Modelling movie attendance with seasonality: evidence from China

High-frequency data improves the timeliness of movie attendance forecasts, but also results in the issue of seasonality. The main objective of this article is to build and test a novel movie attendance model that considers seasonality. Based on the Bass model, we combine an intertemporal demand shift pattern and the binary elements of seasonality – weekends and holidays – and propose a model called DISBM. We chose a sample of 58 movies released in China in 2013 to evaluate our proposal. The empirical results suggest that DISBM has better performance than other seasonal models. We demonstrate that the intertemporal demand shift results in weekend fluctuations, while the extra demand causes the seasonal holiday effect. The intent of this study is to better understand various movie attendance diffusions given different seasonal effects, in order to develop corresponding marketing strategies.     

Fighting as a profit maximizing strategy in the National Hockey League: more evidence

This article estimates the effect of fighting in hockey games on attendance in the National Hockey League (NHL) over the 1997–1998 through 2009–2010 seasons. After estimating a system of equations developed from a model of a profit-maximizing club owner, it was found that fighting had a small negative effect on attendance implying that encouraging fighting on the ice is not a profit-maximizing strategy. The results are quite robust when incorporating capacity constraints on attendance and exogenous ticket pricing. Other factors that determine club performance and market size were found to significantly affect attendance. The empirical results also suggest that NHL club owners are maximizing profit.     

College football attendance: a panel study of the Football Bowl Subdivision

Panel data with an instrumented real ticket price are used to estimate a regular season game-day attendance and per cent of capacity regression equations. Better team performance, whether short term (season wins), intermediate term (bowls games in last 10 years) or long term (lifetime winning percentage), higher undergraduate enrolment, traditional rivalries and video coverage increase per cent of capacity used. Poor weather (more rain or cloud cover), higher travel costs and larger local population decrease it. Fan interest wanes as a season progresses, but this is offset as a team wins more games. Games played near a National Football League stadium, those with conference opponents, non-FBS opponents and non-BCS opponents have lower stadium utilization. The substantive results of the analysis do not change when attendance is used as the dependent variable rather than per cent of capacity.     

The value of state education to consumers in the UK

This paper considers the value of state schooling, as perceived by consumers, taking into account that many households supplement the minimum education provided free of charge with out-of-pocket payments through acquiring accommodation in the catchment area of a high-quality state school. It suggests ways to circumvent difficulties in modelling household behaviour arising from joint housing-education consumption in the context of a two-stage demand system, where the proposed money metric of state schooling can be estimated from data readily available in household expenditure surveys. The empirical analysis, based on UK data, estimates this money metric as the amount households with school-age children would be willing to accept in order to opt out of the state education system. The efficiency and distributional implications of the empirical findings are discussed.     

Manufacturing FDI and economic growth: evidence from Asian economies

Previous empirical studies on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth generate mixed results. This article suggests that the ambiguous results might be caused by the use of total FDI. We study the heterogeneous effects of different sector-level FDI inflows on host country's economic growth. Data from 12 Asian economies over the period of 1987 to 1997 are employed. Strong evidence shows that FDI in manufacturing sector has a significant and positive effect on economic growth in the host economies. FDI inflows in nonmanufacturing sectors do not play a significant role in enhancing economic growth. Furthermore, without the decomposition of total FDI inflows, the effect of manufacturing FDI on host country's economic growth is understated by at least 48%.     

Individual determinants of work attendance: evidence on the role of personality

We investigate the influence of personality as measured by the Big Five personality scale on absenteeism using the 2005 wave of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Estimates of a double hurdle negative binomial regression allow us to test hypotheses on the influence of the Big Five personality traits on work attendance. Our findings augment previous results on the link between personality and absenteeism by analysing representative data and including a large set of control variables typically not available in small scale surveys. We find clear negative correlations between the absence probability and Conscientiousness among women. For male employees a negative correlation with the incidence of absence is observed for the Agreeableness dimension. When looking at the length of absence occurrences Neuroticism is found to significantly influence male absenteeism despite controlling for the subjective health of the individual. Following the reasoning by Bowles et al. (2001) for the provision of effort by employees, employers might pay for incentive-enhancing preferences such as low Neuroticism among male employees because employers can only insufficiently monitor the true level of sickness of their employees and consequently want to avoid voluntary absenteeism.     

