Not measuring sustainable value at all: A response to Kuosmanen and Kuosmanen

In their article in this issue of Ecological Economics, Kuosmanen and Kuosmanen [Kuosmanen, T. and Kuosmanen, N., this issue. How Not to Measure Sustainable Value (and How One Might). Ecological Economics.] aim to criticise the measurement of Sustainable Value as proposed in our previous research. By adopting a production perspective and based on a productive efficiency analysis, they claim that the proposed way of measuring Sustainable Value represents an invalid simplification that rests on restrictive and unrealistic assumptions. Our response is to show that their argument rests on a fundamental misspecification of the Sustainable Value approach. We identify three conceptual misfits: a mismatch in the perspective of the analysis, a misspecification of opportunity costs and the irrelevance of production functions. Ultimately, Kuosmanen and Kuosmanen's train of thought rests entirely within the realm of productive efficiency analysis, whereas Sustainable Value builds on the foundations of financial economics and consequently adopts a macro rather than a firm perspective. It is thus not surprising that the findings of Kuosmanen and Kuosmanen appear to contradict the Sustainable Value approach. However, this is due to their fundamental misspecification of the Sustainable Value approach. As a result, rather than providing novel insights into how Sustainable Value might be measured in a better way, they do not measure Sustainable Value at all.     

Distributional Costs of Housing-price Bubbles: Who pays the Price when Bubbles Deflate?

Abstract

In considering whether asset-price bubbles should be offset through policy, an important issue is who pays the price when the bubble bursts. A bust that reduces the wealth of well-off households only may have small welfare costs, but costs may be sizable if broad swaths of households are affected. This paper uses micro data on millions of households from the US American Community Survey to examine how the bursting of the 1998–2006 housing bubble affected households’ employment, homeownership, home values, and housing costs. To separate dynamics of the housing bust from those of the aggregate downturn, we differentiate between metropolitan areas that did and did not experience bubbles. We find that, for most measures, deteriorations in well-being were more severe in bubble metros than elsewhere, and for several measures, differential effects on less-educated households were also more severe. This underscores the importance of leaning against broad-based housing bubbles via appropriate policies, as burdens of adjustment fall differentially on people not well prepared to bear them.     

Payments for environmental services as an alternative to logging under weak property rights: The case of Indonesia

Decentralization reforms in Indonesia have led to local communities negotiating logging agreements with timber companies for relatively low financial payoffs and at high environmental cost. This paper analyzes the potential of payments for environmental services (PES) to provide an alternative to logging for these communities and to induce forest conservation. We apply a game-theoretical model of community-firm interactions that explicitly considers two stylized conditions present in the Indonesian context: (i) community rights to the forest remain weak even after decentralization, and (ii) the presence of logging companies interested in the commercial exploitation of the forest. Intuition may suggest that PES design should focus on those communities with the lowest expected payments from logging deals. However, we show that these communities may not be able to enforce a PES agreement, i.e., they may not be able to prevent logging activities by timber companies. Moreover, some communities would conserve the forest anyway; in these cases PES would not lead to additional environmental gains. Most important, the introduction of PES may increase a community's expected payoff from a logging agreement. A failure to consider this endogeneity in expected payoffs could lead to communities opting for logging agreements despite PES, simply allowing communities to negotiate better logging deals. Our results indicate that PES design is a complex task, and that the costs of an effective PES system could potentially be much higher than expected from observing current logging fees. Using data collected in Indonesia on actual logging fees received by communities, we illustrate how the theoretical results could be used in empirical analysis to guide PES design. Our results are likely to be useful in other cases where local people make resource use decisions but have weak property rights over these resources, and where external commercial forces are present. The results highlight the importance of understanding the details of the local context in order to design PES programs appropriately.     

A study on financial opportunity costs of growing local varieties of sorghum in Ethiopia: Implications for on-farm conservation policy

The increasing interest in on-farm conservation is driven by its diverse attractive features — its participatory nature and its flexible and dynamic features; its capacity to maintain not only crop diversity but the knowledge that evolves with it; and the chance it offers to link conservation with utilization and farmers' livelihoods. To implement this strategy on a sustainable basis, policy incentives are crucial. This paper argues that opportunity costs farmers face have a role to play to design sound policy incentives. Taking sorghum as an example, opportunity costs have been examined in this paper using data collected from 198 farmers in Eastern Ethiopia. The average opportunity costs suggest the size of the required policy incentives and they are the basis to estimate the national conservation costs for on-farm conservation. The regression analysis shows that opportunity costs increase with access to output markets and extension, output price, access to input supply, experience in growing improved varieties, and the relative importance of the crop. On the contrary, plot quality, input price, and oxen ownership are reducing the opportunity costs. The paper then concludes outlining the policy implications of the empirical findings to incentive design for on-farm conservation.     

