South African Exporters and the Global Crisis: Intensive Margin Shock,Extensive Margin Hangover

This paper examines how changes at the intensive (established exporters exporting existing products to established markets) and the extensive (new exporters, products or markets) margins contribute to South African export growth and how this was affected by the global financial crisis. We find that the intensive margin is the more important contributor to export growth, contributing more than three quarters of observed growth. The intensive margin contracted significantly during the global financial crisis of 2009 but bounced back to pre‐crisis levels quickly. However, the impacts on the extensive margin persisted after the crisis with lower levels of entry of firms, new products and new destinations. The short‐term impact of the crisis was mitigated by the concentration of South African exports among larger, more productive super‐exporters. However, the fall in entry of new firms, products and destinations as a result of the crisis may mean that this concentration persists, and, at least over the next few years, South Africa does not diversify and broaden its exports.     

金融危机后新贸易保护主义对我国外贸的影响及其应对

国际金融危机后,全球范围内新贸易保护主义抬头且呈现加速发展的趋势。我国在这场新贸易保护主义中受害最深,其对我国外贸的影响主要表现在造成我国出口市场萎缩和对外贸易摩擦频繁爆发、恶化我国的外贸环境、冲击我国的加工贸易以及阻碍我国经济健康协调发展等方面。因此,必须加强政府的宏观调控职能、发挥行业协会的协调监督职能、强化出口企业的市场主体功能以应对新贸易保护主义。     

Trade Destruction and Trade Diversion: Evidence from China

Over the past three decades, we have seen a dramatic increase in the incidence of temporary trade barriers such as antidumping duties and countervailing duties. China has been at the receiving end of a large number of such measures. In this paper, we study how China's exports to its major trade partners have been affected when its major trade partners have used these measures either against China or against other countries. We find that Chinese exports to the country that imposed an antidumping duty decreased by approximately 35 percent. At the same time, an antidumping duty used by the importing country that was directed towards other countries but not against China led to an approximate 30‐percent increase in China's exports to the policy‐imposing country. These results remain robust across various specifications. Our findings have important policy implications. In particular, the magnitude of these effects highlights why it is important to curb the recent widespread use of these barriers.     

金融危机下广西对外贸易与产业结构关系的实证研究

文章认为,广西对外贸易结构与产业结构之间具有很强的相关关系。广西的产业结构不合理,进而影响对外贸易结构的优化,高新技术产业发展对广西产业结构的升级具有重要影响。文章提出了加快三次产业结构调整、承接广东产业转移、大力发展高新技术产品贸易、加强广西对外贸易人才队伍建设等在金融危机下促进广西对外贸易又好又快发展的对策建议。     

发达国家反金融危机措施比较及中国未来政策取向

文章比较分析了美国、西欧国家和日本的反金融危机措施,并对发达国家的反危机措施进行简要评价,最后,总结了中国的反危机措施,认为中国政府经济刺激政策已经见效,但仍有诸多不稳定因素。实现中国经济可持续增长,要以危机为契机,推进各项改革,通过制度创新释放经济活力,加大科技教育投入,使科技创新成为中国经济增长的新引擎。     

The Global Financial Crisis Revisited: Competition and Regulation

Abstract

Using data of the systematic banking crises from 1981 to 2008, we examine how competition and regulation are related to the crises. We find that countries with higher concentration and/or higher market power of the banking industry are less prone to crises. Further, they are more likely to have weathered the 2008 global financial crisis. However, regulatory and institutional factors play little role and the estimation results are shown to be sensitive to measures of the degree of competition or severity of the crisis, as well as the coverage of the crises.     

Bank Income Diversification,Asset Correlation and Systemic Risk

This paper explores whether the asset correlations among the non-interest activities of banks are the key causes for enhancing the bank diversification-systemic risk nexus. Our empirical evidence indicates that banks' income diversification significantly raises systemic risk. After removing those banks with high asset correlations, the effect of individual banks' diversification on banking systemic risk turns insignificant or even inverse. The results show that high asset correlations among banks could introduce bank failures, thereby leading to higher systemic risk in the financial sector.     

Vertical Specialization and Trade Growth in Northeast Asia

As the global economy has become further integrated, the international production chain has become more sophisticated, with diversified stages of production located in different countries. Economic theorists have argued that the fragmentation of the global production chain is partly attributable to the high growth in international trade over the past several decades. In this study, we examine vertical specialization in China, Japan and Korea, and its contribution to these nations' trade. Using a multilevel model, it is illustrated that vertical specialization has encouraged increases in trade among all three countries. In particular, China's outcome is remarkable considering how recently it became a member of the WTO.     

