HOW CONSERVATIVE DOES THE CENTRAL BANKER HAVE TO BE? ON THE TREATMENT OF EXPECTATIONS UNDER DISCRETIONARY POLICYMAKING

This paper explores an issue that arises in the delegation process. The paper shows that a myopic central banker, one who treats expectations as constant in setting discretionary policy, can replicate the behaviour of output and inflation under policy from a timeless perspective. For that to happen, society must delegate a price level target or a speed limit policy to a central banker who is more weight-conservative than society.     

TO REGULATE OR TO DEREGULATE? THE ROLE OF DOWNSTREAM COMPETITION IN UPSTREAM MONOPOLY VERTICALLY LINKED MARKETS

This paper attempts to cast light to the effect of monopoly regulation in Cournot markets compared to its effect in Bertrand markets. To this purpose, we use a simple model of a vertically linked market, where an upstream regulated natural monopoly is trading via two‐part tariff contracts with a downstream duopoly. Combining our results to those of the existing literature on deregulated markets, we argue that when the downstream competition is in prices, efficiency dictates regulating the monopoly with a marginal cost based pricing scheme. However, this type of regulation leads to significant welfare loss, when the downstream market is characterized by Cournot competition.     

DOES ADVERTISING MATTER? ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF CIGARETTE ADVERTISING ON SMOKING AMONG YOUTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the impact of cigarette advertising on smoking among youth in developing countries. Using micro‐level data from 19 developing countries, we examine the structural relationship between smoking behavior and advertising exposure and the reduced‐form relationship between smoking and advertising bans. Instrumental variables are used to address the endogeneity of advertising exposure. Country‐specific unobserved heterogeneity is further reduced by controlling for measures of antismoking sentiment and cigarette prices. After accounting for the endogeneity of advertising, we find that the positive correlation between smoking and advertising exposure in our sample can be largely explained by the disproportionately higher propensity of smokers to observe advertising rather than a direct causal effect of advertising on smoking. (JEL I12, I18)     

HOW GREEN IS YOUR CAMPUS? AN ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS THAT DRIVE UNIVERSITIES TO EMBRACE SUSTAINABILITY

I examine the factors that influence the adoption of sustainable practices by institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the United States. Using data from the Sustainable Endowments Institute, I conduct an ordered probit analysis on 180 IHEs. The results show that size and wealth are significant factors in the adoption of sustainable practices and that stakeholders such as faculty, alumni, and the surrounding community also play an important role. I find no evidence that institutions adopt sustainability to attract students. Also, in contrast to the findings of similar studies on for‐profit entities, there is no evidence that regulatory pressures encourage campus sustainability. I also examine the factors that affect the institutions' decision to sign the Presidents Climate Commitment (PCC), a largely symbolic gesture. The results for the PCC are quite different than those for overall sustainability. Most importantly, neither wealth nor size are significant factors in that decision. (JEL Q2, L3)     

HOW WELL DID SOCIAL SECURITY MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF THE GREAT RECESSION?

Using a computational life cycle model, this article assesses how Social Security affects the welfare of different types of individuals during the Great Recession. Overall, we find that Social Security reduces the average welfare losses for agents alive at the time of the Great Recession by the equivalent of 1.4% of expected future lifetime consumption. Moreover, we show that although the program mitigates some of the welfare losses for most agents, it is particularly effective at mitigating the losses for agents who are poorer and/or older at the time of the shock.     

HOW DO SPATIAL SPILLOVERS DIFFUSE IN SCIENCE–INDUSTRY INTERACTIONS? THE CASE OF FRENCH BIOTECH SECTOR

The objective of this article is to study the interactions that exist between public research and private research in the French biotechnology sector. These interactions are observable at a double level. On the one hand, public research can influence private research, and conversely. Researchers of these two spheres develop important relations of cooperation. We then seek to identify these mutual influences and to measure their spatial dimension. Using asymptotic least squares method, we show that spillovers can diffuse through cooperation in upstream and downstream phases of the innovation process. On the other hand, spillovers resulting from public or private research, when measured by an external stock of knowledge, would be located, in so far as they exist.     

