Smart fund managers? Stupid money?

Abstract .  We develop a model of mutual fund manager investment decisions near the end of quarters. We show that when investors reward better performing funds with higher cash flows, near quarter-ends a mutual fund manager has an incentive to distort new investment toward stocks in which his fund holds a large existing position. The short-term price impact of these trades increase the fund's reported returns. Higher returns are rewarded by greater subsequent fund inflows which, in turn, allow for more investment distortion the next quarter. Because the price impact of trades is short term, each subsequent quarter begins with a larger return deficit. Eventually, the deficit cannot be overcome. Thus, our model leads to the empirically observed short-run persistence and long-run reversal in fund performance. In doing so, our model provides a consistent explanation of many other seemingly contradictory empirical features of mutual fund performance.     

On causality in the size-efficiency relationship: the effect of investor cash flows on the mutual fund industry

One of the perceived advantages in mutual fund management is the presence of economies of scale resulting from fund size. This article analyses the impact of mutual fund cash flows on the relation between size and performance, demonstrating that performance determines asymmetric variations in fund assets, particularly in mutual equity funds. Therefore, the more efficient funds generate broad enough cash flow entry that increases the relative size of the fund, leading to an implicit and positive relation between size and performance. So, if the average size over the period sample is used as a measure of size, such a relation would be biased. When the initial size is used, this bias is avoided and, in general, an insignificant relation is found between size and performance. These results are controlled by mutual fund costs using gross returns to estimate performance. The evidence is robust, and shows only weak evidence of a negative relation between size and performance for the balanced funds that is driven by a low positive relation between costs and size; precisely, the contrary that is expected from the hypothesis of the presence of economies of scale.     

Determinants of Inflow to Mutual Funds: Criterion and Methodology for Their Application to the Mainland China Market

This study is based on the Froot, O’Connell, and Seasholes [2001] and Hsieh, Yang and Yu [2008] as foundations to study which reasons and control factors cause herding behavior of mutual fund inflows. The study uses the most popular Asian emerging market, China, as the sample to determine the real attractive reason behind the mutual fund inflows to China. The significant determinant of the mutual fund inflows to China is stock returns for both Shanghai and Shenzhen A stock markets.     

Financial reforms and capital flows to emerging Europe

Analysis of 18 emerging European economies finds domestic financial reforms to be positively associated with net capital inflows. Controlling for standard determinants of capital flows, we find banking sector reforms in particular to be consistent with higher net financial inflows, whereas no such correlation is found for security market reforms or for indicators of financial depth. Additional net inflows are reaped by the EU accession countries. Countries with more reformed banking sectors receive significantly higher FDI and “other” investment net inflows; this is also found for gross financial inflows, but not for gross outflows.     

Stock returns and mutual fund flows in the korean financial markets: a system approach

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates dynamic and causal relations between stock returns and mutual fund flows in Korea using a system method that utilizes information from the stock, bond, and money markets. For this purpose, we employ the Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression, the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Error Correction Model, and two causality tests in a system method to account for cross-equation correlations among markets that have a close relationship with one another. Furthermore, we use the information in the variance-covariance matrix of residual to improve the efficiency of the statistical estimates. The empirical evidence from the system method indicates that fund flows do not respond to eliminate deviations from long-run equilibrium, and stock prices cause net fund flows in the Korean market, implying that investors move their money to the securities that yield higher returns to rebalance their investment portfolios in the short-run. Thus, our findings do not support the popular notion of mutual fund flows as the driving force behind rallies in the Korean financial markets.     

Risk aversion and portfolio allocation to mutual fund classes

The major factors affecting fund flows allocated to a range of mutual fund classes bearing different risk–return profiles are studied. The flexible functional form of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) is applied to identify the major drivers of Greek investors' demand patterns for equity, bond, balanced and money market funds, given the strong growth rates of the domestic fund market and the economy's latest entry into the EMU. An increase in household expenditure is shown to have a positive impact on mutual fund flows. An adverse price impact, however, may erode budget benefits towards a fund class, as the price factor appears to be important. The cross-price effects provide insight on complementarity and substitutability among the mutual fund classes. Variations in investors' risk aversion attitudes affect demand for mutual funds and can result in asset reallocation between the asset classes. The conclusions have useful policy implications particularly to asset fund management and portfolio allocation strategies and can be compared with established mutual fund markets.     

