旅游需求函数的研究

由于旅游区价格具有一定的刚性和稳定性，采用直接观察法不易得出旅游需求函数。文章通过对旅行成本法的研究，首次提出试用旅游复合成本的变化来替代旅游区价格的变化，综合考虑收入、时间的机会成本等因素，使用出游率和旅游复合成本2个指标，建立旅游需求函数，揭示旅游需求规律，探索出一种简易可行计算旅游需求函数的方法。     

生态旅游资源价值评价理论的研究趋势——以旅行费用法为中心

文章在回顾旅行费用模型理论发展过程的同时,通过对国内外关于地区旅行费用模型及个人旅行费用模型研究内容及研究动向的对比,指出了目前国内在旅行费用模型研究中存在的问题。通过分析可以看出,目前国内在地区旅行费用模型的研究中存在对模型核心问题研究不足的问题,同时在个人旅行费用模型的研究中对计数资料模型的研究不足,与主流研究存在一定差距。     

Valuing water level changes in reservoirs using two stated preference approaches: An exploration of validity

The combination of travel cost (TCM) and contingent behaviour (CB) methods is a relatively new research avenue in the recreational valuation community. Contrary to simple TCM applications, TCM-CB facilitates the ex ante valuation of marginal welfare effects resulting from environmental quality or quantity changes, similar to the contingent valuation method (CV). Even though TCM-CB is highly policy relevant, i.e. to inform changes in management regimes at recreational sites, the validity of estimates has hardly received any attention and little is known about the performance of TCM-CB compared to CV. In this paper, TCM-CB and CV are explored with respect to several validity tests in a case study on the recreational effects of water level changes in a reservoir. Overall, the findings reveal that TCM-CB and CV perform equally well in terms of theoretical validity, but that the marginal recreational value varies significantly between the two methods. We also observe that both methods face similar internal difficulties with respect to the stability of values when the order of a set of valuation questions is changed.     

环境质量变化对游客福利的影响——基于旅行费用和条件行为联合数据

环境质量是影响游客旅游需求及福利的重要因素,但单一使用陈述性偏好法或揭示性偏好法仍存在诸多局限性。为探究环境质量改变对游客需求及福利变化的具体影响,结合旅行费用与条件行为数据,在明确现有环境质量状况下景区价值基础上,评估环境质量改善与恶化两种情景下,游客消费者剩余的变化。结果表明,环境质量改变直接影响旅行次数,从而增加或减少消费者剩余,但不会通过影响游客旅行费用间接改变消费者剩余,实际行为与条件行为数据偏好存在一致性;白洋淀景区当前消费者剩余为909.09元/次;环境质量改善使游客平均旅行次数增加1.45次/年,并使每位游客每年的消费者剩余增加1 318.18元;环境质量恶化使游客平均旅行次数降低1.41次/年,并使每位游客每年的消费者剩余减少1 281.81元。     

评价旅游景点经济价值的数学模型

旅游成本方法是新近发展起来的评价旅游景点经济价值的方法。本文对该方法的理论模型,统计模型及模型应用的条件进行全面的探讨,并结合最近的进展展开评价,同时对旅游在放展予以讨论。     

Changing of the guards: New coaches in Austria’s premier football league

Professional team sports provide an ideal real world experiment to explore the effect of top executive replacement due to the availability of excellent performance data. This paper investigates how replacing the coach affects the performance of football teams. Analyzing almost 2,000 matches of the Austrian premier football league by ordinal (probit) regression techniques we find that a new coach tends to enhance team performance in home matches but to weaken it in away matches. However, neither of these effects turns out to be statistically significant. Nevertheless, the much discussed coach effect—ousting an underperforming coach in order to improve team performance at least temporarily—may make sense despite the costs involved by providing stronger ex-ante incentives for effort.

Estimating Recreation Preferences Using Hedonic Travel Cost and Random Utility Models

Over the last decade, several authors have questioned thevalidity of the hedonic travel cost model, arguing instead that the random utility model is a superior method forvaluing recreational site attributes. This paper demonstrates that the two methods emanate from a similar utilitytheoretic framework; yet in practice these methods differ in the assumptions made in their application.Constraining the underlying utility functions to be consistent, both models are applied to the valuation ofrecreational site attributes in the Southeastern United States. The way in which each method estimates preferencesfor site attributes is shown to depend critically on the method and the functional form of theunderlying utility function.     

