The effect of changes in Japanese consolidation policy on analyst forecast error

Our broad research objective is to investigate whether convergence towards international standards improves the decision usefulness of information. Recent changes in Japanese consolidated reporting practices to better align with international standards provide an excellent setting to investigate this research objective. Specifically, we examine the effect of changes in Japanese consolidation policy on financial analysts’ perceptions of the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Previous research provides evidence that, prior to the change in consolidation policy, consolidated financial information was not used efficiently in the Japanese capital market. Prior research finds a positive relation between subsidiary earnings and future stock returns in Japan, indicating that investors underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Consistent with prior research using stock returns, we find that financial analysts also underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings in Japan. We document a significant positive relation between subsidiary earnings and future forecast errors of consolidated earnings. However, following the changes in consolidation policy in Japan, we find that financial analysts no longer underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Changes in Japanese consolidation policy in conformance with international standards increase decision usefulness by improving the ability of financial analysts to predict overall firm performance. One limitation of our research design relates to the adoption of mandated accounting policy changes by all sample firms in the same calendar time. This makes it difficult to control for the impact of correlated omitted variables. While this concern can never be completely eliminated, we provide additional tests that examine sample partitions by firm size and industry. These additional tests support the primary findings that Japan’s efforts to converge consolidation rules with international standards have improved analysts’ consolidated earnings forecasts.     

Is Working Capital Information Useful for Financial Analysts? Evidence from China

Financial analysts are important information intermediaries in the capital market. This study investigates whether information about working capital management is useful for financial analysts of Chinese firms. With a sample of listed companies from 2004 to 2014, we find that the efficiency of working capital management is positively associated with the number of analyst following and analyst forecast accuracy, and negatively associated with analyst forecast dispersion. Specifically, when the cash conversion cycle becomes longer, number of analyst following and the accuracy of their mean forecasts decrease, while the forecast dispersion increases. The findings of this study indicate a potential mechanism through which information about working capital management is incorporated in stock price in emerging markets such as China.     

Stock index adjustments and analysts’ forecast optimism: A quasi-natural experiment on the CSI 300 Index

As stock index adjustments comprise a basic system of capital market, their potential influence on analysts’ earnings forecasts is worthy of research. Based on a research sample of 23 adjustments to the CSI 300 Index from June 2007 to June 2018 and the backup stocks announced during the same period, this study examines the impact of additions to stock index on analysts’ forecast optimism using a staggered difference-in-differences model. The research results show that after stocks are added to the stock index, analysts’ earnings forecast optimism about these stocks increases significantly. Cross-sectional analysis indicates that this increase is more significant when the market is bullish, institutional ownership is low, the ratio of listed brokerage firms is low, star analyst coverage is low, firms show seasoned equity offering activity, the ratio of analysts from the top five brokerage firms ranked by commission income is high, and the analysts’ brokerage firms are shareholders. However, analyst-level tests find that analysts’ ability helps to reduce the impact of additions to stock index on earnings forecast optimism. Furthermore, additions to stock index significantly increase analyst coverage and forecast divergence. Economic consequences tests find additions to stock index significantly increases stock price synchronization, which is partly mediated by analysts’ earnings forecast optimism. This study enriches the literature on the impact of basic capital market systems and analyst behavior. The findings suggest that investors should rationally evaluate analysts’ earnings forecasts for stocks added to the stock index and obtain further information from various channels to improve asset allocation efficiency.     

Inter‐temporal changes in analysts’ forecast properties under the Australian continuous disclosure regime

Corporate disclosure regulations are important mechanisms for investor protection. This study examines the inter‐temporal changes in analysts’ forecast properties over the period 1988–2001 as Australia’s continuous disclosure regulation and enforcement intensity changed. The effectiveness of the continuous disclosure regime has been a question of interest since its inception, but research in this area is limited. Our results suggest that analysts’ forecast accuracy and dispersion improved for sample firms in response to the proposal and introduction of continuous disclosure regulations. However, following increased enforcement from 1998, analysts’ forecast dispersion deteriorated for small firms, possibly due to a decrease in private information received by financial analysts as regulators became more proactive in enforcing the ban on selective disclosure.     