HOW DO HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES IN JAPAN COMPETE FOR REGULAR,FULL‐TIME JOBS? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED UPON AN INTERNET SURVEY OF THE YOUTH*

We use a survey of Japanese youth within 10 years after high school graduation to investigate impacts of academic and social skills on their success in the job market. We find three major factors account for the job market outcome immediately after school: school characteristics and job‐placement services, academic performance, and social skills, including negative impacts of problematic behaviors at school. Second, when we run a probit regression on whether or not the surveyed individuals hold regular, full‐time jobs, we find the persistent but declining (over age) impact of the job placement immediately after school. Moreover, we find that the impact of variables pertaining to social skills remain significant even after controlling for the job‐placement outcome after school, whereas other variables, such as grade point average or attributes of high schools, are largely irrelevant to the current employment status.     

HOW DID THE ASIAN STOCK MARKETS REACT TO BANK MERGERS AFTER THE 1997 FINANCIAL CRISIS?

Abstract.  The objective of this paper is to empirically assess the stock market reaction to the announcement of bank mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in eight East Asian countries over the 1997–2003 period. M&As are classified according to the status of entity, the time period of the deal and the maturity of the banking system. A bivariate GARCH model is used to estimate abnormal returns taking beta conditional variability into account. We find that the market reacted negatively to M&As during the crisis period (1997–2000) and also in the less mature banking systems (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand).     

ISLAMISTIC TERROR AND THE LABOUR MARKET PROSPECTS OF ARAB MEN IN ENGLAND: DOES A COUNTRY'S DIRECT INVOLVEMENT MATTER?

This paper considers two questions on the labour market discrimination against Arab or Muslim men after the recent terrorist attacks. First, I consider for the first time the impact of the September 11 attacks on the wages and working hours of Arabs in Europe. Second, I test whether the fact that a country was the direct target of terrorist attacks influences discrimination using the Madrid train bombings on 11 March 2004 and the London bombings on 7 July 2005 as quasi‐experimental events. The results indicate that the wages, hours worked and employment probabilities of Arab men were unchanged by the attacks.     

HOW BIASED ARE MEASURES OF CYCLICAL MOVEMENTS IN PRODUCTIVITY AND HOURS?

The movement of hours worked over the business cycle is an important input into the estimation of many key parameters in macroeconomics. Unfortunately, the available data on hours do not correspond precisely to the concept required for accurate inference. We study one source of mismeasurement—that the most commonly used source data measure hours paid instead of hours worked. In particular, we focus our attention on salaried workers, a group for whom the gap between hours paid and hours worked is likely to be large. We show that the measurement gap varies significantly and positively with changes in labor demand. As a result, we estimate that the standard deviations of the workweek and of total hours worked are 27 and 5 percent larger, respectively, than published measures of hours suggest. We also find that this measurement gap is unlikely to be the source of the acceleration in published measures of productivity in the early 2000s.     

DOES APPRECIATION OF THE RENMINBI DECREASE IMPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES FROM CHINA?

In 2005, China abated its fixed exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and began to appreciate the Renminbi (RMB). In this paper, I explore the effect of the appreciation of the RMB on imports to the United States from China by augmenting the gravity model with the exchange rate. Using an industrial panel data set during the period 2002–2008 and controlling for the endogeneity of the bilateral exchange rate, this extensive empirical analysis suggests that the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar significantly reduced imports to the United States from China. This finding is robust to a variety of econometric methods and to coverage in different periods. (JEL F1, F2)     

TO LIST OR TO MERGE? ENDOGENOUS CHOICE OF PRIVATIZATION METHODS IN A MIXED MARKET

When and how to privatize a public firm? This paper suggests that a welfare‐enhancing privatization may be triggered by a negative demand shock. When the shock is relatively mild, it is optimal to privatize a public firm by means of stock market listings; when the shock is sufficiently large, a public–private‐firm merger becomes optimal. This paper also considers a government that cares about privatization revenues and about social welfare. It characterizes how the weight attached to privatization revenues and the improvement in production efficiency of the privatized public firm through a stock market listing may affect the government's choices concerning privatization.     

SOCIAL INVESTMENT IN SPAIN: HOW DO SOLIDARITY MUTUAL FUNDS DECIDE THE ALLOCATION OF SOLIDARITY FUNDING BETWEEN SOCIAL ECONOMY ORGANIZATIONS?

Solidarity mutual funds (SMFs) are a financial product oriented toward funding social economy organizations (SEOs). The main characteristic of these mutual funds, known in other countries as social investment, is that part of their management fees is allocated to support SEOs. In Spain, the criteria used in the allocation process of these funds have not been studied. The aim of this paper is to analyze the decision model of SMFs. To this end, we developed a logit regression model. The obtained results show that the decision model of SMFs promotes the development of commercial activity and favors a specific ideology and values and an exclusive relationship with the main funders.     

HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?

Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co‐movement of business cycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.     

WHAT DRIVES EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS? THE ROLE OF FDI IN CHINESE MANUFACTURING

Export competitiveness (XC) is a country's ability to compete globally through expanding export capacity and upgrading export sophistication. How does foreign direct investment (FDI) affect XC? This article studies the issue based on evidence from Chinese manufacturing. Using data on 21 manufacturing sectors for 31 regions over 2005–2011, we construct the XC index and its three composite indicators, following the Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) and United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). Four findings emerge from the estimates: (a) FDI is a key driver of China's export success; (b) China's absorptive capacity reinforces the effects of FDI through domestic learning efforts; (c) FDI seems to contribute more to export capacity than export upgrading, especially in labor‐intensive/low‐tech products; and (d) high‐tech FDI from the western world seems to be more conducive to export upgrading than low‐tech FDI from developing economies. (JEL F21, F23, O14, O53)     

WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING TO AGGREGATE CONCENTRATION IN THE U.S. ECONOMY IN THE TWENTY‐FIRST CENTURY?

This paper extends earlier data series on aggregate concentration in the U.S. economy—the percentage of aggregate economic activity that could be attributed to the largest “X” companies—into the first two decades of the twenty‐first century. We find that there has been a moderate but continued increase in aggregate concentration since the mid‐1990s. This increase appears in data on employment and payrolls that have been compiled by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as employment and profits data that are drawn from the annual “Fortune 500” lists. This increase does not, however, appear to have raised aggregate concentration above the levels of the early 1980s. (JEL L10, L11, L19)     

EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?*

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right‐side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. An empirical application to the Nasdaq stock price index in the 1990s provides confirmation of explosiveness and date stamps the origination of financial exuberance to mid‐1995, prior to the famous remark in December 1996 by Alan Greenspan about irrational exuberance in the financial market, thereby giving the remark empirical content.

相似文献   

DOES SIZE MATTER? THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN GERMANY

Income inequality in Germany has been continually increasing during the past 20 years. One cause of this development, among others, could be structural shifts in household formation due to long‐term societal trends. These affect per capita incomes, which has repercussions for the income distribution even if wages remain constant. The aim of this paper is to quantify the proportion of changing household structures in the increase in inequality. We find that the growth of the income gap in Germany (for both East and West from 1991 to 2007) is indeed strongly related to changes in household structure and employment behavior, and a large part of this increase is compensated by the welfare state.     

COLLECTIVE KNOWLEDGE,PROLIFIC INVENTORS AND THE VALUE OF INVENTIONS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF FRENCH,GERMAN AND BRITISH PATENTS IN THE US, 1975–1999

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to test two related hypotheses: The first is that the involvement of both prolific and foreign inventors in the production of knowledge has a direct, positive impact on the collective dimension of this knowledge production as measured by the size of the inventive team. The second is that the involvement of both prolific and foreign inventors has a direct, positive impact on the value of the new knowledge produced. We use detailed information from nearly 300,000 patents granted by the US Patent Office to French, German, and British inventors over the period from 1975 to 1999. From the data available from each patent regarding citations of prior patents and the numbers and identities of the inventors listed in the patent application, we are able to construct measures of collective knowledge, the presence of prolific and foreign inventors, and the imputed value of patents. In a novel approach in this literature, we estimate negative binomial multiple regression models for determining both the size of the collective dimension and the value of the patents. After controlling for the effects of years, technological fields, and patenting country, we find a strong support for the hypothesis that both prolific and foreign inventors tend to be parts of larger teams of inventors and for the hypothesis that prolific and foreign inventors tend to produce inventions having more value. In the conclusion, we draw some implications from these results for knowledge governance.     

HOW DO JAPANESE HEALTH INSURANCE SOCIETIES FINANCE THEIR CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE HEALTH SERVICE SYSTEMS FOR THE ELDERLY?*

We examine how Japanese health insurance societies finance (or distribute) the costs (or cost savings) from an increase (or decrease) in contributions to the Health Service Systems for the Elderly. Three ways are possible: (i) adjusting the premiums of the employee or employer; (ii) providing an optional benefit; and (iii) adjusting reserves by the change in contribution. We find that more than six‐sevenths of the changes are associated with changes in reserves, followed by premiums, and finally optional benefits. The increase in the premium mostly shifted to employees, while employees enjoyed a nearly 60% decrease in total premium.