Testing whether waterfowl hunting benefits increase with greater water deliveries to wetlands

The change in waterfowl hunting benefits due to an increase in water deliveries to the levels required for biologically optimal wildlife refuge management at California's San Joaquin Valley National Wildlife Refuges are estimated with the Travel Cost Method, using both ordinary least squares and Poisson count data estimators. To test whether these increases were statistically significant, the Krinsky and Robb technique was used to find confidence intervals around the consumer surplus point estimates. The increases in consumer surplus were found to be statistically significant in 5 of the 6 refuges based on OLS regression estimates and in all 6 refuges using Poisson count data regression estimates. In addition, a comparison of the marginal value of an acre-foot of water in consumptive recreational use versus agriculture use is made, with the finding that the marginal value of water in waterfowl hunting was greater than the marginal value of water in agriculture for one of the six refuges.     

价格歧视下四种市场类型的消费者剩余

市场按垄断程度由高到低可以分为四种类型：完全垄断市场、寡头垄断市场、垄断竞争市场和完全竞争市场。在发生二度价格歧视的情形下,这四种市场的价格歧视程度的定量结果是一个值得研究的问题。在二度价格歧视下,用微分法研究了一个垄断厂商市场情形,用博弈论方法研究了n厂商市场情形的均衡总产量,均衡价格,均衡总收益,总收益增长率,消费者剩余,厂商占有的消费者剩余率。最后把各种市场情形的上述指标归纳为统一的公式并详细分析了其性质。     

Alternative Models of Recreational Off-Highway Vehicle Site Demand

A controversial recreation activity is off-highway vehicle use. Off-highway vehicle use is controversial because it is incompatible with most other activities and is extremely hard on natural eco-systems. This study estimates utility theoretic incomplete demand systems for four off-highway vehicle sites. Since two sets of restrictions are equally consistent with utility theory both are imposed and the best fitting restrictions are identified using Voung’s non-nested testing scheme. The demand system is modeled using both Poisson and negative binomial II distributions. Data are provided by a survey conducted at four recreational off-highway vehicle (OHV) sites in western North Carolina.     

基于旅行费用法的游憩价值评估分析——以内蒙古达理诺尔国家级自然保护区为例

本文运用旅行费用法,于2004—2007年连续四年对内蒙古达里诺尔国家级自然保护区的游人进行大量问卷调查,评估出达里诺尔国家级自然保护区连续四年的游憩价值,并且对比分析结果,为达里诺尔国家级自然保护区的资源决策与资源补偿提供了参考依据。     

封闭模型下稻米生产技术进步的福利效应分析

运用误差修正模型,估计我国稻米供给和需求弹性,在此基础上,采用Akino和Hayami提出的福利效应模型,具体测算我国稻米生产技术进步的福利效应并进行分解,基本结论为：稻米具有较低的供给弹性和需求弹性,稻米技术进步的福利效应表现为消费者剩余的增加和生产者剩余的减少,但消费者剩余的增加值远远大于生产者剩余的减少值,从而整个社会经济福利水平呈现上升趋势。     

地方保护的经济学分析

在经济越来越趋于全球化的今天，我国国内却地方保护盛行。地方保护给我国不可避免地带来了诸多问题，它使全国统一的大市场难以建立、公平竞争的市场环境难以形成以及资源难以在全国范围内最优化配置。当前．我国正在进行大规模经济秩序整顿及经济发展环境治理，其中主要问题就是消除影响社会整体福利的地方保护主义。运用经济学的静态分析法和博弈论对地方保护主义的成因及影响展开分析，在此基础上提出解决方案。     

基于旅游费用法的长沙洋湖湿地公园游憩价值评估

城市湿地公园是城市生态系统的重要组成部分,具有极高的生态、社会和景观价值。文章在城市湿地公园迅速增长、相关理论研究数量有限的情况下,选取游憩价值评估最为成熟的旅行费用法作为评估方法、长沙市最大的城市湿地公园——洋湖湿地公园作为研究对象,通过运用问卷调查、实地访谈等方法对其游憩价值进行了评估,得出结论如下：公园目前游客实际旅行费用为4411.983万元,而其总游憩利用价值为81 578.473万元,相比之下,公园应有的游憩利用价值尚未得到充分发挥,存在很大程度的资源闲置,开发潜力巨大。     

关于我国产能过剩问题的研究

我们必须以科学的态度和方法认识产能过剩的内涵及形成机理,产能过剩是一种经济现象,其正面效要远远大于其负面效应,在我国经济发展相对落后的情况下不可能出现严重的产能过剩,一些领域所谓的产能过剩只是暂时的虚假的现象。因此,对于一些领域出现的所谓的产能过剩问题,不要急于盲目干预,而应审慎对待,否则会导致供给不足,引发物价上涨。     

基于消费者剩余理论的顾客让渡价值分析

本文将消费者剩余理论作为量化分析工具,深入研究顾客让渡价值中的顾客购买利益和货币成本通过需求量和需求变动影响消费者决策行为的程度,进而提出顾客让渡价值中所引申的给企业当前竞争战略的几点启示。