Intrinsic versus instrumental benefits of higher education: the challenge from self-funded higher education

ABSTRACT

UK policy concern about the value and funding of Higher Education has focussed on the intrinsic and instrumental impacts of education. Typically, returns to education are identified by narrow economic metrics, like earnings. However, policy makers recognize the need for wider measures of welfare. Consequently, contemporaneous relationships with subjective well-being (SWB) have been explored. In this paper the effects of higher education on SWB are mapped through time. The results show positive effects in the first year at university that dissipate afterwards. Intrinsic benefits from education remain but get eroded implying increased stress from loan financed education with transition to a more instrumental perspective on education.     

Exploring the Economic Choice to Participate in Sport: Results from the 2002 General Household Survey

This article explores the decision to participate in sports activities in the United Kingdom using a qualitative choice framework. The consistency of the results with neoclassical theories of leisure, and heterodox economic theory, which embraces a psychological view of decision making and structure of demand, is assessed. Finding more support for the latter perspective, the implications of this for sports policy are discussed.     

Growth in a time of austerity: evidence from the UK

This paper uses an empirical approach to test the specific causal relationship between debt and growth in the UK, in the context of the debate surrounding the use of a policy known as austerity measures. This time series perspective makes use of more recent Granger causality and cointegration tests that allow for non‐stationarity in macroeconomic time series data in the presence of structural breaks. Controlling for exogenous shocks associated with the period around the financial crisis, we find no evidence of a causal relationship between economic growth and public debt for the UK.     

Foreign direct investment in the UK: evidence from a disaggregated panel of the UK food sector

Most empirical studies of foreign direct investment (FDI) typically use either a cross-sectional (capturing ownership-specific and industry determinants) or time-series (capturing the determinants of FDI over time) approach. Panel data techniques, however, have the advantage of combining both aspects of the data. Using disaggregated panel data for the UK food sector – a leading recipient of FDI in the UK – the results in this paper highlight the predominance of ownership-specific and industry characteristics in determining the presence of foreign-owned firms in this sector while macro-economic factors have a more marginal effect.     

Intergenerational transmission of education in China: New evidence from the Chinese Cultural Revolution

This paper estimates the effect of parental education on children's education by using instruments generated by the Chinese Cultural Revolution, and further explores the mechanisms of this causal relationship. Several important findings stand out from our empirical analyses. We find a larger intergenerational persistence in education for higher level in urban areas but for a lower level of education in rural areas. The main results from instrumental variable estimation show that the nurture effect is larger and more significant for fathers than for mothers. A deeper investigation of the mechanism behind this nurture effect informs us that a father's education passes on to his children's education partly through the income channel. Another notable finding is that even after controlling for fathers’ income, parental education still has a significantly positive effect on children's education through the nurture effect. This indicates that beyond the income channel, there may exist other channels such as better home environment, which deserve to be explored in future research.     

Migration and imperfect labor markets: Theory and cross-country evidence from Denmark,Germany and the UK

We investigate the labor market effects of immigration in Denmark, Germany and the UK, three countries which are characterized by considerable differences in labor market institutions and welfare states. Institutions such as collective bargaining, minimum wages, employment protection and unemployment benefits affect the way in which wages respond to labor supply shocks, and, hence, the labor market effects of immigration. We employ a wage-setting approach which assumes that wages decline with the unemployment rate, albeit imperfectly. We find that the wage and employment effects of immigration depend on wage flexibility and the composition of the labor supply shock. In Germany immigration involves only moderate wage, but large unemployment effects, since immigrants are concentrated in labor market segments with low wage flexibility. The reverse is true for the UK and Denmark.     

Incorporating research findings in the economics syllabus: evidence on genuine sociality from Italy and the UK

Economics education is proving slow in incorporating into the syllabus the genuine advances made in economics research in the last few decades. As economics education relies primarily on the single approach of neoclassical economics, whilst recent advances in research have been marked by a wide variety of approaches, many of which are interdisciplinary, the methodological divide between education and research is growing wider. We attempt to measure how keen students are to incorporate research findings in the syllabus by developing a questionnaire which introduces undergraduate students in Italy and the U.K. to key findings in the research literature on genuine sociality, an area in which the methodological divide is very noticeable. Students display moderate support for being taught the material on genuine sociality. Students who wish to incorporate genuine sociality in the syllabus tend to be older, value virtue and have a religion.     

