Do interest rate options contain information about excess returns?

There is strong empirical evidence that long-term interest rates contain a time-varying risk premium. Options may contain valuable information about this risk premium because their prices are sensitive to the underlying interest rates. We use the joint time series of swap rates and interest rate option prices to estimate dynamic term structure models. The risk premiums that we estimate using option prices are better able to predict excess returns for long-term swaps over short-term swaps. Moreover, in contrast to the previous literature, the most successful models for predicting excess returns have risk factors with stochastic volatility. We also show that the stochastic volatility models we estimate using option prices match the failure of the expectations hypothesis.     

The implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand: What factors affect the 90-day bank bill rate?

This paper discusses the implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand and its flow-on effects on the 90-day bank bill rate over the 1999–2005 period. The effects of external factors are considered as well. Our findings indicate that the maturity spectrum ratio exerted a positive effect on the 90-day bank bill rate while the allotment ratio did not. This interest rate had a tendency to revert to the level set by its Australian counterpart, though at a relatively slow speed. No such link exists between the NZ 90-day rate and the U.S. 90-day rate. Neither the maturity spectrum nor the allotment ratio contributed to the volatility of the most important short-term interest rate in New Zealand.     

Has the ECB increased interest rates too soon?

Even though the Eurozone recovery is far from entrenched, the ECB decided to raise interest rates towards the end of 2005 and another hike is expected soon. Those in the ECB who have been looking for a reason to start tightening for some time can point to an inflation rate that remains stubbornly above target as a justification. In this article we find that the price rises of non‐energy industrial goods ‐ particularly those for clothing and footwear ‐ have remained very sticky when compared to the deflation seen in countries like the UK. A lack of competitive forces may be an issue ‐ the impact of China and India on goods prices does not seem to be fully feeding through to consumers. And weak productivity in the distribution sector may have prevented retailers from driving down prices to the same extent as in the UK. Does the current ECB action form the start of a prolonged tightening cycle as seen in the US? Despite worries over asset price and credit growth ‐ and here we argue that the ECB's reliance on monetary aggregates as a signal of impending inflation is misguided ‐ there is a possibility that the ECB has acted at the same time that inflation is finally set to subside. Consequently, we expect a "wait and see" approach to further moves, and unless growth comes in much stronger than the 2.2% we expect in 2006, rates should end the year at around 2½%.     

Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union

Governments are confronted with the growing realization that they face fiscal limits on the size of debt and deficits relative to GDP. These fiscal limits invalidate Bohn's criterion for fiscal sustainability, which allows explosive debt relative to GDP, eventually violating any fiscal limit. We derive restrictions on a fiscal rule, necessary for the government to eliminate explosive behavior. These restrictions require that the response of the primary surplus to debt be relatively strong, and that the primary surplus be cointegrated with both debt and output. We test these empirical implications for a panel of eleven EMU countries, and find that they are satisfied, implying that fiscal policy does not create explosive behavior.     

Is the first UK rate hike imminent?

• The events of the past couple of months have led us to push out our call for the first UK rate hike from February 2016 to May 2016. The financial market turmoil of late summer, increasingly dovish commentary from the MPC, the enduring strength of sterling and the likelihood of lower inflation over the next six months are all factors which point to the first rate hike coming later.
• This is a modal forecast which is consistent with our baseline forecast playing out. But the escalating downside risks would imply a mean forecast which shows the first rate hike coming even later still and the subsequent path of monetary tightening being shallower. This explains why the expectations of financial markets may appear to be more bearish than our own.

     

The future of the dollar–euro exchange rate

Monetary unification in Europe is expected to produce a major new international currency, which may compete with the U.S. dollar as the currency of choice in foreign exchange transactions, financial asset markets and central bank reserves. This study considers two important issues regarding the euro: its global role as medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value and its position relative to the U.S. dollar. Among the main considerations are differences in cyclical behavior, inflation differentials, trade patterns and capital flows, and risk-return assessments. External diversification of private portfolios and of central banks’ reserve holdings will play a key role in determining the euro’s exchange rate. Overall, despite its rough start, we argue that the euro may emerge as a challenger to the U.S. dollar.     

Labour's interest in corporate governance in the UK: are workers on the board back on the agenda?

This article investigates labour's interests in corporate governance in the UK. Contemporary political economy conditions generate a confluence of factors that stimulates new demands and engagement strategies. Labour actors endeavour to forge corporate governance innovation through utilising cultural institutions in the regulation of firms in capitalist markets.     