The Role of Market Sentiment in Asset Allocations and Stock Returns

Abstract

The authors investigate the role of mutual fund flows in incorporating market sentiment into asset prices. They show that retail investors adjust their investments among mutual fund categories in response to changes in market sentiment. Consistent with sentiment-induced price pressure through fund flows, they further find that firms favored by mutual funds, such as large-cap, dividend payers, and firms with high institutional ownership are sensitive to market sentiment. The authors construct a pricing factor representing sentiment risk and find that the sentiment factor is significant in standard asset pricing models and robust to various sorting procedure.     

Does past performance affect mutual fund tracking error in Taiwan?

This study examines the relationship between fund past performance and manager choice of portfolio risk in Taiwan. Employing the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and linear regression models, the results demonstrate that historically poor average performance does not increase mutual fund tracking error (TE) or portfolio risk. Additionally, yearly tournament behaviour, namely mid-year losers increasing their last-half year TEs, only appears in funds with higher management fees. This implies that managers of high management fee funds actively increase TE in response to poor historical performance, to enable them to beat the market during future months or the second half of the year.     

知识流调节作用下知识转移与员工创新行为关系研究

知识转移对组织创新及创新绩效具有积极影响,但目前关于知识流出和知识流入共同作用对创新综合影响的研究较为欠缺。分析了知识转移过程中知识流入与知识流出对员工创新行为的影响,检验了组织知识流入和知识流出对员工创新行为的协同增效作用。研究表明,知识的平衡流动对员工创新行为存在直接影响和协同作用:当知识流动保持较高水平和平衡状态时,员工具有较高的创新行为倾向。     

Do mutual fund flows affect the French corporate bond market?

We study whether investors’ withdrawals from mutual funds affect corporate bond prices. As mutual funds have become major players in the financial markets, they are likely to exert downward pressures on asset prices when facing investors’ redemptions, particularly in the less liquid markets such as corporate bonds. We use a novel dataset on the French bond funds and show that both flows in and out of mutual funds lead to a significant effect on the corporate bond yields. This effect is asymmetric as redemptions provoke a change in yields of greater magnitude than inflows. Moreover, all corporate bonds are not equally affected by investors’ withdrawals from funds: The more a bond is detained by funds, the higher the impact of redemptions on its yield. These three results are robust to various changes in econometric specifications.     

International Financial Flows in Low‐Income Countries

For a sample of low‐income countries, we analyse the behaviour of international financial flows during three periods: (i) the 2003–2007 global boom; (ii) the 2008–2009 crisis; and (iii) the 2010–2012 recovery phase. In particular, we examine aid‐adjusted net financial inflows, debt inflows, foreign direct investment inflows and official reserve outflows. We highlight the role of country characteristics in explaining the cross‐country variation in international financial flows during these different phases.     

Income insurance and the determinants of income insurance via foreign asset revenues and foreign liability payments

We document that the net factor income smoothing channel in OECD countries is primarily driven by net financial asset income, while the other two sub‐components (net compensation of employees and net taxes on imports) turn out to be ineffective. Once factor income inflows are distinguished from outflows, empirical evidence suggests a non-significant effect of inflows in terms of income smoothing as opposed to a positive and significant role of factor income outflows. Factor income outflows also appear to be robust with respect to positive output shocks, while neither factor inflows nor factor outflows provide insurance against negative output shocks. In terms of the determinants of income smoothing, results indicate that an increase in foreign equity and debt liabilities positively affect the extent of smoothing via factor income outflows. Whereas, contrary to the current literature, an increase in foreign asset holding does not have a positive impact on smoothing via factor income inflows. European investors' tendency of allocating a sizeable portion of their assets within the Euro zone is shown to undermine income smoothing.     

我国封闭式基金折价与基金运行绩效的相关性检验

笔者以我国的封闭式基金为样本,利用面板数据建模,综合考量了基金折价率与基金绩效指标间相关关系.研究结果发现,基金绩效指标对当期折价指标有显著的负的影响;而当期的基金折价指标不能准确预测未来绩效水平,即基金折价率并没有提供对未来基金绩效的有价值信息.     

