legitimacy of ISDS.     

Can China’s meat imports be sustainable? A case study of mad cow disease

Rising demand and constrained domestic production have challenged the meat consumption in China. To fill the gap between domestic demand and supply, China imports an increasing volume of meat products from the international market. However, outbreaks of animal diseases can jeopardize China’s ability to meet its need for consumable meat. This article investigates the impact of animal disease outbreaks on the sustainability of China’s meat imports by using the episode of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in the United States in 2003 as a case study. Our results show that China’s meat imports are becoming more diversified and sustainable. The outbreak did have significant negative impacts on beef imports from the United States. During the epidemic, not only was China able to increase beef imports from other major exporters, but it also increased imports of other animal products such as edible offal and pork. Our findings indicate that international trade can serve as a reliable source to meet China’s soaring meat consumption.     

An empirical study on contractual heterogeneity within the firm: the ‘vertical integration–franchise contracts’ mix

This paper tests a discrete choice model on the mix of franchised and company owned outlets (contractual heterogeneity) within the firm. This is often explained by the existing literature as due to heterogeneous characteristics of the outlets. However, correspondence between outlets and contracts characteristics is not often observed in reality. An explanation is proposed which suggests that contract mixing is driven by the contractual choice of both principal and agents, and that heterogeneous agents will choose contracts that match their characteristics. This hypothesis is supported by econometric results, based on outlet level microdata collected by means of a survey of UK firms.     

An anarchist’s reflection on the political economy of everyday life

James Scott has written a detailed ethnography on the lives of the peoples of upland Southeast Asia who choose to escape oppressive government by living at the edge of their civilization. To the political economist the fascinating story told by Scott provides useful narratives in need of analytical exposition. There remains in this work a “plea for mechanism”; the mechanisms that enable social cooperation to emerge among individuals living outside the realm of state control. Social cooperation outside the formal rules of governance nevertheless require “rules” of social intercourse and techniques of “enforcement” to ensure the disciplining of opportunistic behavior.     

Policy tolerance of economic crime? An empirical analysis of the effect of counterfeiting on Italian trade

Some governments seem ambivalent towards economic crime because, on the one hand, there are adverse effects on competition and legal businesses; on the other hand, there are benefits through (shadow) employment and income in less-developed areas, as well as benefits through relations of political clientage. We focus on counterfeiting and its economic effects on trade in Italy during the economic crisis. Using a newly built regional dataset and a dynamic panel model, we find evidence of the dual impact of counterfeiting. The production (and exchange) of fake goods depresses the legal market that relies on intellectual property rights but supports shadow-economic activities for the benefit of illegal workers, criminal organisations, and political clientele. We show that the negative effects outweigh the positive effects.     

An assessment on the quality of China’s preliminary data of quarterly GDP announcements

This article examines the quality of China’s preliminary announcements of the quarterly GDP. We modify the tests for unbiasedness and efficiency by incorporating the Fourier approximation to capture the effect of the state of the economy, and employing the Kiefer, Vogelsang and Bunzel (KVB) approach, developed by KVB in 2000 to reconstruct the tests to improve the finite sample properties. The results show that: (1) there is no enough evidence to support that the preliminary and first revised data are unbiased and efficient; (2) there exist systematic errors related to the state of the economy, and hence information about the state of the economy was not incorporated into the GDP data. Furthermore, we find that there is a possibility that these systematic errors associated with the stages of the business cycle may offset each other, and there is also a possibility that there exist offsetting errors in the underlying components of GDP.     

An experimental study of the impact of competition for Other People’s Money: the portfolio manager market

In this paper we experimentally investigate the impact that competing for funds has on the risk-taking behavior of laboratory portfolio managers compensated through an option-like scheme according to which the manager receives (most of) the compensation only for returns in excess of pre-specified strike price. We find that such a competitive environment and contractual arrangement lead, both in theory and in the lab, to inefficient risk taking behavior on the part of portfolio managers. We then study various policy interventions, obtained by manipulating various aspects of the competitive environment and the contractual arrangement, e.g., the Transparency of the contracts offered, the Risk Sharing component in the contract linking portfolio managers to investors, etc. While all these interventions would induce portfolio managers, at equilibrium, to efficiently invest funds in safe assets, we find that, in the lab, Transparency is most effective in incentivising managers to do so. Finally, we document a behavioral “Other People’s Money” effect in the lab, where portfolio managers tend to invest the funds of their investors in a more risky manner than their Own Money, even when it is not in either the investors’ or the managers’ interest to do so.     