住房需求动态模型的演进

在家庭生命周期内,最优住房消费并不是一成不变的。为了最大化整个生命周期的效用,家庭通常需要权衡迁居的交易成本和不迁居的效用损失。本文介绍研究住房需求的动态模型,给出家庭住房消费决策的理论解释。     

融入与区隔:农民工的住房消费与阶层认同—基于CGSS 2010的数据分析

以住房消费为基本视角,通过对2010年度中国综合社会调查的资料(CGSS 2010)的数据分析,描述和分析农民工的住房消费现状,探讨住房消费这一变量纳入阶层身份认同的可能性,在此基础上,阐述农民工群体的阶层地位与住房消费之间的相关性。农民工的住房消费与阶层认同之间存在正相关,即住房产权归属、人均居住面积、人均居住支出的比例越大,其阶层地位的认同越高,其中,人均居住支出与阶层认同的关联性最密切。     

中国城镇居民住房消费需求弹性分析

影响城镇居民住房消费需求的因素是多方面的,包括收入水平、住房价格、人口因素、金融和税收政策等等。其中,收入和价格因素是构成影响居民住房需求诸多因素中最主要和最直接的因素。应分析住房需求收入弹性和价格弹性,从提高居民收入和稳定住房价格两个方面鼓励城镇居民进行住房消费。     

基于认知视角的创业机会发展过程研究

理性创业时代背景下,如何把握创业机会已成为创业者普遍关心的问题。选取34位创业者作为研究样本,运用文本挖掘和多案例匹配分析方法对创业机会发展过程进行分析、编码,探究创业行为背后的认知机制。研究发现,在机会发现或创造阶段,创业者通过反事实思维推动的创业警觉和创业拼凑两种途径形成创意,并经过新旧认知体系的排斥与趋同形成心智模型,以揭示创业机会发现或创造的认知机制;在机会评估阶段,创业者通过对风险—收益感觉与知觉的多轮反复交互,形成第一人称机会信念和第三人称机会评估,由此揭示创业机会评估的认知机制;在机会开发阶段,创业者形成机会开发内外两种机制,外在机制围绕“探索导向—商业模式创新—新企业成长”展开,内在机制围绕换位思考、效果推理等认知因素推动企业创新、资源获取展开。结论对丰富创业认知理论和管理实践具有重要意义。     

基于认知视角的创业机会发展过程研究

理性创业时代背景下,如何把握创业机会已成为创业者普遍关心的问题。选取34位创业者作为研究样本,运用文本挖掘和多案例匹配分析方法对创业机会发展过程进行分析、编码,探究创业行为背后的认知机制。研究发现,在机会发现或创造阶段,创业者通过反事实思维推动的创业警觉和创业拼凑两种途径形成创意,并经过新旧认知体系的排斥与趋同形成心智模型,以揭示创业机会发现或创造的认知机制;在机会评估阶段,创业者通过对风险—收益感觉与知觉的多轮反复交互,形成第一人称机会信念和第三人称机会评估,由此揭示创业机会评估的认知机制;在机会开发阶段,创业者形成机会开发内外两种机制,外在机制围绕“探索导向—商业模式创新—新企业成长”展开,内在机制围绕换位思考、效果推理等认知因素推动企业创新、资源获取展开。结论对丰富创业认知理论和管理实践具有重要意义。     

房价对居民消费的跨空间影响——基于中国278个城市空间面板数据的实证研究

本文首先基于住房财富效应,构建了房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响的分析框架。该框架阐释了住房财富效应的区域差异:不同地区间房价的空间传导、居民的异地消费以及消费的示范效应,使得本地房价变动可能引起周边地区居民消费的连锁反应。其后,本文利用中国278个地级市2000—2018年数据,通过空间面板杜宾模型,实证考察了不同地区住房财富效应的差异,以及房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响。结果显示:(1)虽然中国整体上存在住房财富效应,但西部城市财富效应并不显著,并且核心城市还存在负财富效应。(2)不同城市间房价对消费存在跨区影响。东部城市和核心城市对周边城市消费的正向影响很显著,而边缘城市则对周边城市消费有显著的负向影响。(3)不同城市间的消费也具有空间上的示范效应。最后,本文从房价和居民消费空间联动的视角,为政府扩大内需、调控房地产市场提供了相关政策建议。     

公平与效率视角下住宅消费保障制度研究

住宅消费保障是社会保障的重要组成部分,它实质上是对国民收入的一种再分配。这个分配过程对公平与效率具有双重效应,不掌握一定的“度”就有可能产生负面影响。因此,基于公平与效率的视角来探讨中国住宅消费保障制度的完善是很有必要的,我们可以从以下几方面来对现行的住宅消费保障制度进行完善,如加强对住宅消费保障的法律支持;建立透明的居民财产收入审报体系;建立住房保障配租补贴体系;建立住房保障的动态调整机制等。     

