New revisionists and the Keynesian era in British economic policy

This article surveys the literature, which has argued that post‐1945 British economic policy should not be described as Keynesian. It attempts to apply explicit definitions of ‘Keynesian', ‘influence', and ‘the Treasury view'. It suggests that in post‐1945 monetary and fiscal policies, in the treatment of the balance of payments, and in attitudes to public expenditure, strong Keynesian influences can be detected. The idea of a ‘Keynesian era' should not be rejected and it is hinted that the failure to accelerate the growth rate, rather than the external dimension, caused the Keynesian era to unravel.     

Tracking the causes of eurozone external imbalances: new evidence and some policy implications

The paper assesses the contribution of key drivers of external imbalances in the Eurozone through the estimation of a panel-data Vector Autoregressive model over 1975–2011. Growth fluctuations, initially associated with demand booms triggered by unusually low interest rates, and later with demand contractions resulting from the crisis and policy adjustments, have played an important role in current account balance fluctuations. Changes in real exchange rates or unit labor costs have played a less important role. Demand shocks have contributed more to current account balance dynamics in the Eurozone periphery than in the core, whereas competitiveness has been a less prominent factor in the periphery but relatively more important in the core. Some broad policy implications of the findings for demand management in a currency union are discussed, including for fiscal policy coordination and macroprudential policies when union members face asymmetric shocks. The role of internal devaluation policies as a means of correcting external imbalances is also reassessed.     

企业生存状况与中国经济波动--基于动态新凯恩斯主义的视角

基于一个包含企业进入和退出的双重名义刚性NKMP－DSGE模型,考察了中国经济波动问题。研究发现,与已有研究相比,外生冲击可以通过影响企业进入和退出进而影响宏观经济。总需求冲击的贝叶斯脉冲响应函数显著支持了我国政府在金融危机期间采用非常规货币政策刺激经济的做法;进入成本冲击的贝叶斯脉冲响应函数表明,降低融资难度和融资成本,提高政府公共服务效率,将有利于新企业的建立和经济增长。这一结论显著支持了央行定向降准的做法。     

Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries

This paper extends the existing literature on the open economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve by incorporating three different factors of production, domestic labor and imported as well as domestically produced intermediate goods, into a general model which nests existing closed economy and open economy models. The model is estimated for nine euro area countries and the euro area aggregate. We find that the general specification of our model improves the fit of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve considerably compared to the closed economy specification. The estimates of the structural parameters of the model suggest strong heterogeneity in the degree of price rigidity across euro area counties. Furthermore, we find the degree of price rigidity to be systematically lower in the open economy specification than in the closed economy specification and also lower than in the general specification of our model.

On the cyclicality of schooling: theory and evidence

Economic theory indicates that opportunity- cost considerationstend to make schooling countercyclical whereas ability-to-payconsiderations have the opposite effect. We examine the collegeenrollment decisions of individuals in the US using the CurrentPopulation Survey and find that their propensity to enroll iscountercyclical. There seems to be significant substitutionduring the business cycle between human capital investment andcompeting economic activities.     

A theory of evidence based on audit assertions

Abstract. This paper refines a theory of audit evidence in light of recent research in philosophy of science. We improve the definition of confirming evidence and relate it to various audit opinions. Specifically, we identify explanations as a critical component linking evidence to audit assertions. An implication of our work is that professional audit standards setting should put increasing emphasis on the explanations underlying audit assessments. Résumé. Les auteurs perfectionnent une théorie relative à l'information probante à la lumière des travaux de recherche récents en philosophie de la science. Ils raffinent la définition de preuve de corroboration et la relient à diverses opinions du vérificateur. De façon précise, ils traitent les explications comme un élément critique reliant l'information probante aux assertions auxquelles s'intéresse le vérificateur. Leurs travaux les mènent entre autres à la conclusion que les normes professionnelles de vérification devraient accorder une place de plus en plus grande aux explications sous-jacentes à ces assertions.     

New Keynesian Explanations of Cyclical Movements in Aggregate Inflation and Regional Inflation Differentials

What determines the cyclical behavior of aggregate inflation and regional inflation differentials? The answer has strong implications for monetary policy and in Europe for the Stability and Growth Pact. In the United States, inflation rates move pro-cyclically, and across the Euro Area, inflation differentials are positively correlated with growth differentials. This suggests that demand shocks are the primary determinants of the cyclical behavior of aggregate inflation and regional inflation differentials. In this paper, we discuss New Keynesian explanations of these correlations, and we argue that demand shocks are either missing or inadequately modeled in the in typical New Keynesian model.     

On some relationships among capital theory,growth and the theory of international trade

Zusammenfassung über einige Beziehungen zwischen Kapitaltheorie, Wachstum und der Theorie des internationalen Handels. —Wenn die gegenw?rtige Generation den Nutzen zukünftiger Generationen niedriger bewertet als ihren eigenen, kann in Modellen mit rationaler Entscheidung der Freihandel den langfristigen Konsum je Kopf verringern. Diese M?glichkeit entsteht, weil eine solche Mindersch?tzung dazu führt, da\ der reale Zinssatz h?her ist als die Wachstumsrate der Volkswirtschaft; die klassische Kapitaltheorie dagegen geht davon aus, da\ in einer ?rationalen? Gesellschaft die beiden Gr?\en angeglichen werden, so da\ der Handel zukünftige Generationen nicht schlechter stellen kann. Sind Zinssatz und Wachstumsrate gleich und ist Handel zul?ssig, so ergibt sich in diesen ZweiSektor-Wachstumsmodellen kein Handel, es sei denn, es werden Risikofaktoren eingeführt; aber dann k?nnen Kapitalbewegungen das Gesetz der komparativen Vorteile verletzen.

