Conservation capital and sustainable economic growth

An endogenous growth model, which links pollution to ineffectiveinput-use, is developed to examine the potential for achievingbalanced growth while preserving the environment through investmentin conservation capital. We derive conditions under which individualpreferences for environmental quality and private incentivesfor investment in conservation capital can lead to non-decreasingenvironmental quality with balanced growth even in the absenceof environmental regulations. Additionally, conditions underwhich investment in conservation capital can enable an environmentallyregulated economy to achieve a higher rate of sustainable balancedgrowth than otherwise are analysed.     

Health investment,physical capital accumulation,and economic growth

This paper analyzes the effect of health investment, and hence of health capital, on physical capital accumulation and long-run economic growth in an extended Ramsey model with an Arrow–Romer production function and a Grossman (1972) utility function. The paper concludes that economic growth is related to both the health growth rate and the health level. While growth in health capital always facilitates economic growth, the gross effect of health level on the rate of economic growth depends on how it affects physical capital accumulation. If the negative effect of health on economic growth through its influence on physical capital accumulation is not taken into consideration, then health level has a positive effect on the rate of economic growth by improving the efficiency of labor production. However, since health investment may crowd out physical capital investment and thus influence physical capital accumulation, excessive investment in health may have a negative effect on economic growth. Empirical tests of these theoretical hypotheses using panel data from individual provinces of China produce results that are consistent with our theoretical conclusions.     

An Empirical Analysis of Analysts' Capital Expenditure Forecasts: Evidence from Corporate Investment Efficiency*

We examine whether the information conveyed in a relatively new analyst research output—capital expenditure (capex) forecasts—affects corporate investment efficiency. We find that firms with analyst capex forecasts exhibit higher investment efficiency. This effect is stronger when the forecasts are issued by analysts with higher ability or greater industry knowledge. Moreover, the effect of capex forecasts on investment efficiency varies with the signals they convey about future growth opportunities—positive-growth signals are more effective in reducing underinvestment, while negative-growth signals are more effective in reducing overinvestment. Cross-sectional tests suggest that these effects operate at least in part through both a financing channel and a monitoring channel. Taken together, our results suggest that analysts' capex forecasts convey useful information about firms' growth opportunities to managers and investors, which can facilitate efficient investment.     

FDI of German Companies During Globalization and Deglobalization

Based on micro-level data of German companies from 1873 to 1927, we identified horizontal and vertical FDI applying a Knowledge-Capital model and analyzed individual FDI decisions. Our KC model revealed that market-driven FDI predominated; however, wage gaps and differences in human capital stimulated cost-driven FDI flows, which accounted for up to 10% of total FDI. On an individual level, large companies with high profitability conducted more FDI. Higher tariffs after WWI enhanced FDI, as companies could circumvent trade barriers—but declining openness reduced FDI. In spite of disintegration after WWI, the propensity to invest increased due to higher market concentration and firm specific investment patterns—albeit industry agglomeration effects were of minor importance.     

Health,education, and economic growth in China: Empirical findings and implications

This empirical analysis examines the augmented Mankiw, Romer and Weil's model which considers both health and education in human capital in the framework of Chinese economy. We consider the relationship between per capita real GDP growth and the physical capital, human capital, and health investment in the production function. Panel data models are used in the estimation based on the provincial data from 1978–2005. The empirical evidence shows that both health and education have positive significant effects on economic growth. The results also show that the interaction of health and education stock will not reduce their impact on growth and there is perhaps a trade-off between two forms of human capital investment.     

人力资本投资结构及其对经济增长的影响——基于扩展MRW模型的内生增长理论与实证研究

本文针对已有的关于人力资本投资的理论研究往往只关注人力资本投资数量而忽视人力投资结构研究的现状,把教育和健康看作两种资本,分析了人力资本投资的具体构成形式。假设人力资本由教育资本和健康资本按照Cobb—Douglas生产技术形式组合生成。通过扩展Mankiw、Romer和Weil（1992）模型（简称MRW模型）,构建了一个新的内生经济增长模型。理论分析结果表明：人力资本投资结构制约着经济增长,人力资本积累和存量都对经济产生重要影响。最后文章以理论分析为基础构建计量经济模型,利用1978—2004年中国29个省、市、自治区的面板数据实证分析了人力资本的积累和存量以及教育资本和健康资本对中国经济增长的影响。实证结果表明较好地支持了本文的理论拓展分析。     

浅谈人力资本出资的意义、风险和控制

随着经济的高速发展,人力资本出资已经是大势所趋.文章通过讨论人力资本出资在当前企业经营中所起到的积极作用揭示了人力资本出资的必然性,讨论了由于人力资本的特性所导致的人力资本出资所特有的一些风险以及对于这些风险的控制及防范措施.     

