Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change

According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency of hot and dry periods will increase in many regions of the world in the future. For power plant operators, the increasing possibility of water shortages is an important challenge that they have to face. Shortages of electricity due to water shortages could have an influence on industries as well as on private households. Climate change impact analyses must analyse the climate effects on power plants and possible adaptation strategies for the power generation sector. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the short- and medium-term. In the long-term, the water demand will change as old units are phased out and new generating units appear in their place.In this paper, we describe the integration of functions for the calculation of the water demand of power plants into a water resources management model. Also included are both short-term reactive and long-term planned adaptation. This integration allows us to simulate the interconnection between the water demand of power plants and water resources management, i.e. water availability. Economic evaluation functions for water shortages are also integrated into the water resources management model. This coupled model enables us to analyse scenarios of socio-economic and climate change, as well as the effects of water management actions.     

Identification of national priority areas for adaptation to climate change in China

The problem of global warming has been identified as the first in the list of the top ten environmental problems in the world. As climate change will seriously affect the social and natural world that people live in, so it may lay serious repercussions on economic progress, social improvement, and sustainable development. International bodies everywhere and many of the countries＇ governments are responding urgently to this call In recent years, climate change has affected different regions in China in different ways. In its national agenda, the Chinese government should address the problem of climate change and its negative impact on socio-economic development. In this endeavor the nation should introduce policies which will help its people and economy to adapt to these effects and changes. Priority-fields of adaptation to climate change are the sensitive areas or departments which are more vulnerable to the negative influences of climate change. The negative impacts of climate change in some parts of China are considered to be very serious indeed as they affect the whole economy and community. As a result, priority should be given to these more affected regions for the limited state financing. This paper defines adaptation and discusses the basic principles and programs in the identi.fication of national priority areas where adaptation should be exercised. Based on the past studies, four priority areas in China are identified, namely, disaster prevention and mitigation, water resources, agriculture, and ecosystem. An analysis on the identification procedures, and the reasons and tasks involved are given for each.     

Technological risk perception and nuclear power costs : The quantification of uncertainty

The cost of nuclear power has escalated significantly in recent years, confounding the optimistic projections of planners and contributing to a serious slowdown in the industry. In this paper we investigate the factors underlying nuclear cost escalation and specify a nonlinear regression technique that identifies costs caused by public and professional uncertainty about future technological performance as opposed to costs based on objective design and construction-related factors.Using multivariate analysis of variance we establish a positive relationship between costs related to uncertainty and such plant specific factors as size, age, and vintage (year of initial operation). Specifically, uncertainty and its associated costs are shown to be greater for larger plants with more advanced technology and to decrease as plants accumulate operating experience. This result suggests that the tendency in the industry toward rapid deployment of large plants with innovative technologies has had a deleterious impact on power generation costs.     

Plant location and strategic environmental policy with inter-sectoral linkages

In recent debates on trade liberalisation the concern has often been expressed that with more competitive international trade governments will be worried that by setting tougher environmental policies than their trading rivals they will put domestic producers at a competitive disadvantage, and in the extreme case this could lead to firms relocating production in other countries. The response by governments to such concerns will be to weaken environmental policies (‘eco-dumping’). In competitive markets such concerns are ill founded, but there is a small amount of literature which has analysed whether governments will indeed have incentives for eco-dumping in the more relevant case of markets where there are significant scale economies; even here there is no presumption that the outcome will involve eco-dumping.In this paper we extend the analysis of strategic environmental policy and plant location decisions by analysing the location decision of firms in different sectors which are linked through an input-output structure of intermediate production. The reason why we introduce inter-sectoral linkages between firms is that they introduce an additional factor, relative to those already analysed in the literature, in the plant location decision, which is the incentive for firms in different sectors to agglomerate in a single location. This has a number of important effects. First, there is now the possibility of multiple equilibria in location decisions of firms. Following from this there is the possibility of catastrophic effects where a small increase in an environmental tax can trigger the collapse of an industrial base in a country; however there is also the possibility that a country which raises its environmental tax could attract more firms to locate in that country, because of the way the tax affects incentives for agglomeration. Finally, and again related to the previous effects, there is the possibility of a hysteresis effect where raising an environmental tax in one country can cause firms to relocate to another country, but subsequently lowering that tax will not induce firms to relocate back into the original country.We consider a simple model with two countries, two industries, an upstream and a downstream sector, and two firms per industry. The analysis proceeds through a three-stage game: in the first stage the governments of the two countries set their environmental policies; in the second stage the firms in both industries choose how many plants to locate and where; in the third stage firms choose their output levels, with the demand for the upstream firms being determined endogenously by the production decisions of the downstream firms. We assume that there are no limits to production capacity, so that firms do not build more than one plant in any country. However, firms may build plants in different countries because of positive transport costs. Although the model appears very simple, it cannot be solved analytically, so all the conclusions must be drawn from numerical simulations.     