Flows of direct investment and their effects on U.S. domestic investment

Based on the ex post patterns of direct investment, separate hypotheses are offered on the effects of the outflows and inflows of direct investment on U.S. domestic investment. The outflows of capital will stimulate domestic investment and the inflows will displace this investment. Applying an accelerator-flow of funds model of investment with Almon lags for 1959I–1971IV, the results mildly support the hypothesis on the effect of capital outflows, whereas they clearly support the hypothesis on the adverse effect of foreign direct investment in the U.S.     

Patterns of International Capital Flows and Productivity Growth: New Evidence

Recent evidence from developing and emerging economies shows a negative correlation between growth and net capital inflows, a contradiction to neoclassical growth theory. I provide updated and disaggregated evidence on the origins of this puzzle. An analysis of the components of capital flows and of gross portfolio positions shows that foreign direct investment is directed towards countries with the highest growth rates, but that portfolio investment outflows exceed these inflows. Liberalized capital accounts further exacerbate this pattern. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast‐growing countries lies at the heart of the puzzle.     

Financing preferences: evidence from the Korean market

We investigate the financing decisions of Korean firms during the period of 1996–2015. Korean firms follow a matching strategy for funding their cash needs. Cash inflows from investing activities are the primary source of funding for capital expenditures, and cash inflows from financing activities are the major means of covering cash outflows from financing activities. We also find that Korean firms’ financing practice of handling cash deficits can be described by the pecking order model modified and augmented by cash flow variables. Cash inflows from investing activities account for the major portion of financing to make up for cash deficits, followed by short- and long-term debt, and then equity financing.     

指数型基金跟踪误差的实证分析

指数型基金是指采用指数化方式构建投资组合的基金,它与标的指数的选择密切相关.指数基金的构建有三大要素:标的指数、样本证券、权重分配,其目的是与标的指数之间的跟踪误差尽量小.虽然流动性、噪音、处置效应等均会影响指数基金的跟踪误差,但是,在一个较高有效性的市场中,指数型基金与标的指数间的跟踪误差要比新兴市场的小,这主要是因为该市场的流动性较好,成份股的选择有较大的余地.而在中国这样一个"新兴 转轨"市场中,指数基金往往会因为标的指数成份股数量不同而产生很大的差异,标的指数成份股越多,相对应指数基金的跟踪误差就越大;复制型基金完全复制策略下的跟踪误差要比增强型指数基金非完全复制策略下的跟踪误差要小;大额申购与赎回对指数基金跟踪误差产生明显影响.因此,指数型基金投资组合的构建应坚持被动投资,力避主动投资.     

美国资本市场与共同基金互动关系的启示

美国资本市场通过业绩影响、资金支持和竞合作用提升了共同基金的业绩和竞争力,也增加了其资金来源;而共同基金则通过资金供给、参与公司治理和稳定资本市场以及降低交易费用也起到了扩大资本市场规模、改善公司治理、稳定资本市场和提高资本市场市场效率的作用。美国资本市场与共同基金的良性互动关系对我国如何实现资本市场与证券投资基金良性互动发展有着重要的借鉴作用。     

The ins and outs of unemployment in Canada, 1976–2008

Abstract This paper studies the flows into and out of unemployment in Canada at an aggregate and a number of disaggregated levels. I find that inflows into unemployment are countercyclical and outflows are procyclical. At an aggregate level, changes in the rate at which individuals leave unemployment account for most of the changes in unemployment rates in Canada between 1976 and 2008. However, flows into unemployment matter more at some disaggregated levels. There are also some differences in the contributions of flows into and out of unemployment to changes in unemployment rates across the 1981–82 and 1990–92 recessions.     

A regional analysis of flows into and out of the UK national minimum wage

This article utilizes the panel element of the UK Labour Force Survey (LFS) to identify for individual regions total inflows and outflows and hazards for those individuals paid at or below the National Minimum Wage (NMW). In particular, it examines the extent and direction of the correlation between low-pay inflows and outflows and the economic cycle. Further, it examines the impact of regional variations in the bite of the NMW on regional flows into and out of the NMW.