A general equilibrium evaluation of trade and industrial policy changes in Austria and Hungary

A General Equilibrium Evaluation of Trade and Industrial Policy Changes in Austria and Hungary. — Two linked static CGE models — based on 1990 data — are used to study effects of trade liberalization, problems of migration and changes in industrial policy in Austria and Hungary. The huge differences in factor endowment (Hungary is relatively labour abundant, Austria is relatively capital abundant) gives Hungary a strong competitive position in the production and export of lowwage products. Austria should have comparative advantages in products with high capital content when trading with Hungary. Although trade liberalization helps to improve welfare, much stronger effects follow from factor migration and capital accumulation through the transformation process in Hungary.     

农民富裕的源泉——农民人力资本投资决策分析

文章依据现代人力资本理论，分析了农民收入增长的制约因素，讨论了人力资本与农民收入增长的逻辑关系。认为农村人力资本存量严重稀缺，农村难以形成内生增长能力，造成农民收入增长缓慢。解决农民收入增长问题的关键是要加强农民人力资本投资。因为人力资本是给个人和社会带来富足的源泉，人力资本投入是农民收入增长的重要因素，因此加强人力资本投资是解决农民收入增长问题的必然选择。     

家族企业创业元老的契约化治理机制——一个基于人力资本风险投资的视角

文章利用人力资本风险投资理论,对家族企业创业元老的契约化治理问题进行了深入分析,探讨了家族企业创业元老的人力资本投资风险,并根据物质资本资产定价模型,建立了一个基于风险的创业元老人力资本定价模型,模型表明：在家族企业成长期,家族企业家和创业元老人力资本所有者之间需要建立基于能力的非人格化契约,实现由感情定价向市场定价的转变。但要想实现新契约的顺利达成和执行,对创业元老人力资本投资的风险补偿是必不可少的。     

Contribution of interest rate control to China’s economic development

China’s economy has grown at an unprecedented pace since 1978, which has resulted in a sustained improvement in the average living standard in China. A theoretical model is developed in the present study to analyze the role of interest rate control in China’s economic growth, where investment is primarily determined by interest rates available to firms and entrepreneurs. When the central bank regulates the interest rates and makes them below the equilibrium rate, high-level investment activities boost economic growth and introduce new technologies into the economy, which in turn promotes growth in labour productivity. As the current marginal product of capital is much higher than the interest rate, the output growth is much faster than consumption growth and exports become an important part of the economy. To maintain competitiveness of exports over a longer period, it is necessary to keep exchange rates low, which results in large foreign exchange reserves. When the export sector is losing its competitiveness edge due to increased labour costs and exports cannot digest the difference between output growth and consumption plus investment growth, interest rate control may lose its positive impact on economic growth.     

The role of infrastructure in China’s regional economic growth

This study investigates the relationship between infrastructure capital and China's regional economic growth for the period 1990–2013. Four types of infrastructure are considered: electricity generating capacity, roadway, railway, and telecommunications. Using a vector error correction model, we find mixed support across time period and region for the contribution of infrastructure investment to economic development. With regard to road construction in lagging regions in particular, the impact appears to have become negative under a program of ramped up efforts. The results resonate with the theoretical literature on the inverse U-shaped relationship between infrastructure investment and growth which posits a “crowding-out effect” of private capital when infrastructure investment becomes too dominant.     

资本账户开放的门槛效应及路径研究

文章基于70个国家面板数据,实证检验了开放资本账户的增长效应。研究结果表明,资本账户开放具有国别差异,高收入国家开放资本账户的增长效应显著大于中低收入国家。在引入制度质量、货币政策、财政政策、对外开放度和金融发展5个初始条件指标建立动态门槛模型,研究发现,资本账户开放对经济增长的影响是非线性的,初始条件较低时资本账户开放不利于经济增长,当初始条件越过门槛值后,资本账户开放表现出积极的增长效应。结合跨境资本异质性和门槛效应,进一步发现开放直接投资的门槛最低,经济效应最大;开放债务投资的门槛最高,经济效应最小;开放股权投资的门槛效应介于前二者之间。经验分析为中国资本账户开放条件以及路径提供了参考。     

Aggregate fluctuations in a monetary two-sector endogenous growth model

This paper examines the implications of a monetary human capital investment endogenous growth model for aggregate economic fluctuations. In addition, an exogenous growth model with a similar human capital investment specification is included in the analysis to compare the business cycle properties of the endogenous growth model with that of the exogenous growth model. The money introduced into the models allows for the liquidity effects. It is found that both the endogenous and exogenous human capital investment growth models are able to capture the business cycle properties of U.S. data closely. Some sensitivity analysis results are provided. The theory predicts that the stochastic properties of the human capital shocks affect the ability of the models to generate the business cycle facts.     