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Résumé Sur quelques relations entre la théorie de capital, la croissance et la théorie du commerce international. —Si les générations d’aujourd’hui escomptent l’utilité des générations à venir en relations avec leur propre utilité, puis le commerce libre peut réduire la consommation par tête à long terme dans les modèles de prendre des décisions rationales. Cette possibilité arrive parce qu’ une telle opération d’escompte rend possible que le taux d’intérêt réel excède le taux d’accroissement de l’économie; cependant la théorie de capital classique suggère qu’une société ?rationale? égalera ces deux taux de sorte que le commerce ne peut pas toucher les générations à venir. Avec ces taux égaux permettant le commerce de compte courant on ne cause pas un commerce dans des modèles de croissance de deux secteurs à moins que le risque ne soit introduit; mais puis les transactions de compte de capital peut falsifier le Loi de l’Avantage Comparatif.

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Resumen Sobre algunas relaciones entre la teorfa del capital, crecimiento y la teoría del comercio internacional. —Si las generaciones presentes descuentan la utilidad de futuras generaciones en forma relativa a la propia, entonces el libre comercio puede reducir el consumo per cápita de largo plazo en modelos de toma de decisiones rationales. Esta posibilidad surge debido a que este tipo de descuento permite que la tasa real de interés excéda la tasa de crecimiento de la economía. Sin embargo, la teoría del capital clásica sugiere que una sociedad ?rational? igualará estas dos tasas, de tal manera que el comercio no pueda afectar futuras generaciones. Siendo estas dos tasas iguales y permitiendo comercio de cuenta corriente, no se produce comercio en modelos de crecimiento de dos sectores al menos que se introduzca riesgo; pero entonces transacciones de cuenta de capital pueden falsificar la ley de la ventalja comparativa.

     

Rational spirits and the post Keynesian macrotheory of microeconomics

Summary The argument that post Keynesian theory rejects rationality and maximization as a basis of agent behaviour and is thus non-rational and lacking micro-foundations is contrasted by reference to Keynes' use of his early work on probability in the General Theory. Instead of presuming rational choice over perfectly known events, post Keynesian theory builds on Keynes' explanation of agents' rational beliefs in uncertain propositions about their knowledge of the world. These rational spirits lead to the recognition of the macro constraints to individual action or a macrofoundations of microeconomics linked to the role of money and to the role of liquidity preference as both a measure of rational belief and a determinant of money prices which equate the rates of return on all existing and newly produced goods. In this equilibrium prices will generally diverge from costs of production, in contrast to perfect competition but in concordance with the post Keynesian microeconomic theories of mark-up pricing.Comments by L. Hoogduin are gratefully acknowledged. He is relieved from any responsibility for my impressionistic presentation of Keynes' views on probability.     

Explaining the size differences of exporter premia: theory and evidence

Two decades of research have established pronounced exporter productivity premia (EPP) and exporter size premia (ESP). Yet, we do not know why such exporter premia differ so widely in magnitude across countries or sectors? We take this question to the theory and to the data. We derive the sectoral EPP and ESP in a standard heterogeneous firms trade model and apply the insights from the model to guide our empirical investigation of detailed Danish firm-level data. We show that a significant share of the observed variation in EPP and ESP across sectors can be accounted for by sector differences in the underlying variation in productivity dispersion, variable trade costs, the ratio of fixed export costs to fixed costs of production, and the elasticity of demand.     

房地产虚拟资产特性研究报告

在现代经济中,房地产不仅是一种重要的、能够直接用于生产和消费的物质财富,是家庭财富和企业资产的重要组成部分,其虚拟资产的特性也在不断增强,从而使房地产成为除金融资产以外的另一种重要的虚拟资产。房地产的虚拟资产特性主要表现为由资本化定价方式决定的价格的强波动性。同时。抵押贷款的证券化加强了房地产与金融市场的联系;房地产投资的国际化使各国房地产市场更紧密的联系在一起。     

虚拟经济的界定及其理论构架

在全球范围内，虚拟经济的发展使宏观经济运行方式发生了深刻变化，引发一系列新问题，如虚拟资产定价问题、虚拟经济波动问题、虚拟经济与实际经济的相互影响问题、经济的增长问题、宏观经济政策的调整问题等。对此，西方主流经济学一直无法给出有力解释。为解决这些问题，国内外许多研究者开始了新的尝试，开创了一个新的研究领域，即虚拟经济理论研究。本文的目的就是对前人的研究进行梳理，对虚拟经济的含义及研究范围进行界定，在此基础上，将他们的研究整合到一起建立起起虚拟经济研究的理论构架。     

Geography and firm exports: new evidence on the nature of sunk costs

This paper presents an examination of the trading patterns of individual firms, looking at their coverage of export markets and movements into and out of destinations. This analysis is made possible by access to a new survey data set of Irish firms, which includes detailed information on firm characteristics and on the destinations of their exports over a 2-year period. In line with Eaton et al. (Am Econ Rev 94:150–154, 2004), we find that a large number of firms serve only the domestic market and many exporting firms export to a single foreign market. Although there is little movement of firms into and out of exporting, firms’ involvement in individual export markets is much more dynamic. Over one-third of firms change their market coverage, usually by entering or exiting one additional market. This is consistent with an interpretation where the bulk of any sunk cost encountered in exporting is incurred during the initial entry to the export market. Subsequent entry to additional markets may be made easier by prior export experience, which could help reduce the sunk cost of extending market coverage.     

Environmental policy and convexity of climate change damage functions: an experiment with New Keynesian DSGE model

International Economics and Economic Policy - The paper seeks out to investigate how varying degree of convexity of climate change damage function affect economic output and the dynamic response of...