Small business and entrepreneurship in the knowledge economy: A comparison of Australia and Sweden

Dominant explanations within the existing development literature for the differences in poverty levels around the world have tended to ignore the influence of international inequality on poverty, instead focusing solely on domestic factors. In this paper, I conduct a regression analysis of the effect of inequality between countries on world poverty between 1980 and 2007, employing a new structural measure of international inequality which is created using social network analysis to calculate countries' positions in international trade networks. Countries' infant mortality rates are used to measure poverty. The results of the empirical analysis provide cross-country evidence to demonstrate that structural inequalities in the international system have a significant impact on poverty around the world. As such, the analysis demonstrates the need to move beyond focusing exclusively on domestic attributes of developing countries towards considering the broader international political economy in analysing contemporary poverty.     

Why don't firms export more? Product quality and Colombian plants

Exporting firms around the world ship only a small fraction of their output overseas. For firms in a large country, such as the United States, this behavior can be explained by the existence of a large domestic market. For firms in a small lower income country, such as Colombia, the lower share of exports remains a puzzle. This paper begins by illustrating the failure of current models to explain plant export patterns in Colombia. Even models that do well in describing the US export distribution fail when confronted with the Colombian data. In response to this puzzle, this paper suggests that Colombia's export distribution can be explained with a two-dimensional productivity space where output productivity is considered separately from quality productivity. Predictions of this theory are tested on Colombian plant level data from 1981–1991. Overall, product quality is shown to be a significant factor in explaining the tendency for Colombian plants to under-export manufactured goods to the United States.     

Trade Liberalization, Exit, and Productivity Improvements: Evidence from Chilean Plants

This paper empirically investigates the effects of liberalized trade on plant productivity in the case of Chile. Chile presents an interesting setting to study this relationship since it underwent a massive trade liberalization that significantly exposed its plants to competition from abroad during the late 1970s and early 1980s. Methodologically, I approach this question in two steps. In the first step, I estimate a production function to obtain a measure of plant productivity. I estimate the production function semiparametrically to correct for the presence of selection and simultaneity biases in the estimates of the input coefficients required to construct a productivity measure. I explicitly incorporate plant exit in the estimation to correct for the selection problem induced by liquidated plants. These methodological aspects are important in obtaining a reliable plant-level productivity measure based on consistent estimates of the input coefficients. In the second step, I identify the impact of trade on plants' productivity in a regression framework allowing variation in productivity over time and across traded- and nontraded-goods sectors. Using plant-level panel data on Chilean manufacturers, I find evidence of within plant productivity improvements that can be attributed to a liberalized trade for the plants in the import-competing sector. In many cases, aggregate productivity improvements stem from the reshuffling of resources and output from less to more efficient producers.     

基于因子分析法的案例教学效果影响因素研究

通过对现有文献的梳理以及对学生进行的问卷调查和小组访谈,发现目前我国的案例教学效果总体来说不尽人意,这使得案例教学模式本身的优势难以有效发挥,从而影响案例教学模式的效果。现有研究中关于案例教学效果影响因素的论证既有不同之处,也有许多重复之处。由于各个因素之间往往存在着错综复杂的相关关系,从而势必会增加教师提高案例教学效果的难度。通过因子分析法将众多影响案例教学效果的因素进行归纳,提炼出几个主要的因素,并有针对性地提出提高案例教学效果的对策建议。     

Local environmental regulation and plant-level productivity

This paper examines the impact of environmental regulation on the productivity of manufacturing plants in the United States. Establishment-level data from three Censuses of Manufactures are used to estimate 3-factor Cobb-Douglas production functions that include a measure of the stringency of environmental regulation faced by manufacturing plants. In contrast to previous studies, this paper examines effects on plants in all manufacturing industries, not just those in “dirty” industries. Further, this paper employs spatial-temporal variation in environmental compliance costs to identify effects, using a time-varying county-level index that is based on multiple years of establishment-level data from the Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures survey and the Annual Survey of Manufactures. Results suggest that, for the average manufacturing plant, there is no statistically significant effect on productivity of being in a county with higher environmental compliance costs. For the average plant, the main effect of environmental regulation may not be in the spatial and temporal dimensions.     