The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities

Using a panel of Chinese cities over the period 1991–2010, we examine the determinants of economic growth, focusing on the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and human capital. Consistent with the predictions of a human capital-augmented Solow model, we find that the growth rate (along the path to the steady-state income level) of per capita GDP is negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with investment rate in physical capital and human capital. We find that FDI has a positive effect on the per capita GDP growth rate and this effect is intensified by the human capital endowment of the city. The latter suggests that one way that human capital contributes to growth is to serve as a facilitator for technology transfers stemming from FDI. Furthermore, we find some suggestive evidence that the FDI-human capital complementary effect is stronger for technology-intensive FDI than for labor-intensive FDI. Our results are robust to alternative measures of human capital, model specifications, and estimation methods.     

LONG TERM MOVEMENT OF CAPITAL FORMATION —The Japanese Case, 1868–1940—

The high rate of investment sustained by a high rate of saving has accelerated continuously the rapid growth in the Japanese economy since the Meiji period. This paper presents the estimation of annual capital formation by sector-public and private-and by type of investment. The estimates have revealed many facts regarding the relation between some specific aspects of economic growth and the rate of capital formation; the different roles of capital formation attained in different sectors; and the relation between precedence and lag observed among the difflerent types of investment.     

中国农村投资与农民收入和经济增长——对两类农村投资效果的分析

保持经济较快增长、实现农民持续增收是我国经济政策的核心目标.大量研究表明,投资是实现我国经济保持增长的重要动力,但不同投资的性质决定了其效果和影响的层面相差很大,文章认为投资发生地的不同也将导致投资的效果有所差异.本文利用计量手段,定量的经验分析了我国1990-2010年的数据,比较分析了农村人力资本投资和农村固定资产投资对农民收入、经济增长这两大指标的影响结果,发现固定资产投资更具有滞后效应,人力资本投资总效应更强的结论,并对此进行了解释.     

二元结构视角下我国人力资本投资差异及矫正对策

人力资本投资是经济增长的重要源泉。由于种种原因,我国人力资本投资城乡差异较大,并有逐渐扩大趋势。文章在阐述二元结构理论的基础上,分析了城乡居民家庭对人力资本投资的差异以及政府对人力资本投资的差异,提出了我国矫正人力资本投资城乡差异的对策。     

Conjunctuur,structuur en economische groei

Summary In cross section analyses of economic growth, based on the Cobb-Douglas production function, only a minor part of the differences between the growth rates of the countries is explained by changes in the volumes of labour and capital input. In this article an effort has been made to reduce the unexplained residuals with the help of a simple growth model, containing four new elements as compared with the traditional analyses, based on the application of the Cobb-Douglas production function only. Firstly, to the concept of investment has been added a qualitative dimension, which represents its more or less traditional or “progressive” character, with which is meant the extent to which the latest technological findings have been applied in it. Secondly, the change in volume and quality of capital input has been considered as an endogenous variable. Thirdly, thefluctuation in economic growth has been introduced,via the investment equation, as an explaining variable of thepace of economic growth. The underlying philosophy is that the entrepreneurs base their quantitative and qualitative investment decisions on the pace of economic growth, corrected by the extent to which they fear set-backs in that growth. This fear is assumed to be founded on their past experience in this respect, as represented by a fluctuation-index. Finally, the sectorial structure of the economy has been introduced into the aggregate production function as an explaining variable of the autonomous trend of gross national product. The model has been tested in a cross section analysis for 17 Western European and North American countries, with the least squares method. The result was very satisfactory.

---

---

Dit artikel vormt gedeeltelijk een weerslag van door de schrijver op het Nederlandsch Economisch Instituut onder auspici?n van N.V. Philips en Unilever N.V. verrichte groeistudies.     

War and socialism: why eastern Europe fell behind between 1950 and 1989†

This article reconsiders the relative growth performance of centrally planned economies in the broader context of postwar growth in Europe. It reports a new dataset of revised estimates for investment rates in eastern European countries between 1950 and 1989. Complemented with data on other growth determinants, this evidence is used to re‐evaluate the socialist growth record in a conditional convergence framework with a panel of 24 European countries. After controlling for relative backwardness, investment rates, and improvements in human capital, the findings show that centrally planned economies underperformed due to their relative inefficiency only after the postwar golden age. In the 1950s and 1960s, eastern Europe was falling behind mainly due to relatively low levels of investment and weak reconstruction dynamics. Both are explained, in part, by the lack of labour‐supply flexibility that, in turn, resulted from the comparatively much larger negative impact of the war on population growth in eastern Europe.