Managed migration? Nurse recruitment and the consequences of state policy

This article analyses the main trends in nurse migration to the UK and highlights the importance of state policy as a major influence shaping employer utilisation of migrant nurses. The introduction of the points‐based immigration system is considered, and the consequences for migrant nurses, employers and trade unions are examined.     

Is your maternity policy ready for the '90s?

The increasing number of women in the work force has forced some companies to take a critical look at their maternity policies. Direct costs for these policies are hard to measure. But, demographic, social and legislative pressures may force companies that haven't addressed this issue to do so in the '90s.     

Are central banks really breaking the (policy) rules?

• ? Looking at the strength of the global economy, it's no surprise that simple policy rules suggest that interest rates in some advanced economies are much too low and/or that several rate hikes would be needed in 2018 to avoid falling further behind the curve. Nonetheless, we expect central banks to respond cautiously and we see a slower pace of tightening than the consensus view .
• ? Policy rules, such as the Taylor Rule, have long been considered a useful guide to the potential path for policy rates. But while it suggests that current US, Eurozone and Australian central bank rates are broadly appropriate, it signals that UK, Canadian, and Swedish rates should be substantially higher. Based on our economic forecasts, Taylor Rules suggest that the central banks in the US, Eurozone, Canada and Australia will all need to raise intertest rates by around 100bps by end‐2018.
• ? However, there are several reasons not to draw strong conclusions from such point estimates. First, the Taylor Rule requires estimates of two unobservable variables – the output gap and the natural rate of interest – which cannot be estimated precisely.
• ? Second, using models that were designed to predict US policy responses in the 1990s to forecast central banks' behaviour today is likely to be misleading. Meanwhile, inferring central banks' reaction functions from recent policy rate moves to assess the future policy path is fraught with difficulties. Not only have interest rates been broadly unchanged for the bulk of the post‐financial crisis period, but policymakers have provided other forms of policy support.
• ? Third, outside the US at least, Taylor Rules have historically pointed to persistently different policy rates from those observed, yet inflation has been well anchored.
• ? The upshot of all this is that we expect central banks in the advanced economies to err on the side of caution and anticipate interest rates rising less quickly than the consensus amongst economists.

     

How useful are no-arbitrage restrictions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates?

We develop a general framework for analyzing the usefulness of imposing parameter restrictions on a forecasting model. We propose a measure of the usefulness of the restrictions that depends on the forecaster’s loss function and that could be time varying. We show how to conduct inference about this measure. The application of our methodology to analyzing the usefulness of no-arbitrage restrictions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates reveals that: (1) the restrictions have become less useful over time; (2) when using a statistical measure of accuracy, the restrictions are a useful way to reduce parameter estimation uncertainty, but are dominated by restrictions that do the same without using any theory; (3) when using an economic measure of accuracy, the no-arbitrage restrictions are no longer dominated by atheoretical restrictions, but for this to be true it is important that the restrictions incorporate a time-varying risk premium.     

Forecasting exchange rate volatility using high-frequency data: Is the euro different?

We assess the performances of alternative procedures for forecasting the daily volatility of the euro’s bilateral exchange rates using 15 min data. We use realized volatility and traditional time series volatility models. Our results indicate that using high-frequency data and considering their long memory dimension enhances the performance of volatility forecasts significantly. We find that the intraday FIGARCH model and the ARFIMA model outperform other traditional models for all exchange rate series.     

The dynamics of US inflation: Can monetary policy explain the changes?

We investigate the relationship between monetary policy and inflation dynamics in the US using a medium scale structural model. The specification is estimated with Bayesian techniques and fits the data reasonably well. Policy shocks account for a part of the decline in inflation volatility; they have been less effective in triggering inflation responses over time and qualitatively account for the rise and fall in the level of inflation. A number of structural parameter variations contribute to these patterns.     

A hazard rate analysis of Russian commercial banks in the period 1994–1997

The number of commercial banks in Russia increased at a fast pace after the 1988 banking reform. Many of these banks lacked supervision and operated with dangerously low funding capital. After the 1995 liquidity crisis, many of these banks disappeared. In this paper, we investigate the determinants of the hazard rates of banks active on the Moscovian deposits market during the 1994–1997 period. We find that market share and duration have negatively affected the hazard rate, while the deposit interest rate has had a positive effect. The market share and interest rate effects are robust to controlling for ‘financial clans’.     

Exchange market pressure on the pound–dollar exchange rate: 1925–1931

This is a study of exchange market pressure against the pound sterling during the inter-war period. The main findings are that (a) the behavior of U.K. fundamentals relative to those of the U.S.A. helps to explain exchange market pressure against the pound; (b) during the run-up to devaluation in September 1931 the monetary authorities in the U.K. were acting to reduce domestic credit; but (c) additional pressure was brought against the pound from speculative sources. These findings relate to current thinking on the choice of exchange rate regime as even well-behaved fundamentals may not be sufficient to sustain a currency on its peg.     

