A Voting Architecture for the Governance of Free‐Driver Externalities,with Application to Geoengineering

Abating climate change is an enormous international public‐goods problem with a classical “free‐rider” structure. However, it is also a global “free‐driver” problem because geoengineering the stratosphere with reflective particles to block incoming solar radiation is so cheap that it could essentially be undertaken unilaterally by one state perceiving itself to be in peril. This exploratory paper develops the main features of a free‐driver externality in a simple model motivated by the asymmetric consequences of type‐I and type‐II errors. I propose a social‐choice decision architecture, embodying the solution concept of a supermajority voting rule, and derive its basic properties.     

Institutional design for improved forest governance through REDD: Lessons from the global environment facility

This contribution focuses on carbon mitigation and biodiversity conservation in the context of the UN initiative for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in Developing countries (REDD). The design of REDD is important as it may channel much of the international funding that will potentially be made available for future environmental problem-solving in developing countries. The most important multilateral environmental funding mechanism is the Global Environment Facility (GEF). With its basic structural similarity to the emerging REDD, it provides a good starting point for drawing lessons relevant to the design of REDD. In explaining GEF priorities and performance we discuss the role of key actors as well as the organizational and institutional structure of GEF. These factors do not encourage coalitions for addressing environmental problems in the poorest countries. The institutional setting of REDD in the Convention on Climate Change may further exacerbate this trend, as neither conservation nor socioeconomic concerns like the rights and well-being of indigenous peoples and local communities are addressed. Factors that favour utilizing a similar organization structure include scope for donor trust, for bringing in established competence and a comprehensive approach. REDD must be wary of catering solely to a Northern environmental agenda.     

实验经济学的兴起与公共产品理论的发展

实验经济学是经济学的一个新的分支,其研究内容主要包括个人决策、市场交易、博弈论、学习理论和方法论。它的兴起对公共财政论的核心理论——公共产品理论产生了影响,加深了搭便车问题的研究,对如何有效提供公共产品从实验角度给出了有益的启示,推动了公共产品理论的研究。     

中国适应气候变化的科技政策变迁与展望

适应气候变化的科技政策是该领域科技活动的重要保障。以2007—2020年期间212份适应气候变化的中央科技政策文件作为分析样本,采用共词和聚类方法,分析不同时期适应性科技政策主题聚焦点演进和变化。研究结果显示,“技术研发”“技术成果应用推广”“资金保障”“监测应急能力发展规划”“水利科技发展支持”等主题发生了明显的政策逻辑变迁。整体来看,适应性科技政策呈现密切结合国家气候适应战略演进而深化发展的特点,未来中国适应气候变化的科技政策应进一步引导适应技术科研方向,助力气候适应科技成果转化,提供财政、信息等资源支持。     

Possible economic impacts of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of <Emphasis Type="Italic">FUND</Emphasis>

Climate change can lead to a substantial reduction of the strength of the thermohaline circulation in the world oceans. This is often thought to have severe consequences particularly on the North Atlantic region and Northern and Western Europe. The integrated assessment model FUND is used to estimate the extent of these impacts. The results indicate that, owing to a slower warming (rather than cooling) of the regions most affected by a thermohaline circulation collapse, climate change induced damages in these regions would be smaller in case of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. However, even with a thermohaline circulation collapse, the total and marginal impacts of climate change are negative.JEL Classification: Q510, Q540We are grateful to Till Kuhlbrodt for providing the CLIMBER data and to Andre Krebber for processing them. The German Federal Ministry for Education and Research through the INTEGRATION project, the US National Science Foundation through the Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change (SBR-9521914) and the Michael Otto Foundation provided welcome financial support.     

基于交易成本经济学的外部治理与企业技术创新关系研究

外部治理机制缺失已成为我国公司治理机制构建中的瓶颈。以交易成本经济学为视角,从技术创新的资产专用性出发,探讨技术创新与公司外部治理的匹配问题,研究外部治理与企业技术创新的关系,对如何使技术创新与公司外部治理机制更好地匹配提出一些政策和建议,具有一定的借鉴意义。     

产业链治理的核心论题

产业链治理是顺应产业发展新常态而生的新兴研究对象,主要包括治理主体之间的协作治理、企业间的网络治理与产业聚集的空间治理等研究领域。在对既有文献进行梳理后发现,相关研究主要围绕治理主体、治理客体、治理结构、治理机制4大核心论题展开,并呈现出“五重五轻”的特点,即重企业而轻产业、重纵向而轻横向、重治外而轻治内、重中间而轻两头、重借鉴而轻创新。基于此,就今后的研究重点提出了一些建议。     

The damage costs of climate change toward more comprehensive calculations

It is argued that estimating the damage costs of a certain benchmark climate change is not sufficient. What is needed are cost functions and confidence intervals. Although these are contained in the integrated models and their technical manuals, this paper brings them into the open in order to stimulate discussion. After briefly reviewing the benchmark climate change damage costs, region-specific cost functions are presented which distinguish tangible from intangible losses and the losses due to a changing climate from those due to a changed climate. Furthermore, cost functions are assumed to be quadratic, as an approximation of the unknown but presumably convex functions. Results from the damage module of the integrated climate economy modelFUND are presented. Next, uncertainties are incorporated and expected damages are calculated. It is shown that because of convex loss functions and right-skewed uncertainties, the risk premium is substantial, calling for more action than analysis based on best-guess estimates. The final section explores some needs for further scientific research.     