Just looking for a good game: competitive balance in the Korean Professional Baseball League

Rottenberg’s uncertainty of outcome hypothesis is about preferences that can vary across fans and sports. We provide the first evidence of the empirical power of the hypothesis in the Korean Professional Baseball League (KPBL). In a panel data set, team-level aggregation over years shows that fans of this league attend in ways consistent with the hypothesis at the level of game uncertainty and consecutive season uncertainty, but only the first is statistically significant. KPBL fans appear to just be looking for a good game. This is consistent with the nearly complete concentration of post-season participation among a very few teams outside of the major population centre in Seoul and a lack of local team identification among KPBL fans. Our work adds to the diversity of league structures in the competitive balance literature since talent levels in KPBL are the result of parent company advertising choices rather than geographic identification. There are research questions and a policy implication.     

The returns to education and wage penalty from overeducation: New evidence from Vietnam

This study intends to estimate the rate of returns to education in Vietnam, the distributive effects of education on wages, and the wage penalty from the incidence of overeducation in the Vietnamese labor market during 2004–2016. This study employs a pseudo-panel approach to address omitted variables bias and the unconditional quantile regression to identify the heterogeneity of returns to education across the income distribution. Our main finding indicates that the estimated rate of returns to education in Vietnam is approximately 6.5%, showing a downward bias from previous estimates. The returns vary across wage distributions, where a lower rate of return is observed in lower quantiles and a higher rate among those individuals at the higher quantiles. The returns to education have declined since 2008, confirming the oversupply of highly educated workers in the Vietnamese labor market with an estimated wage penalty of 17%. Government assistance measures are needed to reduce the overeducation and the wage penalty issues in the Vietnamese labor market.     

Foreign education and international trade: empirical evidence from selected Latin American countries

Social ties among university students – of friendship, mutual trust and attachment to the alma mater – tend to be robust and enduring. Through information-diffusion and behaviour-enforcement mechanisms, they can boost the economic exchanges between countries. This paper tests the influence of Latin American people with a tertiary education in OECD countries on the bilateral trade between the home economy and the country of the alma mater, taking into account potential endogeneity concerns. Results show that Latin American student networks exert strong, positive and significant effects on bilateral imports and exports. A 10% increase in the number of Latin American students in the OECD economy boost bilateral trade by about 3%. At a more disaggregated level, their impact on differentiated goods is significantly higher than on homogenous products. Their incidence is lower in the presence of bilateral trade agreements and economic integration between countries. Results are robust to the deep economic and political transformations of the period considered, and to the use of different regressors and specifications.     

Quality of higher education and earnings: evidence from Finland using field-of-study-level quality measures

Using administrative data from Finland, this paper empirically examines the relationship between university graduates’ early career earnings and three measures of university quality: the number of teachers per student, the number of publications per researcher and the number of applicants per admitted student. A distinction to previous studies is made by paying special attention to field-of-study heterogeneity: the quality measures are allowed to vary by a student’s field, while the heterogeneity of earnings and individuals across fields is accounted for in the analysis. For the most part, the results indicate that the relationship between institution quality and earnings is rather weak; however, certain significant quality effects are also found. In particular, the teachers/student ratio is found to be positively associated with the earnings of women and graduates from the humanities. Overall, the results indicate considerable heterogeneity in quality effects across genders and fields.     

The effect of sporting success and management failure on attendance demand in the Bundesliga: a revealed and stated preference travel cost approach

This study examines the private consumption benefits of sports attendance using revealed and stated preference data from 28 Football Bundesliga teams across three divisions. Survey respondents were presented with positive (sporting success) and negative (management failure) scenarios and asked for the number of game trips if each scenario occurred. The results of a pooled random effects Poisson model show that travel costs and ticket price have a significant negative effect on the number of home game trips. The weighted consumer surplus per game trip including travel costs and ticket prices is €345. Consumer surplus per game trip was found to change by €41 (first division) and €98 (second and third division) if the positive scenario occurred and by €39 if the negative scenario occurred.     

Non-linearity in the determinants of capital structure: evidence from UK firms

We demonstrate that, by exploiting more fully the distribution of leverage, conditional quantile regression methods yield new insights into the choice of leverage ratio. For UK listed companies we find that not only is the estimated effect of the explanatory variables different at different quantiles of the distribution, but also that the effect of a variable changes sign between low leveraged and high leveraged firms.