How does spatial crowdedness affect patenting performance in industrial clusters? An empirical study on the moderated U-shaped relationship

ABSTRACT

Prior literature suggests the coexistence of the positive and the negative externalities of agglomeration. However, with a focus on the production system side of industrial cluster, the extant studies less explore the root of the above mixed findings from the knowledge system side of clusters. Thus, this study aims to establish a coherent theoretical framework to reconcile the mixed findings on the relationship between spatial crowdedness and cluster-level patenting performance. Specifically, we expect a U-shaped relationship between spatial crowdedness and cluster-level patenting performance. From a perspective of knowledge based view, we argue that the interplay of two underlying mechanisms, i.e. knowledge spillover exploitation and knowledge safeguarding, will lead to this U-shaped relationship. We also propose the moderation effect of technological complexity on this U-shaped relationship. Using a longitudinal dataset from a sample of 171 industrial clusters in China during the period of 2011–2015, we find strong supports to our hypotheses.     

Does mixed-frequency investor sentiment impact stock returns? Based on the empirical study of MIDAS regression model

We examine whether mixed-frequency investor sentiment affects stock returns. In line with recent evidence from China, we find that the aggregate effect and the individual effect of mixed-frequency investor sentiment are statistically significant, and mixed-frequency investor sentiment is more important than the low-frequency one. Moreover, mixed-frequency investor sentiment, which is mixed by high-frequency data, can be more important than the market premium.     

Impact of asset price fluctuation on China’s monetary policy: An empirical analysis based on quarterly data, 1994–2006

The strenuous fluctuation in global asset price in recent years has had a profound impact on the economic and social development of every country. An empirical analysis indicates that asset prices (the stock price index and real estate prices) are important endogenous variables affecting the interest rate reaction function of central bank monetary policy. With expected inflation as a given, each one percentage point rise in output gap will cause a 0.79 percentage point reduction in interest rates by the central bank and each one percentage point rise in real estate price will result in a 2.2 percentage point rise in interest rates. The stock price index does have an influence on the trends in monetary policy, but it is less salient than the impact of housing prices. We also show that monetary policy that employs asset price as an endogenous variable increases the central bank’s control in seeking to attain its objectives. Therefore we suggest that the central bank should make asset price fluctuation an endogenous variable and incorporate it into its forward-looking interest rate rule, in order to facilitate the healthy development of China’s markets for real estate, stocks and derivatives, energy and bulk commodities and maintain rapid, smooth, sustainable and harmonious economic development.     

Are EU trade preferences really effective? An impact evaluation assessment of the Southern Mediterranean Countries’ case

This work assesses the causal impact of the EU trade preferences granted to the Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs) in agriculture and fishery products over the period 2004–2014. It overcomes some of the weaknesses of previous assessments and presents several methodological improvements. Firstly, it relies on a continuous treatment – i.e. preferential margins – to capture the ‘average treatment effect’ of trade preferences, rather than on a binary treatment based on dummy variables. Secondly, it uses highly disaggregated data at sectoral level in order to evaluate properly the preferential treatment. Thirdly, it applies a non-parametric matching technique for continuous treatment – specifically, a generalized propensity score matching. The results show, on the one hand, that the impact of the EU preferences is positive and significant on SMCs trade and is better evaluated using impact evaluation techniques. On the other hand, they demonstrate that the relationship between preferences and trade flows is asymmetric and warn against the risk of providing too much of a good thing. These results raise important issues for policy-making. First, they demonstrate that raising the level of preferences is not the solution to foster the SMCs trade towards EU. Second, that the policy-makers should put more emphasis on complementary factors other than trade barriers.     

Bringing Balance to the Force? A Comparative Analysis of Institutionalisation Processes in the G20’s Mutual Assessment Process and the EU’s Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure

Events from 2008 onwards have bought the old consensus on the sound money and finance paradigm (the ‘Great Moderation’) into bold relief. One manifestation of this crisis of belief is the increased focus on global imbalances, institutionally reflected in the creation of the Mutual Assessment Process (MAP) at the G20 level and subsequently the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP) at the European Union (EU) level. Comparing both newcomers to international macroeconomic policy coordination, this article analyses four features that shape (and we show, institutionalise) the process of paradigm contestation: presence, position, promotion and plausibility. We argue that although initially the G20’s MAP scored higher in terms of presence, position and promotion, it is the EU’s MIP, which heralds a more substantial shift in macroeconomic management. Collectively, both indicate the increased prominence of global imbalances as the subject of inter- or supranational management, and a broadening of the notion of necessary or legitimate economic governance.     

Can China's new rural pension scheme alleviate the relative poverty of rural households? An empirical analysis based on the PSM-DID method

Based on five-period panel data from the China Family Panel Studies 2010–2018, this paper uses the propensity score matching difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) method to comprehensively evaluate the effects of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) on alleviating rural households' relative poverty. At the same time, based on the theory of sustainable livelihoods of rural households, the mediating effects model is applied to analyse the mechanism of rural households' livelihood capital. The results of the study are as follows. (1) The NRPS helps alleviate the relative poverty of rural households. (2) The livelihood capital of rural households is an important mechanism for the NRPS to alleviate the relative poverty of rural households, and social capital, financial capital, and human capital all play a part in the mediating effect. (3) The results of the heterogeneity tests based on the stage of rural households' participation in the NRPS and the region of participation in the NRPS indicate that the governance effects of the NRPS on rural households' relative poverty are more significant among households in the contributory stage and the central and western regions. Additionally, the results are supported by robustness tests, such as replacing the dependent variable and the PSM method. The findings of this paper have important implications for the establishment of a long-term mechanism to address relative poverty and the construction of a more efficient and inclusive rural social pension insurance system in China and other developing countries.     