Causal language intensity in performance commentary and financial analyst behaviour

We use automated techniques to measure causal reasoning on earnings‐related financial outcomes of a large sample of MD&A sections of US firms and examine the intensity of causal language in that context against extent of analyst following and against properties of analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find a positive and significant association between a firm's causal reasoning intensity and analyst following and analyst earnings forecast accuracy respectively. Correspondingly, analysts’ earnings forecast dispersion is negatively and significantly associated with causal reasoning intensity. These results suggest that causal reasoning intensity provides incremental information about the relationship between financial performance outcomes and its causes, thereby reducing financial analysts’ information processing and interpreting costs and lowering overall analyst information uncertainty. Additionally, we find that decreases in analyst following are followed by more causal reasoning on performance disclosure. We also find that firms with a considerable increase of causal disclosure especially attract new analysts who already cover many firms. Overall, our evidence of the relationship between causal reasoning intensity and properties of analyst behaviour is consistent with the proposition that causal reasoning is a generic narrative disclosure quality characteristic, able to provide incremental information to analysts and guide analysts' behaviour.     

The effect of affiliated analysts on stock recommendations: Evidence from share pledges in China

We use the share pledge context in China to examine how affiliated analysts whose securities companies are pledgees of share pledge firms issue stock recommendations on these listed firms. We find that their recommendations are more optimistic than those of non-affiliated analysts, and they are more likely to issue Buy and Add recommendations, suggesting that they issue optimistic rating reports for share pledge firms due to their conflicts of interest. We also find a dynamic adjustment in the stock recommendation behavior of these analysts, and their probability after issuing optimistic stock recommendations is significantly reduced before and after the years that the affiliation relationship between them and share pledge firms both began and ended. These affiliated analysts continue to issue optimistic stock recommendations after visiting the share pledge firms if they work in the same location as the firms, or if they are star analysts among New Fortune’s “top five analysts,” and when the information transparency of the share pledge firms is higher. In addition, the optimistic stock recommendation behavior of affiliated analysts is more significant in our sample of firms with high share pledge ratios and downward stock price pressure. The earnings forecast quality of affiliated analysts is also found to be lower, and they are less inclined to downgrade stock recommendations for these share pledge firms. Buy recommendations issued by both non-affiliated and affiliated analysts can bring cumulative excess returns in the short event window, but those issued by affiliated analysts are significantly negative in the long-term event window, and significantly lower than those issued by non-affiliated analysts. Overall, our study shows that affiliated analysts issue optimistic rating reports on share pledge firms due to conflicts of interest, which leads to decision-making bias in investors and thus decreases the stock price crash risk of the firms. Our findings further reveal the economic consequences of share pledging and extend our understanding of the behavior of analysts in a conflict of interest situation from the share pledge perspective.     

Product market pricing power, industry concentration and analysts’ earnings forecasts

This is the first study to establish a link between product market power and analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Relating two different dimensions of market power to earnings forecastability, we document that (a) a firm’s relative pricing power and (b) its industry concentration are strong positive determinants of analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy. We find that forecasting earnings of higher market power firms is less complex due to their ability to withstand cost shocks as well as greater informational-efficiency enjoyed by such firms. Further, forecast optimism increases with weakening product market pricing power and with lower industry concentration. The knowledge derived from this study will hopefully improve the accuracy of equity valuation, and thereby engender better buy-side (stock selections) and sell-side recommendations by analysts. Our analysis also suggests that brokerage firms compensating analysts based on forecast accuracy need to adjust for the differential in the information complexity of different industries.     

The supply of analysts and earnings forecasts

Using a unique set of hand-collected data, this study examines whether a larger supply of prospective analysts leads to existing financial analysts' higher earnings forecast accuracy. We analyze the effect of the analyst supply proxied by the number of universities and the number of finance and economics universities located in the same city as the headquarters of brokerage firms. Our findings suggest that brokerage firms located closer to a larger supply of potential analyst candidates are associated with higher analyst forecast accuracy, as observed by a lower forecast error. We further find that the degree of employed analysts' effort acts as a mediator between the supply of prospective analysts and the accuracy of their earnings forecasts.     