从全球金融危机看中国个人与社会关系伦理之维

全球金融危机对我国传统粗放型经济发展模式提出了严峻挑战,而这一挑战的应对,最终要落实到当下中国个人与社会关系的重新思考与科学定位,因为,任何经济发展模式本质都是由一定的人与社会关系所支撑的。文章以伦理学为研究视角,回顾了支撑现当代中、西方经济发展模式的个人与社会关系伦理架构,进而铺陈了当代中国在这一问题研究中的基本路向,这对消解当下金融危机带来的负面影响具有一定积极意义。     

Study of the Measurement and Determinants of Intra‐industry Trade in East Asia*

The present paper investigates the development of intra‐industry trade (IIT) among the East Asian economies over the 1970–1996 period. A dynamic index is used to capture the changes in the structure of trade flows. Based on this approach, IIT is decomposed into horizontal (HIIT) and vertical components (VIIT) and the determinants of each are investigated. The results show that both HIIT and VIIT have exhibited increased importance over the sample period in manufacturing. Using pooled panel data the two‐way trade in all measures of IIT is found to be positively related to the country‐specific variables, such as the market size, exhange rate depreciation, the levels of development and income, and negatively to the geographic proximity of the partners. Economies of scale are seen to have a positive influence on IIT and HIIT, but a negative relationship with VIIT. Although the relative openness of a country's trade regime shows no significant relationship with any form of IIT, a trade imbalance does affect IIT and HIIT flows. The findings have implications for assessing the structural adjustment costs associated with the trade liberalization process as HIIT is associated with demand for variety and relates to two‐way trade in goods of similar quality, while VIIT is driven by international specialization and differences in relative factor endowments.     

中泰水果贸易结构变动研究

以2006-2018年期间中泰水果贸易数据为基础,运用GL指数、B指数测算中泰水果产业内贸易水平和贸易结构。结果表明：中泰水果贸易总额持续扩大,整体水果以产业内贸易为主,产业内贸易规模稳定增长,各类水果以产业间贸易为主,0810、0805产业内贸易规模较大。中泰水果贸易集中度较高,中国对泰国出口水果集中在0808、0805类,泰国对中国出口水果集中在0810、0804类。     

Expanding the Division of Labour: Trade Costs and Supply Chains in the Global Economy

In the pre-1914 globalisation reduction in trade costs allowed finer specialisation. The quantitative evidence is strong for some components of trade costs, but less so for aggregate trade costs. In the second globalisation, international supply chains have become an important element of the global economy, and we have better data to examine the links between trade costs and supply chains. After a brief review of the standard account of the evolution of supply chains, the article examines the quantitative evidence; regional value chains (RVCs) are especially strong, but the origins and nature of RVCs differ in Europe, the Americas and Asia. The paper then presents evidence on trade costs, focusing on the years since 1990 when both data and computing facilities became more comprehensive, and analyses the relationship between trade costs and supply chains.     

金融危机对我国外贸的影响与对策

在全球性金融危机的影响下,我国的对外贸易形势严峻。如何优化出口产品结构、防范汇率波动风险、推进出口市场多元化、加大国家对出口的政策扶持力度等已成为当务之急,需采取一系列相应对策。     

金融危机下农民工返乡创业问题研究——以重庆市为例

全球金融危机,使得我国约2000万农民工失业。农民工返乡创业是一个解决农民工就业问题的好办法。政府引导农民工创业应本着实事求是的态度,“鼓励”而不“鼓动”;应注意创业培训的针对性、实效性;应长期重视农民工创业,防止新创企业短期内倒闭。农民工创业要充分调研市场,防范市场风险;慎重选择项目,要有明确的盈利模式;要量力而行,争取家庭的支持。     

金融危机下我国煤炭定价机制的思考

煤炭是我国目前的主要能源,煤炭行业也是我国的支柱产业,煤炭的价格走向牵动各方的利益,煤炭的定价机制也受到各方关注。在金融危机的背景下,探讨我国煤炭行业的定价机制的改革,抓住机遇,实施改革,理顺煤炭的定价机制,以促进煤炭及相关行业又好又快发展。文章分析当前我国煤炭定价机制存在的不足,结合国外主要产煤国的先进理念,提出我国煤炭定价机制改革的建议。     

Performance of Domestic and Foreign Banks: The Case of Korea and the Asian Financial Crisis

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of banks, domestic and foreign, in Korea before and after the Asian financial crisis, examining how the profitability of those banks differed and identifying factors that explain why those differences existed. The performance of Korean banks deteriorated dramatically in 1998 with most banks recovering somewhat in 1999. Foreign banks did not experience the same negative effect on their performance as a rule. Overall, the domestic Korean banks suffered more severely from the Asian financial crisis than foreign banks. Several possible explanations exist. First, foreign banks, unlike domestic Korean banks, were not subject to credit allocation directives from the Korean government to selected, favoured industries. Second, foreign banks, since they relied for governance on the mother bank in the home country, achieved higher efficiency and better asset and liability management. Finally, foreign banks rely more heavily on fee-for-service income rather than loan revenue.     

Manufacturing Sector Growth: A Case Study of Singapore

Abstract

This paper attempts to highlight some of the challenges faced by the Singaporean economy in general and the manufacturing sector in particular. Statistical analysis is used to demonstrate the role of human capital and foreign investment on manufacturing output for the period 1980–2004. The paper shows that a long-run relationship exists among the real manufacturing output per-unit of employment, real foreign investment per-unit of employment and real human capital per-unit of employment. The paper also provides time series forecasts for the growth rates of real output, productivity and investment in Singaporean manufacturing sector.