Selection on performance and tracking

Tracking is widely used in secondary schools around the world. Some countries put more emphasis on the use of performance to place students into tracks (e.g. the Netherlands), while in other countries parents have more influence on the track their child will go to (e.g. Germany). This article examines whether selection into tracks based on performance has an effect on the relation between tracking and student performance and educational opportunities. Using data from the Programme for International Student Assessment for around 185 000 students in 31 countries, different estimation models are compared. The results indicate that a highly differentiated system is best for performance when schools always consider prior performance when deciding on student acceptance. In systems with a few tracks, there is no such impact. Equality of opportunity is best provided for in a system with many tracks when schools always consider prior performance.     

水电站建成后保护植物的恢复利用研究——以云南省李仙江土卡河为例

我国是世界上生物多样性最丰富的国家之一,也是水电资源丰富的国家。多年来,在许多水电站开发后的植被恢复过程中大规模地有意或无意引入外来物种,造成当地的生物多样性丧失,而且很难恢复。文章选择的云南省李仙江土卡河流域为一条国际河流,该流域分布的热带雨林是我国境内生物多样性程度最高、热带生物资源和基因资源最丰富的区域之一。文章根据水电工程建设环境保护工作的实践,分析水电建设对生物多样性的影响,研究水电建设中陆生珍稀保护植物恢复利用情况和具体措施,为今后水电建设生物多样性保护提供借鉴。     

A Study on Market Potentialities of Major Apple Import Countries

Import potentialities of world apple markets consist of the quantitative size and price level, and to some extent, will determine where the exported apples will be shipped to and how large the amount exported to each destination will be. Results indicate that apple import potentialities of European markets are the largest among world major apple trading blocks. Apple import potentialities of Asian Markets around China are not as large as Europe, but these markets are easier for China apple exports to enter. China has obvious comparative advantages in many aspects of apple production and apple marketing. In order to enhance her high-quality apple exports effective measures must be taken.     

Potential user factors driving adoption of IPTV. What are customers expecting from IPTV?

Internet Protocol Television (IPTV), the convergence services of television and Internet, is being rapidly developed around the world. The advent of digital technologies has changed the convergence market dramatically with the wide diffusion of the convergent services. Using the Technology Acceptance Model as a conceptual framework and method of logistic regression, this research analyzes the demand for IPTV by drawing data from 452 consumers. Individuals' responses to questions about whether they accept IPTV are collected and combined with observations of their socio-economic status and intrinsic/extrinsic factors modified from the Technology Acceptance Model. Results of logistic regression show two variables (intrinsic and extrinsic factors) that seem to explain what influences consumer behavior towards adopting IPTV. Overall, the logistic regression model explains over 50% of the variance in the IPTV adoption. The variances shed light on the multi-open platform environment that IPTV will forge.     

Terrorism and its impact on economic growth and technological innovation

Recent terrorist acts, in particular the 9-11 attacks in 2001, have created disruptions in the global economy. The short-term impact had been felt in the global tourism, airline industries, as well as the financial markets. While the global economy has recovered and is adjusting to the new global realities, the longer-term impact of heightened security risk across the world can be felt in the form of higher risk premiums in asset markets, as well as a shift of resources towards dealing with terrorism. Just as World War II had accelerated the development of nuclear energy as well as a major contributing factor in the genesis of Silicon Valley, the current war against terrorism will affect both the pace and trajectory of technology trends, as efforts are focused on developing technologies to combat terrorism. In this paper, we review the effects of the current war on terrorism in terms of its impact on the economy, the allocation of resources to R&D, and the trajectory of future R&D.     