Seeing is believing: analysts’ corporate site visits

This study examines the impact of corporate site visits on analysts’ forecast accuracy based on a sample of such visits to Chinese listed firms during 2009–2012. We find that analysts who conduct visits (“visiting analysts”) have a greater increase in forecast accuracy than other analysts. Consistent with the notion that site visits facilitate analysts’ information acquisition through observing firms’ operations, we find that the results are stronger for manufacturing firms, firms with more tangible assets, and firms with more concentrated business lines. Moreover, we find that the effect of a site visit is greater when the site visit is an analyst-only visit, when the current visit is preceded by fewer visits, and when visiting analysts are based far from the visited firms. Furthermore, we find that site visits partially mitigate nonlocal analysts’ information disadvantage. Collectively, these results indicate that site visits are an important information acquisition activity for analysts.     

The effect of restatements on analyst behavior

This paper examines how changes in the credibility of financial reporting affect analyst behavior. Using a sample of restatement firms experiencing a substantial change in credibility over 1997–2006, we document that restatements have a long‐lived effect on analyst behavior and that analysts differentiate between restatements caused by irregularities and those caused by errors. We find that while irregularity restatement firms exhibit a reduction in analyst coverage and forecast accuracy and an increase in forecast dispersion in the post‐restatement period, other restatement firms exhibit only an increase in forecast error. Finally, we find evidence to suggest that remedial actions reduce the effect of irregularity restatements on analyst behavior. Overall, these results are consistent with the notion that restatements affect analyst behavior in forming judgements regarding subsequent earnings announcements.     

The characteristics of individual analysts’ forecasts in Europe

This study investigates the determinants of financial analysts’ forecasts differential accuracy in 14 different European stock markets. Using the I/B/E/S Detail History Database, I find that European financial analysts forecast accuracy is positively associated with analyst firm specific experience. Forecast accuracy is negatively associated with the number of countries followed by analysts and the age of the forecast. Surprisingly, I find no relationship between forecast accuracy and analysts’ job experience and the size of the bank employing the analyst.     

Do Bank‐Affiliated Analysts Benefit from Lending Relationships?

This paper investigates whether private information from lending activities improves the forecast accuracy of bank‐affiliated analysts. Using a matched sample design, matching by affiliated bank or borrower, we demonstrate that the forecast accuracy of bank‐affiliated analysts increases after the followed firm borrows from the affiliated bank. We also find that the increase in forecast accuracy is more pronounced for borrowers with greater information asymmetry and bad news, and for deals with financial covenants. Last, we find that the informational advantage of bank‐affiliated analysts exists only when the affiliated banks serve as lead arrangers, not merely as participating lenders. Overall, our evidence suggests that information flows from commercial banking to equity research divisions within financial conglomerates.     

Analysts' forecasts of Japanese firms' earnings: additional evidence

This article examines analysts' forecasts of Japanese firms' earnings during Japan's economic burst period in the 1990s. Using the evidence of analyst earnings forecasts in the United States as a benchmark, the article documents the following three findings. First, whereas the forecast accuracy of U.S. analysts following U.S. firms improves over time, the forecast accuracy of U.S. and Japanese analysts following Japanese firms does not. Second, whereas decreases in forecast errors of U.S. analysts following U.S. firms are best explained by decreases in forecast bias of the analysts, increases in forecast errors of U.S. and Japanese analysts following Japanese firms are best explained by increases in the frequency of losses experienced by Japanese firms. Third, Japanese analysts forecast earnings less accurately than do U.S. analysts. These findings reflect the difficulty of producing accurate earnings forecasts during economic downturns. They also suggest that Japanese analysts are more bound than their U.S. counterparts by cultural ties that impede forecast accuracy.     

The behavior of financial analysts during the Asian financial crisis in Indonesia,Korea, Malaysia,and Thailand

This study investigates the behavior of a potentially influential class of market participants, the stock analysts, around the period of market crashes in four Asian countries. We find that analysts not only failed to anticipate the weaknesses in the firms they covered before the crash, they also failed to sufficiently adjust their forecasts after these markets crashed. Throughout the entire period of the study, the magnitudes of forecast errors were several times to that observed in the pre-crash period. However, we also do not find evidence of panic or herding on a large scale. Other issues investigated in this paper include the changes in coverage, changes in forecasts accuracy, the extent analysts agree and the patterns of their convergence for the sample. We also compare analyst forecasts for large versus small firms, and for high- versus low-growth/quality firms. A contribution to the literature is the cataloguing of models that may provide explanations for investors' expectations during a market crash.     