Does computer-based training impact maintenance costs and actions? An empirical analysis of the US Navy’s AN/SQQ-89(v) sonar system

The United States Navy decided in the early 2000s to replace traditional, instructor-led schoolhouse training with computer-based training (CBT). While employing CBT may produce gains in knowledge acquisition and lower costs for repetitive, low-skill work, there is a lack of empirical evidence whether these benefits exist for more highly skilled Navy operations. Anecdotal evidence suggests that CBT failed to sufficiently prepare new sailors for sophisticated systems’ maintenance and operation. To determine the validity of this evidence, we examine how CBT has affected the AN/SQQ-89(v) sonar. We empirically analyse whether the Navy’s introduction of CBT significantly altered fleet maintenance costs, actions and training requirements, by assembling a unique data set of ships, locations, personnel, maintenance costs and maintenance actions. Controlling for the Navy’s plan to man the system, the number of authorized billets and the number of personnel on board, we find that CBT adversely impacts costs, actions and maintenance hours for the sonar system.     

Why don’t you trade only four days a year? An empirical study into the abnormal returns of quarters first trading day

In this research I examined a calendar anomaly that occurs at the beginning of each quarter. Through an examination of 34 years of daily and annual returns for the S&P500 and 13 years of returns for popular ETFs, I have demonstrated the existence of the First Day of Quarter (FDQ) effect. By trading only four days a year from the beginning of 2000 until the end of 2013, an investor could have gained 113.1% of the S&P500 returns for that period, while being exposed to stock risk for only 56 days. Moreover, for 11 of those 14 years of trading, the FDQ was responsible for more than 10% of the annual returns. Only for two years since 2000 (2001, 2005) has the FDQ yielded a negative return. The biggest beneficiary of the FDQ is the financial sector, which for the last 13 years of investing has been non-fertile, showing −6.12% total return. Investing only at the beginning of each quarter for a total of 52 days would have yielded a return of 40.17%. The next beneficiary of the FDQ is the technological sector. The 82.5% of total return gained in this sector over the last 13 years could have been gained in only 52 days of trading.     

Is group selection necessary? An alternative interpretation of homogeneous Middleman groups: Comments on Janet Landa’s paper

This article critiques the efforts by Janet Landa, David Sloan Wilson and others to use group selection paradigms to explain the success of homogenous middlemen groups (HMGs). It argues that group selection theory cannot explain the conflicts of interests that arise within HMGs or why they dissolve in certain occasions. Landa’s earlier explanations, which stressed the combination of genetic (kinship) and social bonds in the creation of trust and cooperation in the extension of credit and the creation of local public goods, better predicts both the strength and weaknesses of HMGs.      

Does the Entrepreneurship of the Parents Affect the Opportunities of their Offspring’s Entrepreneurship? Empirical Analysis Based on the CGSS 2010–2013 Data

The whole society is paying close attention to “entrepreneurship,” which urges researchers to find an explanatory perspective relatively independent and with causality on the intergenerational transfer of entrepreneurship. Based on the data of the Chinese General Social Survey (short for CGSS) during the years 2010–2013, this paper analyzes how parents’ entrepreneurship affects the probability of their offspring’s entrepreneurship, and the results show that compared with the offspring of parents who did not start their own business, those whose parents did are more likely to choose to start their own business. In view of historical facts such as the “lay-off wave” during China’s transformation into a market economy, we use “the annual number of unemployed back to work,” a provincial-level indicator, in the 1990s as an instrumental variable to correct possible endogenous problems. We find that parents’ entrepreneurship has significant positive effects on the probability of their offspring’s entrepreneurship, which may result from the informal transfer of human capital and wealth from parents to their offspring.     

Two Models of the Relationship Between Money and Sovereignty: An Interpretation Based on John R. Commons’s Institutionalism

We present a theoretical analysis of monetary sovereignty based on John R. Commons’s main works. Commons wrote extensively on money and sovereignty, but he did not provide an explicit analysis of their relationship. Through the reconstruction and interpretation of his work, we propose two models of the relationship between money and sovereignty. In the first model, monetary sovereignty is owned by private banks and is potentially in competition with political sovereignty. In the second model, money can be viewed as an agent of political sovereignty, which shares some similarities with the law as an institution of sovereignty in the modern state.