Making real money in virtual worlds: MMORPGs and emerging business opportunities, challenges and ethical implications in metaverses

Today, millions of people from around the globe play online role playing games (MMORPG), in which a large number of players interact with one another in a virtual world, either using their existing identities in the physical world, or more often than not, through new virtual identities that might not even be remotely linked to the identities of the players in the physical world. The number of users is growing at an exponential rate and we are probably on the verge of a new development that is going to be as significant as the Internet itself. This positioning paper will discuss the business opportunities and challenges of such a virtual world, that of Second Life, and will examine the resultant corporate social responsibility implications focusing on the ethical and policy-related ones. This will help to identify important research questions that need to be systematically addressed.     

国际能源运输系统与国际能源安全——一种非传统安全视角的透视

国际能源运输系统是当前实现能源在世界范围内重新分配的途径,它主要由海洋运输、管道运输、铁路运输构成。国际能源运输系统线路长、环节多、整体性强、受攻击门槛低,它本身具有无法克服的脆弱性;而来自于途经国家政局、大国地缘政治上的博弈和非传统安全因素等方面的威胁加剧了这种脆弱性,并导致了国际能源安全无法得到保障。为了应对这一局面,国际社会应当从世界经济的全局出发联手建立国际能源运输系统的安全保障机制,消除非传统安全因素对它的威胁,以确保世界经济正常运转。     

Japanese manufacturing facing post-Fukushima power crisis: a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis with foreign direct investment

The Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent tsunami that hit and severely damaged the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station resulted indirectly in the shutdown of most of the nuclear power plants in Japan. To compensate for the lost nuclear power supply, more fossil fuels were used. People became concerned that this could be disadvantageous for domestic manufacturing industries and accelerated their offshoring to Asia, especially China, through foreign direct investment (FDI). We used a world trade computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with endogenous FDI from Japan to China to quantify the impact of the power crisis on the Japanese manufacturing sectors. We found that the power crisis as well as FDI would adversely affect several sectors that use power intensively, but would benefit the transportation equipment (TEQ), electric equipment (EEQ) and machinery sectors, despite the common expectation that these sectors would undergo a so-called ‘hollowing-out.’     

NUCLEAR TERRORISM: REACTOR SABOTAGE AND WEAPONS PROLIFERATION RISKS

Nuclear power plants and research reactors are vulnerable to acts of terrorism that could render safety systems inoperable and result in catastrophic releases of radioactivity. In addition, expanding civil commerce in weapon-usable forms of plutonium and uranium and deploying tactical nuclear weapons in areas where terrorists are active increase the risk of terrorists' building or stealing nuclear weapons or, even more likely, carrying out a credible hoax.
The United States and other advanced industrialized nations should be concerned about nuclear terrorism, the threat of which now is perceived as low. However, if terrorist groups become more determined, violent, and technologically advanced, as some experts anticipate, then the possibility of nuclear terrorism will likely increase with little warning. Nuclear terrorism, regardless of where it occurs, could have far-reaching consequences for economic stability and world peace. Western Europe is a region of continuing concern due to its high level of "nuclearization" – that is, civil and military nuclear development – and the presence of sophisticated terrorist organizations operating across national boundaries.
This paper reviews potential dangers and available remedies based on the report of the International Task Force on Prevention of Nuclear Terrorism, on policy and technical studies prepared for the Task Force, and on follow-up research conducted by the Nuclear Control Institute, the Task Force's sponsoring organization.     

Residential property price differentials of waste plants: evidence from Beijing,China

As a primary source of urban pollution, waste plants release toxic gases and polluted waste water that can cause great harm to human health and contaminate water resources. The adverse impact of waste plants on environmental threaten the quality of life of surrounding residents which will be reflected in residential property values. In this study, we develop a hedonic price model to estimate the environmental externalities of waste plants based on a panel dataset for real-estate transactions in Beijing from 2011 to 2015. We apply fixed effects and a Heckman selection model to control for omitted variable bias and sample selection bias and then construct price counterfactuals for properties. The price differentials between expected and counterfactual prices are then calculated. Our empirical results suggest that waste plants negatively influence residential property prices. Additionally, the influences of other factors, such as school district, traffic convenience, and average housing area, on property prices are consistent with common sense, though they are weakened for properties within three kilometers of waste plants.