Group size and the (in)efficiency of pure public good provision

Are larger groups better at cooperation than smaller groups? This paper investigates, under controlled conditions, the presence and direction of a possible group size effect in pure public good provision by large heterogeneous groups. Employing subjects drawn from the general population and introducing Internet-based procedures to study this question, we collected experimental evidence from 1110 subjects playing a linear public goods game in groups of 10, 40, and 100 members. We find a positive and significant group size effect: Increasing group size by a factor of 10 (4) increased efficiency by 10 (6) percent. The effect arose at the intensive margin and with repetition. Those who contributed contributed more in larger groups. Larger and smaller groups had similar initial contribution levels, but cooperation rates declined more slowly in the larger groups. Free-riding was invariant to group size, despite subjects׳ persistent beliefs of a negative group size effect at the extensive margin. Further econometric examination of the data supports these findings and provides starting points for future theoretical and experimental research on the group size effect.     

Similarities and Dissimilarities between Original Institutional Economics and New Institutional Economics

Original Institutional Economics and New Institutional Economics display several similarities. However, differences in methodology and normative stance are too big to reconcile both approaches. Both approaches may keep each other sharp.     

Climate change,fossil fuel prices and depletion: The rationale for a falling export tax

This paper examines how world prices affect depletion of exhaustible fossil fuels for export and the role of an export revenue tax in curbing depletion. Both effects are studied for a small open economy affected by climate change. We find that setting an export revenue tax rate to fall over time at the marginal social cost of depletion due to lower productivity from climate change encourages a resource exporter to leave an optimal stock in the ground – unextracted and unburnable. Growing prices during the past decade similarly curb depletion. Falling prices bring forward extraction. Because production is independent of consumption, the marginal social cost is independent of utility parameters which are difficult to estimate. Slowing fossil fuel extraction and the effective export of emissions is a contemporary challenge for climate policy. Our findings identify both why an export revenue tax should decline over time and an estimable target rate of decline to help meet this challenge amid changing world prices.     

Probabilistic temperature change projections and energy system implications of greenhouse gas emission scenarios

This paper explores the implications for global average temperature change of a set of reference and mitigation scenarios in a probabilistic framework. First, we use published probability density functions for climate sensitivity to investigate the likelihood of achieving targets expressed as levels or rates of global average temperature change. We find, for example, that limiting warming to 3 C above pre-industrial levels with at least a medium likelihood requires cumulative emissions reductions on the order of 30-60% below one unmitigated reference scenario by 2100, while a more favorable baseline scenario requires no reductions at all to achieve this outcome with the same likelihood. We further conclude that the rate of temperature change may prove to be more difficult to control, especially if most of the mitigation effort is postponed until later in the century. Rate of change targets of 0.1–0.2 °C/decade are unlikely to be achieved by a target for the long-term level of climate change alone. Second, we quantify relationships between mitigation costs and the likelihood of achieving various targets and show how this depends strongly on the reference scenario. Third, we explore relationships between medium-term achievements and long-term climate change outcomes. Our results suggest that atmospheric concentrations and the share of zero-carbon energy in the middle of the 21st century are key indicators of the likelihood of meeting long-term climate change goals cost-effectively. They also suggest that interim targets could be an effective means of keeping long-term target options open. Our analysis shows that least-cost mitigation strategies for reaching low climate change targets include a wide portfolio of reduction measures. In particular, fundamental long-term structural changes in the energy system in these scenarios are a necessary but not sufficient condition to achieve high likelihoods for low temperature targets. The cost-effective portfolio of emissions reductions must also address demand-side measures and include mitigation options in the industry, agriculture, and the forest sector.     