IFRS adoption and analysts’ earnings forecasts: Australian evidence

We study 145 large listed Australian firms to explore the impact of international financial reporting standards (IFRS) adoption on the properties of analysts’ forecasts and the role of firm disclosure about IFRS impact. We find that analyst forecast accuracy improves, and there is no significant change in dispersion in the adoption year, suggesting that analysts coped effectively with transition to IFRS. However, we do not observe the expected relationship between firms’ IFRS impact disclosures in their financial statements issued at the end of the transition year with forecast error and dispersion in the adoption year. The results question the timeliness and usefulness of financial statement disclosure, even in a setting where disclosure was mandated by accounting standards (AASB 1047 and AASB 1) and firms had strong incentives to provide information to analysts.     

Mandatory disclosure of comment letters and analysts' forecasts

Comment letters (CLs) have been adopted as the main supervision mechanism for information disclosure by the two main Chinese stock exchanges since 2013. Both CLs and firms' responses have been publicly disclosed since the end of 2014. Using nonfinancial listed firms from 2013 to 2019 as our sample, we investigate the impact of CLs and their mandatory disclosure on analysts' forecast quality. The results show that, in the pre-disclosure period, there is no significant relation between CLs and analysts' forecast quality. However, in the post-disclosure period, CLs are positively (negatively) correlated with analysts' forecast accuracy (optimism). The quality of analysts' forecasts is much higher when CLs contain more questions. In addition, the impact of CLs is larger for samples with a lower percentage of star analysts or samples with higher earnings volatility. CL recipients tend to disclose more information on their internal and external risks, which can offer additional information to analysts.     

Before an Analyst Becomes an Analyst: Does Industry Experience Matter?

Using hand‐collected biographical information on financial analysts from 1983 to 2011, we find that analysts making forecasts on firms in industries related to their preanalyst experience have better forecast accuracy, evoke stronger market reactions to earning revisions, and are more likely to be named Institutional Investor all‐stars. Plausibly exogenous losses of analysts with related industry experience have real financial market implications—changes in firms’ information asymmetry and price reactions are significantly larger than those of other analysts. Overall, industry expertise acquired from preanalyst work experience is valuable to analysts, consistent with the emphasis placed on their industry knowledge by institutional investors.     

The effects of analysts’ tax expense forecast accuracy on corporate tax avoidance: An international analysis

A spotlight has recently been cast on the role of analysts as monitors of corporate tax planning, but investigations beyond the US are rare. After extension to the international setting, I investigate whether the strength of investor protection impacts the relationship between analysts’ tax expense forecast accuracy and tax avoidance. Using a sample from 24 countries, I find that firms with high analysts’ tax expense forecast accuracy engage in lower levels of tax avoidance than firms with low forecast accuracy; this relationship is greater for firms in countries with weaker investor protection. These findings suggest that the extent of country-level investor protection substitutes for firm-level governance in constraining managerial incentives for tax avoidance.     

Capitalized intangibles and financial analysts

We examine whether firms that capitalize a higher proportion of their underlying intangible assets have higher analyst following, lower dispersion of analysts’ earnings forecasts and more accurate earnings forecasts relative to firms that capitalize a lower proportion. Under Australian generally accepted accounting principles, capitalization of intangible assets has become increasingly ‘routine’ since the late 1980s. It is predicted that this experience leads Australian analysts to expect firms with relatively more certain intangible investments to signal this fact by capitalizing intangible assets. Our results are consistent with this. We find that capitalization of intangible assets is associated with higher analyst following and lower absolute earnings forecast error for firms with a stock of underlying intangible assets. Our tests suggest a weaker association between capitalization and lower earnings forecast dispersion. We conclude that there are benefits for analysts, for management to have the option to capitalize intangible assets. These findings suggest that IAS 38 Intangible Assets and AASB 138 Intangible Assets reduce the usefulness of financial statements.     

Financial ratios used by equity analysts in Mexico and stock returns

A sample of recommendation reports by equity analysts covering Mexican publicly traded firms in Mexico is studied. We propose a set of “most preferred” financial ratios from this sample. It is found that the most preferred ratios by equity analysts, a group of sophisticated users, are not those ratios typically covered in financial textbooks. Moreover, by using panel regression analysis, we test the relationship between financial ratios and leading stock returns during the 1995–2011 period. Overall, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, the results show that estimates of financial ratios most preferred by equity analysts have predictive power on 1-year future stock returns. We find no evidence of predictive power on 2-year stock returns.