机遇管理与企业竞争优势

本文从企业成长过程中所面临的问题出发,运用机遇管理理论分析了企业辨识、评价、利用和营造机遇的运行机制,阐释了企业发展过程中机遇管理的重要性和必然性。从经济学的视角来看,企业的竞争优势来源于经济租金,经济租金可以分为基于低成本和差异化的张伯伦租金、基于资源和能力的李嘉图租金、基于知识和创新的熊彼特租金。本文分析了企业机遇管理在企业获取经济租金、建立竞争优势中的作用,分析了机遇管理与低成本和差异化、资源和能力、知识和创新之间的关系。本文认为,机遇管理有利于获得与维持企业租金：企业通过机遇管理有助于实现低成本和差异化,获取张伯伦租金;有助于企业获得稀缺资源,提高能力,获取李嘉图租金;有助于企业积累知识,促进创新,获取熊彼特租金。本文从经济学的角度分析了企业竞争优势的来源,论证了企业租金的来源正是企业竞争优势的来源,探索了企业通过机遇管理建立竞争优势的新方法、新途径。     

房价上涨影响居民消费的作用机制分析——基于预防性储蓄效应视角

通过引入流动性约束和不确定性等因素,分析了房价波动影响居民消费的预防性储蓄效应这一作用机制。研究发现,不论是从长期还是短期来看,房价上涨通过预防性储蓄效应对居民消费产生负面影响,换言之,房价上涨通过不确定性因素和流动性约束导致居民预防性储蓄增加最终会使居民消费下降,短期内预防性储蓄效应的影响系数要小于其长期影响系数。     

房价对居民消费的跨空间影响*——基于中国278个城市空间面板数据的实证研究

本文首先基于住房财富效应,构建了房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响的分析框架。该框架阐释了住房财富效应的区域差异：不同地区间房价的空间传导、居民的异地消费以及消费的示范效应,使得本地房价变动可能引起周边地区居民消费的连锁反应。其后,本文利用中国278个地级市2000—2018年数据,通过空间面板杜宾模型,实证考察了不同地区住房财富效应的差异,以及房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响。结果显示：（1）虽然中国整体上存在住房财富效应,但西部城市财富效应并不显著,并且核心城市还存在负财富效应。（2）不同城市间房价对消费存在跨区影响。东部城市和核心城市对周边城市消费的正向影响很显著,而边缘城市则对周边城市消费有显著的负向影响。（3）不同城市间的消费也具有空间上的示范效应。最后,本文从房价和居民消费空间联动的视角,为政府扩大内需、调控房地产市场提供了相关政策建议。     

创业拼凑、机会开发与新创企业创业绩效关系研究

对于新生弱小的新创企业而言,创业拼凑不仅仅是企业行为层面的被迫选择,更潜移默化地转变为企业战略层面的主动决策。在创业拼凑助力新创企业提升创业绩效的问题上,机会开发成为逻辑-行为-结果中关键的一环。从机会开发行为视角,探索创业拼凑决策逻辑对创业绩效的作用机理。实证结果发现,均衡型机会开发、创新型机会开发在创业拼凑与创业绩效的关系中分别存在部分中介效应,相比于创新型机会开发,创业拼凑与均衡型机会开发的匹配有利于获取更高的创业绩效。该研究对于新创企业决策逻辑形成和机会开发选择具有指导意义。     

Housing,consumption and monetary policy: how different are the first-, second- and third-tier cities in China?

This article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between house prices and the real economy in China’s first-, second- and third-tier cities. A Structural Vector Autoregression model is applied to study the impacts of monetary policy shocks and housing demand shocks on various housing markets across China. We also investigate the role of house prices in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The results reveal that in first-tier cities, raising interest rates has a stronger negative effect on house prices. Also, as house prices decrease in first-tier cities, private consumption declines sharply. There is a stronger role of housing markets in the transmission of monetary policy shocks in these cities. Our findings indicate that interest rate adjustment could effectively curb spikes in housing prices in the first-tier cities, but the impact of such adjustments on household consumption must also be considered.     

创业机会识别过程：机会原型与结构匹配的作用

机会识别是企业家精神的核心思想之一,创业者往往因其经验劣势,难以发现和认知尚未被发掘的机会。现有研究对创业者如何利用机会原型,匹配技术和市场结构关系进而识别创业机会的内在机理仍缺乏深入考察。基于此,采用口语报告法,分析创业者机会原型和结构匹配在创业机会识别过程中的作用,揭示机会原型如何促进结构匹配的推理水平提升。结果表明：创业者更多地利用结构关系匹配识别机会,较少利用表面特征匹配;具有较高水平机会原型的创业者在机会识别过程中更多地利用结构关系匹配,表面特征匹配利用较少。研究结果丰富了创业机会识别认知理论,为解释为什么有些人能够识别别人看不到的机会的前置因素提供了基础。