Does pay for performance diminish intrinsic interest?

One concern with pay for individual performance (PFIP) is that it may undermine intrinsic interest, thus having little or no positive net influence on performance. A major basis for this concern is cognitive evaluation theory [CET; Deci and Ryan (1985), Intrinsic Motivation and Self-Determination in Human Behavior, New York: Plenum Press]. Most evidence on CET, however, comes from non-work settings and, even in that arena, there is debate regarding the undermining effect of PFIP. There is little workplace-based evidence on the validity of the undermining hypothesis and none that makes use of data on between-employer differences in PFIP. Also, a close reading of CET, reinforced by recent developments, suggests that PFIP plans could, under common workplace conditions, have a positive, rather than negative, influence on intrinsic interest. To our knowledge, there is no research that examines between-organization differences in PFIP and how they relate to employee intrinsic interest. There is also no research on whether employees having a preference for PFIP plans are likely to gravitate to organizations using such plans. To the extent such attraction–selection–attrition or sorting processes take place, the likelihood of detrimental consequences (e.g. diminished intrinsic interest) of PFIP plans due to mismatches between how the organization pays and how the employees are motivated should be less likely. We find no evidence of a detrimental effect of PFIP plans on intrinsic interest. Instead, intrinsic interest is actually higher under PFIP. We also find that organizations placing greater emphasis on PFIP plans tend to have employees with motivation orientations matching their PFIP plans, which may reduce the probability of a detrimental effect of PFIP.     

？interest：兴趣图片背后的大文章

从互联网整个历史来看，除了Facebook早期的表现，我们再也没有见过像Pinterest那样迅猛而强劲的增长速度。它的浏览量（PV，Pageviews）每个月都保持着50％的惊人增长，本月月浏览量已轻松跨过10亿大关     

A Dawn of Convergence?: Third sector policy regimes in the ‘Anglo-Saxon’ cluster

Abstract

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the third sector policy and regulatory regimes in the ‘Anglo-Saxon cluster’ have been subject to considerable policy churn. Comparing the reforms in the ‘meta-policies,’ regulations and financing in England, US, Canada and Australia, this analysis identifies both significant policy convergence and divergence. A new ideational landscape has emerged that is dominated by a focus on transparency, impact and social innovation. Convergence is not the whole story, however. In particular, the overarching meta-policies are absent, increasingly weak or divisive, suggesting a future characterized by the sporadic intervention of parochial politics and the likelihood of increased difference.     

Analysis of children’s interest in books and their reading levels depending on the education status of family

The reading rate is an important indicator of the development level of a country. The fundamental condition of being a developed country is having a sufficiently educated workforce, which, in turn, is directly related to reading abilities and habits. In modern society, which has been termed the “information age”, the fastest way to acquire knowledge is through reading. Reading habits are initially formed within the family. Subsequently, the desired reading objectives can be achieved through the positive contribution of the school and the child’s environment. A child with developed reading skills will have the targeted accumulation of knowledge and will be suitably positioned to attain success in their future education and professional lives. The ability to reach this objective easily is directly related to the guidance and encouragement of families in this regard. The results of this study indicate that there is a strong correlation between the levels of education of parents in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the reading habits that are given to children. For example, the results revealed that the children of 27 families with university and higher education levels read a total of 115 books, which is an average of 4.25 books per child on a monthly basis, whereas this figure was found to be 42 books, or an average of 1.82 in the 23 families with an education at high school level or below. The general purpose of the study is to determine the relationship between the reading habits of children and the education levels of their parents as well as the level of awareness of families in this respect. This is a qualitative study. The aim is to obtain in-depth and detailed data. The research is based on a case study, which is a qualitative research model. The examined case is that of North Cyprus.     

Authorized variance analysis with consumption rate

On the base of budget or plan information, comparing with actual results, making variance analysis, finding real reasons behind variance, this is important way of control and also important function of budget. However, without consideration of changes of environment, there are some limitations for static variance analysis with benchmark of plan data. Adjusting for benchmark according to actual condition, then doing variance analysis, these will improve utilization of variance analysis. Adjusted benchmark is often known as authorized cost/profit. For different understanding for authority concept, with RCA＇s （the abbreviation for Resource Consumption Accounting） view and numerical examples, this paper brings out the concept of consumption rate variance to promoting deeper understanding and analyzing reasons behind variance.