创业团队异质性对创业绩效的影响：团队治理的中介作用

借鉴结构—行为—绩效（SCP）模型,构建创业团队异质性—团队治理—创业绩效的研究框架,从人力资本理论、交易费用理论视角对三者之间的作用机理进行探讨和检验。结果表明,创业团队经验异质性与创业绩效之间显著正相关;创业团队经验异质性水平越高,越倾向于选择契约治理模式;契约治理在创业团队经验异质性与创业绩效之间起部分中介作用。实践中,在组建创业团队时要有意识地保持成员在知识技能、专业职能等经验方面的多样化和互补性,从而获得成长所需人力资本和社会资本。同时,需要在团队运作过程中采取与之相适应的治理模式,以制约由此产生的行为不一致甚至冲突,节约沟通协调成本,提高创业企业绩效。     

公司治理制度的失衡与失效及其改革新方向:新制度经济学视角考察

新制度经济学把制度分解为正式制度和非正式制度两大类,认为两类制度各具特色、相互依存、相互补充,构成了制度的整体实施框架。公司治理属于制度的范畴,其中的正式制度和非正式制度必须兼容互补方能发挥治理作用,然而公司治理中伦理机制的缺失几乎是全球性的普遍问题,造成公司治理制度的失衡与失效,进行企业伦理与公司治理制度的整合是当前形势下公司治理改革的方向。     

The economic consequences of substituting carbon payments for crop subsidies in U.S. agriculture

There is a growing body of literature on the costs of sequestering carbon. However, no studies have examined the interplay between farm commodity programs and carbon sequestration programs. This study investigates two dimensions of the interaction between farm commodity programs and afforestation programs, using a price-endogenous sector model of agriculture in the United States. First, this study compares the fiscal and welfare costs of achieving specific carbon targets through afforestation, with and without current farm programs. Second, it examines the welfare, fiscal, and carbon consequences of replacing existing farm subsidies, wholly or in part, with payments for carbon. Two approaches, Hicksian and Marshallian, are investigated. In the first, the sector model is used to quantify the carbon consequences and fiscal costs associated with various combinations of farm commodity and carbon sequestration programs that leave consumers and producers in the U.S. agricultural sector no worse off than under existing farm programs. The second approach focuses on the carbon and welfare consequences of various farm commodity and carbon sequestration programs that hold total program fiscal costs constant at current levels. Althouth the methodology and data are applied to the United States, the issues addressed are common in a number of developed nations, particularly within the European Union (EU). Adapting existing sector models in these nations to perform similar analyses would provide policy makers with more precise information about the nature of the trade-offs involved with second-best policies for replacing farm commodity subsidies with tree planting subsidies.The research reported in this paper was partially funded by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under contract number 68W90077. It does not reflect the official position of that agency. Mention of trade names does not constitute endorsement.     

Climate Change,Innovation, and Economic Growth: The Contributions of William Nordhaus and Paul Romer

ABSTRACT

William Nordhaus and Paul Romer shared the 2018 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for their work on long-run macroeconomic analysis. Nordhaus adapted the neoclassical growth model to study climate change, while Romer developed a model of innovation-based growth. The authors provide two distinct explanations of what drives growth, and employ contrasting methodologies for interpreting the results of their mathematical models. Macroeconomic policy in general, and climate policy in particular, would benefit from better integrating the theory and methods of these two laureates.     

气候变化经济学和气候政策

在气候变化经济学和气候政策的文献综述基础上,剖析了经济学原理在全球气候变化研究中的应用。在总结西方流行的气候变化的经济影响评估、预测、分析方法和模型的前提下,回顾了不同空间和时间尺度上温室气体减排成本估算的方法和结果,特别分析和强调了气候变化不确定性的特点对经济模型和政策设计的影响,提供了有效的基于市场的政策选择。     

论公司治理文化与治理制度不同偏好的互补与替代

从经济学视角看，公司治理文化具有节约交易费用、节约监督成本和加强对企业各相关方激励的作用。公司治理文化偏好不完备契约，而公司治理制度则偏好完备契约，这决定了两者在企业的不同发展阶段是互补与替代的关系。     

The stability likelihood of an international climate agreement

Results derived from empirical analyses on the stability of climate coalitions are usually very sensitive to the large uncertainties associated with the benefits and costs of climate policies. This paper provides the methodology of Stability Likelihood (SL) that links uncertainties about benefits and costs of climate change to the stability of coalitions. We show that the concept of SL improves upon the robustness and interpretation of stability analyses. Moreover, our numerical application qualifies conclusions from a recent strand of literature based on stylised models with ex-ante symmetric players that learning has a negative impact on the success of coalition formation in context of uncertainty.      

论国外对混合组织理论研究的新发展--一个新制度经济学分析的诠释

新制度经济学的一个新的发展方向是将两个不同的研究方向:制度环境和制度结构的分析有机地统一起来.文章介绍了在这一研究思路下国外的有关研究运用非连续结构性替代分析工具,既分析了混合经济组织的制度结构特征,指出了混合经济组织的边界,又分析了产权、契约法、声誉效应以及不确定性等制度环境因素对混合经济组织的影响.